Hahaha.

I guess I really should get to the point faster.

But I felt that was key to understanding the "Why" and "how".

Oh well. Let's see.

You know you're in good company, when quack quack quack criticizes you.

If qqq3 ever says that my article is good, i would panic, and ask people if i suddenly turn stupid or what.

Hahaha

Every time i read someone here, flaunt their RM13m or RM30m or whatever fortune.

I can't help but think, from 1999 - 2013, you can buy property at 9-10% yield, with 10% down, and no loan limits, ie, as long as its rented out, the bank will let you take our another loan. Cover monthly installment and get extra summore! Today yields are only 3-4% Maybe 5%. Good luck covering.

Its not uncommon for people with 200k yearly income to have loans of RM5mil on property, and insane positive cashflow from rental.

And those days when, shares are so undervalued, that you can buy Padini for less than RM1.5 pre split at 6 times earnings and 7% yield.

Or Latitude at bottom cyclical earnings of 5 times, just after they bought the vietnam plant.

Or when you can buy INARI at less than 10PE and 6% yield, while its profit and revenue were doubling each year. Same goes for Vitrox.

With golden years lasting almost or more than 15 years, and with you at the peak of your earning power then, to only build a networth of RM13m to Rm30m....

Its worth being happy about, in terms of the joy and security it brought your family.

But i wouldn't be too keen to show it as proof of ones "godly" skill.

Like munger when asked why buffet is richer, i'll answer the same, "Why is Einstein poorer than me?".

If your arguments or perspective have no merit, your track record only proves your luck. Though you are likely to have had some skill and the right temperament.

Spend your time praying and thanking god every day (if you're religious), and do charity work.





Value88, i do concede i have been extremely sarcastic in the past. However, i also dont think its possible to have lived a good and truthful life without making some enemies.

The only people where everybody like, is people are not genuine and are manipulative. The truth often stings.

However, you are right that i still have some way to go, in being truthful, without trying to hurt others intentionally, or being sarcastic.

Ill do my best.

Gee phillip,

My analysis one TIMECOM and RCECAP, my biggest holdings were absolutely spot on, and luckily for me, the price did not move, allowing me to buy more.

In your case, your analysis on the wonderful growth of QL yielded a earnings growth of 1.8% CAGR over 3 years, while the share price went up 70%.

Gee, i wonder who is right in this case.

“The stock investor is neither right or wrong because others agreed or disagreed with him; he is right because his facts and analysis are right.”

Let me rephrase,

The stock investor is neither right or wrong because other market participants agreed or disagreed with him; he is right because his facts and analysis are right.

Regardless, i dont think your current responses reflect well on you. Would your children be proud of you if they say your comments here on i3, especially those in response to me or Ricky? Or basically anyone with half a brain who disagreed with you on QL.

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Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Mar 10, 2019 05:08 PM | Report Abuse

I'm sorry KC. Someone who is not rich (period), whose analysis and results have not yielded results ( despite him trying to get everyone to agree with him) you need to be very clear. If you still continue to listen to him, then losses will be in your head.

If someone who goes around spouting value investing and charges 5000 for looking at your stock and charges you management fee for stock picking but makes you buy assets that perform worse than epf, I can that outright fraud.

“The stock investor is neither right or wrong because others agreed or disagreed with him; he is right because his facts and analysis are right.”

I am on Ben Graham side on this.

Hahahaha, very accurate summary!

Its also important to know the why and how, for people like me at least :)

Feel free to write summaries for me next time!


=======
enigmatic For those who feel TLDR:
When Koon & Bee buys or recommends a stock, jump in ASAP and ride the wave until reach a certain high level. Always sell before they start announcing that they sold. Low risk when you buy at "The Beginning". High risk when buy at "The Final Stage"

Choivo won't buy this kind of stock bcause Koon & Bee are traders while he is value investor.


TA-DAA!! I've simplified it for you!
10/03/2019 13:04

Haha connie,

Completely out of the way.

Let me know when youre in kl, ill take you out for lunch. In exchange for you teaching me a thing or two.

Even if its how to make seaweed keropok!

I was looking at this.

Very interesting Co and great management. Only thing is its not that cheap.

Still....

Phillip,

I did pretty well this year, made back 2018 and more. I would rather have done "badly" though, as this means I'll be able to buy more at a cheap price.

"Markets can stay illogical than you know."

Aiyo, you want teach me about margin of safety also anot.

Things will take longer than you think it would, and when it happens, it will be happen faster than you ever thought it could.

And to think you only learnt this in your forties to fifties. And to do so well despite that.

Imagine how much better off I would be at your age!

Honestly, you need to keep your emotion in check. Its unbecoming for a 60 plus year old multimillionaire being jealous of some young fella.

Or, protect ricebowl!

Haha my influence not that power lah.

Just dont trade drunk!

John Lu,

You very weird leh, first you think its good, now you think its bad, ahahaha.

I hope your mind is a little bit better in you're trading!

===========

John Lu has left a new comment on your post "(CHOIVO CAPITAL) The Art of Trading (DAYANG) Profitably Around Mr Koon Yew Yin and Mr Ooi Teik Bee.":

Loh soh.. Haha..but is a good article

Posted by John Lu at Mar 10, 2019 06:13 AM

Connie,

Play the musical chair game all you want, just dont actually swallow the bullshit.

Later you really need to sell seaweed keropok to live than you know!

By then you join the many who suddenly go silent.

Oddly, i think would miss you and your foolishness. You're quite the specimen after all.

John Lu,

If i bought Dayang as it was rising as a speculative venture. Or was the kind to do that.

My investors would have pulled back the money, or never have given it to me in the first place.

If any of my current investors, feel differently, tell me, i'll price you out now.

Hmm and there goes your rationality and logic flying out the window again. Like when me or Ricky starts asking you questions on QL.

You got buy abit to punt is it?

I though you super long term guy only?

=====
(S = Qr) Philip Meaningless article. So full of speculative remarks that you waste so much time reading..... And learn nothing of import.

Let me sum it up for you. You think kyy and OTB are market movers. They buy early, promote and watch as the share price increase pulls the traders in. Then they get out and leave Jon lohsoh with the bag. Jon lohsoh doesn't think the companies they invested in are really all that good.

But what if it is? Will Jon lohsoh revise his article and apologize if the companies they invested in perform well?
10/03/2019 06:52

This article is honestly quite worthless.

You do understand your Co's. But I sometimes feel you don't really feel the quantitative effects, esp for example the effect of the additional stores on ql, and that imho, its not enough, considering the valaution.

In any event good luck.

Yes, i believe i know better. Would love to be proven wrong though.


====
Posted by chankp7010 > Feb 26, 2019 11:17 AM | Report Abuse

Look like someone knows even better than Board of Directors/Management of DKSH. The acquisition of Auric is profit enhancing for years to come. At the same time, helping DKSH to go further in expansion of business. Directors/Management believe they can generate better profit/income and cash flow than to service bank loans resulting from RM480 millions payout

The only division selling is the motorcycles, albeit extremely well.

Ok PCHEM is interesting.

Your reasoning seems to make sense. However, would be great if you write them out in full, with the numbers etc.

Thanks in advance.

Dompeilee,

Read again the structure.

On me charging for my time, when it comes to going through ones portfolio etc. Well my time is not free.

And I'm quite sure of providing more than adequate value. People are free to ask for their money back, if they find it not worth the money, no questions asked.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/172101.jsp

Wrote something on it a few months back.

====
3iii Top Gainers
Stock Last Change
TIMECOM 8.570 +0.370
AEONCR 17.020 +0.320
PENERGY 1.100 +0.195
DAYANG 1.360 +0.180


The top 4 gainers today @ 4.30 pm.

3 of these stocks are actively promoted in i3.

Timecom was highlighted by Choivo on Saturday's symposium.

Conclusion: i3 is a powerful forum in Bursa.
04/03/2019 16:23

Heavenly PUNTER the blogger day very effective
04/03/2019 16:24

I don't think most people here have any business buying insurance companies.

Calvin, this feels like it is veering very dangerously into pure speculation.

Good luck, please do you best to ensure people following you are using play money and not real money.

Haha I'm quite thankful that anyone is even reading this 8,800 word monster. There are so many words, that out of the 51 articles I've written on this site, only 2 of them have more views than the number of words on this article.

Haha cute!

I dont know why i look odd in pictures. Must be gain weight d.

or just face problem! Hahaha

Hope it brings you luck!

Do note, i dont really care about next q, im looking at the next 5 years etc.

I own a little.

Phillip, let me ask you. How does one go about buying a mattress, pillow, bolster, bedsheets etc in Malaysia, or even globally.

If you understand this, you will like it more. Im thinking of expanding it from the current 1% to 3%.

Haha i find that my articles are much better when i present them live.

I have to admit, written out, its honestly hard to finish (unless you're an avid read), since i like to elaborate on my points.

====
Icon8888 so longwinded ... I need to keep slapping myself to stay awake

ok lah give you a like also
03/03/2019 13:51

Haha lol!

Phillip,

I'm not going to pay 50 USD to put a bet, and then pay another 10k USD into escrow.

I'm not in my sixties. I do well for my age, but not enough to compete financially now with an old man who made his money in his fifties.

You know what, you have 4 Malaysian Co's there.

Lets Make it KLSE only.

Start on 4/3/2019. Im busy saturday.

Phillip,

Don't insult me by calling me an investment banker! hahaha. I also right about PBBANK wor, must be 20% as good as you now!

Results? Well look back towards the 150 odd years of history of the markets, and well, its just logic.

For a guy who spouts his buffet, munger, lynch and graham when talking about investing.

You sure sound like a Ackman when talking about QL! Espeacially when ackman talks about Valeant! And he attend Berkshire AGMs all the time too!

Interactive brokers.

Lets keep the bet KLSE only, easier to track via this forum.

PETCHEM is ok. I just have better opportunities.

Why not TSMC in taiwan instead, way way way better business, and cheaper too!


===
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Mar 1, 2019 10:45 PM | Report Abuse

Hmmm but ah you know they say maybe they trust the milo so much that's why PE 50+ .... Wah you two make me very confused now. Now I dunno how to follow already... PChem PE 10++ no overvalue gua that one I think...

No selling at any point, dividends may be reinvested to other stocks.

I'll keep track of yours.

You know what, lets make a small bet for fun.

You come up with a 10 year list, and ill come up with mine, lets keep it close to our current portfolios.

Loser at the end of 10 years donates 20k to the charity of the other persons choice, or just pay cash.

===
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Mar 1, 2019 10:42 PM | Report Abuse

Sure. Whatever you say.

I think we have established you know nothing about QL business except past figures and not future potential.

As to your suddenly 10% exposure to STNE ( I assume you bought that, because if you bought 7143 Bursa stone you are fucked). I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

Good luck.

This is how you die long term. Diversification is a protection against ignorance. I'll keep track of this list and see how well you do in 2 years.
30% in rce, 20% in petron, 15% timecom, 8% airasia, 10% in stone, another 17% in the remaining 18 co's or so.

Nope. I dont think nestle is a good buy at this price, not even close.

Read up on general mills, heinz, modelez, unilevel and kelogg etc in overseas market.

Some are better than nestle, and selling at half the valuation.

Let me tell you something, nestle listed in switzerland, is at 27 time earnings, here is at 50.

For a highly saturated market.

Phillip, sounds smart, until he starts defending QL!

Haha, if that is not emotion talking, i have no idea what it is.

30% in rce, 20% in petron, 15% timecom, 8% airasia, 10% in stone, another 17% in the remaining 18 co's or so.

That's 83% in top 5.

You really are old, i keep telling you the same thing, but you seem to have reading comprehension problems.

Must be that wounded ego getting in your eye.

Does not feel good when you don't have a good answer to the critiques of a young boy eh ;)

Congrats, your QL with this q, went from growing CAGR 1.88% in 4 years to 2.2%!

My god, half of GDP, wonderful performance for a company i'm paying 50 times earnings. Lets break out the champagne, and have the wife wear the special underwear tonight!

===


Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Mar 1, 2019 10:24 PM | Report Abuse

FYI choivo,

I put 200k shares of STNE (NYSE) done at usd19. Guess where the price is now? 22% of my focused portfolio, including margin.

That is 2000 lots. At usd19. I put Q to my R.

You bought a "little". Sad to be right when you have no exposure long term.

Maybe you should try focused investing one day, instead of holding 30-50 stocks and knowing next to nothing about them.

The same people said hk property was expensive in 2016, saw market prices go from expensive, to stupid expensive to OMG SO FUCKING STUPID EXPENSIVE.

Even Goldman sachs in HK literally moved to a cheaper area.

Same people said about this in Japan in 1990's. There, stock PE regularly above 100, and even 300. Remisiers were so confident, they even guarantee the price.

The land near the japan palace was at 0.5% yield and below.

We saw what happened next. 2 decades lost. 2 decades of stagflation.

I dont care where the price go, i just find out what its worth to me, and buy it when its at a big discount and as good an opportunity as my best pick.

Thats it. Not my job to rely on stupid people to do stupider things.


====
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Mar 1, 2019 10:19 PM | Report Abuse

Choivoboy, give you one more example, you said Ahealth was expensive at 8.50, look where it is now?

Did your crystal ball that told you Jan will be great also tell you that 2015 to March 2018 growth will only be less than 1.8% CAGR?

And you held it despite that?

I did know, but i kept it, because its worth alot more to me. Did you know sees candy losses money 3 quarters a year? Imagine the stock price if it was listed!

I don't trade, or do short term moves period. At best i lean on it. Which was why i kept some money in the tank for a top up.

Since your wonderful crystal ball tells you whenever Ql will post good or bad result every quarter, did you sell all 2 million shares in say may 2016 and buy back etc etc ?

God, i would love to be your remisier. When you sell, you do 13 mil in one trade! Just to punt quarter!

I bought Petronm at 7.8. At 13 it was arnd fair value for me, so i sold half. Kept the rest, because i liked the biz. Averaged down from 7.5 to 6.

Why is it great? find out yourself. I don't share good ideas, they are rare.

HY i sold all and bought again at 9, and averaged down a little at 4.6 or so. Its just a small position, just because i think the new management is pretty decent and valuation is depressed. Not banking so much on a wonderful industry.

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Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Mar 1, 2019 09:47 PM | Report Abuse

FYI I knew exactly that QL would have all time revenue and all time earnings this year, in the previous quarterly report QL management had already hinted that.

Did you know exactly if petronm would lose money this quarter? No you didn't. Otherwise you would have immediately sold all your shares when it was at 7.50. and bought back when it drops to rm6.20. later this month.

But no one has a crystal ball, except Calvin tan. Did you know that petronm would have crashed from 13.54 in 2017? did you know your hengyuan would crash as well in 2017? Luckily you didn't for then, only lost some money but high chase high.

No one knows what the share price will go in the short term.

But in the long term everyone knows what happens to companies that continue to increase it's revenues and earnings over a long period of time.

UP.

This is what I told you would happen in January,I already expected QL to do well. Any nasty surprises? None?

Why? This is a clockwork business. You know exactly what they are doing where they are going.

The same people said this for GE.

At the end of the day, paying for an all to high price can wipe out a decade of business improvement.

Ask old amazon shareholders who bought at 89 in 2000, and see it drop to 7.50. Took a decade for them to recover. We all know what happened now. I doubt they are more than even 1% of the shareholders then who held till now.

Except, the same fools who bought amazon then, probably also bought CISCO, WEBVAN etc, and got their ass kicked to kingdom come.

I'm not a person who wishes for an old retiree to lose his retirement fund, so i wish you luck. But you will need a ton of it.

=====
Start with the business first, it's revenue growth and it's earnings growth. Dividends and share buybacks will come, or bigger business diversification opportunities will arrive.

It usually does for wonderful companies.

Don't sweat the share price.

Again, i dont give half a damn for the refinery.

Thats not where i see the value.


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Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Mar 1, 2019 09:38 PM | Report Abuse

No Jon,

How you die is overestimating the value of PETRONM by chasing the price up from 6.7 to 7.5 by thinking that PETRONM will do well over time. It cannot do well, it will never do well over time. The thin profit margins from the crack spread of crude oil margins coupled with statutory plant shutdown periods are an uncontrollable part of long term hit on earnings.

This is how you die.

If its a wonderful business, its worth stretching for 10-20% more than what you'd normally be willing.

Not 300-400% more.
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Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Mar 1, 2019 09:47 AM | Report Abuse

sorry to interrupt uncles, but i think some good businesses, you just can't put a number on it.

Yeap, its a laggard and thus trash. Everyone sell it down to 0.1. I'll privatize it then. Make it permanent laggard!

Isnt the balance paid for with the construction paper profit>
==

Posted by DK66 > Mar 1, 2019 12:58 AM | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee, yes, you are correct.

ESOS.

I'm fine with it. Id love to be given a chance to buy more at a low price.

Woot. I like how its still below my cost, despite performing as well over the last 2 years as i expected.. Seems like its time to start topping up.

Pay me 5k i tell you.

Preferably not, because i dont like selling and thinking of new things to buy. but im neutral.

If you take out the other income growth, its about 5% growth, in rev and profit, which is just about right i think.