Guys, actually if you analyse all the 3 cos, 2 are loss making and 1 slightly breakeven. PRG and PHB no doubt having high NTA but EPS is - for PHB and breakeven for PRG. They're not property counters hence high asset values don't really influence the share price. Whereas PRA is bleeding badly due to massive regional expansion investment and heavy loss making outlets. Shareholders funds are currently below paid up capital due to high accumulated losses which is alarming with high gearing due to heavy borrowing to fund regional retail expansion plan. Hence, there'd be some negative development in PHB that keeps the price drifting otherwise would have rebounded in tandem with the strong rebound in PRG and PRA before sliding back in these 2 weeks. Essentially, PHB needs consistent + and solid earnings to commence a turnaround. Otherwise the current direction may still prolong. PHB is fortunate to rake in some cash from PRG''s disposal of a major mall in China which helped strengthen their respective cash flow and reserves. Otherwise they will have liquidity issues again. So when the 3 companies start to make profits is when there's light at the end of the tunnel!

http://sgx.i3investor.com/servlets/anpth/293333.jsp

PRA Q4 result to be released on 23/8!

limch Lim Kian Onn disposed last month. So coming QR must be bad?
limch You r right. More downside ahead. Lim Kian Onn sold at low price meaning now still not cheap.

What's LKO disposal got to do that coming QR must be bad? Why more downside ahead? Why low price meaning now still not cheap?

Pls explain limch!

Today PHB new low 0.535, PRG week low 1.20, PRA revisit low 0.09!

Think Ks55 assumption seems to be more and more realistic!

And since you said you bought more at 0.54..... wish you good luck for a quick rebound if posiible or else you'd listen to Ks55 advice for 25/8!

911!

limch Why you said I'm fearful? And how you know I have Parkson share or not? And Y u need many IDs like what Ks55 said? Are you fearful of revealing your identity or your losses or both?
And Y you failed to answer what other ppl asked you?

I do agree with Ks55 comments as his views are justified and factual. Just like what Radzi and I did for AAX. Anyone can comment on our views but must be justified. You're welcome to do that provided it's justified with facts and figures. If yours is merely to air your emotion or expression then this is not the right thing to do here.

Am sure others do agree to that for the benefits of everyone in this forum and share useful info. Think Ks55 does agree to that as well!

No worry humbleisland ....as long as we talk sense here besides facts they'll change and more and more will start following for the positive and constructive developments that benefit everyone in this group..... and inerestingly you're amongst the few who've already started. Thanks for the comment and let's enjoy more sharing of useful info. M sure Radzi agrees to that!

AirAsia is mainly short haul and AAX is long haul flight. But both are still in the same flight business. As such that's not the main factor differenciating both as they both still derive revenues from ticketing and flight related activities. Airasia is more diversified into other aviation related businesses such as aviation leasing, flight academy, flight catering, flight maintenance, etc.... Aviation leasing is the biggest business unit after flight operation. And Airasia has a fleet of nearing 200 currently which helps generate a major part of the revenue and profits to the group. And Airasia is currently in the plan to divest it's' stake in the leasing arm to rake in huge investment gain and to lower the group''s gearing. It's also in preparation to take delivery of new Airbus units yearly it's acquired that positioned Airasia as the largest budget airline globally and in Asia. Hence, those are the major differences between Airasia and AAX!

PE ratio is an approach we apply to arrive at the price or value of a stock which we think possible or likely but not accurate. It depends on the jevel of potential or lucrativeness vested in that business and the return on the capital employed. Hence some people will ascribe high PE value if they're bullish, speculative or strategic while some people may be conservative or pessimistic thus a low or lower PE value. Whereas some who are speculative or manipulative will ascribe any PE value or excessive though the counter is loss making with no - EPS. That's illogical practice and misleading that results in more speculative play and manipulation.

In real practice PE is a reference for ROI or ROE to determine the period required to recover the capital invested in a business. In this regard different industry will have different period of recovery. This is mainly applied on fundamental counters and blue chips by any fund manager globally in their respective investment criteria and portfolio management.

So for any counter you are involved in is determined by PE except companies with - earning. It's whether the PE of your counter is realistic or not which is influencing the current price direction. On average 15 the normal PE but some may be below 10 related to their respective industrise and some with excessive PE which are highly speculative in nature mainly high tech, IT, online, innovative companies, etc...

Check it out what on your counters!

Agreed that Airasia and AAX are different in business. What's their difference actually Darren?

Good companies is rite.....

Moreover if those comments are not helpful to you here then why are you still reading? Don't waste your time here!

Who asked you to predict?

Technically PRG is not looking good since yesterday when 1.21 was hit and repeated today. If that's breached in the following sessions a major breakdown can be confirmed from the current rising wedge pattern. A bearish engulfing candlestick was formed few days ago.

PHB low of 0.545 was done yesterday and today. 0.55 major support was finally broken and turned major resistance if no rebound above that in coming session. Perhaps PRA Q4 result will determine PHB direction in immediate term. Be cautious in this critical month.

The risk reward ratio is 50:50.

Technically 0.35 is the neckline either for a win or loss. Either direction is dependent on Q2 result. Hence if we'really bullish we can follow that and cut loss at or below that if Q2 result is not favourable. If we're uncertain or pessimistic then better stay neutral and only enter after Q2 result is released.

TP by IB usually refers to PE projection for whole current FY or forward FY ie. FY'18 based on the respective IB's projection on the NP and EPS every quarter. Hence you may need to read and understand clearly if the IB's TP for AAX is increased, lowered or maintained. Many readers would assume the TP as the immediate current price. TP - 'Targeted Price'is different from Current Price! As a result some counters react to such report whereas some counters stay strong or neutral.

Whereas the PE we meant earlier is based on our own projection after the release of the Q2 loading report which again was mistaken by many readers or public as Q2 financial result. Now we benefit from that loading report as it allows us to a preliminary input to enhance our projection prior to the current quarterly financial result is released whereby other industries do not provide. With that we are able to project the important financial elements which affect the quarterly result as a whole. We can project the current cost factors namely oil price, forex,CASK, ASK, etc...and the bottomline namely PBT, PAT, EPS, PE barring any unforeseen factors. The final figure we arrive at strictly refers to the current quarter or Q2 due to be reported soon. We are not referring to any price for further quarters ahead. Radzi is very helpful in providing the required important data and estimation for the projection. His effort in analysing and compiling data is really tedious and time consuming work. Therefore we should not criticize him for his valuable contribution. He is not a promoter of AAX nor a speculator but simply highlighting the essential inputs on AAX.

Fundamentally AAX is not viewed as a speculative counter as you find most of the people in the management, BOD and major shareholders being Tony and Kama are trully professionals pertinent to aviation, corporate and financial management, legal, marketing,etc.....and also the notable chairwoman TS Rafidah! Even the CEO Benyamin is a no stranger in the financial and corporate sector. All these speak for the confidence and competence required to run the company at least.

Financially, AAX was out of the wood just a year or more. Many people are asking why the price is still slumpy compared to AirAsia. Do you guys know why?..... The clue is still stuck to earning and PE. For the price to improve further or be on par with the mother that's indeed a very tall order as AAX will need PAT of RM100-200M consistently every Q without any change to current paid up or shareholders funds. AAX can achive that only when the fleet expands further and further from the current no. of 30!

Whether right or wrong, the stock price is mainly driven by PE and the current PE value applied for the aviation industry. For instance Air Asia has strong NP that commands high EPS that allows current price to prevail at a single digit PE pending Q2 result.

@WarrBuff Q1 NP RM10.336 M EPS was 0.2 sen, hence if Q2 NP RM 100 M EPS is only 2 sen. So you assume the price range for AAX to be ......

@radzi Well if following your estimation for PBT RM 76 - 119 MIL, AAX will stil stay around current price on PAT after PE translation at best. On TA if we assume AAX to be around current price range post Q2 result, RM 0.35 will likely act as strong support followed by a strong rebound into Q3!

On the contrary, if the above estimate is not applicable on Q2 result then RM 0.35 support will be fragile. Hence, a double top......!!

When is PRA Q4 result released actually?

PRG has gained almost 100% from the low and PRA has also recovered from the low. Based on the recovery Parkson Holdings should have recovered by easily 30% from 0.55 since it''s controlling more than 50% of both companies but it retreated today to a new low @ 0.545. The stock didn't seem to have strength but weak and succumbed to sell down in any rebound. Some said something fishy is going on and some said it''s heading to 0.50. Looking at the current scenario more downside is very likely. Financially PRA is very weak since its' shareholder funds are already far below paid up capital besides loss making while PRG is just breaking even. So what's actually going on in Parkson Holdings which kept its' price more and more depressed since Q3 result was reported? Is there really going to be a kitchen sinking activity in Q4 or big negative surprise in Q4 result?

Technically 0.35 is the major but also critical support. If broken then AAX will suffer from double top breakdown.

Btw when is the actual date for PRA Q4 result?

@radzi Based on your latest estimation of PBT RM 37 Mil for AAX in Q2, that will generate a minimal EPS which translate's into a much lower share price on PE foward. If that's true that means there'll be more downside from today closing.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/radziarticles/125729.jsp

@radzi The above link is very detailed and analytical on that affected counter. Pls continue with your good effort to provide more financial and technical highlights to the group. Thanks for your valuable contribution.

Technically AAX has formed 2 hammers these 2 days. What sign is that? Judge by yourself!

@radzi You do have good acumen in stock analysis. What other counters which you do cover? Eg. Parkson. That's an interesting counter.

Public Invest TP RM 0.75 for Parkson.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PublicInvest/128837.jsp

@radzi That's good news based on your calculation.

@radzi What's the figure based on your calculation?

@Vtep The selling price could have been mitigated by lower operation costs mainly from stronger MYR and lower oil price.

The recent revelation of AAX''s loading for Q2 is either close to Q1 achievement but far improved from 2016 Q2. That figure gives insight into Q2 financial result. If we assume oil price and MYR to be the same as Q1 then AAX is likely to breakeven at best barring unforeseen factors. But the oil price trended much lower and MYR stronger in Q2. With that in sight we can possibly anticipate a much better Q2 financial result if no surprise from unforeseen factors. Radzif''s assumption is a good guide indeed. If a sterling result is posted that'll certainly be a bonus!

Financially has PRG made any provision to account for that amount in dispute after the case was in court? If yes then the should be no effect to current Q account. Moreover unfreezing the deposit of such amount in PRG will allow PRG to settle the sum awarded by the court without requiring PRG to tap into current reserve if PRG decides not to appeal against the judgement. Hence, if that's the current scenario there'll be no effect to PRG and Parkson Holding. On the contrary if no provision was made earlier then the court judgement will impact both the companies if PRG decides to accept the judgement.

Why's Parkson dead coming Monday?

Parkson Holding is mainly driven by PRA and PRG. Currently PRG has recovered 100% from the low and PRA has recovered around 10%. They both have bottomed out and Parkson Holdings is still yet to show. Perhaps Parkson Holdings is currently at bottom out process and in the process to form a double bottom. Watch out for 0.58. If that's removed in the near term a rally will spark off and Parkson will resume a technical rally to equate with the current valuation of PRA and PRG respectively. Should the rally takes place 1.00 can be revisited rapidly due to massive undervaluation currently.

Current technical indicators are turning bearish. If today's closing price is broken next week RM 0.30 is fragile. More downside is imminent since latest FY 2017 just ended not substantive for higher earning for FY 2018. Without strong earning a company share price is difficult to move up albeit still registering profit.

Why should wait till RM 0.78 to buy?

PGRL may be considered to be out of the wood currently based on the latest result but next Q2 result will firmly confirm if it's profitable. Whereas PRA is making losses but not subtantially. The losses are mainly due to expansion besides closing of non profitable outlets. As we can see that Parkson is pursuing regional expansion and market leadership currently in departmental store aggressively hence if the regional retail market is turning around rapidly soon will benefit PRA immediately and substantially. PRA is embarking on strong brand and franchise development as many new brands were introduced for different market segments such as LOL, Spaos, many more to rival other strong retail players. Though the market is very competitive with rising costs but if Parkson successfully reigns in market leadership with the current business strategy the outlets should be turning in profits soon. Hence PRA will be turning around rapidly and need not close anymore outlets if they are profitable. That will immediately boost Parkson Holding Bhd price and stage a sterling turnaround.

Meanwhile on issue pertaining to delist in PRA now is not viable. That's because PRA is currently highly geared while on expansion mode. The BoD may not view that justifiable.

Private placement for fresh funds for project financing and working capital. Existing funds are drying up. Management not wanting to increase gearing. But some banks may not be interested in lending to the company due to lack of development prospect and short land lease remaining. The casino approval is fading as the Indonesian government will never approve for now due to local issues.

When the new rally kicks off that will coincide with the new Q1 report riding on low oil price and strengthenening ringgit though the positive factors will only be reflected in Q2.

Guys, no worries. As I posted yesterday that AAX''s strong 1 day rally was merely an upside technical correction to close the upper gap down followed by a consolidation in the following session. The consolidation is likely to be brief and a new rally is likely to resume very soon to rechallenge yesterday's peak when the consolidation ends. Now just allow the daily volume to be digested and it's good opportunity to buy on dip.

AAX strong rally today is possibly technical in nature to cover the upper gap down (0.435 - 0.45) developed 6 months ago. The gap filling was today successfully achieved and completed. Following session will likely be in consolidation if similar gain and volume are not sustained.

Taking Lionind private is unlikely though NTA is high. Currently gearing is high and the latest Q result still needs observation for consistency in the next Q result to generate similar strong EPS to remain in the black and sustainable PE. Current rally is an upward revaluation technically based on the latest result.

Currently the warrant is trading at very low gearing slightly above 2 .5 and excessive premium of 300% which may seem far overvalued if the mother does not pick up further. Hence it's purely speculative currently and interest may taper of if the momentum is not sustainable vis a vis the mother.

Based on the news that Petronas and Aramco sealing the deal on Rapid finally, oil stocks will rally coming Monday. Should KNM reverse direction it will be rather odd or to be a spoiler to the sentiment. Looking at recent movement of KNM not rallying much compared to the peers, KNM could be pricing in the Q4 loss already. Recent companies with reporting of heavy losses but minimal retreatment or neutral are good examples. Hence there's still a glimmer of hope. Technically KNM is poised for a rally since rebounding from the lowest price.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/24/petronas-saudi-aramco-to-ink-deal-during-saudi-king-visit/

Since Parkson HK went up substantially above 60% since Sept 2016 and Parkson Retail Grp controlled 56% of the unit, how much should be reflected in PRG currently from the price now?

If bjcorp never trends upward from tomorrow very likely will consolidate first to digest all the recent high volumes. May inch down few more sen from today''s closing but revisiting the low of 0.32 is quite remote or impossible unless some negative news are announced. Will rechallenge recent high again once the consolidation is over and breakout.

http://www.news18.com/news/travel/global-casino-operators-step-up-effort-to-woo-business-partners-in-japan-1344017.html