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[转贴] 冷眼前辈已经悄悄入股的 Jtiasa! 机会来了吗? - SNOWMAN

Tan KW
Publish date: Thu, 13 Dec 2018, 10:42 AM
Tan KW
0 484,887
Good.

 

 
(Jtiasa, 4383, 主板工业股)
 
→ 业务:棕油种植业务,伐木业
→ 砂拉越最大的木商之一,拥有超过 83,000 公頃(Ha)的油棕园土地。
→ 拥有四家天然棕榈油(CPO)提炼厂
→ FFB(Fresh Fruit Branches)的年产量高达 1,782,000 公吨(MT)
截至2018财政年,冷眼前辈为30大股东之一,持股量高达一千万只:


 
 

→ 主要木材产品(timber):
1)原木,logs 
2)薄木板,veneers
3)  夹板,plywood


→ 木材(timber)出口市场:
















 
 
 
 
 
 
风险:
1)砂拉越政府近几年严厉打击非法伐木,木材贿赂交易活动,落实強制性木材合法认证系统 → 伐木活动减少 → 木材产品产量减少 → Jaya tiasa 利润减少
 
2)雨季引发木材产品产量减少
 
3)棕油供过于求,导致棕油价低迷
 
反向思考:
目前木材与棕油业的危机不可能是长期
棕油产品&木材产品是马来西亚的主要收入来源之一,
如政府长期打压伐木 或 不尽快制定方案以增加棕油出口量,
将会导致马来西亚经济进一步衰退。
 
投资者可乘危机中买入廉价但未来价值有机会复苏的 棕油股/木材股。

 

 

http://wislearninvestology.blogspot.com/2018/12/jtiasa.html

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2 people like this. Showing 14 of 14 comments

kasinathan

The average CPO price for last quarter is Rm2400/mt.....the coming quarter ending at Dec is expected to hit RM2100......

The Dec CPO already hit Rm2000... and is expected to trade below Rm2000 soon... Lacking of visibility onward..


Surely....the quarterly to be reported by February 2019 in red!

This forecast is almost guarantee!

2018-12-13 12:52

kasinathan

Falling knife will be until Feb end next year... Worse still, the research house yet to downgrade the plantation sector!

As usual... They will starting downgrade in early March 2019!

2018-12-13 12:54

kasinathan

The current weak cycle in CPO is at half journey judging from the historical pattern....

2018-12-13 13:02

kasinathan

Follow the new financial standard requirement, the company need to write one off Rm300 millions of tangleble asset or Rm0. 30 per share and subsequently Rm50 millions of biological asset per annum ....

Hence, the dropped in price doesn't mean it's cheap now!

2018-12-13 13:30

kasinathan

I am in the opinion..... It's too early to trigger the accumulation as the valuation is not cheap at all admist the dropped in price may appear to be rock bottom on surface if without going through the details...

2018-12-13 13:37

kasinathan

The similar negative factors applied to the timber sector..... Started of the new forest rectification policy imposed by the state government that hammered down the logging business, following by the reforestation requirement compliance that increases the cost substantially..... The timber segment will continue to record red in the next 2 years....

Not sure... What's other hidden negative factors yet to be quantified...

Hemmmm

2018-12-13 13:44

kasinathan

If you do you homework, there are other palm oil companies are much more attractive.....if still you insisted to jumping in now!

No other reasons... Simply because of the operating and plantation costs are much cheaper in Indonesia as against operate in Sarawak!

2018-12-13 13:52

kasinathan

He won't be regretes...he have got extremely strong holding power that can outweighs the prolong down cycle in CPO and wiped out all other weak panic investors

2018-12-13 14:00

kasinathan

That why he keep saying that invest in company must be based on long term.......

2018-12-13 14:02

kasinathan

He believes and behave like the controlling shareholder... Tan Sri Tiong &family

2018-12-13 14:03

kasinathan

I don't like this company simply I think if you can't make money during the past 3 years when CPO price were good.... It's rationale to conclude it's not going to be an easy investing and making money journey in the current weak CPO cycle!

2018-12-13 14:07

kasinathan

Enough.... Good luck... Bye bye

2018-12-13 14:08

billionn

Using cold eyes as bait again? Come on try someone else la so boring

2018-12-13 14:38

sense maker

One billion ringgit loan whale!

2018-12-13 23:46

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