Netx was 2 sen and our Singapore friend said it was very CHEAP and would be a multibaggers. He sold 8 houses to invest into this stock.


Today, our Singaporean friend could buy this stock CHEAPER than when he first promoted.

Was the market smart or was the Singaporean smarter?

In Holland (not Holland Road in Singapore), people sold their mansions to buy tulips!!! We see this behaviour repeated again and again, just look at the thread in NETX. :-)

Observing this Singaporean over these years:

1. Doesn't know his circle of competence. Always straying outside this.
2. Doesn't know valuation. Selling his 8 houses to buy Netx, like those who sold mansions to buy Tulips during the Tulip mania.

Observing this Singaporean over these years:

1. Doesn't know his circle of competence. Always straying outside this.
2. Doesn't know valuation. Selling his 8 houses to buy Netx, like those who sold mansions to buy Tulips during the Tulip mania.

Be greedy when everyone is fearful.

Human behaviour is almost predictable.

In the Tulip mania, people sold mansions to buy Tulip.

In this forum, we witnessed a Singaporean sold 8 houses to buy Netx.

"-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWENuDSu05Q Indonesia’s $33B Capital Relocation Plan Is Imploding | WSJ Breaking Ground

https://youtu.be/fWENuDSu05Q?si=8mukZ3iQr6167Trj

Not all is hanky-dori in Nusantara

Is it true that this man is paid to promote? 🤔

>>>
14 hours ago


calvintaneng

While many followed Calvin to great success

Mikecyc only arrived in i3 by
year 2019 still a newbie

Prudentinvestor a greenhorn only joined i3 in 2023 ( know very little but talked a lot )

3iii atau iinvestbodoh a dinosaur totally irrelevant after bankrupting investlah lost his house and migrated to i3 for refuge

Be very careful of this iinvestbodoh caused investlah to close shop

See

https://www.investlah.com/

14 hours ago

>>>


Even in investlah, calvintaneng was not honest. Why did he migrate from investlah? 😀

Another counter promoted by calvintaneng in the past. Undervalued. Asset play. Change in management.
Those who followed then, would have lost at least 50% or more.

The Malaysian voters are more informed. They are exercising their votes smartly. Any government of the day is going to find governing not easy. Many push and pull issues to be worked through for a united and happy Malaysia. May require a few more elections to iron out many issues.

😀

Calvin lies often. Be wary.

I don't think this is a zero sum gain.
The competitors in this segment are Nestle, F&N and DLady. FFB is a newcomer, yet to be proven but cannot be dismissed lightly too.

Hookwink.

Invest into the future of these top students.

Stop talking rubbish.

Implement the right policies.

It started with GSB, then Netx and then TSH (yet to run its course). OMG

Indonesia has great difficulty financing the development of its new capital due to its increasing debts. It is going to be very challenging.

Looks very over-priced.

In FY 2023, its annual revenue was RM 2.0b and NP 167m.
NPM was 8.13% and ROE 11.95%.
Its P/NAPS was 4.97x. Its PE today is >50x.

At RM 3.20 per share, its market cap is RM 11.612 billion.

Assuming the risk free rate is 4%, you can get a risk free earning yield of 4% (that is a PE of 25x).
At PE of 25x, we would wish to see Chin Hin having earnings of RM 464.5million per year.
IF it can grow at a high rate of return for a reasonable number of years, we may give it a higher PE than 25x.

The RM1.90 dividend for last year cannot be sustained.

Its dividend in 2023 was RM 1.90 (Interim 40 sen, Final 70 sen, Special and others 80 sen)

At the price of RM 24.10 per share, its DY is 4.56% (assuming sustainable recurrent dividends of 110 sen)

Still the best run plantation company in Malaysia.

Retailing is a challenging business. Where is the competitive advantage for long term durable growth?

Its highest dividend paid in 2018 was 20 sen per share.
Its dividend for year 2023 was 5 sen per share.
It is probable that the future dividends will continue to be cut due to falling profits.

Poor consumer sentiment, high inflation and cost of living were quoted as reasons for the drops in revenues and earnings.

Its revenues and earnings continue to shrink from their peaks in 2016.

Balance sheet remains strong, no debts.

Concept of equity bond (of Warren Buffett)

Heim was bought at RM6, decades ago.
Its latest yearly dividend was 128 sen.
Imagine owning a bond with a face-value of RM 6 and paying increasing coupon rate over many years.
Today, its coupon rate is 21.3% (=RM1.28/Rm6.00).

A brief review of my long term portfolio

1. Investing is very safe for the long term. Short term results can be extremely volatile. Be prepared for rough rides anytime.

2. Holding on to winners, selling the losers. This ensures that your portfolio will contain many winners. Of course, another assumption being not to invite "losers" into your portfolio.

3. The long term multi-baggers are the true builders of the wealth in the portfolio. Even then, over the decades, their prices fluctuated too (not a surprise). The ability to continue hold on to these for decades ensure you grow your wealth through compounding in these winners.

4. Sell quickly those stocks that have deteriorated fundamentally (business wise). You may choose to sell some of the stocks you like too if you think they are too over-priced (or you may choose not to use this strategy, it will be fine too).

5. Twitching your portfolio now and again, to improve on the quality of the stocks in it and also to optimise returns is a good practice. Do this occasionally, but rarely. Often you will find that you can reinvest into the same stocks that you know well in the stock portfolio.

6. Sometimes, you made a mistake in buying a particular stock. Just sell and reinvest into another you like.

7. Always buy at bargain prices. An investment is good at a certain price and very bad at a high price. The market is there to serve you, you will always have a chance to buy cheap. Be patient.

8. Have the courage and the cash ready to act when an opportunity presents. Be greedy when everyone is fearful. Fire your elephant gun, do not be timid in this opportune time.

What calvintaneng is pointing out is "don't be the patsy". :-)

Newly listed.
Already difficult to understand its accounts.
Such a big drop in revenue (due to non-redemption of packages)

RM ('000)
Qtr Rev … PBT … NP
31-Mar-24 9,454 … -7,909 … -7,909
… …
31-Dec-23 17,573 … -269 … -1,073
30-Sep-23 15,513 … -3,133 … -2,741
30-Jun-23 17,892 … 5,271 … 4,017
31-Mar-23 16,811 … 3,185 … 2,357

INSAS

Still a very gruesome company.
It will be difficult to value this company.
Many who invested into this company opine it is severely undervalued.
Yes, based on its discount to the NAV, it is severely undervalued.
Yet, an undervalued company can remain undervalued for a very long time.
Insas is indeed an example of this.

Over the last decade, its NAPS has grown from RM 1.73 to RM 3.47.
Over the same period, it continues to be priced at >70% discount to its NAPS.

Given its latest ROE of 3.61%, it is not surprising that it trades at a discount to its NAPS.
Over the decade, its share price fluctuated between RM 0.64 to RM 1.06.
In 2017, its share price touched RM 1.07 and today, its closing price was RM 1.08.

Yes, it is very undervalued. For those who have owned this stock the last 10 years, they are trapped waiting for this stock to be repriced.

Holding such stocks are fine, but if the fair value is not realised by the 2nd year or so, there is opportunity cost incurred. Imagine if you have held Scientex instead of Insas the last decade.

Its share price in 2014 was RM 1.21 per share and its dividend in 2014 was 2.99 sen per share.
It paid increasing dividends over the last 10 years.
Today, its dividend for 2023 was 10 sen per share.
This gives a dividend yield of 10 sen / RM 1.21 = 8.26% based on historical cost.

This is another multi-bagger for those who have this stock in their portfolio for the last decade or more. The last 2 decades saw rapid growth of this company's twin businesses. It has grown big, and its growth has slowed relatively, but the management has been excellent. Its property business (building affordable homes) should continue to deliver good profits going forward.

Over the last 10 years:

It grew its revenue at CAGR of 4.86%
It grew its net profit at CAGR 4.27%
Its dividend distributed grew at CAGR of 6.53%.

Its DPO ratio grew from 46% (2014) to 55% (2023).
DPS grew from 10.74 sen (2014) to 19 sen (2023).
Of note: in 2020, it distributed 13 sen in dividends (cf 14.60 sen in 2019)
Its Net Profit Margins remain steady between 25% to 27%.
Its ROEs from 2014 to 2018 were in the mid teens. From 2019 to now, they were at the low teens.

Its PE hovered between 12 to 16 over many years. Today, its PE is in the lower part of this range.
A good way to value a bank is to look at its P/NAPS: PBB was a very expensive bank in the past as its P/NAPS was consistently above 2. Today, its P/NAPS is 1.52x. With a ROE of 12.16% today, this high quality company is trading at a: _____________.


Price = EPS x PE

Its EPS is consistent and growing.
Its PE has shrunk.

Latest annual revenue still remains below the prepandemic level. It is about the same revenue as in 2017.
However, its profit before tax has turned positive this year.
At RM 3.46 per share today, this is double from its lowest price of 2022.

Topglove

This stock was the darling of many newcomers in 2020. Sadly, all who bought in 2020 and did not sell would have lost a lot of their capital.

Those who bought before 2020 and still holding their stocks today will see their share price shrunk by 40% or so. However, Topglove distributed 75 sen dividends (2020 11.67 sen and 2021 63.50 sen) and given its price of RM 1.10 today, they probably are sitting on a small gain today.

Luckily, I sold Topglove in 2020 on its way up, at the time of exuberance, though I still hold shares in this company today.

A turnaround stock.

Revenues and earnings continue to grow at low pace (4% annually).
Dividends paid over the last 10 years grew from 11sen (2014) to 19 sen (2023),. growing at CAGR of 6%+.

At price of RM 4.04:
Its PE has shrunk from mean of 14 to 11.8 today.
Its present DY is 4.7%.

After World War II, US became the dominant country in the world. The world was divided and the cold war ensued for many years. The Soviet Union broke up and many of its newly independent countries are now with or leaning to the G7 and European countries.

The US dollar reigned supreme. It soon become the world reserve currency and most trades between countries are settled in US dollars. The SWIFT system provides the mean to trade using the US dollars for many decades.

When the US santioned Russia by kicking it out of the SWIFT system and also freezing its US denominated assets (mostly in US Treasury bonds), it set off an alarm bell to those holding the US dollars and their vulnerabilities, especially in those where US try to coerced or pressured.

The need to look for an alternative system was urgent for these countries not in the good books of the US. They looked to learn from the Iranian sanctions by the US and also the sanctions of Russia by the US, and given our human ingenuity, soon comes out with a system to trade among themselves, by passing the use of the US currency. Moreover, while the G7 controlled a huge part of the world GDP at its inception, its influence today is much less (30%). BRICS+ controls more than 30% of the world GDP today.

In a few months or perhaps a year or two, we should see the rise of a new world currency system (backed by gold) in place, for those countries wishing to participate in this. In the next few years, the US currency will remain all powerful still but the weaponisation of the US currency will be less effective. Over time, will we be seeing the rise of the BRIC+ currency and the slow gentle decline of the US currency as the world reserve currencies.

Given the huge debts of the US, will the slow decline in the use of the US currency as a world reserve currency impact its economic strength in the near future?

Poh Kong

Highest qtrly revenue and highest qtrly net profit reported.
Revenues increased by 23% and net profit increased by 69% QoQ
Higher revenues and increase in gold prices had improved its profit margin.

calvintaneng, the KLCI has risen 10% YTD. However, you promoted TSH from 1.78 to 1.05. Maybe you should reconsider your actions?

>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse



Better sell Dlady (holland grandma)

GO BUY NOTION

NOTION VTEC: 4 ENGINES OF GROWTH FIRING UP IN UNISON: HDD (Hard Disk Drive), DIGITAL CAMERA, EMS, PPE N95 FACE MASKS, Calvin Tan

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2024-05-20-story-h-161551412-NOTION_VTEC_4_ENGINES_OF_GROWTH_FIRING_UP_IN_UNISON_HDD_Hard_Disk_Drive
>>>


Don't expect a good deal from a dishonest person. :-)
😀🤔

>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > 12 hours ago | Report Abuse

As long as DC (Data Center) continue to proliferate Notion, Jcy and Dufu should continue its bull run
Watch Western Digital, Seagate and Nvidia perform to see the Hdd bull trend
>>>


High risk, low reward

My protection:

For every 500 companies screened
Saying NO to 200 companies
Saying YES to 1 company

😀

Projected EPS for next year: 140 sen - 160 sen
At today's price of RM 38 per share, its projected PER is 27 to 23.7

Hoperfully, DLady will soon normalise its gross profit margins soon and with its increasing revenues, this will translate into even higher earnings and EPS.

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Stockraider

Hasn't posted for a month. Hope all is well with him.

🤔

Learn from history.

The mainland Chinese are now so much better than their parents and grandparents. We applaud and rejoice their successes. Lifting such a big population out of poverty is a great achievement.

Tiananmen incident is repeatedly used by the detractors to run down mainland China. The majority of the mainland Chinese rightly support their government of the day.

The 4Cs

Chun, chun, chun, calvin