The market reflects the "judgments of milions of investors, manyu of whom are hihgly knowledgeable about the prospects for the specific companies that make up the broad stock price indices.

It is indeed difficult to analyse a bubble: when it started, why it started and why it burst. There are no hard and fast definitions of a bubble, for one thing, and there are often a number of reasons for the bust, which does make analysis challenging, even for policymakers.

A bubble is formed when prices become based on something other than expected returns.

Various terms have also been used to describe this phenomenon: "animal spirits", "the madness of crowds" and "bandwagon effect".

What these phrases all describe is a reckless behavioural process whereby exuberance leads invetors to observe what others are doing and simply join in.

The euphoria of the crowd or herd will pump money into that favoured stock or sector, inflating the price of the stock(s). The price(s) become detached from the fundamentals of the business(es).

Focus on long term compounding.

At age 65 years, Warren Buffett's networth was $3 billion. A lot of his networth came after his 65th birthday.

Our minds are not trained in such way to handle the absurdities of compounding.

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Posted by calvintaneng > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

This 3iii is unethical in investing in drink stocks and sin stocks

should be called "Dark role of investing


see
>>>


Many Muslim friends invest only in syariah compliant stocks. Some don't. My friend does not invest in 'sin stocks': these include alcohol businesses, cigarette businesses and gambling businesses. Many also do invest in these stocks. In the final analysis, each invests based on various personal criterias and personal comfort zones.

My Singaporean friend is "ethical" as he labelled 3iii as "unethical". Of course, from my observations, this is just another dishonest remark by my Singaporean friend. My Singaporean friend spun many stories on so many stocks. All were aimed at getting forum participants interest and participation. However, the few occasions when I did do in depth analysis on my Singaporean friend's activities, my conclusion is that this Singaporean friend is not honest. Often instead of engaging on some intellectual discussion on stocks, the whole engagement turned into a noisy market place, promoting at any costs.

Our Singaporean friend spun an unlikely story on Netx. His side kicked, since disappeared, similarly backed him enthusiastically. How ethical was our Singaporean friend's promotion of Netx, that lasted 2 years? Pity those who believed in his stories (I could not fathom where these stories came from, other than our Singaporean friend's active imagination and verbal diarrhoea) and got sucked into our Singaporean friend's active and "ethical" promotion. Our Singaporean friend believed he found the greatest bargain and sold 8 apartments to invest into the stock. How not to believe his story, given his conviction; he told you so, selling 8 apartments just to invest into this single stock. 😄

A simple heuristic I adhere to always and even up to today: you cannot have a good deal from a dishonest chap. Well, you should know the game you wish to play. Invest in yourself, your education and be independent in your thinking.

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Posted by Sslee > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

3iii is ethical because he did not misled people into investing in penny stocks like Netx.

>>>>

👍😇

The Importance of Critical Thinking:

To avoid being misled by emotions, biases, or social pressures, Housel encourages readers to think critically about their financial decisions. It’s important to question the narratives and stories we hear, especially when they are too good to be true or based on unrealistic expectations.

One of the key traits of successful investors is the ability to be patient and disciplined. The best investment decisions are often those made without trying to time the market or chase short-term trends. The importance of sticking to a long-term plan and not reacting impulsively to market fluctuations

My Singaporean friend,

What is your projected earnings of TSH for this financial year?
What is your projected FCF for TSH for this financial year?

Summary:
Philip opines PChem is a good company in a cyclical business that is presently undervalued. Its earnings are cyclical and he anticipates big earnings in this sector upturn.

SSLee: Falls in love with Insas because he opines it is deeply undervalued. To him, Insas is a safe investment, low risk due to its very low price to book.

OTOH, Philip thinks Insas is appropriately priced due to its good/gruesome company and poor management, and it is a value trap. It is cheap for a reason and continues to remain cheap for a very very long time.

Banks likely to see quarterly earnings growth of 8% to 9% y-o-y — CGS

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733418

>>
Jayatiasa plantation on rented land
Lepah Plantation: 5,149
Daro Plantation: 11,681
Sawai Plantation: 6,050
Lassa Plantation: 21,300
Kabang Plantation: 2,700
Totsl 46,880

>>>>

In this company, we need to calculate its rent- or lease-adjusted ROCE.

To calculate a lease- adjusted ROCE, you first need to estimate the value of the rented land that would be in Jayatiasa's balance sheet if it had bought them outright. You then need to add this estimate to the previous calculation of capital employed, which didn't include this adjustment.

What do I opine on Akmal? A lot of noise. Little substance. Pray he improves.

We look to AI to lead.

Please lead us to new heights.

The Democrats protected Biden in his days of his cognitive decline. They hid the truth. In the end, they also sacrificed him through arranging an early debate with Trump.

Democrats had shown the ugly face of politics the last 8 years, from my observations. Lying about Russian operatives. Lying about Hunter's laptop. Impeachment processes twice during Trump's first Presidency. Was the election rigged in 2020? The counting process lasted so long compared to the latest. Prosecuting Trump on so many counts.

Trump is "mad" but he is truthful. You can trust him.

When Trump wins:

1. Shale oil mining will be restarted. US will be energy independent. Oil price should fall.
2. Hopefully, he will be able to bring peace to Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Palestinian. Wars are terrible events, best prevented always.
3. US-China relationship will continue to be strained. SEA countries may benefit from this.

What is Risk?

The major RISK facing you is the possibility of not reaching your long-term investment goal through the growth of your funds in real terms. And the greatest enemy of reaching those goals is INFLATION. Nothing is safe from inflation. Short-term price volatility is NOT risk for investors who have time horizons 5, 10, 15 or 30 years away. Volatility is the friend of the long term investor. The most important friends of your investment goal are COMPOUNDING and TIME.

Invest for the long term. I have to invest annually huge new funds. Investing regularly, dollar cost averaging in up or down markets, ignoring timing, always pricing, staying concentrated, high quality businesses .... No need to change what has been working for decades. Even the stocks that have dropped 50% are multi-baggers in my books.

Our Singaporean friend is having "tunnel vision". :-)
Sadly for him, his side-kick stockraider has disappeared, for unknown reasons. 🤔

Looks like our Singaporean friend is the patsy in the game. :-)

Term loan of RM100,000,000
On 25 July 2022, a subsidiary of the Company, DSSB was granted a term loan of RM100,000,000
with a tenure of up to seven years from the date of the first drawdown of the facility. DSSB had made
full drawdown of the term loan on 22 August 2022. The proceeds from this term loan were used to
partially finance the acquisition of Ladang Permai Damai Sdn Bhd. The term loan is subject to floating
interest rates ranging from 5.02% to 5.27% (2023: 3.95% to 5.09%) per annum. As at 30 September
2024, the outstanding term loan amounted to RM96,000,000 (2023:RM100,000,000).

Group operating profit for Q4 FY2024 declined by 27.9% to RM119.9 million (Q4 FY2023: RM166.2
million) attributed to start-up costs from our integrated dairy farm, restructuring costs, unrealised
foreign exchange losses and lower profit contribution from F&B Thailand. This decline was partly
offset by a higher profit contribution from F&B Malaysia

Assuming the PE for this sector is 20.
The market is pricing Farm Fresh at a hefty price, in anticipation of future growth.
On the other hand, which has the better reward : risk profile today, as an investment?

All investing is always value investing. :-)

Farm Fresh
Market cap 3.5B Earnings 83.15M PE 42.12

Dutch Lady
Market cap 1.94B Earnings 88.32M PE 21.97

Huge opportunity cost for not seeking out quality plantation companies.

Looking forward, the company aims for greater profitability through its new facility and expanded production capacity, potentially enhancing shareholder dividends in the years ahead​

What a terrible promotion by our Singaporean friend of this counter. He spoke to Penelope and that was enough for him. Till today, this company continues to lose money.

In general, it's a bad time to buy refinery stocks when crude prices are high, crack spreads are low, demand for refined products is weak, or the sector faces increased regulatory and competitive pressures. Overvaluation, seasonal lulls, and structural challenges from renewable competition also reduce refinery stocks' attractiveness.
For long-term success, it’s best to wait until conditions support stronger profitability, with favorable crack spreads, demand growth, and manageable compliance costs.

The most profitable conditions for a refinery involve a combination of low crude oil prices, high product demand (especially seasonally), wide crack spreads, efficient operations, and minimal disruptions from compliance costs.
The ability to adapt to market conditions and diversify products also plays a role in enhancing profitability during favorable market conditions.

An oil refinery’s profitability depends on managing input costs (crude oil), maximizing the crack spread by producing high-demand refined products, controlling operating expenses, and responding to market conditions. Effective risk management and adapting to shifts toward renewables and emissions reduction are increasingly essential for long-term competitiveness.

Example of Revenue Flow:
Purchasing Crude: A refinery buys crude oil at $80 per barrel.
Refining: The refinery processes the crude and produces gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, each with its own demand and pricing.
Selling Refined Products: If refined products sell for $100 per barrel on average, the crack spread is $20 per barrel.
Profit: After covering operating costs (e.g., $10 per barrel), the refinery makes a $10 per barrel profit.

Stocks prices do not go relentlessly in a uptrend. Their prices are volatile.

Prices of great companies are likewise volatile in the short term. However, due to their ability to grow their intrinsic values, the stock prices do reflect their fundamentals in the long term.

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Posted by Sslee > 7 hours ago | Report Abuse

Mr. Market often acts as a Manic-Depressive not very true. Mr.Market is actually acting on market supply and demand imbalance.

Many if not all industries/stocks are cyclical in nature with their up and down cycle. Thus timing the cycle is very inportant if you aim to outperform the market.

If you are at rich as Philip then no worry you can continues average down your cost at the down cycle and if you do that long enough then for sure the up cycle will come one day and your stocks start to perform again

But for many of us that is not so rich and can't afford to continues average down while waiting for the up cycle then knowing the market supply and demand imbalance condition will stand you a good chance of buying low and selling high.

By the way Philip Pchem is now on the down cycle ie supply growth outpace the demand growth.
>>>>

Short term versus long term

Over a one-year period, most stock price fluctuations are driven by changes in valuation. In the long run stock prices are driven by the evolution of the intrinsic value of a company.

This means that in the short term the valuation you pay for a company is very important while in the long term the rate at which a company can grow its earnings per share is the crucial factor.

Counting my blessings. 🌍

I am blessed with plenty.
Good health: physically and mentally.
Great family and friends.
Financial freedom.
Living in a lovely and safe neighbourhood.
Spiritually fulfilled.

Short term versus long term

Over a one-year period, most stock price fluctuations are driven by changes in valuation. In the long run stock prices are driven by the evolution of the intrinsic value of a company.

This means that in the short term the valuation you pay for a company is very important while in the long term the rate at which a company can grow its earnings per share is the crucial factor.

Always buy stocks at a discount

You want to buy a stock at its cheapest possible price and valuation.

The beautiful thing about the stock market is that Mr. Market often acts as a Manic-Depressive. You can use this volatility to your advantage by buying when there is blood running through the streets.

How to think about valuation? All intelligent investing is value investing: you try to buy stocks for less thanw hat they are worth.

Here are some valuation ratios you can use:
- P/E
- EY (Earnings yield)
- P/B
- PEG ratio
- FCF yield

🤔

Iinvestor Blogger
Calvin Tan
With 31 years of experience, Calvin began his
investing journey in 1992 with an IPO bui
struggled with losses for many years. When
Calvin stumbled upon a book by Dr. Neoh
Soon Kean on value investing , in the year
2005, and has been applying these principles
to his trading strategy. Since then, he has
managed to make up for his past losses and
also achieved significant profits from his
investments. Now, as a firm believer in the
power of valle investing, Calvin is passionate
about sharing his knowledge with others.

It is not too difficult to calculate the intrinsic value of this company


KIM LOONG
Quality
FY 2024
Annual revenue 1.5B 5Yr CAGR 11.8%
PAT 148m 5Yr CAGR 23.2%

Management
Net Profit Margin 9.7%
ROE 18%

Valuation
PE 14.5
DY 5.45% (DPO 88%)
P/B 2.59
NTA RM 0.92

25.10.2024
Price today 2.38 per share
Market Cap 2.326b
Number of share 977.23m


Comments:
Revenues and earnings growing consistently from 2020 to 2023. Profit declined 33% Y-o-Y in 2024 cf with 2023, due to lower CPO prices.

Its net profit margins grew from 8.1% in FY 22 to 9.7% in 24. In 2025, 1H year showed net profit margins of 11.2%.

Its PE from 2022 to 2025: In 2020, its PE was the highest at 31.25. PE shrunk to 14 in 2022. Between 2022 to 2025, its PE ranged from 10 to 14. Its PE today is 14.37.

Its share price had risen from 50 sen in 2021 to RM 2.380 today. Share price has risen due to better earnings (increasing EPS, fundamentals) and also due to PE expansion (from PE 10 to PE 14, sentiment).



Dividends paid fluctuated over the years, though these were higher since 2020. It has paid dividends continuously over the last 17 years.

NTA RM 0.92

Quality
FY 2024
Annual revenue 1.5B 5Yr CAGR 11.8%
PAT 148m 5Yr CAGR 23.2%

Management
Net Profit Margin 9.7%
ROE 18%

Valuation
PE 14.5
DY 5.45% (DPO 88%)
P/B 2.59

25.10.2024
Price today 2.38 per share
Market Cap 2.326b
Number of share 977.23m


Comments:
Revenues and earnings growing consistently from 2020 to 2023. Profit declined 33% Y-o-Y in 2024 cf with 2023, due to lower CPO prices.

Its net profit margins grew from 8.1% in FY 22 to 9.7% in 24. In 2025, 1H year showed net profit margins of 11.2%.

Its PE from 2022 to 2025: In 2020, its PE was the highest at 31.25. PE shrunk to 14 in 2022. Between 2022 to 2025, its PE ranged from 10 to 14. Its PE today is 14.37.

Its share price had risen from 50 sen in 2021 to RM 2.380 today. Share price has risen due to better earnings (increasing EPS, fundamentals) and also due to PE expansion (from PE 10 to PE 14, sentiment).



Dividends paid fluctuated over the years, though these were higher since 2020. It has paid dividends continuously over the last 17 years.

Overview of the Plantation stocks

Only a few can be held long term (e.g. United Plantation, Kim Loong).
If you must play this sector, be very sure why you are investing into the stock. It is so undervalued that it is a cigar-but t investing situation (quoting Buffett).
However, you will be a lot richer if you stay with high quality growth companies which you can buy at fair price and hold for the long term in a concentrated portfolio. (This presumes you have the ability and the temperament to do so.)

Our Singaporean friend promoted NETX at 2 sen per share, highlighting to everyone that it was cheap as it was going to 20 sen per share. Recalled he was so convicted, he sold 8 houses to buy into NETX. Not only did NETX not grow, it got decimated ?90%.

Our Singaporean friend does not seem to learn his mistakes, repeating these frequently. Thank you for allowing us to observe and learn from his mistakes.

Is TSH a great business?
How good is its management?
Is its stock deeply undervalued?

Comparing TSH and United Plantation can highlight the differences in the quality of these 2 companies plantation businesses and the qualities of their managements.

In April 2022, United Plantation was prices RM 16 per share and TSH was priced RM 1.78 per share (when recommended and promoted by our Singaporean friend).

It is better to buy a great company at fair price than a gruesome company at great price. (Quoting Buffett).
Many "investors" lost money because they became interested in a stock at a time when its business was at a temporary good period. (Quoting Benjamin Graham).

A great company grows its revenues and earnings consistently.
Its management maintains or grows its profit margins consistently.
Its ROE and ROIC are high.


Its earnings are high quality, they generate a lot of cash flow from its operations CFO.
Its capex is generally less than 25% of its CFO, thus, it generates high consistent growing FCFs.

Due to its high, consistent and growing FCFs, the company has little debts, can grow organically, can buy back its own shares and also rewards its shareholders through dividend or through reinvestment into new growth projects.

Stay focus on fundamentals.

How much cash will you receive from the company over the next few years?
Will these future cash flows be consistent and show increasing trend?
What rate of return you can receive risk free today?
What rate of return are you targeting in your investing for the next 5 years or 10 years?

Given your approach requiring a low risk, high reward approach (reward potential:downside risk = 3:1) and a CAGR of > 15% per year over the next 5 years, how much are you willing to pay to own this stock today?

All shareholders have equal entitlements.