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[转帖] 斤经济较:什么止损点?我是长期投资者!- 夜月

Tan KW
Publish date: Wed, 28 May 2014, 01:20 PM
Tan KW
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Good.

 

Tuesday, 27 May 2014 


 
 
有很多投资者会有这个困惑,
本身的投资方式是长期的话,
还需要设止损点吗?
止损点只是属于短期投资者吗?
在回答这个问题之前,
我们先来看看止损点的功能在哪里。
 
其实止损点就是将限制设在买入价以下的某巴仙(比如10%
当股价跌破止损点时,
就强制性卖出股票,
以保护资本。
而长期投资者觉得不需要设止损点的主要原因是,
因为他们注重的是公司长期的发展,
短期股价的下跌不是很重要。
难道真的是这样子吗?
 
为什么股价会跌破止损点?
第一 技术性回调
股价在短期时的走势会和公司本身无关,
如果你不幸在高点买入,
一个回调可能跌破止损点。
如果是这个原因的话,
长期投资者就不需要去理会它。
 
第二 公司遇到短期不利
就算一间好的公司,
也会遇到不好的大环境。
就好像AirAsia当遇到新的竞争者加入、油价高涨时,
股价也会陷入低迷。
这时候股价也会跌破止损点。
当然长期投资者如果对公司有信心,
其实也可以不理会这个状况,
因为好的公司最终也会走出低迷。
但是这个情况设止损点,
对长期投资者来说是有利的。
因为当公司遇到短期不利,
跌势不止10%(很可能去到30-40%),
设止损点可以帮助你之后以更低的价格买入股票。
 
第三 你觉得好的公司真的是好公司吗?
长期投资者如果投资到好的公司,
在长期来看是稳赚,
但是好的公司通常都很主观。
万一投资的是不好的公司,
跌破止损点过后还继续持有,
损失就非常惨重。
 
所以设止损点对长期投资者来说,
好处其实还蛮多的。
为了避免因为技术性回调而卖出,
其实是有方法的,(那就是去学习技术分析啊^^
就是根据公司的规模设不同的止损点。
蓝筹股设10%,(因为蓝筹技术回调很少跌破10%
二三线股设15%
小型股设20%
这样就可以避免误卖好的股票。
 
当然止损点还有一个好处,
就是可以很快地逃离熊市。
在熊市里,
一家好的公司亦可能跌至原本股的20-30%
那时可能就要等多7-8年才可能回本。
 
 

http://moonitez89.blogspot.com/2014/05/blog-post_4245.html

Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 5 of 7 comments

BBB79

原來是有學問的。

2014-05-28 13:28

kcchongnz

但是这个情况设止损点,
对长期投资者来说是有利的。
因为当公司遇到短期不利,
跌势不止10%(很可能去到30-40%),
设止损点可以帮助你之后以更低的价格买入股票。

可能 is perhaps. How sure is your this perhaps? What if after you cut loss at 10%, the share price bounces back, and continues to go up? What is your loss of opportunity cost?

Won't happen? Can show some statistics?

第三 你觉得好的公司真的是好公司吗?
长期投资者如果投资到好的公司,
在长期来看是稳赚,
但是好的公司通常都很主观。
万一投资的是不好的公司,
跌破止损点过后还继续持有,
损失就非常惨重。

主观? Of course value is very personal. One can be wrong. But then why not make damn sure that your probability of right is high. Of course if eventually one is proven wrong, then have to cut loss, even at that time, the loss could be very high. What to do? It is part of the game.

所以设止损点对长期投资者来说,
好处其实还蛮多的。
为了避免因为技术性回调而卖出,
其实是有方法的,(那就是去学习技术分析啊^^)
就是根据公司的规模设不同的止损点。
蓝筹股设10%,(因为蓝筹技术回调很少跌破10%)
二三线股设15%,
小型股设20%,
这样就可以避免误卖好的股票。

This bring back the first point above, what if after cutting loss, it moves up? And why 10%, 15%, or 20%?

Actually with these types of rules learned by the retail investors, it appears to me it is easy for big sharks to make money, of course out of small retail investors.

当然止损点还有一个好处,
就是可以很快地逃离熊市。
在熊市里,
一家好的公司亦可能跌至原本股的20-30%,
那时可能就要等多7-8年才可能回本。

The same problem. And why 7-8 years? Any statistics?

2014-05-28 14:04

kcchongnz

Posted by Tan KW > May 28, 2014 02:29 PM | Report Abuse
@kcchongnz, i believe this rule shall not apply to you. but how about major retailer that not able to understand a company and do proper valuation?

Tan KW, to me it is hard to fathom that a retail investor like me can beat the market in this zero sum game with little half-baked knowledge and skill which has little logic and with a relatively powerless computer compared to what the big boys have. It is like me playing badminton with Lee Chong Wei.

Whereas investing is different. Like what Buffet said,

“You don’t need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.”

You just need a little knowledge in investing and the right mind set though.

2014-05-28 16:34

kcchongnz

見仁見智

2014-05-28 17:08

stockoperator

Between Sell and Buy whether at 20% 30% 40% drops, it makes whole lots of different in our future return. To me it is Make or Break.

TO ME This is the most critical moments in investment cycle. Our skills, mentality and belief is at this moment:

1) If i cut the loser and reinvest on Winner, can we see the difference of future return?
2) Again if I decide on Buy on Weakness/Dip, can we see the differences in future return?

We can make reference to the followings:
1) Is the Business recession proof?
2) Is the current Business/earning at the upswing?
3) How bad is the price drop for past ten years?
4) Debt level? Credit Risk? Net cash? Sensitivity to market changes?
5) Product cycle.
6) Receivable Ratio.
7) Balance Float of Share Capital.
8) High ROE or Low ROE.
9) Big Cap or Small/Medium
10)Currency Risk. Export ratio.

Well it is just a reference of opinion.

2014-05-29 19:10

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