RWKL, You and I have a very different concepts of valuation.

You assume that low PE and high yields to be an approximation of the quality of a company. I believe in no such thing, as pe does not look at debt, performance or forward growth of a company.

PE is just that: the confidence level that investors have in a stock. And at what price versus risk investors are willing to take to hold a stock.

PE has nothing whatsoever to do with margin of safety.

More often than not, I find myself differing with other investors in trying to relieve them if this concept.

Majority of new investors look at PE first, then decide if they want to buy a company.

For myself, I look at the company first and its long term growth prospects. Once I have decided to buy, then I use PE to decide at what price I am willing to take the risk to hold a stock.

PE is very important, it's just that it doesn't tell you anything relevant about a company's future.

And investing is about putting money today to get back more in the future.



>>>>>>>>

Posted by Rwkl > Apr 2, 2020 8:34 PM | Report Abuse

Since I have your attention please allow me to point an anomaly and it’s not intended to belittle you.
Phillip currently holds six Bursa counters ie Gkent, Pchem, Topglove, QL, Yinson and Serba. By your own admission , you have a position in the 1st two mentioned. A basic inspection by me would bear the same outcome as lowest PE and higher yields tip the scales. The other 4 will be ignored based on a combo of extremely high PE low yields high gearing etc
Strangely enough or maybe not, it’s the 2 reasonably valued stocks that tanked and the rest holding out well in relative terms. Perhaps we should unlearn what we already know. Just food for thought...... no?

This will be the most interesting crisis I have gone through yet. Serba dinamik performance is such an interesting climb I don't expect my 30% gains to last for long.

Can flow 40 million? With revenues of 33 THOUSAND? How is this possible? Nak tipu pun Jangan gitu obvious, malukah bosku?



>>>>>>>

cash flow 40mil

They are not starting a new business you pigmy. They are buying into an existing business at a low price and good rates with a AWARDED CONTRACT (something which NETX DOESN'T HAVE), and doing it by giving liquidity to rising sun energy. They have liquidity, they only give up 37.5% of the company, everyone is happy, more projects to come.

Something which NETX with its 33k a quarter revenue desperately needs. Maybe netx should buy the 700 imaginary buses that YINSON has to pump up their imaginary revenue.


>>>>>>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > Apr 2, 2020 12:59 AM | Report Abuse

Going into solar plant business when Crude OIl is so cheap at USD21 is another suicidal move

However, it is not as profitable as you might think. The tariff solar sales cost is INR 2.44 per kWh or 0.14 MYR per kWh unit( absurdly low, but this is India). Using 146k MWh per year, the safe estimate is only around 20 million per year. Yinson will get around , 7.48 million per year, aiming expenses and other costs they will probably name around 6.7 million a year. Which looks to around 10 year break even costs.

But since the project started in 2017, and the contract runs until 2042, I would say it is a very safe bet.

But that is how I prefer it. Remember that yinson has a perpetual guarantee bond which is around 999 years and needs to pay back 7.85% per year( no need to pay back principal, only coupon payments). This makes perfect sense as it is similar to its FPSO contracts ( high startup costs, but very stable earnings in the long term).

I would rather yinson do things like this rather than take riskier positions in property development or oil exploration, safe and sound investments.

My favourite kind.

It's actually not like 32 million for the 37.5% stake, and 35 million in funding to pay for the liabilities.

I also have a ppa agreement 25 year for FIT solar 24kw for my house in Sabah. So far the contract is paid using the 1% contribution fee for electricity and guaranteed by the government. Is been more than 7 years now, and so far things are going good ( the payback period on the solar system was paid off in 5 years, and future payments are pure profit, except for maintenance costs and replacement costs.

Rising Sun Energy has signed 25-year power purchase agreements, expiring in 2042, with India’s largest power utility, NTPC Limited, which is majority owned by the India.

In my opinion this is a good deal, because
A. The contracts are already up and running and awarded. So payment is GUARANTEED, as long as the proper maintenance is done ( like cleaning of solar panels and inverters), as the payment is based on generated energy.
B. for me site I generated usually around 3.5-4 hours of solar generation per day. Assuming 3 hours in India ( which I doubt due to the refraction rates), they can generate around 400mwh of generation per day, or 146k MWh per year

>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by ferrarimaker > Apr 2, 2020 12:53 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Philip, it seems Yinson has acquired a stake in an India solar power farm (140MW). From the surface level, looks like a good deal as they paid RM 67M for 37.5% stake which equivalent to about RM179 Mil at 100% stake, comparing to RM170 Mil to build 70MW farm by one of the incumbent power player.

His personal reasons is me sadly. But he didn't go to topglove to talk bad about the stock, or talk about QL, which is still holding steady.

He still thinks YINSON has 700 bus under its umbrella.

He is a gambler and speculator plain and simple.

And when his SPECULATION in NETX was put to light, this old man because embittered and tries to sow more SPECULATION, not realising I do not buy penny stocks like he does.

So the more he talks the more idiotic he sounds.

And sadly, I seem to have caused his penny stock to drop from 2 cents ( his SPECULATION cost) by 50% losses to 1 cent. Just buy reposting information from his NETX latest annual report.

Pathetic.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by sagaraken > Apr 1, 2020 4:20 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Calvin, based on your supreme analysis if Norway funds starts selling, not only yinson finished, all stocks bought by them also finished. Why only post this at yinson? how about the other stocks? i'm not sure what's your targeted grudge against this stock, but i hope your moral compass is still intact and your judgement is not clouded by personal reasons.

Maybe he goes home using one of yinson 700 invisible buses...

But you did see the latest quarter reports right? FPSO helang has just started deployment in Malaysia. So, you do realize what that means right?

Wow, looks like they have to sell all their 700 buses then to survive. Oh no.

Eh not going to admit your wrong assumption on 700 buses?

Eh Calvin, you forgot to mention yinson 700 bus stranded in tebrau....

If the quality of your research forgot something that was sold a long time ago, how are we supposed to believe your research today?

That shoddy piece of research came from the same research that still thought this was true... As recently as 2020.

calvintaneng SUPER BODOH HIDING IN TAWAU DOES NOT KNOW YINSON 700 FLEET OF BUSES NOW IDLE IN TEBRAU?

NO.1

RM3 BILLIONS DEBT STILL WITH INTEREST ALTHOUGH BUS ENGINES NOT RUNNING FOR ONE LONG MONTH

NO. 2

THESE RICKETY BUSES IF NOT SERVICED WILL NOW JAM UP AS MACHINES CANNOT BE OFF FOR TOO LONG

NO. 3

IF LOCK DOWN EXTENDS MEAN EVEN MORE PROBLEM FOR YINSON

SO YINSON FACES THESE

1) FIRST HIT ON THE LEFT BY LOW OIL PRICES FOR BRAZIL

BRAZIL MIGHT GO BELLY UP AND YINSON ALSO GOT BELLY UP


2) RM3 BILLIONS DEBT BOMB BACKED BY HIGH RECEIVABLES (ALL IOUS)

VERY PRECARIOUS LIKE SENDAI. SECOND HIT ON THE RIGHT

3) 700 BUSES LEFT IDLE DUE TO COMPLETE SHUT DOWN

LOANS INTEREST UP WHILE BUSES ROTTING AWAY

DIRECT HIT ON THE FACE

HEMMED IN BY ALL THESE YINSON WILL IMPLODE!!

ESCAPE FOR THY LIFE!!!

OUT NOW!!!
31/03/2020 1:39 PM

So funny, again with the oversimplification? Or is this another 700 buses that belong to yinson that you did not read about?

There never was a contract with Ghana. It was at LOI stage, meaning no contract or letter of award.

And more importantly is was not CANCELLED, but on SUSPENSION as they are still studying how best to go about it due to covid19 worries on deployment and application.

But Petrobras already signed CONTRACT, so still in progress.


tlchiat Pecan Project by Aker Energy has been cancelled. Not viable becuase the breakeven price is 49USD.
https://e24.no/energi/i/pLj0ro/roekke-og-aker-legger-ghana-prosjektet-...

But even without Ghana, they are still have a 27 billion ringgit contract in Brazil.

You understand?

Or you still think YINSON business still has buses?

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Apr 1, 2020 12:09 PM | Report Abuse

Ghana just cancelled yinson contract

With crude oil at USD20 no one in USA can survive

Come talk back more theory when you have a working portfolio going. Otherwise all you are is another fantasy writer with no results to back it up.

Why indeed? What is so bad about the annual report in NETX that the moment I repost annual report into the forum it gets deleted.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by stncws > Mar 31, 2020 8:43 PM | Report Abuse

Philip ( Dr. Fauci my Hero) Post removed. Why?
31/03/2020 8:37 PM

Mikecyc Post removed. Why?
31/03/2020 8:37 PM

Mikecyc Post removed. Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

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Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

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Post removed.Why?

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Losses to grow revenue no problem, key word here being REVENUE GROWTH.

WHAT REVENUE GROWTH TO MATCH WITH FACEBOOK.

DON'T BE AN IDIOT. EVEN THE MOST GUNGHO NETX INVESTOR WILL NOT COMPARE NETX WITH UBER AND FACEBOOK.

UBER LOSSES EVERY YEAR, BUT LOOK AT THE REVENUE GROWTH.
FACEBOOK KISSES EVERY YEAR, BUT LOOK AT THE USER GROWTH.

NETX LOSSES EVERY YEAR, BUT LOOK AT THE REVENUE GROWTH! 33 THOUSAND ringgit, WOW.

How much money is being invested to give a revenue of 33k a quarter?



>>>>>>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 31, 2020 4:43 PM | Report Abuse

Stupid so-fool Philip knows nothing about Facebook in early days

Facebook registered loses before listing

Don't know history better keep your big mouth shut!!!

So WHO IS THE SUPER BODOH ONE HERE? THE ONE WHO BOUGHT AND RENOVATED A HOUSE (NETX) WITHOUT GETTING A SIGNED S&P AGREEMENT?

OR THE GUY BUYING THE COMPANY WITH RENTAL ( DIVIDEND) AND FREE RENOVATION INCLUDED ( SHARE BUYBACK) INCREASING THE VALUE OF THE COMPANY??

NOTHING TO SAY, MR SUPER BODOH?

YINSON IS ON A TOTAL DIFFERENT LEVEL FROM THE STOCKS YOU ALWAYS BUY. STOCK TO YOU BACKWATER PUMP AND DUMP SCHEMES AND LEAVE THE MONEY MAKING TO THOSE WHO DON'T RELY ON SUBSCRIPTIONS AND TITHING.

Yes I am biased, BIASED BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA.

If you cannot run 100 meter face below 10 seconds 3 years, 5 years, 10 years ago, why assume you can suddenly run sub 10 second race 3 years from now?

Are you bodoh or something? Cycle depends on performance.

If NETX had not performed for last 10 years, if you are speculating on dropped results then you are dastardly stupid and BRAINLESS.

But even if oil is usd20 3 years from now yinson is still going to be profitable.

Why? 25 year contract and design is based on daily charter, not price of oil. And if Petrobras pulls out, they have to pay penalty of 1 billion or ship conversion cost, which yinson is more than happy to claim.

Come on Calvin, if you pump and dump stop asking for fairness. BE HONEST, HOW HIGH IS THE CHANCE OF NETX GETTING A CONTRACT WHEN THEY DIDN'T EVEN PARTICIPATE OR JV WITH ANY BIG PLAYER?

But you keep assuming they will get something.

FROM WHO?

At least I buy companies with LOA and signed contracts
You buy based on DREAMS.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 31, 2020 3:45 PM | Report Abuse

Why you so bias

3 years from now oil cannot be usd20?

3 years from now Netx cannot get Nfcp job awards?

Why you so lopsided ?

Wow, really a retarded pastor.

Are you seriously trying to lead investors to hell?
How can you compare Facebook to NETX!!!! Facebook doubled revenues almost every year, the number of users was exponential growth.
NETX had 1 deal with TM ariantec 10 years ago.... After that zero. Zip. NADA. But you use that as justification??? Are you retarded or just a hardcore's pump and dumpers?


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 31, 2020 3:43 PM | Report Abuse

Very ok as Facebook also posted losses as a start up

Now Facebook is a hot stock

So All have been reflected in Netx share price at 1 sen

PCHEM sell PETROCHEMICALS YOU FRAUD, DO YOU EVEN READ ANNUAL REPORTS?


>>>>>>>

Pchem facing steel fall in demand

Wow!!! a 41 million ringgit company with 35.2 billions.... brilliant.


>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 31, 2020 2:48 PM | Report Abuse

Very good

Cash now Rm35.2 billions for Netx

The more you claim the more idiotic you sound. 3 years from now I can guarantee you oil price will not be at USD20.


>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 31, 2020 1:31 PM | Report Abuse

What fixed payments

IF BRAZIL GOES DOWN LIKE ARGENTINA OR GREECE IN DEFAULT

WHERE GOT MONEY LEFT TO PAY YINSON?

STILL IN LA LA LAND?

Wow I knew you were stupid, I didn't know you were insane. You do know that Yinson has sold their bus fleet business right?

Yinson exits logistics business for RM228m


June 29, 2015


KUALA LUMPUR (June 29): Oil and gas service provider Yinson Holdings Bhd said today it is exiting its logistics and trading business to focus on its burgeoning floating production storage and offloading (FSPO) business.

Yinson said it is divesting its logistics and trading subsidiaries to the group's major shareholders and executive directors Lim Han Weng and his wife Bah Kim Lian – via Liannex Labuan Ltd – for RM228 million.

Liannex Labuan is wholly-owned by Liannex Corp (S) Pte Ltd, which in turn is wholly-owned by Lim and Bah.



In a statement today, Lim, who is the executive chairman of Yinson, said proceeds from the disposal of the group's six non-oil and gas subsidiaries would enable it to drive a centric focus business operation and reinvest the proceeds into more lucrative oil and gas (O&G) projects with higher project internal rate of return.


ARE YOU EVEN FUCKING STUPID OR BRAINLESS? BUT DECEIVING WHEN INFORMATION IS RIGHT AT THE DOOR IS INSULTING. JUST LIKE YOU AND YOUR NETX CLAIMS OF NFCP ORDERS, WHEN THERE IS NO SUCH THING AND THE LAST AWARD WAS IN 2011 MANY MANY YEARS AGO.
>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 31, 2020 1:39 PM | Report Abuse

SUPER BODOH HIDING IN TAWAU DOES NOT KNOW YINSON 700 FLEET OF BUSES NOW IDLE IN TEBRAU?

Sorry misleading statement on my end. First oil will only take place in 2023, by then there will be a shortage of oil due to many companies going bankrupt, and the price of oil will be at least 70USD per barrel due to shortage. 37 months is the length of time for deployment, but then again calvino crystal ball can see so far into the future and predict oil price at USD20..... 3 YEARS from now.

Wonderful!

>>>>>>>>

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/yinson-wins-big-brazil

So funny, idito calvino does not realizo that Yinson project in brazil will only take first oil 30 months from now, 2 and a half years from now. will the price of oil still be so low 2 years from now when everyone is cutting down production?

SILLY CALVINO...

and more importantly, yinson business is a bareboat charter + O&M hire, meaning their payment has nothing to do with the price of oil.

It is a fixed payments, over 25 years. HAHAHAHA WOW! Which if MYR to USD is at 4.8? this becomes a 27 billion ringgit windfall!

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/10/16/yinson-bags-us54b-contracts-from-brazil039s-petrobras

https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/yinson-modec-confirm-marlim-fpso-charters-from-brazils-petrobras/2-1-689295

https://www.yinson.com/highlights/Yinson-awarded-Brazil-FPSO-Marlim-project/

WOW WOW WOW WOW!

More importantly?

https://connect.ihsmarkit.com/upstream-insight/article/phoenix/2416301/petrobras-awards-marlim-2-fpso-to-yinson

DID YOU CATCH IT? THE CHARTER DAY RATE IS USD 591,780 PER DAY, 30% HIGHER THAN OTHER FPSO. BUT MAIN THING IS: THE DAY RATE IS A FIXED RATE WHICH HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE PRICE OF OIL... JUST LIKE THAT FACT THAT JUST BECAUSE YOU GO TO CHURCH AND SPOUT CHRISTIANITY ALL DAY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE FACT THAT YOU ARE GOING TO GO TO HELL ONE DAY...

>>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 31, 2020 1:05 PM | Report Abuse

BRAZIL COST OF OIL PRODUCTION IS USD34.99

OIL PRICE NOW USD20.00 ( OR 42% BELOW COST OF PRODUCTION)

IT WILL BE SUICIDAL FOR YINSON TO TAKE UP OIL BUSINESS WITH BRAZIL

ROAD TO DEFAULT AND BANKRUPTCY

https://www.google.com/search?q=cost+oil+oil+production+in+brazil+per+...-8

I see, those who dont even know how to buy stocks want to advise those who actually hold stocks? Too bad, you haven't built up any credentials to advise people, but trolling number 1 of course.

>>>>>>>

Posted by dragonslayer > Mar 31, 2020 12:26 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyo...referee not promoting judi...referee said...every ctrs also got judi elements...you cannot deny it...you dun judi...you buy and keep lor...even sifu also cakap...buy below fair value...sell above fair value...you dun sell Pchem at rm10...overvalued price...what you get...paperloss few million just to keep it to earn the miserable few sen dividend...wei..use you brain to talk leh...even you cut loss at rm6...you still earn more than the pathetic dividend payout leh..lol..you dun judi...you view all as investment...lol...aiyoyo...kikiki

Having gone through sources and further reading, the pecan project has not been canceled but put on hold currently. As the full design, build and deployment will take 37 months which is very aggressive, it has been delayed rather than outright canceled until the situation presents itself.


>>>>>>

tlchiat Pecan Project by Aker Energy has been cancelled. Not viable becuase the breakeven price is 49USD.
https://e24.no/energi/i/pLj0ro/roekke-og-aker-legger-ghana-prosjektet-...

NETX supporter already told you to fxxk OFF. Still dont get the message yet??? Need me to translate to rohingya?



>>>>>>>>

Stock: [NETX]: NETX HOLDINGS BHD

Mar 23, 2020 10:22 AM | Report Abuse

If you want to continue talking in that way & promoting the gambling culture dragonslayer then you have no choice but to quit your role as referee

As simple as tha

WHERE IS THAT COOLBULL GUY? 50% LOSSES GAVE UP INVESTING ALREADY?

TODAY IS 31ST MARCH CAN HE COME REVIEW THE SO CALLED NETX COMPETITION?

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/133552.jsp

PLEASE REVIEW AND TELL US HOW TO EVALUATE THE SO CALLED CHUN CHUN RESULTS?

Dragonslayer, you are really a shitty troll.

Can you stop being a troll and start telling us what stocks you have bought or recommending buying and just stop telling the forum.

What benefit are you doing to investors interested in learning investments in this forum?

If you have zero value to society, you might as well go to your Facebook and your Instagram to place comments there instead.

Because you and your fake "referee" is beyond pointless.

Do you even have a portfolio?

Or maybe you can start by buying a few lots of NETX, so you at least have a position in life. You can start with buying just 1 lot of you don't have the money. If you don't even buy, but you line to comment so much, then you are just a spineless troll who is here just to find entertainment.

Pathetic excuse.

Dragonslayer, you are really a shitty troll.

Can you stop being a troll and start telling us what stocks you have bought or recommending buying and just stop telling the forum.

What benefit are you doing to investors interested in learning investments in this forum?

If you have zero value to society, you might as well go to your Facebook and your Instagram to place comments there instead.

Because you and your fake "referee" is beyond pointless.

Do you even have a portfolio?

Wow from an expert in listed operations of power plant generation to oil and gas specialist. So impressive,

what stocks have you been buying sifu i3lurker?


>>>>>>>>>>

i3lurker Big Oil companies wun go bust.
They prepared for this day 20 years ago.

Big Oil contracts normally signed using limited liability subsidiary companies,
just chop it off and bankrupt those subsidiary companies.

Question is.... did Yinson get a corporate guarantee from the respective Big Oil principals?
maybe
maybe not.
or was contract just signed with local companies ?
30/03/2020 10:43 PM

Your argument that armada and yinson contracts are the same is not very accurate. For one thing, the FPSO contract was not with Woodside but was with Apache energy in 2011. The deal was for a 4+4, so when Woodside cancelled the contract in 2016 it was a very normal activity ( after Apache sold its Australia operations to Woodside). But armada is noted trying to claim 66 million of additional work out of scope (???) And the other 4 years of loss of profit. If course they would lose, why wouldn't they? The contract was terminated legally and above board, only armada would like you to believe that they are the wronged party.

That is why in 2020 the courts ruled in Woodside's favour.

Your argument that the FPSO contract was cancelled "abruptly" is also highly inaccurate. Armada found first oil in 2014, a few years behind schedule. On top of that Apache lost so much money that they had to sell their resources to Woodside at low prices. Woodside terminated at first opportunity available which was in the 4th year of the 4+4 contract, totally legal.

If anything, armada should only blame themselves for slow deployment, inefficient operations, and doing things without a proper agreement.

>>>>>>>>


But was that not the same for Armada? It's FPSO contract was abruptly canceled by Woodside Energy back in 2016 ( brent crude fell to around $27-28 per barrel). Now is worst with price heading to $20.

Post removed.Why?

In that same period USD MYR exchange rate went from 3.8 to 4.4. their growth went from 400 million USD to 1 billion USD in 3 years, which is not that much considering Schlumberger and baker Hughes both left qatar as per requirement from Saudi to continue doing business with them. So currently now Serbadk is basically having a monopoly there in terms of business ( their biggest growth market).

If you consider Malaysia devaluation, a ride in orders in USD denomination is not a lot.

Q3: Do you know what Serbak going to do with cash hoard of RM 1,306,590,000? 300 million USD is a cash hoard? Expanding facilities, buying equipment and getting a workshop ready, the money will disappear in a blink of an eye.

>>>>>>>>>>

Can a company doing RM 1,408 million in 2016 growth so fast to RM 4,528 million in 2019

Comparing 2 similar companies which I used to deal with in baker Hughes and Schlumberger in Labuan and Brunei

In the same period,

Schlumberger had 32.8 billion USD in revenue on 67,000 staff.

Baker Hughes did 22.6 billion USD in revenue on 49,000 staff.

For the same job scope of oil field services team. I would say it is very possible and reasonable considering Serbadk is a fully bumiputera team compared to European resources.

>>>>>>

Refer SERBAK financial end 31th Dec 2018
Total workforce as at 31th Dec2018: 1,242
Q1: Total revenue: RM3.28 billion or revenue: RM 2.64 million per workforce is this possible for O&M?