分享锦集财经评论 2012-06-10 13:05
老子说“天下皆知美之为美,斯恶矣;皆知善之为善,斯不善矣”。(天下的人都知道怎样算是美,这样就有了丑;都知道怎么样算是善,这样就有了不善——傅佩荣“细说老子”)。
每当我读老子此言时,都很有感触。
是的,当所有的人都认为一只股票是“好”股时,这股可能不迎合投资;当所有的人都认为一只股票是“坏”股时,这股反而可能值得投资。
试想一想,当所有的投资者都认识此股时,表示这股一定作了大量的宣传,把它的价值都抖出来,摊开来给所有的人知道,于是人人争相购买,此股的价值已全部反映在股价上,你还能得到什么呢?
被分析家大力推荐的热门股,股价表现多数平平,道理很简单。当所有人都认为这股是好股,所有人都买够了,都在等待股价上升抛售,还有谁来“接”买呢?
采反向策略
相反的,若人人都看不起的股票,一向默默无闻,像埋在地底的番薯,早已长到硕大无比,却深埋不露,除非有心人勤于挖掘,无人知道有这地下宝。有许多公司,无论是在盈利或资产上都很结实,因不注重宣传,价值往往被严重低估,买进作长期投资,可获厚利。
所以,要在股市获取厚利,一定要采反向策略,别人不看或看不起的股票,你更要看,而且认真及深入地看。
我主张买第二线优质股,——符合五个条件的优质股。于是大家都到平坦无草的园地上去找,然而,这些园地里的番薯,还没长到拳头般大已被人挖掘殆尽了,那还有大番薯?
如果大家把眼光望远一点,脚步走远一些,到那人迹罕至的、野草丛生,而且凹凸不平的荒原上去走一遭,也许可以有意想不到的收获,无意间找到像椰子般大的大番薯。
几乎所有的人都到主板去找第二线优质股,对创业板连正眼也不看一下,因为那似乎不是可以找到大番薯的地点。
禾秆盖珍珠
其实,若能抛开偏见,到人迹罕见的股市原始地——创业板走一回,你会发现这里竟也可以找到素质甚至胜过主板的股票。
虽然体型没主板番薯那么硕大,但肉质肯定比一些主板番薯更甜美。
长征控股(SCC,0158,创业板),就是这样的一只股票。
自2010年8月3日在创业板(ACE)上市,至今已整整22个月,相信大部分投资者都不曾注意到有这么一只股票存在,更不要说了解该公司的实况和产品了。难怪该公司的股价始终无法突破78仙的上市价。
不过,假如你细读该公司的招股说明书,每季的季报,以及2010及2011年的年报的话,你会发现以下事实:
●该公司曾连续两年夺得《南洋商报》的金牛奖,这是对该公司素质的肯定。
●该公司虽然列为创业板,却已40岁,走过几番狂风暴雨,不但屹立不倒,而且活得更硬朗。
●在今年3月31日本财务年首季结束时,以2100多万的资本,银行有2100万的存款,没欠银行一分钱,有几家主板公司能做到?
●今年派息6.5仙(免税)(除权日:6月28日;派发日:7月16日),去年为4仙(免税)。
●该公司坚持“良知赚钱”的经营原则,三创办人以保护人们健康为己任,要人们健康,首先要确保人们所吃的是健康的肉类——鸡肉、猪肉,不含有有害人们健康的饲料添加剂,尤其是抗生素。
所以,二十多年来,该公司不遗余力地推广净化饲料方案,致力教育鸡农、猪农,采用非抗生素的饲料添加剂,以生产干净的肉,使人们吃得健康。这种通过推广动物保健品而达到保护人们健康的目的,是很崇高的经营理念。
该公司也经营餐饮设备业务,提倡及促进新饮食文化。
从经营理念的角度看,该公司所从事的是利惠众生的绿色革命。从营业策略的角度看,该公司所采取的是蓝海战略。
优质股5条件
该公司符合第二线优质股的五个条件:
①合理的盈利:每股净赚12仙。
②合理的股息:今年派发6.5仙免税股息,等于净利的53%,超过招股说明书所应允的35%。由于公司现金充沛,资本开支不大,故有能力保持今年的股息;以目前75仙的股价计算,周息率高达8.6%,比银行定期存款高一倍半。
③稳定的现金流量,财务稳固。
④以75仙的股价,每股净利12仙,本益比仅为6.25倍。
⑤适度的成长:锁定2018年品牌走向世界。
投资策略:长期持有,贴身跟踪该公司的业绩进展及投资动向。
长征控股(SCC)一瞥
创业年份:1972(长征40年)
实收资本:RM21,378,500
每股面值:RM0.50
股票总数:42,757,000股
上市日期:3.8.2010
每股净有形资产价值:RM0.80(31.3.2012)
营业量:RM35,883,000(2011)
净利:RM5,211,000
每股净利:RM0.12
每股股息:6.5仙(2011)(免税)
银行存款:RM20,996,000(31.3.2012)
负债:0
业务:动物保健品及餐饮设备器材
长征目标:2018年品牌走向世界
经营哲理:绿色革命,利惠众生
创办人及老战友:徐惠生、徐秀生、吴庆晶
资料来源:招股说明书、年报、季报
【声明】
本文志在增加投资大众对上市公司的认识,并非推荐买进,笔者可能拥有或未拥有此股。
冷眼专栏3天前已刊登于《南洋商报》。敬请订阅《南洋商报》,以利掌握先机。
冷眼 股市基本面大师
Created by Tan KW | Nov 29, 2024
Created by Tan KW | Nov 29, 2024
Created by Tan KW | Nov 29, 2024
Created by Tan KW | Nov 29, 2024
Created by Tan KW | Nov 29, 2024
Created by Tan KW | Nov 29, 2024
SHCHAN - when he commented in March 2012, it was 80 sen. Since then, has been always RM1.00 and above, 52-w high 1.43.
Not really a bad comment. CPO price is up and down.
2012-06-12 10:51
He always encourage us to hold for long term ( min 3yrs ).Try to check back what counters he had mentioned 1 or 2 yeasr ago.
2012-06-12 12:52
Look back the articles he had published on Dec 9th 2011( RSAWIT),Nov 18th 2011( KFIMA), and Sep 30th 2011( DKSH )and many others,u can able to see the good results laa.
2012-06-12 13:32
we need to see the difference between trading and investment. investment is for dividend plus capital gain. the holding period is longer ( eg. maybe 1-2 years)
trading is more flip over stuffs. take profit as and when opportunities arises. remember the mantra . let your profit runs and cut your losses short.
there is big differnece bewteen funds investings and our own money. they have deep pockets and they can average and choose many counters. whereas (my) bullets are limited.
2012-06-12 14:42
when he mentioned century he didn't take into consideration the dilution effect of the warrants
2012-06-12 15:08
99.99% of the fund managers dare not touch on the second board counters,so SCC hard to go up fast.
2012-06-12 21:10
He used to mention IVORY in one of his articles last year (but not so obvious). It was around rm 1.00. He got 800k shares (you can see his name (Fong Siling) in the annual report 2010).
Recently, IVORY has gone down to around rm 0.50. I checked the recent published annual report 2011 for IVORY. He has increased to 4.5 mil from 800k shares and 2 mil warrants.
He is so confident on this stock and has invested additional at least 1 million from his pocket.
obviously, this is for long term. imaging when the price go back to rm 1. sometimes, we must be patient.
he also mentioned in his book, when you decide to buy a stock. make sure you are more than happy to buy more when the stock price goes down. feel like Jusco sell.
anyway, this is just my opinion.
2012-06-12 21:47
Fat Cat Tim Buddy
this cold eye article very contradiction , he use to said good company should be in main board , so he only choose stock in main board.
some of the stock he recommend also not good, like century, and shchan, he use the Peak price of CPO to calculate the value of shchan, now CPO drop to 3k..
2012-06-12 10:30