Koon Yew Yin's Blog
V.S. Industry - Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Sun, 22 Feb 2015, 12:01 PM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
Quarter ending Oct 14 EPS 18sen Revenue Rm 544 million compare Rm 437 million previous year
Quarter ending July 14 EPS 20 sen Revenue Rm 534 million compare Rm 359 million previous year
Quarter ending April 14 EPS 2.11 sen Revenue Rm 375 million compare Rm 242 million previous year.
The reason for the huge jump in EPS for Q ending July 14 is because VS has a big contract to supply its product to Keurig Coffee, the famous brand of coffee machine in USA. You can google to see its website.
As a business man, I believe VS’ contract with Keurig will be for long term and VS can continue to make increasing more profit. Its annual EPS should be about 18X4= 72 sens. That is why the price is shooting up like a rocket.
It can easily reach Rm 7 at a P/E of 10, bearing in mind that MPI is selling at P/E about 20 and its revenue is about Rm 340 million per Quarter which is much lower than VS’ Rm 544 million.
I am obliged to tell you that my wife and I have bought about 15 million shares in the last few weeks as soon as I saw the jump in EPS. I cannot be responsible for pushing up the price because the daily transaction is usually more than 2 million shares.
Koon Yew Yin
21st Feb 2015
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Discussions
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Thanks to murali for digging out old post.
If you pay attention to how Cold Eye and KYY justify their purchase of plantation stock few years ago, one yardstick they like to use is [Enterprise Value]/Plantation Size. The problem of this valuation method is that you tends to select company that has large plantation size and yet not really performing in terms of earnings, or a company that is sitting on large amount of asset but has no idea how to unlock the asset and turn it into revenue/profit. Some people call this a value trap. I am not sure if it was because of they old age they like assets which is very tangible rather than earnings which is rather nebulous. When you bought a value trap, your potential return could be high, but the time line could be infinite.
When I first saw KYY mention rsawit [and if I recall correctly, he miscalculate the PE], I was really excited because I thought that I missed a gem. After going through the reports, I decide to stay away because I like earnings, I like growth, I dislike asset unless it is in CASH form. I would rather stick with FIMACOR and MKH then.
I am really surprised to read that KYY mention that stock is a zero sum game. This is a very clear hint of his trading mentality. He is definitely different from Cold Eye.
2015-02-24 11:31
Focus on the company's biz model lah..if its biz model can continue to empower the company to generate good and increasing future free cashflows, increasing positive EPS,increasing EPS growth, PE < 10 then invest lah.
2015-02-24 11:47
People who do not work, lepak or do not like to work... earn no money but depend on hand outs
People who daily work hard with their hands in this world earn small money
People who daily work with brain power earn good money
People with capital who analyses, filter and invest wisely will earn big money
2015-02-24 12:02
People who likes to spin for days on ends will end up with big headache
Drink filtered water and Take panadol..hahahahaha
2015-02-24 12:06
Spinners will forever end up with big headache. Drink filtered water and take panadol..hahahahaha
2015-02-24 12:16
Taking panadol and drinking filtered water will clear big headache ..erm... unfortunately it will not cure those with brain damage already in ICU or going into ICU....hahahahaha
2015-02-24 12:25
Noble intention to remind newbies not to buy VS and Latitud. KYY is desperate to unload millions
2015-02-24 13:50
People with capital who analyses, filter and invest wisely will earn big money/
Good one.
2015-02-24 13:58
We treat investing like a popularity contest, online forum, financial media and social media make it easier for investors to share portfolio ideas. These contribute to a herd mentality in investing.
Herd investing can lead to poor returns. You may have a situation like the blind leading the blind. Unfortunately, retail investors are very emotional with their money. They will buy when stock prices are on the way up and dumped on the way down.
When someone posted an unrealistic return of a particular stock, always remember there is no such thing as guarantee profit.
Study the reputation of the business. Invest in companies which have with proven capability to generate sustainable earning growth with a right mixed of debt/equity structure. EVA should be positive in the long run.
The business must have the ability to generate positive free cash flow. Normally, companies which are light in assets have a better chance of achieving this. Those need high capex to generate growth, their earning will be impacted by inflationary pressure.
The management must have the intention to pay dividend. The past dividend payout policy based on a certain percentage on earning, preferably not more than 75%, the balance to be retained for reinvestment.
There are three factors that determine your returns; current yield, earning growth rate and revaluation or change of price/earning multiple.
If P/E is on the lower end of a long term average while margin is on uptrend, there is a good chance of value investment opportunity.
Last but not least, don’t forget the margin of safety principle.
I strongly recommend you to read KCChong’s articles to understand the art of value investment.
2015-02-24 14:52
Unlike a marathon race - the objective is to cross the finish line first before everyone does. In value investing, the aim to finish the race in one piece with your original target intact.
2015-02-24 17:28
Devastation is..... when k first appeared he has got a list of criteria more demading than yours... and a story on how he made his millions from equities to boost too
2015-02-24 17:51
And..... he has got the $$$$$$ to make the initial up to convince you to come in too
2015-02-24 17:56
KYY criteria to invest is based on underlying assumptions to project future earnings. Though some of them are valid but a lot depend on external factors which can derail his forecast which in turn drive the share price down due to the business weak fundamental.
It is unwise to depend on KYY reputation to invest. If that is your criteria, might as well invest in SPAC counters. At least the promoters' proposal are being vetted by the authority with built-in safety mechanism.
The drastic drop in oil price has caught many flat-footed, do you blame the promoter and the authority for the negative external factor when the share price drop like a rock.
2015-02-24 18:46
Posted by lmenwe > Feb 23, 2015 04:59 PM | Report Abuse
For those who are super bullish on this counter please be remember that you are betting against the legendary short seller David Einhorn. Einhorn had been shorting Keurig for years. I don't know whether Keurig is a fraud but I will never fight a legend like Einhorn.
Ans : GMCR listed in Nasdaq USA. It is a strong up trending stock. Please note that the stock price of GMCR broke new high at 158.58 on 18 Nov 2014. Looking at the chart, David Einhorn lost his pants if he shorted this stock for years.
I am a bit worry on this information initially, after looking at the chart, I am very confident GMCR will do well in Nasdaq USA.
Please be informed.
Thank you.
2015-02-24 21:21
Alphabeta
Making of assumptions for profit forecast is accepted as ok.... and is used for IPO pricing... Making of assumptions is ok
Which company is not subjected to external factors??? Every company has got a long list of risks that it is being subjected to.... this goes without saying
k when he first appeared... presented himself as a value investor.. by talking about the future in term of number of years... you know.. keep this hold on to this company that I am asking you to buy FOR A COUPLE OF YEARS and your investment will double.. cos my main criterion is future growth... BUT NOT LONG AFTER THAT in days in weeks you heard from someone else he had sold all his holdings...
What is this???!!!
2015-02-24 21:45
Einhorn had cut his position in Keurig but it is still way too early to judge whether Keurig is a fraud. Do you know how many years Einhorn took to prove he is right in the past? Try to read books and articles related to Einhorn. I know Keurig had been performing for years but please remember price doesn't equivalent to value. Remember John Paulson? Before subprime he also lost his pant but once subprime happen he made tonnes of money.
2015-02-24 21:52
Hello lmenwe, long time didn't see u at other forum.. Let ppl shoot and run to here ah?
2015-02-24 21:56
I stop posting in investalks since 2013 coz last time I had unfair treatment by the mods and admin. Btw do I know you?
2015-02-24 22:08
Sold all mine liao. Aldy overvalue. Time to sell when there are strong buy call. I think KYY is selling his 15 millions shares all the way..
2015-02-24 22:23
Dear Imenwe,
Please note that I appreciate what you had written, I was a bit worry after reading your article. Hence I went to check on the chart and also financial statement of GMCR.
Please be assured I do not have any intention to attack you. I just comment base on the chart. I hope I did not offend you.
Thank you for your good information.
2015-02-24 23:42
I have no intention to attack you. I just wanna clarified that it is hard to judge whether Keurig is a fraud coz it need tonnes of effort and time to reveal the truth even you are pretty sure it is. Just look at Ackman's short on Herbalife you will know what I mean. You can check herbalife's financial statements everything are clean but it is still a pyramid. However price did rise after Carl Ichann attack Ackman. What happen at the end? Now seems Ackman is the real winner.Sorry for the words that I said if you feel insulted.
2015-02-25 00:18
I read both of you were constructive in exchanging info and opinion on VS. Thks.
2015-02-25 07:28
Imenwe,
It is true that price does not necessarily equate to value of any stock at any point in time. Quite often there is a mismatch between price versus its value or its intrinsic worth and therein lies the opportunity for the value investor or the opportunistic investor. However the determination of intrinsic value of a stock is based on artful assumptions (honed by experience but may not be absolutely true at all times) and therein lies the question on what is the degree of confidence of a particular intrinsic value that has been derived. Different assumptions of the same formula will give different intrinsic value output. So the intrinsic value of the same stock will vary based on the varying assumptions.
So , Imenwe, how does one see value for VS based on your intrinsic valuation methodology? What are the critical assumptions that are extremely relevant and important in your determination of the intrinsic worth of VS or any other stock of interest? Since the subject matter is on VS lets focus on VS.
2015-02-25 07:31
If keurig a faulty company, you think coca cola mgt stupid enough to buy it. And being large investor in coca-cola, you think Warren buffett will keep quiet?
2015-02-25 07:38
Share up becoz KYY buy 15 million shares. So better sell earlier before KYY sold his shares to you or you will get trap soon like Jaya Tiasa and Muda Jaya.
2015-02-25 23:05
Big shark always accumulate before they release news to the market. There are no such free lunch in the world. So be careful all. Dont get trap. KYY is a speculator from my point of view not a long term investor. The share price of laititud, VS up because he keep buying in with his money. So dont get trap with his tricks.
2015-02-25 23:17
People who willingly cloud their minds with fuzzy emotions and inability to weigh risks versus reward, make an objective evaluation of key FA & TA info and thereafter take decision based on own risk profile will forever remain in the shifting clouds and will not be on firm grounds....
2015-02-26 11:25
Today it has reached new highs. Some were just whining whining and whining and missed out on a great opportunity. Leave the past and move on.
2015-02-27 14:52
it is no doubt VS will going growth..
i just curious on following statement:
"I am obliged to tell you that my wife and I have bought about 15 million shares in the last few weeks as soon as I saw the jump in EPS."
Based on latest qtr report, VS issued share was around 196M unit.
That mean KYY already exceed 5% shareholding requirement.
But why i can't found any announcement in BUrsa Malaysia?
How it just means RM15M value share?
Anybody can answer?
2015-02-27 18:47
The key words are "..my wife and I.." implying the 15 million shares are bought through 2 separate individual accounts each holding less than 9.8 million shares evading the 5% substantial shareholding disclosure requirement.
2015-02-28 09:22
When Koon Koon first posted on VS in I3 on 22 Feb,it was around RM4.20. Highest it touched was around RM4.50 during early Mac and since then it came down slowly to current price of RM3.90+. If you follow Koon Koon blindly you may make around RM0.20+ or around 5%...but chances of being stucked in this counter is higher....Did Koon Koon happily sell down his VS in Feb/Mac/Apr while asking you all to buy and keep VS as long term investment??Hmmmm, I think OTB may have some idea since he managed his fund...
2015-04-27 10:49
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
murali
He only come to promote Latitude and VS now, at historical high level...
2015-02-24 08:42