patience is important, but in your example your biggest biggest biggest biggest biggest biggest mistake is '那时看是连森美兰皇室成员持股的公司,应该会上的' <- what is this? even if you hold and make 100% profit, that doesn't make you a better investor because you have no idea what/why are you buying. You will just be lucky (in this case you are unlucky). Your luck can run out really fast, your skills will not. Practice your picking skills, read more books, think and improve your knowledge. Don't buy because you HOPE it will go up.

I bought SKPRES last year at average $0.339, I sold it recently at $0.615. 81% gain in 10 months. You know why I sell it? I realized I made a mistake, i shouldn't have bought SKPRES. Except having plenty of cash and no debts, I have no idea how the business will perform in the future, because SKPES never talks about their business in their annual report, besides reporting revenue/profit going up or down. I am just lucky. But I feel embarrassing, it is a bad mistake.

exactly that is what I am saying, without receivables it will still be a net cash but not a net-net, those are different things.

Alright good luck, we will see your report card in 5 years. There are no bullies here, people that encourage you or cheer you up probably have no idea the worth of this company either. You are right not because many people disagree with you or everyone stands behind you, you are correct because your facts and reasoning are right.

Mega Steel's ability to repay it's debt is dependable on if they can make a profit, which is dependable on 1. the ability to slash cost 2. the condition of steel industry. Since steel is commodity, market dictate the price.

yea i know, but as ppl mentioned above, the net net is dependable on receivables, which is dependable on mega steel, that owe the majority of that.

I agree Lionfib is a net-net. But using the land example to justify it doesn't make sense, unless it is a property developer or it is an empty land. Common, who reevaluate their land every year? 90% of companies on KLSE don't. Even if they do there is 0% chance they will sell the land because there are factories on top of that land. The cost of relocating and interruption to business are more expensive than unlocking the land value.

If I have to pick I would prefer Lion Industries over Lionfib, because Lion Ind stakes in Parkson is already worth as much as the current market cap of Lion Ind, not including the 70%+ stake they have on Lionfib. Although it can be a value trap due to the poor environment of steel industry. Otherwise, Parkson + Lionfib stakes would at least make Lion Industries worth RM1.00, not including Lion Industries itself, which is debt free.

Yea that's alright, everyone has their circle of competence, that's why I don't touch Oil & Gas sector because I have no idea how they works. For GHL my knowledge is 50/50 because they involve some back-end IT thingy, which I am not that familiar, compare to say Ecommerce retails.

But I like how the online war is developing in Southeast Asia. The only online company I started monitoring now is REV (Catcha Media). Catcha Group CEO is Patrick Grove. Catcha Group also own iProperty, which is listed in Australia and iCar Asia that runs online car selling portal Carlist.my in Malaysia, and other portal in Thailand and Indonesia.

The interesting thing about this is the power of network effect. Example how Jobstreet match employers and employees, how Ebay matches buyers and sellers or how iProperty matches property buyers and sellers. In all these cases, it is a winner takes all scenario. The more buyers one have the more sellers there will be, vice versa, a world of increasing return, snowball. Most traditional markets operates in diminishing return, i.e. plantation, more palm oil production lead to higher cost and less return. Jobstreet has 70% market share in Malaysia. iProperty I am not sure but I can't think of anyone as monopoly as them now. That is why Seek would rather acquire Jobstreet than move into SE Asia on it's own, it is hard to win.

However in the online car sales market in Malaysia, Thailand & Indonesia, it is still fairly immature, no clear winner, although Carlist.my is already leading by total numbers of listed cars, more than Mudah.my and other car portal in M'sia like Carsifu or Autoworld. Carlist.my is not charging car dealers or sellers any fees to list their cars for now, they are after the market share and monopoly, because they know winner takes all, once all sellers have been 'lock in', plenty of time to decide the fee structure.

So the interesting part is over the next 1-2 years, can Carlist.my become iProperty in the online car market. The interesting thing is of course Patrick Grove has successfully turn iProperty into the 'must go' website for property. He just need to replicate that similar strategies in the car market.

Many investors in Australia kinda missed the opportunity to invest in Seek.com and iProperty now their share price are quite overvalued, so many are pilling into iCar's shares listed in Australia, hoping that it will pay off because ASEAN population is huge especially Indonesia, plenty of cars to be sold. For Malaysia investors, the proxy is REV Catcha Media

I don't quite understand what you are up to. Well I wish I am from some Equity Firm because I am jobless now.

Yea alright, at least I get an idea. So the success is more or less correlated to the usage of online payments. And I though Malaysia's online penetration and ecommerce is like 70%? Higher than most ASEAN countries. So the consideration is definitely competition and substitution. Sounds like investing in Tesla to me.

Christine let's be honest, you wrote many many words up there, and I've read many times but I still don't get the juicy WHY GHL is a good investment besides some vague reasons like 1. Alibaba going to snap up small companies 2. The future is cashless. That sounds saying it is good to invest in Oldtown because everyone has to eat until he/she dies. At least provide something solid and concrete like GHL is going to do this, and high chance it will succeed, because some big MNC are their customers, right now in M'sia no one has this technology, Alibaba will prefer to acquire GHL technology because it complement Ali's existing technology, or like how Ebay acquire Paypal years ago etc, you know things like that. Or at least give a valuation if you can't be bothered to write so much.

Valid points but too close for comfort for me. From my thinking, this deal will definitely go through, Seek want Jobstreet badly.

Christine, what is the valuation of GHL?

PE 29, EV/EBIT 28, that is paying 5 million for a BMW.

Chris, how much should GHL worth in market cap?

Most Undervalued Property Developer in Asia - sounds like something hard to swallow. And I think buffett and graham will only spent 1 min on this stock and move on. Not sure why everyone is so obsessed with RNAV. KSL revenue has grow over 300% in past 6 years but profit just 100% means EPS will be off the mark.

yea the key concern is the money owed by Lionfib's sister companies, one that owe the most is mega steel, which is in deep crap with many debts. And the receivables is not showing sign of reducing but keep on ballooning. The reason I prefer Lion Ind, altho I only bought a very small position to my portfolio size, is that Parkson is consider a somewhat stable business compare to steel, and based on an average earnings for past 6 years of Parkson at PE 10-12 (lower than current PE), conservatively Parkson's market cap will still worth 472-668mil (Lionind market cap is 494mil), and not including the 30% of Lionfib.

The steel industry will recover but just a problem of when, because now the steel supply is not reducing even though there's no more profit to be earn, is that a lot steel manufacturers in China borrowed a lot of money back in 2009-2010 to kick start the China economy following GFC. So now they are forced to keep the factory moving in order to pay back the debts and interest to the banks, even at a loss.

SOP i used to own Lionfib, it is a net-net category, but then i realized most assets are made up of receivables, which is more tricky compare to cash, so i only hold it for few months. You might want to consider Lion Industries? Got stakes in Lionfib and Parkson which combined is at least 1x larger than market cap of Lion Ind itself. However it can be a value trap tho, since steel industry is still in a slum.

oh alright, 50% on marco is heavy, i didnt study the co only know they sell watches so be careful. It really depends on your life goal, many ppl would prefer to be active in investment, but you can also always choose to be passive and invest in index fund, in the long term (30-50 years) index funds at least guarantee you 8-13% p.a. return depending on which fund, and not many investors can get that during that period

Justin just some feedback for you, i can be wrong.

1. If you want to invest for long term, why are you worry about the movement of share prices in your last few blog posts?

2. Did you throw all your savings into one company ? (83lots)

3. Why does being successful in investing (get rich) has to do with you becoming CEO at 60yo?

Everyone calm down lol, arguing on forum will not make u a better investor and counterproductive. Why don't you spend more time like read 500 pages a day

'FPP companies can be considered proxy to consumer products industry' - I am sure I will make a lot more money holding Nestle for the past 10 years compare to holding both Daibochi and Tomypak combined

..the expectations on making a profit in oil and gas companies should be high... - really?

Property seems like the default sector when business wants to expands. An absolute warning sign and a matter of time every property entrant is going to drive the margin of property to the point of zero

I dont give a sht about big fish or small fish. My destiny is decided by my ability to find a great business to invest at a fair/cheap price, not decided by what other investors do.

looks like a so so company from business and past performance

i dont care who is 做庄. 庄 vs business fundamental, it is obvious who wins in the long run.

Doesn't matter? Maybe you will make money before your luck runs thin

Hm there is no value investing in Ecoworld at current price, that's just speculative investing.

so if the company doesn't convert the land to property development or sell it, everyone dies

ok my bad, tweedy browne has published that, generally higher yield outperform lower yield companies but those that have higher yield with low payout ration outperform all

I wonder that buy in below 7% DY and sell out above 9% DY if there is any historical record for good return? example research was done that companies with low PE, low P/B generally outperform.

Society and country thrive on even playing field. When the game is fair, competitions will improve the society and country as a whole. And talking about history which can dated back to 40,000 years ago, it is not the malays that are the first to step on this land. Let's just say Malays are the 'owner' of this land, that doesn't mean you can get special privilege over other races forever and ever, that is like saying because you are Genghis Khan's super great grandson, so everyone should treat you like royalty. I have nothing against Malays or any race, but everyone act like a man and fight like a man, stop pointless talk like you go back to China, India la etc. Fight on equal footing, judge someone based on their heart not the size of their slippers or the color of their skin. But when someone sensed that the government is not giving a level playing field, then thats when instability exist.

where is that guy that says it will go down to 0.20?

If you are buying for the long term, paying slightly more i.e PE 17-20 for companies like PBB is fine, the difference compare to paying PE 12-15 is that your long term compounded return will be slightly lower however you will still make a satisfactory return. The difference will the negligible.

I agree that PBB is the best run bank in Malaysia, has one of the highest net interest margin (NIM). But I am waiting for a PE of 12-15 lol, so around RM15. That will probably happen only if there is a big crisis though.

The mission of a great investor today is to find quality companies like Walmart, Nestle, Coke, Gilette, Procter & Gamble etc when they are relatively unknown and young.

"只是坚持股票基本面长期投资未必会是明智之举" - If you read Snowball you will understand Warren Buffett does not have a lot business experience when he is 25 years old in 1955 besides delivering newspapers, selling coke and grocery stores and he started with $100K when he form his partnership in 1955. He did not have any connection with management in companies he invested in, at least for the first 10-20 years. So using fundamental is not impossible. The equation here is simple. 20-30% is very likely to be your long term return, if you are as good as Buffett, Koon, Pabrai, Lynch etc. The only difference is how much money do you invest in over the next 20-30 years. The more you invest in, the bigger you can roll your money. Warren did it through partnership fees. Most will be relying on savings to roll the money, so whether you are 1m, 10m or 100m in 30 years, that depends on your return and total invested capital over the 30 years.

Why is trade signalz asking people to look at true valuation of a company when he is talking about 'trade' & 'signals'

Yea I get what you mean, many companies' management always make promises to execute plans but not all of them get done. Not saying CBIP can't do what they say, if they can do 60,000 ha in 10 years, thats the perfect scenario, so just need to look at what are the potential downside that might prevent them from achieving that in the long term, like maybe cash, competition etc. If we invested in KLK or GENP since 2000, the CAGR today would be over 20% p.a.

their patents and technology interested me, the plantation plan also, but that will increase the capex and reduce FCF, have to research deeper to make sure they can be another GENP or KLK but not some so-so company lol

ok OSK mentioned they probably would be taking in term loan

Hi Sos, I read on the The Edge that an average per ha require a cost of RM19,500 to plant, 6000ha a year means RM117 million. CBIP would not have such a money or free cash flow of that huge right?

matawang you so smart, can predict the future

Fundamental wise, Dsonic is strong

Really? Which part is strong

Why can't you wait?

Just my personal opinion, TA doesn't really matter to long term investor that much. Whether the share price is 5% higher/lower today compare to yesterday, as long there is a margin of safety. Regarding TA to predict economy downturn, plenty of economists are still in denial when GFC 08 are already underway, and Im sure plenty of TA learners did not escape that crisis either.

1. Amazon, Linkedin & Facebook have astronomical PE is not a justification that any company with lower PE is worth investing. Yahoo has a PE of 1000 before dotcom bust.

2. It is correct that a trend can persist for longer than expected, i.e. Over-optimisim or over-pessimism. Dsonic PE may likely to continue uptrend due to the buzz and excitement built by the market. It may also noted that you might able to make a quick profit, just don't get caught naked.

3. At the current price and PE, all the future contacts, rumors, speculative deals have already or most likely been priced in, although, as mention above, more contracts and speculation may continue to drive the price upward. Indirectly that also means Dsonic has no margin of safety but to deliver the expected numbers or risk become another Zhulian

4. In reference to PE, PE itself is a quantitative factor. Quantitative factor is only useful if it is supported by a qualitative survey of the company. Dsonic main business comes from 2 areas. 1) Supply smart card i.e. Mykad & Passport 2) ICT solution support. To me selling Mykad/Passport is quite a finite source of income, unless I am required to change my Mykad/Passport for something more high tech every single year. This leave them only one possible lucrative business which is providing ICT solution and maintenance to their customers. I would not have any idea how big is the market but their business totally relies on government sector. Add in they are a newly listed company, insufficient track record to show sustainability of earning power, negative free cash flow, high debts, total liabilities is over total equity. The probabilities for something to go wrong is high.

5. And Dsonic has an ongoing 30m litigation with Huawei.

@ chineooi if you don't have a clue what is the right price, you shouldnt be buying at all. Asking someone is even worst.

ohok got what you mean, yea my calculation is rough, but that business sold is close to 95%+ of the whole Jobstreet. Me? I got a degree in hospitality lol.

oh alright I get that, yea a few companies buying not just SEEK, SEEK being the largest of all.