That would be the first time I heard someone unable to dispose stakes.

thanks for the article 860000

this is exactly im trying to understand, this isnt an empty piece of land, people can estimate how much it is worth all they want, but the main question is for the share price to move, LBS must unlock it. To unlock the value, they either get someone to reevaluate and make paper gain, or sell it.

And common sense person will think, who wants to buy a circuit? unless it is making so so much cash, or unless the land is so valuable someone is willing to demolish the circuit to build some high end properties or casino etc, but how about the approval to demolish it?

Lesson 1: Don't do short-term trade. Lesson 2: Do your own homework

If you have done your homework thoroughly and invest, even if KYY bad mouth the company all over newspapers, that also won't send you to holland. It might drop in short term but long term, if business fundamentals are great, you fear no one, only your own emotions.

Lesson 1: Don't do short-term trade. Lesson 2: Do your own homework

If you have done your homework thoroughly and invest, even if KYY bad mouth the company all over newspapers, that also won't send you to holland. It might drop in short term but long term, if business fundamentals are great, you fear no one, only your own emotions.

Hi GemDigger, correct me if im wrong. I don't have much research done on LBS Bina except those written by you and published by broker house. My viewpoint is that yes there are certain value for that 60% stakes on ZIC, and they can estimate it based on the 2 lands LBS dispose last year, however my thought is that to create a catalyst, LBS either can reevaluate the land and book a fair value gain on their earnings or just sell it to realize a gain.

Now if they decide to sell it. 1. it isn't an empty land, where LBS can readily build something on it to generate earnings or sell the land to another China developer 2. Since it is a racing circuit, if LBS plans to sell it to unlock the value, a buyer would buy it only if either because the racing circuit is generating a lot of money or they can demolish the race track and build something more valuable on that land, based on my rational.

What I am more interested in are those 2 lands that LBS just sold, based on mode of settlement, cash, shares in Zhuhai holdings and promissory notes all worth RM681m. Discounting back since some promissory notes will not be distributed until 2017, the whole thing should still worth about RM450m. Based on market cap of RM850m, now im just figuring out if the whole LBS is worth the remaining RM400m or a lot more lol. But do let me know if my assumption is way way wrong.

How did you get the assumption that iCar will be the one to swallow up part of the disposal but not some other parties?

NTA is just a guideline when valuing how much a company is worth and what are you paying for. And it is more applicable to asset heavy industries compare to services industries. One also need to take into account the environment of the industry and the business itself, if the industry is extremely competitive, there is a high chance that it can become a value trap, aka business value deteriorate fast enough to evaporate your margin of safety before you can 'unlock' the value.

NTA is just one factor to consider similar to PE, you still have to consider many other variables when you invest in a business.

Hm but mudah.my is a bit like craiglist in US, there are a few filters but generally not as robust or as more 'focused' compare to other pure car sites, remain to be seen if market share can be taken away from them. I do keep track of the numbers of cars available for sale on sites like carlist, mudah, autoworld etc as a rough measure of market share, seems like carlist has the highest number of cars for sale.

Just my opinion, I am not exactly sure why no one is jumping on it, either most people are traders or most never really do any in depth studies.

I think the reason that Rev sell their investment has nothing to do with the business performance of iCar.

From my understanding, example like Carlist.my in Malaysia, their strategy is grabbing market share first, charge listing fees after. It is similar to how Jobstreet can monopolized the job ads market, once the business reaches a certain scale that create network effect, buyers and sellers become so reliant on the website platform that it becomes impossible to switch. That's why carlist is keeping it free for sellers at the moment to gobble up as much market share they can before they start charging a listing or transaction fees.

Which is also why iCar shares are so red hot in Australia. Many people miss out the opportunities to buy Seek.com.au - Job ads leader in Australia; Realestate.com.au - Property leader in Australia; Carsales.com.au - Automobile ads leader in Australia; iProperty - Property leader in Malaysia, SG etc, that's why they know iCar has immense growth potential. Similar to iProperty, both haven't been making much money and still incur losses but the market are putting really high hopes on them.

Hi Crecimiento, yea thanks because i keep thinking why the market is saying REV worth 183mil (at RM1.36) when the disposal is already 210mil gain and that is on top of the business itself? Doesn't make a lot of sense

Hi Crecimiento, thanks. Was a bit surprised and down knowing the closing price because I bought higher but I hope I didn't make any miscalculation.

Hi Crecimiento, just curious what are your plans regarding this? Did you cash out or planning to see it through until after the distribution?

Based on announcement, the disposal gain is estimated to be RM210 mil, which 90% will be distributed to shareholders while 10% for working capital.

(RM210 mil x 90%) / Outstanding Shares = RM1.40 per share - Hence the current price jump

In the document, the NTA will stand at RM1.86 after the disposal. The RM1.86 = RM1.40 (to be distributed) + RM0.16 (the 10% working capital) + RM0.20 (pre-disposal assets). So by right, after the distribution, REV share price still worth at least $0.46 based on the NTA. Although NTA is a very crude measurement, given that REV is a media company not a capital intensive nature business. Thus share price might worth more than $0.46.

My own judgement, there are arbitrage opportunity if you can enter below RM1.75 or 1.85. If the price reaches RM1.85 or above, the potential gain would have disappear, although post distribution the share price might appreciate given the bull market now and the fact that REV will report a positive earnings.

Concern:
RM210 mil is only an estimate but shouldn't be that far off. The concern is shareholders approval, which i think will still go through, the whole deal will take at least 3-6 months minimum.

Hm yea if selling the stakes to parent co it will make sense. Share prices of iProperty and iCar are richly valued in Australia here so REV is sort of an undervalued proxy to invest. I was monitoring the competition between Carlist and other car ads website and see if it can gain substantial lead/market share from other sites. Sadly if they sell their stakes, there will be no game to play lol

REV may or may not dispose their stakes. 1. It would be a little foolish to dispose given that like you say, the potential of iCar to become the next Jobstreet in car sector. 2. REV and iCar are both under the same founder Patrick Grove. Personally I like their stakes in iCar, their digital media business doesn't sound as attractive.

and all I find out is you trying to promote your financial planning services

特別是關注新進軍的火熱的油氣領域 - Every company loves to jump into the hottest thing in town, either O&G or property development. I do not blame those jumping into property development because there are high profit margin, and learning curve is manageable. O&G industry require steep learning curve and high capex before being able to reap any profit through economic of scale and mass production. Glotec, give them 5 to 10 years to do that.

didn't know TA conclusion can come up with a safe heaven to all in, cant come out alive later.

like i said, they are high in testosterone, did not cum, which is unhealthy. So they release it in stock market.

they must be saying, you owe me or I owe you is the same, since we are subsidiaries lol, left hand out, right hand in.

With the latest 2Q result of 3.93 cents, your estimation of 4.5 cents is already off by 14.5%. Not saying you are wrong and im right, just saying again estimating EPS is a very tricky math, unless the business itself has a strong record of stable earnings like say Public Bank, then estimating it's EPS will be more accurate and less surprise.

yea would make sense if they sell their steel business and invest in some business that can generate higher ROE, or the next best decision is return as dividend to shareholders.

calvintaneng Get these facts straight.

I first promoted PM Corp on 20th September, 2013 at 15 cents. At 22 cents it is up 7 cents or up 46.6% in less than one year.

On the same day 20/9/2013 .........................Current Price.........................Difference


NESTLE Was RM67.8 .................................RM66.90................................Lost 90 cents.

DUTCH LADY RM46.46.................................RM46.70...............................Gain 24 cents
....................................................................................................................Less than 0.1%

PM Corp at 46.6% Gain Beat These 2 World Champion Funds:

Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway only made 25% Yearly.

Peter Lynch(now retired) Magellan Fund made 39% Yearly

Calvan Tan Research Beats Both Hands down 46.6% Less than a Year.


Watch Out For Other World Beating Stocks.

COMING SOON AT "REGAIN CAPITAL: CHOCO SHIP TREAD!"

------------------

I find this amusing that you are comparing your ability to beat Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch because PM Corp gain 46.6% in less than a year, while BH only made CAGR 25% over 40 years, and Peter Lynch made CAGR 39% for the past 20 years.

how did they get so much cash suddenly?

too bad, too many ppl have high testosterone, did not cum, so they need some thrill and action in the market to release it.

well mudajaya is heavily focused in malaysia and involve in industry that have to go through government, gloves are more of an export business, so wont be that bad

My opinion is dont worry too much about EPS or PE, study their competitive advantage. If you are obsessed with EPS, give your estimate 30-50% discount. Supermax keeps a record of all the research house that cover their shares. Several research written at the end of 2011 estimates the EPS for 2011, 2012 and 2013, on average their estimate is off by 8-10%.

As for PE, CIMB Analyst Terence Wong, a CFA gave a TP of RM3.76 at the end of 2013 based on PE of 13.5, a 30% discount to Harta's PE back then, Supermax was trading at RM2.67 back then, hit RM3+ in January and downhill. Not saying anything bad about him, and he did make some right TP before, but it tells you a professional analyst with all information at hand can get it wrong too, thats how hard it is to make estimate. If professional can be wrong while giving a 30% discount to Harta's PE, taking industry average PE of 17 is very optimistic when Harta's current PE is at 22 now, 30% discount should be PE 15, and you can still be wrong at PE 15 just like Terence Wong.

So if you estimate EPS of 21.41 for 2014, give that a 10% discount, make it 19.26. For PE, give it a 40% discount to Harta's PE 22, that will be 13.2. So EPS 0.1926 cents x 13.2PE = RM2.54. That will be more in line so you have more margin of safety if anything goes wrong.

yea i suppose if you hold Supermax for the short term, perhaps you can make some money. You are right Harta might not be a leader forever then you gotta come out with something solid that Supermax can overtake Harta. Well it depends, if FCF is weak, EPS skyrocket will come at the cost of share dilution or high borrowing cost, that would cancel out the gain too.

MY personal opinion is go for the leader in the industry with the best ROE and margin. OF course now harta is consider fairly or overvalued. Unless Supermax is super deeply undervalued. Nothing wrong with predicting EPS or a fair PE, but the market decides the PE, whether you think PE 10 is too cheap, the market can make it stays at PE 10 for many years.

Look at a bigger picture, glove industry is close to be a commodity thing, yea maybe one firm can differentiate it's glove from other through technology like thinner but in the long run, as long the technology isnt patented, everyone can enjoy it, so the selling price is more or less dictated by market demand, no buyer will say oh I prefer Supermax glove over Topglove or others.

With that in mind, the firm that can win is the one with the lowest cost, either from raw material or management efficiency or other ways. Now you have to ask, Hartalega being the one with best profit margin in glove now, does Supermax has the ability to make glove at a lower cost than Harta? This is important because if one day Harta decide to go to war with Supermax, Harta can virtually lower their selling price to the point Supermax cant make any money due to higher cost. Although that isn't a likely scenario.

In spite of saying that, you can still make money from their shares, they take more loan or raise more money, buy land buy factories, produce more gloves, naturally revenue will rise, share will go up, and repeat.

Many ppl here talk about where the share price will move to like a great salesman, so I scroll back to March 2013 and realize they have been a great salesman for more than a year already, when the price is around 0.55-0.60, they foretell why the price is heading for RM1 with larger than life story telling.

Facebook never grow through acquisition in early stage, until IG and Oculus which is a recent thing.

so where are those people that 'foresee' $15 at the end of the year lol

I think a better way to think about the business is since Marco is involved in wholesale and retail then the questions will be:

Is Marco the sole distributor for Casio products and other brands? - If they are then we will have to look at how big is the market in Malaysia.

If no then what are the strength of their distribution network? Why must retailers get Casio products from Marco than other distributors through other distribution network?

For retail, what is their competitive edge compare to other watches retailers? i.e. Lower cost structure, better after sales service etc.

To me what they are selling is neither sunset nor sunrise, but more like a stable/slow growth industry.

just my opinion, which is something i learn from Security Analysis. I think quantitative analysis isn't the hardest part, whether it is accurate or not is a different story and also depends on the model. The hardest part is the qualitative part of the business, and it is the qualitative part of the business that gives 'meaning' to the quantitative side and drive the calculations.

For example in the book Ben Graham shows US Steel's EPS (quantitative) fluctuating over the course of 10 years, you can't see any trend, those EPS YoY seems totally random, however he then showed the steel output (qualitative) of the company, each year's output is very consistent, that's where the strength of the qualitative side drive the business.

Another example is regarding bond coverage, comparing bond issued by a railroad company to a cosmetic company, the cosmetic company consistently have a higher multiple coverage (quantitative) on it's bond compare to the railroad company, which is better because that means more margin of safety, a sudden drop in earnings will not affect the bonds payment. However when they examine the nature of business, railroad's earning power is more solid than cosmetic, which is more reliant on trend or fad, and soon enough the cosmetic business falters and default their bonds payment.

Malaysia Warren Buffett, did Leonfb forgot to swing on Fri?

Congrats, you are the real malaysia Warren Buffett. Your new born blog, first post already can swing the market, imagine if you keep writing, The Edge have to close shop. Dont play play

yea about fair or close to fair now, hopefully can fall back

I bought it at $2.47, been waiting for it to get to $5-5.50 lol

Maybe you can give me facts and reasoning to justify KSL is the most undervalued developer in Asia.

KSL ROE is avg 1-2% higher than SP Setia but nothing so wowderful if compare next to Tambun. If you wana talk about price and value discrepancies, yea maybe if those calculation play out accurately and PE goes to 3-4, there may be a chance for arbitrage play. I don't know about Buffett, but I definitely won't find it cheap at current price, considering the company incur a big drop in earnings on 4th Q last year. And I am sure you didn't see that coming too.

Hong Leong ceasing coverage due to access to management has been particularly difficult over the past couple of years - this one is enough to stop me from investing.

When Buffett says "if past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians" - he also means past is past, future may not be the same, that also means future cannot be predicted. Of course, my willingness to pay based on past performance only may cost me lost opportunity if KSL really turn into the most profitable developer, however it is the same for you, your willingness to pay for future forecast is only as good as if you get it right. My risk is lost opportunity, your risk is misjudged prediction.

One of the top holding of public small cap fund doesn't mean anything.

the most undervalued property developer in Asia - a hard to swallow title
KSL is a no brainer investment for Graham or Buffett-like investors - I don't really see any 'too good to be true' cheapness in this company either. Average 6 years EBIT is 126 million, paying 10x is about 1.2 billion, almost at the price of $3.10.

Why would holding cash be stupid when everything is too expensive to buy, and when uve the opportunity to snap up cheap stocks when market crashes.

Lets make this simple here, the one that listens to somebody's tips and invest will lose money in the long run, the one that spreads rumor to take advantage of their fools will lose money too in the long run

@ itsart, that's a bit like saying let's go casino play blackjack, if you lose 1 mil first time and 2 mil second time, just double up your bets until you recoup all your loses. lol

Punt is neither wise nor wallet fattening, timing is hazardous to health

I will buy at PE 10

bintang21 - there u make a mistake, buying on what other's recommend without proper research.

You are suppose to do your own homework with FA, not waiting for research houses, their information can only serve as a guideline, additional info when individual investor is unable to acquire. TA to me is like looking for wife using astrology and zodiac.

There is a guy, he showed a stock chart to his TA friend, the chart pattern is a classical head and shoulders pattern, his friend jumped off his chair and say 'this is a perfect bullish trend!' and asked what stock is this, we must buy it before it's too late! That guy replied there's no stock, he was merely flipping coins multiple times to create that chart pattern.