NEW YORK: US employers probably tempered their hiring while wage growth moderated in June, another favourable development for Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve (Fed) colleagues seeking more confirmation that inflation is slowing.

Payrolls in the world’s largest economy are projected to have increased by about 190,000, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists ahead of Friday’s report.

That’s a step down from the surprisingly robust 272,000 gain in May. The jobless rate probably held at 4%.

Average hourly earnings are projected to have climbed 3.9% from June of last year, the smallest annual advance in three years.

Recent data, including declining vacancies and higher weekly jobless claims, underscore cooler-yet-resilient labour demand.

Having more available workers to choose from is helping companies step back from the steep pay increases that had been a source of inflationary pressures over the past few years.

The closely-watched jobs report will surface days after today’s panel in Portugal that includes Fed chairman Powell.

Investors will monitor his comments for clues on how soon the US central bank may start lowering interest rates.

Christine Lagarde, Powell’s eurozone counterpart, will also be on the panel at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra.

While off the boil, the US labour market remains healthy, allowing consumer spending and the broader economy to continue plugging along despite higher borrowing costs.

Another key report for the coming holiday-shortened week in the United States is expected to show a further decline in job openings, suggesting that companies are having greater success filing positions.

Openings for May are projected to have dropped below eight million for the first time since early 2021.

“We’ve been expecting to see growing signs that monetary policy, with its long lags, was impacting the economy,” Bloomberg Economics said.

“The coming week’s data should provide more evidence.

“In Canada, the labour force survey for June will provide insight into the job market, which has failed to keep pace with explosive population growth and yet has racked up higher-than-average wage gains.

“We’ll also get a look at the country’s international trade balance.”

Elsewhere, the second half of 2024 will kick-off with a packed week.

Chinese business survey data and eurozone inflation are among the highlights, and elections in France and the United Kingdom will also focus investors.

In Asia, this week is a big one for purchasing manager indexes (PMIs).

China’s official PMI showed factory activity contracted for a second straight month in June, signalling weakness in an area Beijing is betting on to drive the economy.

The Caixin manufacturing PMI for the country may tick lower.

The other Caixin PMIs are published later in the week, along with PMIs for Indonesia, South Korea, Myanmar, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam and Singapore.

In other data, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Tankan survey is expected to show business sentiment broadly holding steady in the second quarter, with the gauge for large service-sector firms edging lower from a three-decade high in the previous period.

Capital expenditure forecasts for this financial year are expected to rise to double digits.

Later in the week, Japan’s household spending data may show outlays perking up in May, an outcome that would keep the BoJ on track for a rate hike as early as July.

Trade data are due in Australia and South Korea, while inflation reports are scheduled for South Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan, Thailand, Taiwan and the Philippines.

Among central banks, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting will draw a lot of attention today after governor Michele Bullock said the board considered a rate hike at that gathering.

In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, politics will dominate the region. Crucial elections in the United Kingdom and France are set to herald new governments and potentially shift the tone for economic policy in each country.

 - Bloomberg