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[转帖] 你想和上帝賭一把嗎?
有一天，一個專業的賭徒遇到了上帝...
他希望能和上帝來場賭局。
「我有無限多的金錢。」上帝說著。
「無論多久我都能和您賭下去，您可以帶走所有您贏到的金錢。」
「我只有一個要求，我們賭擲銅板，由您選擇正反面。」
「選對了便可以從我這拿走一枚金幣，反之我要拿走您一枚金幣。」
「如同人生一樣，您的人生，您自己選擇。」
上帝笑著說完，便把銅板交給賭徒。
接過銅板，賭徒憑著過往的經驗，便立即察覺 銅板反面的重量比正面稍重，
因此銅板較容易出現正面。
長期而言，正面出現的次數會高於反面，較有長期優勢。
因此，賭徒二話不說，掏出身上20枚金幣，心中暗自竊喜。
心想贏定了。
沒想到開始不到半刻鐘，
賭徒已經把20枚金幣便已經輸個精光。
「應該只是運氣不好吧！」
賭徒不甘心，又帶了100枚金幣來比試，
但過了一整天後卻仍輸個精光。
賭徒百思不得其解，他明明已經占盡優勢，為何還會失敗?
他懇請上帝告訴他原因。
上帝回答道：
「我會贏，只是因為我有 無限的資本。」
「因此，如果時間夠長，輸光所有的錢會先發生在您身上。」
「而不是先發生在我身上。」
賭徒恍然大悟，
原來他窮極一生 追求技巧，尋找賭局中的些微優勢，
竟然沒有準備 充足的資金來得重要！
「因此，如果您身上帶的是一萬枚金幣，那贏的想必就會是您了。」
上帝說完便不見蹤影。
一旦賭局無法再繼續下去，擁有再大的優勢也沒有意義
一枚較容易出現正面的銅板，
若擲銅板1000次，最後結果可能是正面出現550次，反面出現450次，
1000次下來，賭徒可以賺到100枚金幣，
對賭徒十分有利。
但要是450次的反面，在一開始就 連續的出現，
在還沒擲到1000次之前，
僅有100枚金幣的賭徒便會先破產。
在投資中，也常常看見這類的例子，
老一輩常說：「不要融資買股票。」
這是有原因的，
透過融資買進股票，卻遇上大跌而斷頭，
當股價恢復甚至大漲時，已經無福消受。
賭徒擁有運氣與勇氣，但卻沒有充足的資本實現獲利。
事實上，當資本不足時，即使有任何長期優勢都難以發揮。
市場就像是個金錢無限的上帝，投資就如同和上帝賭擲銅板，
永遠必須準備足夠的資本，才有可能真正實現長期的獲利喔！
「那些沒有消滅你的東西，會使你更加強壯。」－尼采
準備多少的資金才足夠，是投資人必修的問題！
尤其缺少投資經驗，在實際投入資金時，往往會有更多壓力與猶豫。
要克服這些問題，除了實際在市場中累積經驗，
也可以利用免費的即時虛擬股市 股市大富翁 ，進行虛擬投資練習，
藉由一段時間的模擬操作，可以測試投資方法的成效，
也了解自己的投資個性，並鍛鍊自己控制資金的能力！
http://www.cmoney.tw/notes/note-detail.aspx?cid=22814&nid=7046
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 5 of 5 comments
connie : lately I saw you very active in 932kaki. inwest88 is an experience good guy, you are lucky to have him there. Good luck.
2013-11-24 17:12
oh yes bsngpg...those in 932kaki are a lucky bunch. all sifus there are nice ! if u have some free time, ps drop by :)
2013-11-24 17:19
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
bsngpg
This is the cruel fact, the rich will become richer. You can earn and brag for today's victory. Once the Big Bear massacres, you will be stuck with no fund. Without new fund, you basically cannot do anything except drooling slaver while seeing all high quality counters on fire sale.
Those rich men and ladies, can keep on buying at lower and lowest prices as they wish. Accumulation during the fire sale will push their wealth to the new height when the Bull returns. I am fortunate to make a bit of fortune here as at my current age, I can allocate bigger portion of salary as a new fund for high quality counters during fire sale.
So to those young working people, please take clue from this story, not to put in too much of your money into the hot market. Reserve fund for big Bear. You will love Bear, just like me.
2013-11-24 17:01