Oh gosh, you are so funny, which financial result? The current one or by end of 2020? Still short term thinker. Obviously the next financial report will not have much in contribution, the mrcb quarterly report last month for December had already come out, with the gkent/mrcb lrt3 jv claim earnings only at 700k earnings. Do you think a full redesign of system takes a few weeks to carry out? When management has already guided towards 48% claim by end of 2020, you still look towards end of 2019 FY for your confirmation?

So you are still assuming buy today for 100% earnings tomorrow?

Those who know what to look for look not only at gkent financial earnings: the look at prasarana reports, they visit the lrt3 sites, they look at mrcb reports, they buy the mrcb/gkent jv SDN BHD report, they visit the lrt3 architects, civil and m&e consultant firms to interview on payment claims progress and revised work schedules. They check with the gkent project team to find out the problems and hiccups they are facing.

So much work to buy just 1 stock.

But that is why the more work you do to study a company, the more conviction you get. This is the essence of scuttlebutt and keeping within your area of competence. If you think reading quarterly report and financial report is enough to know a company, your portfolio results will reflect your opinions.

Somebody just bought 90 million shares of hibiscus at 23.5 cents. Massive dilution paid for from the pockets of hibiscus shareholders.

Let apple168 buy. What she waiting for? When others can pay 20 cent, she go and pay 51 cent.

>>>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/HIBISCS/2020-04-06-story-h1485817342-MICHAEL_TANG_VEE_MUN_ACQUIRED_HIBISCUS_SHARE_ON_9MAR_18MAR.jsp

Wow it's a 16 billion dollar stock. What big player are you taking about? Stop worrying about nonsense, otherwise the alien abducting will come back for you again.


>>>>>>>

Posted by fightingdragons > Apr 6, 2020 4:38 PM | Report Abuse

Looks like some big player is manipulating Top Glove's share to ensure it is still on an uptrend but on a very controlled and gradual pace. Why and who?

What is fomo?

>>>>>

Posted by qqq33333333 > Apr 6, 2020 2:17 PM | Report Abuse

ss.........share market all about trading, about FOMO............what has value investing got to do with bursa?

Wow, you guys must be far better planters than me. But then again you are probably bigger scale so better economies. Our group jointly has 280 acres of land in tawau, so far average yield is around 1.5 ton fresh fruit bunches @ rm380, with the refineries not being nice in buying, when they do buy at all. Payments are usually delayed too.

I wonder if there is any micro boiler compressor systems that I can buy from China to do ffb extractions so I don't need to be cheated by the big players?

Here is one of the reasons why I don't practise trading, and why traders are rarely successful long term.

At first you seem very smart, buying a small batch at below 50 cents and quickly selling it when it went higher. But two problems happen:
1. You learn nothing about the company or its long term prospects.
2. If you lose money trading ( as you invariably will), the will be a fear that happens in trading downwards, freezing you from buying something at huge discounts.
3. If you cutwin ( as you usually will), you will start to feel silly when the price jumps far higher than your sold price, causing your pride to stop you from buying more because you feel that if the stock dropped to such lows that it will continue to do so, not realising that this is not a new normal, but an abnormal opportunity that rarely knocks twice.


>>>>>>>>>

Sslee Haha,
No hurry will collect slowly but right now better to buy Gkent below 50 cents and sell back to Gkent above 50 cents, learn from hng33.
26/03/2020 4:02 PM

If you look at 2017, you already the figures that were coming into Gkent from lrt3 progress claims. After it was stopped in 2018 and revised to change them into main contractor instead of PDP partner. You can see the EARNINGS drop. Meaning the difference should be coming in from LRT3 progress claims. Now those claims were not cancelled, only delayed as per revised redesign of systems.

Now that all those progress claims for work done have been submitted and received to begin in 2020(48% completion), you will begin to see more revenue and earnings resolution from lrt3.

In any case, as a PDP partner their profit was capped at 6% of the project size previously,

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/08/mrcb-and-gkent-shares-rise-on-confirmation-as-pdp-for-lrt3

As seen here, profit margins for GKENT will be higher, but the total sum will be lower for the redesign, redesign details here:

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2018/07/17/lrt3-rationalisation-sufficient-to-meet-demand/

But gkent/mrcb is required to accept bigger risk as a fixed contract supplier instead of PDP partner. So they are allowed to use better subcons( no longer BN crony company sub like IJM), but hire specialist companies ( like the one I used to work for before retiring) who can give better price and do directly instead of sub sub like a standard bumiputera company.

I believe their profit margins will be in the range of 1.2 billion or 10% of the contract, similar to standard main contractor margins.

Meaning Gkent earnings will be around 50% of the JV, 600 million divided by 5 years, with a safer number similar to pre-najib lrt3 fees of 60-80 million a year.

Of course with PDP structure Kent took zero risk, as their fees were based on contract value. With new structure more risk, direct control as main con, better profit margins.

And if you believe that gkent used to be valued at rm4 reflecting the results? Knowing that lrt3 is still continuing and full payment guaranteed by federal government?

I thought I was having a deal buying GKENT at rm1.

Buying GKENT at 0.46, with 200 million cash at 30 million share buyback? It's a steal.


>>>>>>>>>


rururunnn Hi Phillip,

"the expected 20 million of earnings per quarter from lrt3 progress claim and the 5 million per quarter from mrt2 progress claim comes online."

Could you highlight on how did you get these numbers?

If these are EARNINGS per quarter, effectively per annum you're expecting:
80m earnings from LRT 3 progress *50% JV (just to be conservative, I take the 50% that belongs to MRCB out) = 40m
and MRT3 = 20m

That's a forecast of 60m without considering the construction and water division. and if they can achieve 60m for FY21, they will have a P/E of 5.5x and lower if you take into account the other revenue...

I'm still learning.. if you could share some thoughts that'll be great.

Same point. So if someone without any degree, PhD or real world experience and no certificate come in tells you that your filtering process is wrong, production can be increased by 25% by doing things his way, you will just nod your head and apply without understanding his background?

Look good luck to you.

You are arguing for the sake of arguing.

I stop now and let you think deeply if your past 3 years results on INSAS and xinquan and hengyuan " value investing" is based on nice articles written by sifu without results, and if you ever wondered if their results is the same as yours.

Sure, when you sell all your insas and buy JAKS. Or you forgot which one is your biggest shareholding? No confidence in insas already?

0.69 insas
6.9 QL

>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Apr 6, 2020 7:33 AM | Report Abuse

Haha philip,
Can l join the 9 months klang Bak kut Teh bet
Jak 0.85 vs QL 7.9.

So as a plantation manager I should listen to those PhD and degree holders Instead of those with experience and consistent results in my plantation like sslee? Ok then. No use talking to you when you are defending the indefensible.

FYI I can send you a list of investment gurus and stock subscription sellers that you can buy stock tips from, since you don't consider portfolio results important in trusting a stock guru.

It seems you will never understand the purpose of IEC, certification board and accreditations.

If someone went to your plantation and said everything sslee is doing in his plantation is wrong, too much fertilizer being used too little fertilizer being applied, things should be done this way and that way.

Will sslee just follow that guru and change his entire operational methods based on one lecture? I hope he doesn't.

Because if he finds out that his own methods give far superior results, while the guru doesn't even have any plantation experience at all, and that the guru is just using internet available information from successful billionaires to sell his classes?

Then it will be a shame, when sslee plantations go bankrupt.

>>>>>>>>>>

Sslee Dear all,
It seem Philip never get it that A high IQ or big fat investment portfolio won’t make you stand out.

Topglove also there. You want to complete against topglove? How about Serba dinamik?

I only have 6 stocks in my portfolio, all reinvested through many years with higher volume. If you say I am a Calvin tan with chun chun calls but over 40+ stocks then I have nothing to say.

But if I only have 6 stocks carefully chosen and researched and bought with conviction, can you really put it down to luck?

10 years holdings luck perhaps.

How about your portfolio? Ada ka? Other than mnrb, you don't seem to even have one.

In a way I respect DK66 for his depth of research and conviction. His quality of research is far more insightful than your many useless comments, backed with ZERO results.

Tin kosong

I can understand why OTB is irritated at i3 sometimes.

Learn your place little kid. No portfolio results ask but don't assume and don't denigrate. If you want to start, let your portfolio do your talking for you.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by CharlesT > Apr 6, 2020 7:15 AM | Report Abuse

without yr lucky QL yr portfolio very beautiful loh

My position is to not look that far but at revenue at hand. Same with the investors who bought units at Star Pacific. LAD site to inefficient management. The next milestone now is 1st December 2020. I personally believe that the Vietnamese government will not give a rat's ass on covid related delays as it is not force majeur as stipulated in contract.

Will it be delayed? If management can pull through to work together and achieve certification before the LAD, then shareholders can sleep safe.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Windy1974 > Apr 5, 2020 3:52 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Philips. You are indeed knowledgeable and your argument is valid. Yes, I am a JAKS holder and i reckon it's always good to have such meaningful arguments. You invested in solid and well managed companies and I always believe it's not the sector but the management that's crucial. Eg. Layhong vs QL.
On your statement below. Obviously, you have gathered some infos. The PP is run by a reputable China company. So, the issue would be what gonna happen when the money come to JAKS. If the management doesn't act in accordance to shareholders interest, can we kick them out? From shareholding, ALP doesn't seem to hold majority in JAKS? Can I say that the business is PP is so straight forward that any professional CEO would get the result as expected?

It seems you don't know stock picking at all.

>>>>>>>>

It seems u dont know him at all

And pretty soon lucky enough to get back kut teh lunch from stockraider and you.

Insas - 0.69 ( today 0.5)
Mnrb - 0.97 ( today 0.58)
QL. - 6.9 ( today 7.9)

Don't forget Klang Bak kut teh. Don't worry though, old uncle can't eat much anymore. Although you young kids definitely can eat alot these days. Tin kosong mah. Can fill in alot.

The only reason he has changed his tune is because of the poison pill defence andy ang did as CEO when someone starts holding more shares than you. Obviously at the cost of retail shareholders like CharlesT.

Why is it a joke? I am sure if kyy was the new CEO, with the profits he will start a very generous buyback plan and dividend payments to boost up the share price.

And he would meet every analyst this side of the world to promote the long term future of Jaks.

Due to criticisms and lack of reliable information online that I really did start investing in yinson in 2013, I instead created an i3 portfolio trackable starting in 2019. If you look at my transaction group for 1st January 2019, you will see that I put in at 4.15 which was the price in January. If course my beginning price is far below that. But tracked in 2019 for clarity.

As for 30 million in pchem, cash is only slightly half of that. You can see every quarter is being put into pchem and the balance amount is of margin purchase. So from the transaction group you can see my conviction in averaging down on PCHEM below IPO prices, my belief in pangerang becoming lowest cost supplier in Asia for petrochemicals, and backed by solid dividends each quarter. This is a recently bought position, as I previously held public bank since 2012, sold it in 2019 to buy PCHEM to participate in the growing of pangerang. I am doubly confident now that all those storage tanks will be used to store usd20 oil that will get much more profit when oil recovers to usd40 by next year. You will not be able to buy pchem for rm4.15 then, I can assure you.

As for why yinson is red? You can look to the transaction group as I buy every quarter consistently as the business fundamentals of yinson did not change 40+ billion orderbook (https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/yinson-wins-big-brazil) at very good rates. The price of oil is currently down, so the market perception is very bad.

It is the same with jaks, the market cap is down due to perception of the market. When it completes you will definitely see a recovery of price.

But whether you will see 300% or 500% it ultimately depends on jaks the company management and how it performs, not how jaks the power plant performs.

Remember you are not getting a single cent of the power plant distribution, jaks the company is.

I am sure if kyy was the CEO of Jaks, I will be the first to jump in. Kyy is a corporate raider if you ever saw one. But since Andy Ang is the CEO and with his track record of management, I still believe it is prudent to see what he does with the profits. Used properly? It will become a ytl. Spent frivolously? A protasco.

As a minority shareholder, there is nothing you can do about it except wait.

>>>>>>>>

johnmasino Philip:- Wah bro! I just had a looked at your portfolio of stocks. If you bought Yinson since 2013, why is your investment in Yinson in the red?

On a separate note, you invested over RM30 million into PCHEM? WOW! Thats huge!

Thanks!
05/04/2020 1:09 PM

A good read is the 1990 memo. Very simple and very important.
It is more important to reduce risk and consistent results. Meaning the best long term portfolios are those with low lows during crisis and low highs when speculation is at its highest.

If your portfolio has very high volatility, are you really growing your portfolio? Once you add your long term results, how does it look like?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

Nice book.

Here is better one. And it's free.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html

More importantly, his letters are backed by portfolio results every year.

Here is another one. Also free.

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

Which carries more weight? Whose writings do you trust more? The ones with a portfolio? Or the ones without?

What's the difference between a Mary Buffett, Peter schiff and kcchongz and a real superinvestor?

Both are great speakers, writers and academics.

But results? It definitely comes from other sources than stockpicking. Portfolios? Nada.

It's easy to comment and claim when you are not needed to perform.

"Your way" of value investing?

Taking credit for the experience of super investors around the world is not something to write a book about.

>>>>>>>>>

Yes, my way of value investing may not be suitable for everyone, but it is a proven successful way from the academic research and the experience of numerous super investors in the world.

Yes, I totally agree here. Very few investors practise what they preach, and very few have the results to back up their big claims. The really good ones either have too much time, or can't be bothered to write a book, and other piggy back on their success.

If you think about it carefully, warren buffet has never written a single book, neither has charlie munger.

The reason why we respect them so much is because they write annual letters as a reading guide to their PORTFOLIO results so investors can compare results with the reading material together, not in vacuum.

The funny thing is, many so called sifu's out there publish books, run classes, subscription services without once showing any of their performance portfolio to the public.

Not jon choivo. (with his RM5,000 research).
Not ricky yeo. (with his blogs and academia).
Not kc chongz. ( but do read his new book, it has all the words of warren buffet, with none of the results).
Not calvintaneng. (but he has a whatsapp group of johor sifus like some gangster causeway bay movie).
Not icon8888 ( with his holland remarks and wonderful articles writing with one hand behind the wheel and the other frantically pressing the buy button on the phone app).


>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Flintstones > Apr 5, 2020 12:47 PM | Report Abuse

Sslee eventhough stubborn is constantly learning from the sifus here. He is one who don’t pretend to be expert and is a humble man

Post removed.Why?

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What does this mean? I don't understand. Can you clarify an example of how disclosure will influence your decisions? And make it subpar?

I can show you the portfolio of big traders like paul Tudor Jones, George Soros and Jim Rogers. The disclosure of their results doesn't seem to hurt them much as it is required by the law.

But to be honest I don't really care about traders as they use general momentum theory which they then apply equally to every stock, every trend. But results always seem to vary.

So in general I don't really care to learn about trader and their trades.

But neither do I want to care about investors who buy and keep stocks for 10 years.

I find learning about their analysis and the subsequent actions more interested in to learn about.


>>>>>>>>>

qqq33333333 Philips...... u think everyone buy and keep for 10 years one meh... For traders, traders should not disclose what they have because the disclosure will influence their decisions making them sub-par
05/04/2020 10:24 AM

Finally coolBull is back.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/133552.jsp

Appreciate your review on NETX as per your 31st March 2020 mini competition.

Well done, NETX is best performing stock so far, 50% performance.
As usual, DLADY is horrible, worst performing stock, only 4.88%

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by CoolBull > Apr 2, 2020 11:26 PM | Report Abuse

Both Shitup & Mikeshit are sufferers of attention seeking syndrome (ASS)

But with kind of somewhat different temperaments

Shitup is like the non stop nagging & hustling type. You can only stop his nagging & hustling with some good rotan whipping on his old ponddan tua arse very probably.

Mikeshit is of the somewhat more laid back type. Thats why he is into 6 hour b2b ponddan massage & stuff like that. He still does his non stop hustling also though. But uses a lot of recycled same old shit kind of thing every day.

i3 investor forum should be a place of sharing information, investment strategy and stock picking concepts. All good aside, how do you split between the water spouting individuals with no results and those that have actually bought the stocks and done their research? A simple trackable portfolio.

I applaud Mr SSLEE for being honest about his results and his portfolio. I believe keeping a record of your portfolio definitely guides one in being brutally honest and thus improving one's ability to learn in the future and constantly evolving their stock picking and investing ability.

The important thing is not if someone makes or loses money in the stock market.

The important thing is learning and improving every day.

I think Mr SSLee is more of a gentleman than book writing sifus, trading call sellers, subscriptiong services or those who profess their results and buycalls everywhere (with no portfolio results to show for it) than investors like KCChongz, Ricky Yeo, Choivo Capital, Icon8888, QQQ3, Greentrades, any of the IB bankers selling mutual funds (and their performance) and mostly almost everyone on the forums.

If warren buffett can post his portfolio, if howard marks can post his portfolio, if bill ackman can post his portfolio, if peter lynch can post his portfolio, why can't you the invisible internet blogger not do the same thing?

I personally believe in this:

every investment class selling guru or trading sifu should preface his class with this claim : "THIS IS MY TRACKABLE ONLINE PORTFOLIO WHICH CANNOT BE DELETED OR EDITED. THIS IS MY 10 YEAR RESULTS. THIS IS MY POSITION IN THIS AND THAT STOCK. WHEN I BOUGHT THIS STOCK AND WHEN I SOLD THIS STOCK."

This is even better, thanks for being honest.

Very good question, and a simple answer. I bought yinson in 2013, and only started updating a i3 trackable portfolio of trades in 2019 (a feature which very few investors on i3 even do, especially those sifus selling subscription classes and buy/sell trading calls). Therefore, if my results do not jive with with my performance results, then you have every right to criticize my comments. But for the greater part of the year right up to before the oil war (which does not affect FPSO yinson) and covid-19, when everything is going down (except my other major shareholding topglove which I bought 30K shares in 15/3/19 at 4.48) yinson share price is up at RM7 prior to 2 contract wins.

But yes, yinson is a horrible company, bad results, no increase in revenue, no profits, debt and losses.

The point here is not to tell you what stocks to buy: (hint: don't buy yinson), but how to buy utilities (hint: buy it a discount to its earnings and revenue, not potential).

The question is not to criticize and say anyone who bought jaks at 1.20-1.4 and entry till now is still red (that would be silly and you learn nothing). The thing is to understand why you are buying a company like Jaks (because KYY promoted it? Or OTB promoted it? Or concrete earnings and concrete results)?

Who declared it a secrecy clause? Where is this clause written? Obviously the chinese knew about the profit margins prior to investing, did anyone check with them then? Most importantly, how will the profits and earnings from this powerplant be used?

You are buying shares in JAKS the company. Not shares in JV company of the powerplant in vietnam.

Big huge difference in my opinion. For that, I am willing to wait and see how they reward the shareholders of JAKS the company before I make a decision.

But yes, at USD 20 per barrel of oil, Yinson is a terrible deal. Whoever buys it will "regret" it, assuming the price of oil will remain at USD 20 for the next 3-5 years.

>>>>>>>

Posted by andr > Apr 5, 2020 9:28 AM | Report Abuse

i just want to know why someone wants to swing Jaks buyers into Yinson when his Yinson entry till now is still red? (don't worry, will delete this later if hurts anything)

Management has other ways of profiting, either through BOD approved salary for CEO, emoluments for directors, and raising of warrants.

>>>>>>>

Posted by sell > Apr 5, 2020 9:23 AM | Report Abuse

If TP RM 2-5 can believe why Andy Ang yet to buy?

What do you mean cash outflow or cash inflow?

If you to put it in simple english, their net cash inflow (payment from government to rising sun 2 solar power plant), revenue from FIT payment is RM 29 million a year. After they received all the payments for energy generation, payment of tax and operational costs their NET PROFIT is 22 million to owners of the company. Meaning, YINSON is getting around 8 million a year of the payment from this JV. As the company is doing purely solar farm only, and no other business, this 8 million is going to yinson pocket every year for the next 25 years.

So I don't understand how you went from 22 million to 3 million all of a sudden.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by DK66 > Apr 5, 2020 8:54 AM | Report Abuse

If cash outflow is around 22m annually, Net cash inflow is around 8m. Yinson's 37.4% share is around 3m. It will take about 22 years to get back its capital and loan ? I cannot understand the logic......

Post removed.Why?

Tracking sslee performances, we will assume 1 year ago prices from the day he started posting up his holdings online.

Yes this is the right attitude to take. I'm not a Calvin tan here asking you to sell jaks but NETX. And if you think yinson is expensive, wait until you see the arguments I have had with business valuation of QL which is a much larger holding that I have, and those who think holding into a pe50 company insane. And yet this PE50 company is still higher than last year prices when everything else is tanking. My trackable portfolio here for review( started in 2019, because I cannot expect anyone to believe my performance prior to 2019):

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

In either case:

Yinson paid 32 million for the 37.4% stake, and 35 million to pay off the liabilities of rising sun debt. This clears up cost structure.

The power generation is fixed indr 2.44 per kwh. And they generated slightly under 30 million in revenue yearly in 2018,2019 from their solar farm, with debt obligations, operational expenses and taxes coming down to around 22 million a year in their 3rd year of operations. There is no reason material cost, very low maintenance compared to rotating turbines, no possibility of combustion explosion,. And receiving steady payment already from India government.

Yinson has 3 billion in cash from their perpetual 7.85% sukuk bond.

How rational is your investment into Jaks? Have you been to Vietnam, or talked to Vietnam electricity board? How about the coal sources? Firm and guaranteed as per contract stipulation? Have you even seen the reported contract agreement which I still do not understand why is still kept OSA? Has Vietnam paid a single cent yet to Jaks? Will there be any delay LAD obligations due to covid-19?

Would you have believed me if I said I had already met the management at the time? And they could not clear my questions as an active investor?

Business valuation consists of a thousand factors that can only be guesstimates, and simplifying a business into a few factors like pe valuation, roc based on unrealized returns is very very dangerous.

But again, I wish everyone all the best and may everyone make money from the disaster that is covid-19, and have a good year ahead.

This forum is a wonderful place to learn new information, and I hope everyone pools information together.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by DK66 > Apr 4, 2020 8:41 PM | Report Abuse

No, I m not interested in buying Yinson. If i m interested in Yinson, I should focus on its FPSO businesses.

However, I m interested in the rationale behind Yinson's investment decision to acquire a minority stake in Rising Sun

Hi Johnmasino,

I think you are very mistaken. I did not tell you to buy yinson not an I recommending the stock to you at all. In fact, if anything I would recommend you to stay as far away from stocks that you do not know anything about at all and to avoid listening to online sifu recommendations on buying a stock. Yinson could be a fraud stock for all you can know. Fyi I have been holding it for 7 years now, and it is not a penny stock that I need to do any recommending.

My explanation was plain and simple. I was only going yinson as an example. It could easily be topglove and their mistake in buying adgenta, or Elon musk buying a share in Tesla, or Berkshire Hathaway buying Midwestern.

The idea I'm trying to push across is business valuation. Not stock picks.

The point I'm trying to get across is how retail investors should be valuing and buying into utility companies.

Aka:
1. Always buy concrete revenues and earnings at a DISCOUNT, not potential. Because for utilities former is fixed for 25 years, the latter can be whatever number you want it to be.
2. Never value a company in vacuum, as a small investor with no power to influence the board of directors, management, business performance and history of company performance should be weighted with whatever "potential" the company is trying to promote. Especially when you have no access to contract disclosure or earnings from plant operations.
3. A bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush. - Charles munger



>>>>>>>>>

Posted by johnmasino > Apr 4, 2020 6:53 PM | Report Abuse

Philip:- Thanks for recommending Yinson. I will keep this stock in my radar and will only buy when Yinson is trading below RM2. Right now, I will not chase Yinson even at the current price which is way too inflated and expensive.

It already had since I bought it in 2013. I haven't some a share since. So I don't see why it cannot continue to perform and give me huge growth. How long have you held jaks to give you such confidence? Has jaks management already given earnings guidance? Are the dividends as big as you would expect?

I love OTB quote on Peter Lynch, one of my favorite fund managers.

OTB
"I think you have to learn that there's a company behind every stock and there's only one real reason why stocks go up.
Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies" - Peter Lynch
04/04/2020 11:09 AM

But I much prefer this one:

There seems to be an unwritten rule on Wall Street: If you don’t understand it, then put your life savings into it. Shun the enterprise around the corner, which can at least be observed, and seek out the one that manufactures an incomprehensible product. - Peter Lynch.


>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by johnmasino > Apr 4, 2020 6:28 PM | Report Abuse

Philip:- Can Yinson potentially go up 400 to 500% from it's current price of RM4.81?

Post removed.Why?

Yinson paid 67 million for a 37.4% share of the company. At that rate, they will be getting 10.472 million of the revenue generation. Ergo, they are buying it at a lower price to the generation capability. This is sound business principles.

Ergo: they provide cash and liquidity to rising sun energy, and rising sun gives up a share of the company at a discount ( but with certainty of cash), while yinson can afford to wait ( but with a3 year certainty of payment and revenue in the books already).

This is how business should be. Minimize risk with credible profits. It is always better to buy a factory lot which is tenanted and paying monthly than to buy an unit unbuilt and potentially overpriced when you have no clarity of earnings.

>>>>>>>>

Therefore, with only RM28m a year, how to achieve payback period of below 8 years ?

This is a simple accounting mistake which I couldn't edit or delete once key in. ( Funny how that works to stop fake entries. My total selling was 650k shares of QL at 8.6 to invest in serbadk and others. But as I keyed in wrongly ( I put in 200k shares in ql instead of serbadk), I had to adjust the amount so it reflected properly.

>>>>>>>>>

By the way I am curious what is your thinking process when you did buy and sell QL at RM 8.60 on 17th Feb 2020?
Sell QL: -700,000 at RM 8.60
Sell QL: -150,000 at RM8.60
Buy QL: +200,000 at RM8.60

I first night into gkent at rm1. I thought it was a good deal then, since it dropped from it's highs of rm4. At today's prices it is a wonderful deal. I'm buying more right after the QR results come out, which I expect credible news.

This is a simple accounting mistake which I couldn't edit or delete once key in. ( Funny how that works to stop fake entries. My total selling was 650k shares of QL at 8.6 to invest in serbadk and others. But as I keyed in wrongly ( I put in 200k shares in ql instead of serbadk), I had to adjust the amount so it reflected properly.

>>>>>>>>>

By the way I am curious what is your thinking process when you did buy and sell QL at RM 8.60 on 17th Feb 2020?
Sell QL: -700,000 at RM 8.60
Sell QL: -150,000 at RM8.60
Buy QL: +200,000 at RM8.60

Post removed.Why?

Wow i3lurker so many comments, you seem to be a very intelligent investor. What stocks are you holding?

That is not altogether unreasonable. I believe if you buy the shares today and also at my buying price of 46 cents, the dividends will be safe once the expected 20 million of earnings per quarter from lrt3 progress claim and the 5 million per quarter from mrt2 progress claim comes online.

Here are facts:

1. lrt3 and mrt2 and the 2 hospitals are still running, meaning contracts and their orderbook are firm. Prime minister has already guaranteed payment as these 2 mega projects are feeding thousands of contractors and workers. Hospital handover and final claim + 2 year retention (5% of 500 million project is around 25 million of balance profit) incoming.

2. Lrt3 progress billing was delayed, not cancelled. It will achieve 45% completion by 2020, a huge progress.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mrcbgeorge-kent-aims-complete-o...

3. Gkent main water business is still running on all cylinders with demand more than supply.

4. Gkent is buying back shares aggressively, gkent current outstanding shares dropped from 563 million to 538 million outstanding. I expect gkent to end share buyback around the 500 million nosh mark.

5. Gkent has huge cash load with a history of paying dividends. It paid sustainable dividends, paying out 40 million of 80 million. I believe until 2024 this will be sustainable.

As a reasonable assumption, I receive around 60k in dividends per year from QL. I spent 200k in 2009 buying ql shares, and in total with real cash, dividend reinvestment etc I have put in around 850k into QL. So if I told you that on a cost basis my QL investment gives me 7% dividend every year, would you believe me or consider it an unreasonable assumption.

Always look to the future, not the 6 months and 1 year future. But at minimum 3 years and beyond. Then you can consider yourself really investing, rather than just playing with stocks.



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Rwkl That is a unreasonable assumption given the current situation. I expect and fully support a cut to preserve cash
01/04/2020 10:36 PM

I have been a trader for many many years during the 90's. One thing that I realized was a tendency I had when trading stocks is to fear buying a stock when the price has dropped so low. Obviously when you get your hands burnt trading a falling knife there is a psychological trauma that makes you fear buying even as rationally a stocks short term risk drops the lower the stock price falls.

On the other hand, the inverse happens when the stock goes up from lows. Maybe you have made a few trading profit from a small jump from 0.46 and sold at 0.55. wow! 20% profit. Brilliant! But then as the prices goes up you start to feel silly and pride takes over, thinking that I've already made my 20%, why not wait for the stock price to drop to 46 cents before I buy it again.

Problem is: will it ever drop to such once in a blue moon lows ever again?

Once I started investing rationally with a long term mindset, everything changed for me. Instead of buying and selling everything in sight, I chose very carefully what stocks to buy and hold on.

In GKENT case: how did I arrive at buying my entire final position at 46 cents ?( https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp#tabs_group2 )

At 538 million nosh, paying 46 cents I would be buying the entire company for 50 million, minus it's cash of 200 million give or take. That is a brilliant once in a lifetime deal. The factory alone is worth 50 million, what more its Singapore and hong Kong water meter contracts and inventories.

That is how I finally made money. Not by trading small amounts and playing the stock market. But by participating in the growth of a company.


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dlau8899 From 1.38 to 0.52 , more than 50 percent discount, if buy above 1.00 , why not buy now.
26/03/2020 12:12 AM

Post removed.Why?

They spent 67 million to buy a 37.4% share of riding sun energy pte LTD. The generation is price is idnr 2.44 per kwh, plant started in 2017, generation is 140mw, with sunlight hours of 4-5 per day.

Using their LSS rates their solar revenue is around 28 million per year. The payback period is estimated at below 8 years. With main components inverters ( 10 year guarantee) and solar panel ( 21 year guarantee) Contract is firm for 25 years until 2043.

But more importantly they step into a very safe, low maintenance, contract awarded and plant running project and step into a much larger market in India.

Much more importantly ( which everyone seems to ignore with blinders on), is their past history with large projects aka their FPSO project, which is also running under the same long term contracts.

Their management is strong with a long history of growth, revenue and earnings increases, profitable ventures, good strong management.

You know that profits from all their ventures will be carefully husbanded into safe earnings ventures.

Jaks went from a steel pipe trader to manufacturer to property developer to power plant builder to solar farm builder.

All with no prior experience or successful handover or good use of profits, dividends or clarity in management. Multiple changes of management, lawsuits, delivery delays, LAD, production hiccups. Still trying to find a buyer for loss making evolve concept mall.

All your calculations DK66 is assumed on the fact that the power plant is a spin off and standalone profit generating entity. If it was my young friend, I would be rushing in to invest in it. Your numbers seem reliable and sound.

But it isn't. The revenues and earnings of the power plant will be used to pay for property investment projects, solar farm projects or funnelled elsewhere in Vietnam because the management has already shown an inclination of doing so and not putting shareholders interest at heart.

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Hyflux treatment and desalination business did not fail. The business went bankrupt because it jumped into a huge project in tuas without understanding the entire long term aspects of it. One project because the download of many profitable business lines.

So if you thought your were making money by investing in hyflux when it announced it's power plant project? You need to understand the difference between speculation and investing.

You make make or lose money, I wish you all the best. But never do calculations in vacuum.