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2021-02-07 11:27 | Report Abuse
bpsiah, observatory, Sslee, pharker, Abrahmi, Michael Teng, stockraider, sensonic, thank you for your comments.
observatory, yes these figures make more sense, because they talk about added capacity of 117 billion pieces of nitrile gloves. I can see this happening over the next 5-7 years. To make a comparison, Top Glove have plan to increase their capacity by 100 billion pieces to 190 billion pieces by 2025. Hartalega have plan to increase their capacity by 55 billion pieces to 95 billion pieces in 2027. And I believe Supermax's expansion will be a lot larger than the projected 22 billion additional pieces in the next 2 years; for example, the US factory alone will likely yield at least 10 billion pieces per year.
Nevertheless, Intco's movements are very worth monitoring. China is certainly capable of flooding the market with bad quality product, and especially developing countries might suffer from that. However, while China can overcome, in the long run, challenges such as poorer logistics network and more inflexible financial system, the problems with fuel prices and labor costs would still remain, which would mean that with equal technology (provided that's the case), the Chinese companies will always produce equal quality product at more expensive price.
Sslee and pharker, eventually the profit margins will likely normalize, as they do in every industry in the long run. However, this will not happen before 2024 (3 years from now), as evident by the reports of all of the financial analysts.
stockraider, I am happy that you are here. When you spend the time trolling under my articles, I know I am on the right path. So thank you for your confirmation. Regarding your question, although I think it was made clear in the article, in the short run demand far outstrips supply. Thus, nothing will change for anybody, including the Chinese players. The US, as well as every other country, need all the gloves they could get. This includes unbanning Top Glove - hence it will be good for them in the short run, as explained in the article. In the long run the company will most certainly not lose 50% of its share in the US market, because the added capacity in the US covers only about 25-30% of the country's needs. This will likely result in 3-5% loss of revenue for Top Glove in the long run, if any. As explained in the article, Top Glove is one of the companies that will suffer the least from this move, together with Supermax and Sri Trang (Thailand). The companies this may cause more problems to are the China companies, as well as the companies that export predominantly to the US.
As for Supermax, it is certain that producing gloves in the US (or in the UK where they also plan to set up a factory) is more expensive than doing it in Malaysia - that is why the industry has been flourishing here and not elsewhere. However, the US government has mentioned multiple times its commitment to supporting US-based production of PPE, and this is likely why Supermax have decided to set up a factory there. This will result in at least two long-term positives for the company - steady income from US government contracts, and improved relationship for imports even from Malaysian production facilities.
2021-02-06 19:31 | Report Abuse
Hi observatory, thank you very much for your detailed comment.
I am planning a longer article on the supply-side dynamics, but for now here are a few notes:
Top Glove's latest capacity expansion figures as of yesterday are:
- Right now: 93 billion pieces
- By end 2021: 112 billion pieces
- By end 2022: 136 billion pieces
See: https://www.topglove.com/App_ClientFile/7ff8cb3f-fbf6-42e7-81da-6db6a0ab2ef4/Assets/IR%20Presentation/TG%20Website_English_050221.pdf
For Intco, I am truly skeptical on a lot of their plans or at least on the figures they are releasing for a few reasons:
1) There is currently no existing raw material capacity in the world. Therefore, they have to build everything from scratch, starting from the NBR production facilities, going through the former/mold production, and ending with the entire distribution and logistics network. This will take several years to achieve at the scale they are planning it.
2) I think many of their announcements overlap and/or are unclear. I don't read Chinese, but many of their "announcements" (messages on a message board) are ambiguous. For instance, it is not clear if the Hunan province facilities will produce 16+40 billion gloves, or 40 billion (expanded plan from 16 billion previously). Additionally, it is not clear if this will all be additional capacity, or their plans are simply changing geographically based on where there might be available land for factory setup.
3) Overall, as you mentioned, the total announced added capacity of 284 billion gloves doesn't make any sense, unless they have actually made a direct contract with the Chinese government, which alone will absorb a huge part of this added supply in the coming years.
China suffers from a number of disadvantages as compared to Malaysia, including non-existent raw material production capacity (they are specialized in PVC glove production, not nitrile), much higher gas cost, and much higher labor cost. Thus, they will have to build pretty much everything from scratch, and they will have to work on a much thinner profit margin practically forever. I have no doubt that the Chinese government will aid them in this effort, but I think ultimately the added capacity will be much lower, and their entire effort will be a lot less profitable than they make it look like. There is a reason China hasn't been competing with Malaysia so far in this otherwise very lucrative (for Malaysian companies) business.
2021-02-06 14:24 | Report Abuse
In case anyone is interested in the situation in the US:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-02-06-story-h1540340424-Top_Glove_Hartalega_Supermax_The_US_Demand_for_Gloves_and_Homeland_Prod.jsp
2021-02-06 14:24 | Report Abuse
In case anyone is interested in the situation in the US:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-02-06-story-h1540340424-Top_Glove_Hartalega_Supermax_The_US_Demand_for_Gloves_and_Homeland_Prod.jsp
2021-02-05 20:10 | Report Abuse
Targeted, henry888, speakup, thank you for your comments.
henry888, in general the institution that observes and takes action when irregularities with the financial markets are spotted, is the Securities Commission. You can contact them at email and phone number provided above if you believe there might be anything that might need to be reported.
speakup, PE is unfortunately not everything. Although I must say that PE beyond 50 very rarely makes any sense.
2021-02-04 16:06 | Report Abuse
valendinlou, for someone with a brand-new account, coincidentally created as one of the most controversial reports in the modern history of Bursa came out, spamming useless messages in the forum of a counter you claim to have no involvement in, you have big mouth to talk about conning people. I wonder if when they hire you to troll here, they at least check your financial literacy though.
2021-02-04 15:32 | Report Abuse
dusti, magus, Covidcovid, Citadel00, thank you for your comments.
I suggest that everyone just waits patiently. If you are impatient, remember that next month, the quarterly report for Top Glove's 2Q FY21 will be released, with 70% dividend payout attached.
2021-02-04 15:16 | Report Abuse
valendinlou
"I have worked in HK stockbroking before. Hongkies have so many China companies to play and they are much more exciting. The wonāt be bothered by companies like Top Glove. Just a peanut for them"
...
"So what they report RM3.2b profit for 2Q? Everyone knows FY22 profit will fall and FY23 will fall further. Unless Ah Chai gives a profit guarantee for FY22-FY23, if not, no one will give a premium to the stock"
For someone who claims to have worked in stockbroking, you seem to have a very poor understanding of the finance world. The size of the HK market has very little to do with the appetite of the local investors for profitable businesses. On the contrary, exactly because the HK market features more advanced participants, they look for value more carefully than the market participants in less developed markets.
Actually Ah Chai doesn't need to give a profit guarantee (again, for someone claiming to have worked in stockbroking, your concepts of finance appear to be very childish, this is certainly concerning). He gives a dividend payout guarantee, which translates into direct returns for the shareholders. If your plan is to invest in the company in 2023, this means an opportunity cost of RM1.50-RM1.75 per share in missed dividends for the period. Good luck with your strategy!
2021-02-03 15:16 | Report Abuse
dusti, Beginner_Newbie, ampangwawasan, thank you for your comments.
dusti, you can email the Securities Commission at aduan@seccom.com.my, or you can call them at 03 6204 8991.
2021-02-03 13:39 | Report Abuse
PunTatBerSiul, "glove" is not a commodity to begin with, it's a personal protective equipment item. It is categorized as an essential product in the medical industry, and since recently is categorized as such in other industries, including manufacturing, food processing, and travel. It will remain as such for an extended period of time, beyond the COVID pandemic.
2021-02-03 13:24 | Report Abuse
lkoky, Anthem2, ChickenRoaster, thank you for your comments.
Thank you for pointing out the updated file. It seems like nothing has changed for Top Glove - no shares bought back. Some shares have been bought back for Kossan and Harta on Friday though.
2021-02-03 10:03 | Report Abuse
Seek and sikusiku, thank you for your comments.
sikusiku, yes, the data file is missing now, and the official page shows the data for January 29 instead.
2021-02-02 13:09 | Report Abuse
lavenderguy, la huat, MuttsInvestor, thank you for your comments.
lavenderguy, we finally got a confirmation on that at the end of last week. Both Novavax's vaccine and Johnson & Johnson's vaccine were shown to be less efficient against the South African variant as compared to both the "old" variant and the UK variant. It is to be expected that similar results will be shown with other vaccines. Additionally, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine performed worse in South America, where the Brazil variant is likely spreading, in line with the results reported earlier by Sinovac.
MuttsInvestor, unfortunately Singapore has the very significant advantage of deeper pockets. The price per dose Singapore has secured their vaccines at, is significantly higher than the price paid by anyone else in the region, and likely only very few other countries in the world have paid prices higher than those paid by Singapore. Thus, we cannot draw a direct comparison this way. For instance, neither Japan, nor Australia, nor Korea, have started their vaccination campaigns yet.
2021-02-02 13:02 | Report Abuse
SteadyT and CJkenho, thank you for your comments.
SteadyT, we will not know that before Bursa releases the official figures tonight after 00:00 o'clock. We only know that the short seller was short selling Top Glove on Friday, so it might be rather unlikely that at the same time they were covering their positions.
CJkenho, it is hard to determine where most of the action was coming from, unfortunately.
2021-02-01 11:37 | Report Abuse
sutp, Orlando, michaelwong, thank you for your comments.
sutp, I agree that initially likely that was the main idea. However, the short seller was actually squeezed hard when the rumors for a new MCO started circulating in the same week they dumped the biggest part of their short position. I am sure this has changed a lot of their plans.
Orlando, I don't think so. The calculations are based on official data of activity released by Bursa Malaysia, so unless they are providing erroneous data there is no reason to believe the calculations are wrong.
Regarding your comment about my "statement", you have to read it in the context in which it has been written. Please read above sutp's comment, which is in line with what my thinking about the initial strategy of the short seller was.
2021-01-31 21:26 | Report Abuse
cutie, thank you for your comment.
I don't plan to open shop. My knowledge is limited, but I like to share my findings, hoping they would benefit others, and hoping through discussion I could also gather constructive opinions from others. I believe in the long run this is a lot more valuable than "selling" services for a fee.
2021-01-31 21:22 | Report Abuse
Orlando, that is a question which I believe can only be answered by someone intimately familiar with the operational part of the procedure. Unfortunately I don't have such insight.
2021-01-30 23:46 | Report Abuse
Vairocana9999, Imagine333, Goldberg, JuzzyOracle, Orlando, thank you for your comments.
Orlando, on why the short seller has chosen specifically the glove sector (they are shorting the big 4, not just Top Glove) - the sentiment was towards a downtrend since the vaccine announcements last September. The factory-related problems of Top Glove only exacerbated the problem. However, none of these events caused any significant damage as far as the companies' earnings potential goes. So it's a good moment for a short seller to use the situation when media constantly attack the sector, to cause a shake-off of the weak holders and profit from the inevitable eventual rebound.
On the text you quoted, this is a standard message on how the RSS facility works on Bursa, nothing out of the extraordinary within this particular quoted text.
2021-01-30 19:06 | Report Abuse
"PunTatBerSiul "...trying to persuade others not to like the company. "
What is there to persuade others over a company which seems to gain profit over dead bodies?
They profit due to pandemic and deaths are one-time lottery. After the pandemic, it's all back to slogging for new orders."
Weird, user "PunTatBerSiul" came to one of my article a few days ago, spamming that there is no pandemic and it's actually a scam that we need to ignore. Now he believes that the glove companies are earning through piles of bodies. See here for reference of his comments: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-01-27-story-h1540184805-The_World_and_Malaysia_Under_the_COVID_Siege_Setting_Our_Expectations_R.jsp
2021-01-30 18:41 | Report Abuse
"Honesty" --> for someone with a 2-day account, who apparently doesn't like Top Glove, you have plenty of messages in the Top Glove forum. To be exact, 100% of your 68 messages so far are in the Top Glove forum.
This is the first time I see such a generous person - wasting so much time writing in the forum of a company he/she doesn't like, trying to persuade others not to like the company. You must be canonized as a saint, such a selfless act.
2021-01-30 14:44 | Report Abuse
newbie8080, lkoky, trading2019, sensonic, thank you for your comments.
lkoky, that might depend on the agreement you have signed with your broker when you have subscribed to their brokerage service. I advise you to check with them on that.
2021-01-29 23:24 | Report Abuse
FairNSquare, Michael Teng, LimitUp, thank you for your comments.
Michael Teng, I agree that the activity, in particular on January 4, 2021, would have stretched the existing rules to the extreme to be properly justified. Unfortunately I didn't see a warning by the SC and Bursa back then (I might have missed it, sorry if that's the case).
2021-01-29 19:48 | Report Abuse
In case anyone is interested - the reasons why I am not considering selling my stock anytime soon:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-01-29-story-h1540218377-Short_Squeeze_or_Fundamentals_Why_I_Am_Not_Selling_Any_Time_Soon.jsp
2021-01-29 10:10 | Report Abuse
cpchuan, katsul51, Seek, CJkenho, Anthem2, calvin69, thank you for your comments.
Seek, that was most certainly a good arbitrage opportunity, if you want to use it as such, since yesterday was a holiday in Malaysia.
Anthem2, yes, it is unclear how much of that SBL amount was used in December though, and unfortunately based on the very limited amount of disclosures required by Bursa, it is very hard to extrapolate anything resembling an accurate estimate.
2021-01-28 21:55 | Report Abuse
gloves63, sorry, missed responding.
The US *may* be able to inoculate enough of their population by the end of Q3 2021, yes. However, a number of things need to go right for this to happen and to have a meaningful impact:
- Vaccine production
- Vaccine logistics
- Willingness of people to vaccinate
- Virus mutations
2021-01-28 19:31 | Report Abuse
cpchuan, thank you for your comment.
Yes, please check my recently posted article here: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-01-28-story-h1540191595-Has_the_Short_Seller_Closed_the_Big_Gloves_Short.jsp
2021-01-28 19:30 | Report Abuse
Seek, thank you for your comment.
The 40 million announced on January 5 were not the only SBL transaction EPF did. They did a number of other transactions before New Year, in December.
2021-01-28 18:03 | Report Abuse
I just posted this in regards with the question on if the short seller has closed the short position:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-01-28-story-h1540191595-Has_the_Short_Seller_Closed_the_Big_Gloves_Short.jsp
2021-01-28 14:38 | Report Abuse
observatory, thank you once again for your detailed explanation.
I found the forum/message board a few days ago and I also spotted the message regarding additional 4.5 billion nitrile glove capacity. It was unclear to me if that capacity is part of the earlier quoted 12 billion total capacity, or if that is additional capacity not included in the 12 billion, or if it's capacity they expect to come online very soon. That might be because I was using Google Translate though.
Top Glove have actually provided the most detailed breakdown of their incoming capacity, followed by the breakdown of Supermax. According to Top Glove's estimate their total capacity by the end of 2021 will be 110 billion gloves, of which 56 billion will be for nitrile gloves (up from 91 billion and 41 billion respectively currently). By the end of 2022, their estimated total capacity will be 134 billion gloves, of which 77.5 billion will be for nitrile gloves. Additionally, Top Glove's production lines for latex and nitrile gloves can be interchanged.
From what I understand, Intco's break-down of extra capacity in terms of types of gloves is "confidential". However, I can imagine a big part of it would go to PVC gloves.
2021-01-28 11:23 | Report Abuse
stockraider, thank you for your comments (copied from and to a handful of other places for good measure). Clearly you haven't read the article beyond the first paragraph.
In any case, no matter if there will be a total lockdown or not, the situation remains as it is projected to be. A total lockdown can get us closer to normalcy (RMCO level) faster, no total lockdown will mean a longer period of time in a no-interstate travel environment.
2021-01-28 10:26 | Report Abuse
observatory, thank you very much for your detailed comment. I am very happy that this is turning into a discussion, because this was the main purpose of this post (as you can see from its brevity).
As we have discussed before and elsewhere, the expansion plans of Intco at present appear highly inflated. However, even if those plans materialize over the next 2-3 years, they will still be behind Top Glove both in total production capacity, and more importantly - in production capacity in high profit margin segments. Thus, it is pretty much certain that the valuations of Intco on the Shenzhen stock exchange are elevated.
I also agree with you that Hartalega's valuation traditionally has been on an inflated side, in my humble opinion of course. That is why I didn't mention them in the post above.
2021-01-28 10:16 | Report Abuse
Goldberg, thank you very much once again for sharing this data.
It will indeed be a battle, and I believe eventually countries will start closing their borders, and imposing restrictions similar to the ones in Malaysia. In fact, just yesterday the UK announced such new restrictions. I expect other European countries to follow. The more the new variants spread, i.e. the more people travel around, the lower the effect of the vaccination campaign would be.
2021-01-28 10:12 | Report Abuse
gloves63, thank you for your comment. According to Noor Hisham's comment from a few days ago, Malaysia's plan is to complete the vaccination program either by the end of 2021, or by early 2022 (see: https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/01/25/dr-noor-hisham-covid-19-vaccination-programme-expected-to-be-completed-end/1943932). Previously Khairy said that "if you are a healthy adult under 60 and not a frontline worker, it is safe to assume that your turn will come by Q3 or after." (see: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/khairy-explains-malaysias-vaccine-procurement-process-delivery-schedule). However, unless the government manages to procure more vaccines than it currently has announced, faster than announced, that might be a difficult task. In any case, Malaysia is relatively well-positions in terms of vaccine availability in comparison to many other countries around the world.
Here are the known timelines and contracts (let me know if I have missed anything):
- 12.8 million doses from Pfizer, with the following schedule: 1 million in Q1 2021, 1.7 million in Q2 2021, 5.8 million in Q3 2021, and 4.3 million in Q4 2021.
- 6.4 million doses of Gamaleya, starting from March (no specifics on the size of each batch)
- 12 million doses of Sinovac, starting from April (no specifics on the size of each batch)
- 6.4 million doses from AstraZeneca, starting from the second quarter of 2021 (no specifics on the size of each batch)
- 6.4 million doses from COVAX (no dates or specifics)
TOTAL confirmed up to now: 44 million doses (22 million people, or 68.75% of the population)
- 3.5 million doses from CanSino Biologics, ongoing negotiations (this is a 1-dose vaccine, so it will cover additional 3.5 million people, or 11% of the population)
- Negotiations with Moderna and Johnson & Johnson ongoing
If all of the deals go through, Malaysia will have vaccines sufficient for 80% of its population. The questions remaining are on:
- Schedule of the deliveries;
- Efficacy of some of the vaccines (note that for instance there are some significant concerns with the data released by Gamaleya).
Overall, I am hopeful that what Noor Hisham says is true, but based on the current situation, it seems like a really optimistic prognosis, and this is reflected in the EIU report and expected schedule I shared in the article.
Sources:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-24/southeast-asia-covid-19-vaccine-tracker-who-will-get-what-when
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/22/malaysia-procures-6point4-million-doses-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-malaysia-vaccines/malaysia-secures-184-million-doses-of-russian-chinese-covid-19-vaccines-idUSKBN29V11H
https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/01/26/health-ministry-malaysia-secures-18.4-million-doses-of-russian-chinese-covi/1944232
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/22/malaysia-procures-6point4-million-doses-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine.html
https://codeblue.galencentre.org/2020/12/23/malaysia-reserves-option-to-double-pfizer-vaccine-order/
2021-01-27 23:37 | Report Abuse
Goldberg, thank you very much for sharing this article.
The most interesting thing in it is the following:
"Israel struck a deal with Pfizer (PFE) for future supply of its COVID-19 vaccine in exchange for anonymised data on Israeliās health."
This answers the question many have been having on why Israel has access to such significant quantities of the vaccine so early on.
2021-01-27 23:33 | Report Abuse
emsvsi, thank you for your comment.
Everything in the article is based on referenced sources, so kindly avoid accusations. I edited the article to reflect more precisely the information in case readers do not check the linked sources. Pfizer have tracked down contracts for the delivery of 836 million doses, and Moderna - for 461 million doses according to Bloomberg.
It would be truly incredible for the entire world if the two companies could indeed increase their production capacity, and if they could contract this additional capacity out to as many countries as possible, although even with the numbers you quote the best case scenario would be vaccines sufficient for 1.5 billion people within 2021 (a little less than 20% of the world population).
2021-01-27 23:22 | Report Abuse
icecool, thank you for your comment.
The comment from DickyMe you are quoting is inaccurate. The terminology of COVID-related deaths was specifically changed in order to reflect that the death cases reported are not necessarily caused by COVID itself (they rarely are), but that the deceased has been COVID positive at time of death.
2021-01-27 23:09 | Report Abuse
leeruzi7, darksith, Tobby, thank you for your comments.
leeruzi7, there are a number of experimental medications right now. Let's hope that something scientifically proven will work out, at least for the more severe cases.
Tobby, yes, Israel is ahead of everyone, but no - they have not vaccinated 100% of their population, as you would have learned if you had read the article. Regarding the side effects, it was predictable beforehand that the world will focus on them. However, safety of the vaccines is only a problem as far as intent to vaccinate is concerned. The much bigger and more serious problems are related to the efficacy of the vaccines and the logistics related to their distribution.
2021-01-27 21:37 | Report Abuse
LimitUp, Anthem2, PunTatBerSiul, calvin69, katsul51, Goldberg, thank you for your comments.
Anthem2, I suppose your question is related to the activity regarding Top Glove. I am doing some research right now and I hope to have something posted over the weekend. It is true that these shares have not been bought back.
PunTatBerSiul, unfortunately, as someone whose whole family went through COVID, with serious implications, I must strongly disagree with you. I urge you to not try your luck with the disease.
Goldberg, unfortunately the vaccine is indeed not an all-around solution for the reasons mentioned in the article (and others not mentioned due to lack of time). We still need to follow all of the safety procedures - wearing masks, washing hands as frequently as possible, and keeping our social distance from people outside of our household. Fortunately, the climate of Malaysia allows us to ventilate our homes properly and to potentially go out and breathe fresh air frequently.
2021-01-27 19:41 | Report Abuse
calvin69 and speakup, thank you for your comments.
Note that I am not necessarily saying that anyone needs to sell their Intco shares. Intco might as well be fairly priced. The only thing we know is that there is a huge discrepancy between their valuation and the valuations of the Malaysian glove manufacturers.
2021-01-27 19:20 | Report Abuse
Hi lkoky, thank you for your comment.
Yes, absolutely. My article was more focused on the timeline of the pandemic rather than on what we all need to do, but we certainly will need to wear masks and follow all the other precautions we have been following up to now, even after the vaccine is rolled out. This is the new normal.
2021-01-27 14:01 | Report Abuse
limlaopeh, the average price is the volume weighted average price (VWAP) for all the shares that have been short sold, based on official data provided by Bursa.
The VWAP for the shorted shares for each of the 4 glove counters is:
Top Glove - RM5.73
Hartalega - RM11.12
Kossan - RM4.12
Supermax - RM5.76
2021-01-27 13:36 | Report Abuse
"newkid base on my judgement the short selling operators (Goreng Downward) already profited easily 50 million on penny stocks and 200 million from big 6 gloves stocks !!!!!
Since they have squeezed all retailers in penny stocks into hamyee, they will come back to squeeze the gloves tycoons few more round then go missing again for months ........"
As mentioned multiple times, the short seller of the glove counters is currently sitting on a massive paper loss. The current value of the paper loss (as at noon today) is -RM176 million, and this is excluding any borrowing costs they owe to the lender of the shares.
2021-01-27 12:33 | Report Abuse
Xcatcat, the last data is valid as of Monday. At that time the net outstanding short position stood at 232,408,602 shares, or 2.84% of the company's stock.
Yesterday 7,045,000 more shares were shorted, and up to now today 975,000 more shares were shorted. So assuming that the short seller has not been buying back any shares, the total amount should be 240,428,602, or 2.93% of the company's outstanding stock.
2021-02-07 18:05 | Report Abuse
katsul51, coolinvestor, dumbdumb123, observatory, Sales, calvin69, Marketsifu, wbwanabe, thank you very much for your comments.
observatory, unfortunately I suffer from the great disadvantage of not being able to read Chinese. Google Translate is frequently no help, so I am mostly blind as far as Intco's reports are concerned. I am eagerly waiting for their HK listing so that I could read their reports in English. It will definitely be important to understand how Intco - practically a newcomer in the industry (they were selling PVC gloves only) is able to work at a great return on sales level. It is possible that they get certain incentives/help from the Chinese government for instance, which cannot continue in perpetuity. The bottom line is that labor and fuel, with other things equal, are more expensive to them (in the case of fuel - significantly more expensive). There are only two ways for them to have overcome these challenges:
1) Their level of automation and general technology to be much better than that of the Malaysian players;
2) The government to be subsidizing them in some significant way.
As Hartalega's facilities are broadly regarded as the gold standard for glove production, I doubt it's the first reason.
I completely agree with you that expansion plans will be adjusted in accordance with the corresponding demand. Hence, I don't think further expansion from the big Malaysian players might be merited. My opinion is that Intco are overinflating their numbers in order to attract investors. The way they issue the notes on their expansion plans certainly doesn't sit well with me, and if I were an investor looking at the company, I would be truly wary unless some additional information on how exactly they are planning to achieve this super-expansion is provided.
Marketsifu, thank you for letting us know about the sudden change in trends. Fortunately, this is not the first time that such a change has occurred, and if we judge from the previous few times, it will not end well for the "new" trend. Gambling is gambling, and sooner or later things return to their rightful places.
wbwanabe, I can tell you here, hopefully for the benefit of others as well, although I don't necessarily advise that people follow my strategy. I liquidated all of my other holdings, and I currently hold only glove companies in my stock portfolio. I did that, because I currently see very little upside potential in any other sector. There are bright rays of sunshine here and there, but having in mind the holding period required for them to get materialized, and having in mind that gloves are readily available for investment to any Malaysian investor, it is hard to justify buying anything else right now.