Thats untrue 3iii.

If you buy it while he is front running it, and before the article, sure profitable.

After, well you need to understand its a gamble, so sensing when the story turns and getting out before everyone else is key.

This is a goreng article after all. The best kind, which are weaved selectively with threads of the truth.

No idea. Would be better if they stuck to OEM.

The price action for this stock is very interesting.

Haha, if selling for a profit is being "RCE'ed", im more than happy to be RCE'ed here.

Well, there's little to no political connections.

Political businesses add a whole new level of complexity.

RCE could very well end up doing very well for itself, i just don't see have enough confidence given what i know.

http://malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=1137558

Yes. It was announced.

Great piece.

Annual audited Accounts.

its filed with SSM yearly. RM35 per copy.

not the stock.

God, if you think its cheap, just shut up and buy. Think its expensive, dont buy.

If you're a trader and you dont think price will move, don't buy, if you think price will move, go buy.

Why complain left and right, too free is it.

Mr Ooi,

Unlike qqq3, you have better use for your time.

He has no achievement in life, and so, if he can get you to reply him, for him it is a success.

Your time, if well spent, can get you another 100%. His time, at best, can get you to reply.

Thanks phillip,

I'm still studying intel. So i have not casted my full line

One thing to note is this. Its not so much about the node (which is very important) but also about the architecture.

Why is Nvidia Turing, which is on 12nm, still vastly outperforms AMD's which are on 7nm, in terms of power and efficiency?

That is the thing i'm banking on.

In every major area intel is in, they are the market leaders, whether servers and CPU.

And i severely doubt AMD can ever beat intel in CPU or nvidia in GPU. They simply dont have enough money, and they dont make enough money to reinvest into R&D the same way intel and nvidia does.

Now, Intel is planning to go into graphic processing, a market where the leader Nvidia makes 30% roe, and unbelievable amount, because they simply had no decent competitor.

Intel knows what its takes to do architecture, they make the vast majority of CPU's and would be more than capable of making graphics cards that are more compatible with their CPU's. And with the margins available, they would be more than able to sell cpu and gpu jointly.

Is it probable that they can achieve this? I think more likely than not. I still have some studying to do though.

However, at 10PE, i think i'm willing to take a position on it, and build it further as my confidence level increase, or maintain it if it doesnt.

Send me an email at choivocapital@gmail.com

Lets meet up sometime.

I love the flow of your mind.

However, thus far, i feel the crux of the matter (for me at least) have not been answered.

What is the economic edge of the company compared to their competitors?
How sustainable are the current earnings?
How probable and sustainable are the future growth?
What are the points of ruin in this investment (or is it a trade?)?

I look forward to your future articles.

Hahahahah possible. No idea lah. This was a fundamental buy.

It may be worth thinking as a trading buy, if i were ever to pick up trading tendencies.

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joekit Maybe after you threw all your shares in rcecap then the share price will start moving up...hahahahaha....that happens all the time....hahahaha.....
15/06/2019 10:24 PM

Mr Ooi,

We do things very differently in the market, however, respectfully, i think everyone is aware of your skill and quality.

It would do you no good to interact with someone like him in the market.

He says it cracked its skull 5 months ago, i say it got influenza last saturday, and may get worse as the hospitals nearby are shit.

I was right when i bought it, when i held it, and when i sold it.

Yeah guarantors need to be civil servants usually. And if the original lender don't pay, direct deduct from the guarantor salary.

How do you mean by critical, and why would the PH govt bailout?

Some formatting would be nice to be honest.

The leverage of their JV which makes the UK property is eye popping to be honest.

22 times. To be fair, we dont know which is bank loan, which is trade payable. About 33% is advances.

Giving them best case scenario, 10% net margin, they are making 1.6bil over not sure how many years.

Book at 2.5bil. I'll just whack it down to 1.6bil market cap, because most of it is advances to overseas subsi, and im not sure about property ind dynamics.

Won't die investment wise i suppose.

But as a semi long term trade, its compelling. Over the next 2-3 years there should be a bump in property, and given ewint has one of the highest eyeballs on it in the investment and property market, it should bode well for the warrants.

I dont doubt Tan Sri Liew. Incredible man.

But im wondering the price, is it worth it with other opportunities around.

Very hard to answer. Need to study more to see how much is all the potential cash to be made from their overseas jv.

No.

Boss owns 2% directly, the rest is in an employee fund, where the boss holds the bulk of it.


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Posted by Icon8888 > Jun 15, 2019 3:31 PM | Report Abuse

Huawei not owned by one man

Its boss owns 2%, the rest owned by employees

petron fuel international sdn bhd

Its another company held by petron corp in phillipines based in msia, it holds about 40% of the petron stations in msia.

What warrant is this?
===
Icon8888 as a matter of fact, recently I bought more at 10.5
13/06/2019 10:41 AM

Unimech WA?


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Posted by Icon8888 > Jun 13, 2019 10:42 AM | Report Abuse

so many years in the market, I have never lost money in buying warrants near 10 sen and with another two to three years lifespans

wow, interesting.

Its in line with PETDAG (very close actually), albeit lower in 2018 and 2019 due to refinery not contributing as much.

They dont do segment analysis, but if they did, i wont be surprised if its higher than petdag.

Maybe i should buy PFI accounts to use as a benchmark.

I dont see any common sense in this article.

Did you not notice their capex requirements to meet new regulation standards?

Or the fact that there will be some cashflow constraints arising from the petrol subsidies repayment?

Or the capex done to expand the business, which makes a higher return on equity than you can get?

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wotvr Yeap they only pay less than a quarters earnings when they could have easily paid out much more
09/06/2019 3:59 PM

Well, opensys have captured 80% of the market now for CRM and in cheques, they hold 85% of the market.

I think they can get the bulk of the market, esp since no bank is a fan of maintaining two systems. Think of it, when a company buy IT equipment, they just all whack dell, or apple etc

Paynet has been around since 2014.

It would be interesting if banks were to allow instant transfer at zero cost instead of debit cards.

But why do so? Debit card transactions is about RM21 billion this year or about 150 million transactions for malaysia. Rates of debit card is lower of 0.21% or RM0.70 +0.01%.

For simplicity, lets just use the 0.21%. That is about RM44.1 million raked in from fees, basically free money.

For the record, that amount is more than triple the total amount of profit from the maintaining ALL ATM's (CRM etc) in malaysia (based on my working above). Its about double the revenue from maintenance services for ATM.

Lets not even talk about credit card.

Nobody is going to shoot their own RM44.1mil free money ricebowl.

In terms of value, electronic have far far exceed cash.

I have never carried a 1000 or 10000 sgd note out before, usually i ask them bring it to my house.

However, i think almost all of us here, visit the ATM once or twice a month at minimum. And assuming you do go out to eat, you will be spending cash.

You buy durian from uncle on the street? Cash.

Why don't i think e-wallets will make it in malaysia? Its simple. The economics dont make sense. You can't make money from e-wallets.

Why do shops accept e-wallets now? Because e-wallets are paying out subsidies to attract them, giving discounts on the vendor's goods to their customers, paid out of their own pocket.

Of course i'll help you as a vendor.

But if the economics become, i will charge the vendor 0.1%-2% when they receive payment, and due to BNM ruling as well as the fact customers wont want to swallow this, the vendor cannot pass on this cost, will i accept card or accept cash?

Unless you run incredible cash volumes, it would not make sense to rent the terminal and pay the 0.1-2% per transaction.

At the end of the day, the sheer fact is that this service is not free (and cannot be free due to economic reasons), unlike alipay in china, it will be unlikely become the mainstay, at least in terms of transaction volume.

Fair points phillip.

I dont think they lease machines, more like receive payment for each transaction, when it comes to the kiosk and cheques. Look at the revenue note, they dont state any lease/rental income.

I'm fine with the write offs. You see the big ones in PPE note, however, i noticed that they are mostly fully depreciated to begin with. The adjustment amounts to only about 24% of current year depreciation, so an error rate of about 2-3% per annum on a straight line basis, relatively normal.

I do however, find it odd that they disclosed the write off in inventory. Probably need to find out.

Having said that, if we perform a valuation where every division except for CRM contributes zero, ie, we only take into account CRM SSS net profit, and included the discounted net profit from CRM sale, we are still looking at intrinsic value per share of around 40 to 50 plus cents.

Pretty good, but not utterly amazing, which is why its a relatively small 6.5% position.

You may want to take a look at kraft heinz and intel.

Interesting, thanks. I didn't know that about china.

From an investment perspective, the keep spit out money thing is probably a plus, since it really helps with keeping out the fake notes.

I'm assuming Diebold is also just as effective at that, but more effective at identifying old notes vs fake notes? I never thought to test like that as i don't think it affects the economics of the business. Still its interesting to know.

Short Sell loh.

I must be the first person to write a "Long Article" while telling you potential downside 20%.

Manage to get out of dayang?

Haha welcome back CharlesT, long time no see.

If people want these kind of extremely high PE growth stock, look at these.

Align Technology - The maker of invisalign
Shockwave Medical Inc - Big potential
Intuitive Surgical - Maker of the Da Vinci Machine
Beyond Meat - Vegetarian meat that taste like real meat with similar health content
Visa
Master
Boeing
Airbus

No idea.

Do note its not a target price, its the range of values i consider the company to be worth today.


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Posted by teoct > Jun 9, 2019 11:12 AM | Report Abuse

Sorry, i meant timeline for your prediction on the share price.

Another potential risk is

https://www.socash.io/

But i dont really see how it will become the norm.

teoct,

i expect 5 years for or so for complete conversion for all non crm to crm's.

Mr Ooi,

Respectfully, if your top miss universe picks at the start of 2018 was selected and given equal weight in 1 Jan 2018, would the drop be only 42%? I would think it would be quite a bit higher.

For 2019, why not use the competition ROI? Seems a bit odd that some years use competition, some years use self reported figures. I'm sure you're giving the right figure, but some may get confused.

Could you state where the numbers are obtained at the side?

Having said that, despite those adjustments, its still a great record.

=====


Below are my performance.

2013 - 104% ROI
2014 - 61% ROI
2015 - 129% ROI
2016 - 22% ROI
2017 - 87% ROI
2018 - (42%) ROI
2019 - 100% ROI - From 1/1/2019 to 6/5/2019.

I really do love the family mart ice cream. There is one that opened near bukit jelutong. I sat outside the place looking for quite sometime, as well as sniffing around inside.

The food, i'm guessing is made in the central kitchen.

The taste is comparable to supermarket grocery food, price is 10-20% higher compared to the Japanese food in those supermarket.

I'm not that big of a fan of the food, much less willing to pay that price, but i think that is mostly me. Most people are willing to pay.

All in all, looks like quite a decent business.

Taking into account the 2018 figures, the question now is, what is the right price to pay?

Extrapolating the current 7.11m profit(lets assume 8m per year with economy of scale) 80 stores to 400 stores. We would look at 40m per year in profit 10 years from now.

Lets say it would be worth 20 times earnings then in 2029 as there would still be some growth prospect. That would be around 800m business. Discounted by risk free rate of 4.5%, the maximum price one should pay today is RM504 milion.

Ql price today is RM 11 billion. By buying QL now, you are paying 10.5bil is from surimi etc which makes 210m per year (2% earning yield) with 5% growth rate over the last 5 years

And 500m for Family Mart (assuming everything goes as planned).

of course, you might then think, 20PE is too cheap. This is family mart, should be minimum PE 50, or worth RM2bil in 2029. or RM1.2bil discounted.

In which case, you are paying RM9.8bil for a surimi business making 210m per year (2.1% earning yield), growing at 5% over the last 5 years. And 1.2bil for a family mart, where every goes right and it is valued at 50 times earnings.

Well, i'm not smart enough to buy, love the ice cream though.

Unless you are a OTB subscriber you cannot blame him.

OTB is a trader, he tells you when to buy and sell, If you followed him, should be ok this year.

But if you're not a subscriber and just follow rumors of if he say buy or sell, you will die.

Don't turn a trading buy into an investment one.

Having said that, i bought a small amount of hibiscus for investment.

The minority shareholders who did not want the SCR is 6% of the company. Good luck.

====
NavinShah Then let us the minority shareholder gather this and finally RIP the MAA GROUP BHD.
30/05/2019 8:27 AM

My gut tells me, some of these people, talk the big talk, but sold their shares post 23 May, since as long as you held shares before 23 may you can vote, if im not mistaken.

These minorities are some of the biggest fools i've ever seen. Just an illogical and emotional decision.

If you don't intend to make a hostile takeover offer, or negotiate beforehand for a higher price, you might as well just shut up and take the SCR.

Talk so loud online, or threaten throw chair at EGM for what?

In the end, the management can now sit back and just continue paying themselves multi-million dollar salaries again.

Remind me of the Stone Master Corporation Berhad shareholders.

Yeah, sold at 2 days ago for 0.995 for a small loss. It was a small position anyway.

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TheContrarian Choivo, foolish of you to have bought back.
29/05/2019 4:49 PM

Hmm. Well i like PCHEM.

I would consider taking out 25 to 30% to buy Singaporean reits. And maybe another 10% for China index.

I think i might be interested.

Thanks, i have never seen this site before.

Fairly ok with the result, would prefer if more machines are sold of course, but i know for a fact that all atm and cdm's will be replaced with crm in 5 years, and opensys will be more than able to maintain their market share. I can ride the bumps.

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equitydiary https://www.rbrlondon.com/press/
23/05/2019 10:39 PM

Sell lah. I don't mind the opportunity to buy cheaper.

Hmm might be time to top up.