The wildcard on oil prices now is OPEC''s meeting this week. Hedge funds are playing up speculatively for more oil cut supported by weak USD. Hence a lot of speculation currently.

Technically MYR/USD immediate support is RM4.00. Following support is RM3.80 followed by RM3.50. The wild card is when or by when.....which keeps everyone guessing!

Yes..0.35, 0.38 .....still possible as the buying season for the qtr is still opened. Every dip is opportunity before the next league. That's Y you hardly hear Radzi comments as his buying spree is still on. So do whatever you guys like now before the window closes and Radzi starts making bull calls!

Haha..... All new Airbus units otw are equipped with RR engine!

If that's the case how much can AAX gain from forex in Q4?

Radzi ....What's your estimation for MYR/USD for Q3 and Q4?

Yes....without profit growth means without positive earning growth. Thus that will hamper PE valuation and the share price will be heading no where but just drifting if no sideway. Opetational profit is paramount in share price appreciation and sustainability vis a vis sales revenue increase.

Perhaps the company may go for some corporate exercise eg. share consolidation that will shrink the current shares issued. Some companies are excising that after the par value was scrapped. That will ease the burden of the company in financial reporting since AAX is yet a big cap stock. For shareholders this exercise is not a capital reduction but merely a shares reduction with price adjustment accordingly after ex. The mgmt can have more flexibility to manage growth and profitability in a lean and mean manner while the share pice can appreciate in an orderly manner when profit grows.

A merger of both is nil currently. Tony had ruled out and their immediate plan is to list regional subsidiaries followed by One Asia formation.

Yes.....every price weakness is buying opportunity! More downside offers more accumulation opportunity. Buy on dip!

Radzi > benyaminismail@airasia.com

Good info Radzi.

That's tip of the iceberg!

PHB share price low remains a bottomless abyss. Whether PRG still generates profit or with high asset value will not change PHB current price direction as that's already proven in last few Q results. More over PRG is in downtrend again and PRA is drifting lower historically. PHB is in net asset position but not net cash if its' debts are taken in consideration totally.Hence when PHB can start to generate good profit consistently will reverse the current price trend into positive territory - light at the end of tunnel!

Bear in mind that PHB is not a property stock hence asset value never comes into play. It's merely a trading cimpany which is driven by current earning pertinent to trading sector.

Radzi Most of Q3 oil price and MYR range have been + for AAX. Hence Q3 result will very much be dictated by load factor and average flight selling price which translates into RASK and CASK on overall cost factor. Hence we'll need your calculation to facilitate the projection again.

Everyday''s low could be next day''s high ......killing softly, dying slowly....... bottomless abyss till profit''s shown in PHB. Current ideal range between 0.40 - 0.50!

Before we focus on profit from Hawaian route we need to know if there will be any start up losses. Moreover AAX has been reducing selling prices as revealed by RadzI there is some risk to a certain extent. If Hawaian route is profitable in Q3 onwards then average PAT RM 100 - 150M QoQ is substantive to increase valuation of AAX with a firm EPS 3-4 sen per Q. By then AAX upgrade in TP will no longer be in penny stock region!

Your point does make sense. That's Y you'll notice an uptick in profit gradually from Q1. Any weakness now is a window of opportunity. So get your bullets ready before more excitement.

Next Mon opening 0.445!

Q4 LPS - 9 sen. FY17 LPS - 11 sen

Q4 net loss RM 151.03 M

Y this lengchai never commented yesterday......

PHB is near 0.53. Once penetrated there'll likely be free fall to 0.50 and below.

Seriously beware!!!

I like this qte 'Ape crite here Mr.Radzi?' Lol....

Radzi What's your plan to boost RASK?

Fly fly every 1 is flying....
Radzi keeps chasing.....lol...

Let's see what other IBs' calls will be.

IB call on Q2:
1. CIMB - Maintain Reduce with TP 0.25

Hahaha......will some1 b still waiting since Apr???

Lol.....

As can be seen AAX came out of the wood 1 and half years ago. Since then the mgmt has been focusing on paring down debts and trimming accumulated losses to tidy up the BS. Perhaps dividend will be declared when the BOD feels the BS is lean with strong reserves and no other priority.

Think I concur with your assumption. I refer to WTI mostly though Brent is often applied. Technically WTI has dipped to 42 before rebounding from 42.60 major SL of the downtrend from 15x.xx. Immediate R is 50 and S is 46. If Q3 WTI penetrates 42 then 20 to 30 level is no issue in the next few Q. On the contrary if 50 is removed then WTI will turn very bullish. Brent will then be 55 onwards.

Radzi Btw do you also foresee a new low in oil price in Q4 since we're already in Q3 now?

Radzi.......your 1 stmt nailed all P to grave!

Hahaha

Let see who's the better joker! Lol!!!

Yeah...super motivation....tomorrow will fly...... radzi will chase since he didn't buy enough yet!

LOL.....

You're quite right on AAX model that's affordable flight in long haul routes. Like any supermart to increase bottomine AAX needs to lead the mkt with low cost regime and wide geographic coverage so as to boost loading as economic as possible.

Think you better buy higher sell higher.....Lol!!

Hey radzi. ...u sound very bias here!

Watch out for announcement on Pictures Work. That can prompt a major gap up!

Cannot simply gap up..... Unless there's a major development!

Btw bulk of AAX borrowing in USD. Hence case sensitive to US rates movement!

Not really. OP can be managed to certain extent by the mgmt but not forex. Many companies make handsome profits but being wiped out by forex loss. Again it's internal versus external factor.

Yes SIGNN is right. Not to expect fireworks tomorrow but perhaps muted movement to slight downside at least. More room for upside from now. Confidence should be restored. Let's wait and see what the respective IBs have in store to report and TP to offer!

Q2 finally sets the bottom for price with limited downside and reaffirm uncapped upside for Q3 and Q4 barring unforeseen factors. Hence risk factor is lower now versus gain.

Hawaii route is indeed the game changer to stretch further AAX earnings and advantage over other budget air in long haul. AAX is currently in talk to lease additional planes to cater for the extension while waiting for own new Airbus units starting from 2018.

During this period we hope that all important factors ranging from fuel oil, forex and US interest rates to remain favorable to AAX flight operation. With that we should be able to expect improved earnings in Q3, Q4 and FY17.

Hence we need Sifu Radzi to double his effort in updating us with his timely analysis and estimates for projection. His Q2 provision was indeed excellent! Terima kasih Master Radzi

Yes @faizkl

YES...Absolutely right SIGNN

Radzi Q2 is to your estimate. Congratz

QoQ EPS 1.4 sen

So current price to stay!

Net Profit 47.438 M

Q2 out. EPS 1.1 sen

Milky Forever Wow!! If EPS 3 AAX will be at least 0.60! Everyone can fly!