https://www.reuters.com/article/column-russell-crude-china/rpt-column-chinas-oil-product-export-surge-shows-risks-to-opecs-gains-russell-idUSL3N1PA1HL

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Jan 15 (Reuters) - The standout feature of China’s crude oil and product trade data for December was the surge in exports of refined fuels to a record, but it already appears that this dynamic may not be sustainable.

China shipped out 6.17 million tonnes of refined products in December, equivalent to about 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), using the BP conversion factor of 8 barrels of product per tonne.

This was up 6.6 percent from November’s 5.79 million tonnes, and took the total for the year to 52.16 million tonnes, equivalent to about 1.14 million bpd.

The strength in December’s exports of products, which include gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, was most likely a reflection of strong crude imports in November, when 9.01 million bpd were brought in, the second highest on record.

The glut of crude available to Chinese refiners in November and December was also coupled with still strong margins for products across Asia.

The profit for processing a barrel of Dubai crude at a refinery in Singapore averaged $7.17 in December, according to Reuters data.

This was above the current moving 365-day average of $7.05 a barrel, although it was down from a 2017 peak of $9.07 for the month of September.

This meant that Chinese refiners were able to take advantage of strong prices for products in December, while processing crude oil that was most likely bought in October, when the price of Middle East benchmark Oman crude was still around $55 a barrel.

But this dynamic has shifted fairly dramatically in recent weeks, with crude prices surging and refining margins dropping.

Oman crude futures ended at $67.10 a barrel on Jan. 12, the highest in just over three years, while the refinery margin DUB-SIN-REF dropped to $5.85 a barrel, close to the lowest since May last year.

Crude prices and refinery margins have an inverse relationship, with the profit from producing fuels tending to peak in the weeks after crude prices reach lows.

For example, when the refinery profits reached their 2017 peak of $11.01 a barrel on Sept. 1, it was about six weeks after Oman futures recorded their closing low for the year of $43.47 on June 21.

CHINA‘S INDEPENDENT REFINERS ARE KEY

The sharp jump in crude benchmarks in recent weeks may well be a reflection of the market view that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies in the deal to cut output are successfully tightening the market.

But higher crude prices undermine the profitability of their refinery customers, thus making it more likely that output will decline, at least to the point where inventories of refined fuels are low enough to cause their prices to rise, thus restoring margins.

For Chinese refiners, the trick is to work out whether it’s still worth importing crude for processing into fuels for exports.

In some ways the current market dynamic in Asia is an exercise in working out which of the refiners who export product have the most efficient plants, and can therefore withstand lower product margins.

While the major, state-owned refiners in China operate new generation units, it’s likely that the smaller, independent refiners may struggle to compete on level terms with their larger domestic counterparts, and also efficient large-scale export refineries in other parts of Asia, such as those in Singapore or India’s west coast.

Given that smaller refiners were behind much of the gain in China’s crude imports in 2017, any sign that they may pull back on purchases would be bearish for crude imports.

Independent refiners, sometimes referred to as teapots, imported about 70.5 million tonnes of crude in 2017, up from 42.1 million in 2016, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecasts.

This means that the independent refiners imported about 568,000 bpd more last year than they did in 2016, accounting for much of China’s overall increase in crude imports of about 800,000 bpd.

In some ways China’s independent refiners have become the single most important driver of overall global crude demand growth, meaning their health becomes of increasing importance.

The current expectation is that these refiners will continue to import more crude, given the authorities in Beijing appear to be enabling this by granting them quotas to buy foreign oil directly.

But ultimately, what will determine if this turns out to be the case is whether China’s independent refiners can compete domestically and regionally with the bigger players. (Editing by Richard Pullin)

Didn't know theft is also a risk to refinery!
What else you see in this article?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-singapore-refinery/singapore-arrests-17-seizes-millions-in-suspected-shell-oil-heist-idUSKBN1EY06D

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Seventeen men have been arrested and millions of dollars in cash seized as part of an investigation into a suspected oil theft at Shell’s biggest refinery, Singapore police said on Tuesday. The arrests, made during raids on Sunday, come after Royal Dutch Shell Plc reported the theft to Singapore authorities at its Pulau Bukom industrial site in August last year.

The company said in a news release that the arrests included “a limited number of Shell employees” and that it anticipated “a short delay in the supply operations at Bukom.” Those arrested, all men, ranged in age from 30 to 63.

Police said they also seized S$3.05 million ($2.29 million) in cash and a small, 12,000-deadweight-tonne tanker. They have also frozen the suspects’ bank accounts, the police said.

Bukom is the largest wholly owned Shell refinery in the world in terms of crude distillation capacity, according to the company’s website. Shell declined to say how much oil had been stolen.

Shipping and oil refining have contributed significantly to Singapore’s rising wealth during the past decades.

The Southeast Asian city-state is one of the world’s most important oil trading hubs, with most of the Middle East’s crude oil passing through Singapore before being delivered to the huge consumers in China, Japan and South Korea.

Singapore is also Southeast Asia’s main refinery hub and the world’s biggest marine refueling station.

Shell is one of the biggest and longest established foreign investors in Singapore. Its oil refinery on Bukom island, situated 5.5 km to the southwest of Singapore, is the company’s biggest such facility in the world, with a processing capacity of 500,000 barrels per day.

Southeast Asia is a hotspot of illegal oil trading. In some cases, oil has been illegally siphoned from storage tanks, but there have also been thefts at sea.

The Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP) says that siphoning of fuel and oil at sea in Asia, including through armed robbery and piracy, saw sharp increases between 2011 and 2015.

There has been a modest decline since then, although the organisation said in a quarterly report that oil theft was still “of concern,” especially in the South China Sea, off the east coast of Malaysia.

The stolen fuel is generally sold across Southeast Asia, offloaded directly into trucks or tanks at small harbors away from oil terminals.

If you see the q4 results their operations have been generating healthy cashflow ... its liabilities should deplete at faster pace.

If follow theedge historical PE 9.5, EPS 25 sen for FY2018 the price should be 2.40.
If FFB recovers plantation may bring 10 to 15 sen.

I think Q1 results to be announced in Feb will be a good one. Many directors have recently bought shares.

@ Overeact

When theedge writes the IB will take note and opportunity to issue target price when the time is ripe. It depends whether to enter now or wait till the IB report is out.

The army has been lining up general please lead the way!

秦姐姐出手了?

Take up rate for Precinct 2 has been encouraging.

This should support the crack spread. Thank you sharing

Posted by InsiderR > Jan 4, 2018 12:05 PM | Report Abuse

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3321068-u-s-energy-infrastructure-faces-...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-energy/winter-storm-cha...

After Harvey hurricane, now winter storm for the coming months.
Heating demand record high, some refineries shut down etc.
Demand of refined product shoot up again?

Salute to all who has faith in HY.

Happy New Year All! Warriors to rise again.

@soojinhou I think I am reading it same like you

The tax loss carried forward is expected to be substantially utilised by profit made in 2017.

Going forward HY effective tax rate is to remain lower as there is still unabsorbed reinvestment allowance of 495 million.

That's a lot of savings ... cover about 70% of the upgrade capex of 700 mil and not forgetting the 700 mil itself will also bring additional tax allowances.

Just pump at Shell station ... car queing. Feel good!

Cant cheat. It has recently been listed on the MSCI together with Petron ... must be for a reason.

Must thank HY management.

公司賺錢 銀行里的銭 騙不了

HY has been listed on the Morgan Stanley Indexes for a reason.

I agree.

Posted by HENGYUAN TP $30 (ilovehits) > Dec 29, 2017 05:45 PM | Report Abuse

Too fast too furious. Need to pay back... I thank HY...

Oil price up gain.
RM strengthens against USD.

Approaching 30 mil transacted amount in less than half an hour.

I have the same encounter. Repented and move on. Cheers!

Still not a top gainer. Nestle added 2.10 today.

Once you are in the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes, you are noticeable to global fund managers. Tiongkok fund managers will have upper hand.

Beginning to see the effect after inclusion of HY into the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes.

Today transacted amount already RM90 mil. Thanks to Tiongkok buying.

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 28): Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd rose 3.61% this morning, following a positive technical outlook on the stock.

At 9.39am, Petron Malaysia rose 50 sen to RM14.36 with 247,300 shares done.

RHB Retail Research said Petron Malaysia may climb higher after posting a long white candle and hitting its new 52-week high.

In a trading stocks note today, the research house said with the 21-day SMA line edging upwards, this also implies a positive outlook sentiment.

“A bullish bias may appear above the RM13.50 level, with an exit set below the RM12.60 threshold.

“Towards the upside, the near-term resistance level is at RM15.00. This is followed by the RM17.00 level,” it said.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petron-malaysia-361-positive-technicals

Hi, I still cannot understand why someone said the IB making losses for issuing the CW. Can lecture abit. Thx

Posted by Alex™ > Dec 28, 2017 09:10 AM | Report Abuse

IB this round cry no tear

Petron not bad today. Good to see both moving in parallel.

Calm before the storm?

New shale oil may not be enough
Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/12/27/new-shale-oil-may-not-be-enough/#UD4HyH5PaWpPzUzy.99

The Xinhua press has previously carried these news.

Hengyuan Refining looks for options to export to China http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/24/c_136312012.htm

Hengyuan Refining launches upgrading project in Malaysia
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-08/25/c_136555655.htm

The Chairman said this ... "With new and alternative energy emerging and in order to build a base for Hengyuan Refining's potential expansion in the downstream business, we will also keep an eye on market development," he added."

So HY has expansion plan to go downstream?

Wow .. like that also can but still a piece of good news!

- Euro 4M Mogas Project

This is a crucial project to ensure the going-concern of our Company and sustainability of the business to meet the industry’s future requirements. Our project team is developing the Basic Engineering Design and Front End Engineering Design (FEED) work with a reputable contractor and licensor with support from SHPC to ensure that the product specification is compliant to Euro 4M mogas specifications upon its planned implementation in October 2018. Following our approval process, the Final Investment Decision (FID) for the project will be presented to the Board in 2nd quarter of 2017. Thereafter, the projects and technology teams will focus on project execution, targeting to complete the construction during the second half of 2018. To minimise downtime outside the Turnaround period, both the equipment tie-ins and completion are targeted during Major Turnaround 2018 (TA2018).

RISK: If the refinery is not able to produce Euro IV compliant products by the regulatory deadline, then our customer will import their product requirements, which are Euro 4M compliant. These imports cannot be co-mingled with the products that the refinery is able to produce now as they are Euro 2 compliant. Through the Product Offtake Agreement (POA), our customer can contractually use our facilities to throughput their products. This means that the operations and financial performance of HRC would be significantly impacted during the period in which we are unable to produce Euro 4M products post the compliance date. Management and SHPC’s current perspective is that we are confident that the project is on track and our refinery is able to meet the regulatory timeline by leveraging on SHPC’s technical resources and guidance. Management is reviewing the project progress weekly to ensure challenges and hurdles are effectively dealt with to protect the project schedule.

Major Turnaround 2018 (TA2018)

The major turnaround in 2018 is driven by legislative requirements of the Malaysia Department of Occupational Safety and Health (DOSH). HRC subscribes to the DOSH Statutory Safety Inspection (SSI) programme which is a structured integrity inspection and assurance programme. Part of the requirement is establishing a baseline of equipment inspection status, which requires all equipment to be opened in 2018. A full inspection of the equipment during TA2018 will thus enable us to renew our license to operate as issued by DOSH. With this inspection, our refinery is in a good position to negotiate a four-year turnaround cycle post-2018 with DOSH. During the turnaround, maintenance work will be executed to ensure the integrity and reliability of operation of all equipment. The scope is established based on previous inspections, our technical advisor’s experience and issues we observed during the current plant operation. Scope definition, preparation, resourcing of materials is an important 2017 deliverable. A significant investment for equipment renewal that will take place in TA2018 is the replacement of the internals and top dome of the catalyst regenerator of the Long Residue Catalytic Cracker Unit (LRCCU). The life of these internals is 18 years and replacement is due in 2018, as confirmed during the inspections in the previous turnaround in 2015.

RISK: Planning and execution is crucial to a successful and timely Turnaround. Any unexpected incident or emergent scope arising during the event could result in an extended shutdown resulting in a financial impact. The project team which has been assigned to this crucial project comes with extensive experience in HRC’s previous turnarounds and operates within the well established governance framework. Moreover the regenerator top dome project is executed in partnership with contractors that have experience with the manufacturing and installation in similar units elsewhere. The manufacturing of the new dome is not schedule critical.

Additionally, the Turnaround is crucial as it is the only opportunity to modify equipment for safety, efficiency, reliability, increased capacity or for economic reasons. Several future projects which will be tied-in into the plant during TA2018, are also being developed in 2017.

Potentially a takeover target
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petrochina-trading-chief-take-global-rivals-major-expansion-drive-%E2%80%94-sources

Very good.

Crack spread now higher at USD10.111
http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=DEC_2017_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=Z7&year=2017&exchangeCode=XNYM&chartMode=dynamic

Holiday mood already

shallow ...

but then there are many tp now.

joeshare i remember otb sifu was saying buffer 30% for better entry price.

We are not only smart investors we are warrior investors.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/140092.jsp
Hengyuan: Sell, Hold or Buy - Koon Yew Yin
Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Fri, 1 Dec 2017, 02:23 PM

Thank you everyone. Congratulation!

The schedule is correct. They stick to it.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Nov 29, 2017 09:20 AM | Report Abuse

The management had given a schedule to account department to release quarter result, there is a schedule to follow.
Initial schedule is 30/11/2017, I check out that the quarter result may be released a day earlier in view of good performance.
May be the quarter result will be released on 29/11/2017.

Thank you.
Ooi

Results to be released tomorrow is confirmed.

kimhaolian ... haha
ok will now take note of any selling by the big institution.

Petronm now debt free. So fast!

Can approach ASB's broker to sell a block of shares says 5% if the price is right with a discount (normally willing to consider 10% to 15% less). Holding of HY shares by ASB are currently designated under Trading category. Anyone interested?