if you were the mgmt and needed to raise funding, wouldnt you push mother to 50 cents so all the expiring warrants can come to life and raise funds instead of PP. The most important thing here is ppl will buy the need to raise funds for Silterra with through warrants or PP. This is not contract manufacturing / engineering works business that our SC define as TECH.

Silterra is actual Tech.

AAX has almost never made money except for 1 year, the past 10 years. Put covid a side. its a failed business model from the start. It only works in Malaysia coz TF has cable to do all the profitable routes, not coz he a super manager or entrepreneur. When he goes overseas, look at what happens everywhere else where its a level playing field. India, Japan etc. I dont think performance of Thailand or Indo is spectacular.

I wont comment on TF 'good reputation' from airbus under-table to screwing AAX shareholders with his 99% haircut while he draws a huge salary.

Why gamble on a company such a poor track record in making money or even repaying their creditors.

Any guidance on current QR ? Apart from the growing orderbook

@sslee that means your supporting Kamala cuz Biden is not even fit to remember what he says and your supporting for 62% tax if you choose to stay in NYC. Madman is likely to win and I wish we had that madman here instead of there.

Thank the madman coz Malaysia is alive and kickin' thanks to trade war

I was expecting a good result actually but a sell down as mostly retailers here who bought for short term and most plan to sell after QR. That's why I sold 2 weeks ago.

Now with this I guess there will be heavy selling.

Actually butadiene prices dont matter at all. I asked the real people in the plastic industry how high prices and demand will benefit LCT previously when we found out that that this was a raw material in the glove industry. Butadiene doesnt even contribute 2% to sales. I guess most people dont know that.

A lot of data you see is just cut and paste, recycled from annual report and selective analysis ( giving you data skewed to the desired conclusion ) without actually knowing anything about their real business and how it works.

And you cant actually compare LCT to PCHEM performance. PCHEM is upstream and does a lot of other chemicals including fertilizers, etc whereas LCT is downstream polymer and monomers. I recall earlier there was someone who kept saying PCHEM is so much better than LCT before the Q2 results.

Anyway, LCT is still a good company but they are no new funds buying now. Need stronger catalyst for that to happen

People who raise profitability as an issue still dont get what is going on the industry after 6 months. Any glove company that was loss making previously when ASPs was USD2 avg will not be loss making when ASPs are now USD7-8.

Efficiency doesnt matter anymore, its about excess capacity that you have.

@wallstreetrookie you are spot on. thats why i always believe that there are people smarter than me in the market, those that make real money consistently. I seriously dont think any funds bought in this round, its mostly retailers.

Ppl who write blogs to promote shares are doing for mostly own benefit so dont blame them coz they obviously have a position. Some of them share with you, but hope you support the share price coz they also have an interest. There are 3-4 ppl who were suddenly promoting LCT the last 1 month, one of which also promoted XOX before.

Secondly, for those who have been in this particular forum long enough, most of the info given the past 1 month was recycled or previously mentioned here so its mostly nothing much new. We knew Q3 would have good I shared this because I consulted my Sifu in the plastic resin business who gave me guidance on pricing / margins etc.

In contrary to what they were telling you, my conclusion of the run up was purely retailers from the 3-4 promoters as if you really analyze the total volume and if you look at the ticket size of the purchases ( from 1k to 10k shares ), you would agree its definitely not funds buying.

So this comes the part whereby why I decided to sell 1-2 weeks ago. If results are super, will most ppl here sell if :-

-limit up
-no limit down
-selling pressure

my conclusion is yes for all the 3 scenarios, so why not exit first as there are limited long term holders and ill will return will all short term holders have left at a lower price.

If some of them has misled you, it could be not because they had intention to deceive you but that perhaps they themselves didnt know.

@soros @kelvin17 i really like this counter. but if anything ive learnt, is to be realistic. my ideal game plan is for funds to buy up thats when we sell. however, i see mostly retailers buying in right now and the mindset will be to sell at announcement of financial result whether its good or not.

I see some ppl have done research on this counter now but i will say not everything is true but i do hope they can report 300-400m this quarter so that there will be a decent dividend or DRS next year.

funds have a sour taste in their mouth due to IPO at 6.5 and current price. they will follow the herd and buy tech and glove sectors instead. This is my analysis of the vol so far.

I was also holding TG previously, and after the good quarter of 1.3b net the share price still took a dive.

I will come back later if price is attractive

Im out from LCT today :) hope u guys continue earning

'James Share Investing' also promoted syndicate stocks like XOX and GPA. Im sure they're a lot more. I dont know why he is here.

ive been trying to collect no volume from 1.78 onwards. very little vol until today

I thought philip was so bullish on PCHEM previously bashing us on LCT saying it was useless company. Look like the tables have turned.

Morpheus Those constantly have seek attention and pleasure in adding salt to ppl wounds is a reflection of what kind of person they are and what kind of person they will become. just ignore them

what a load of crap. just ask them what they are holding now and they will keep quiet. when price up they run away, when it's down they will appear like undead zombies

Just ignore these spammers. They will tell u end of world is coming and they are concern about ppl in the forum

what

Just imagine the kind of margin line the owner will have with his shareholding and the fact that IBs have revised value of glove stocks up

@warn3r this stock is already under syndicate.
@samcck can you cancel conversion once you have submitted ?

For sure it will continue to drop below conversion.Thats the whole idea

Ha ha. Good bullshit story. Owner is gonna try and offload shares today

HWGB does medical ? Since when ? They cant even report a profit on a regular basis and you think they can be tasked to develop a vaccine.

This a signing for fun exercise as why do you even need a MOU when you have nothing on the table.

Its like saying Ill build a glove factory in the near future ( with no details ) but lets appoint some potential distributors now and sign a MOU

If its non-exclusive, why even bother to sign.

DRS is definitely good for the company as it lacks liquidity and most of main shareholders are institutions that have a bad taste in their mouth since IPO earlier was 6.50. With more retailers in, they are also try and fix their public spread issue.

If you need cash, just sell the shares you get under DRS, that should be equivalent to the dividend.

After PCHEM surprisingly bad quarter, those who thought they understood the industry will now shy away and I think only with a good performance in LCT hopefully Q3 then a re-rating of the industry can happen.

For LCT, YTD EPS is still negative so you can imagine how important Q3.

Just think about it. With a crap track record like XOX for not making profits or growing revenue, which big business group is going to want to do any business with them. What value do they have ?They have nothing but an empty shell. Someone told me they are tying up with ANT ( Alibaba financial arm ) which is laughable coz what can XOX put on the table.

Good luck guys

Q3 ending 30 Sept 20 but they will announce 30 days after instead of the norm 60 days so by before end Oct 20 results will be out.

After looking at PCHEM bad results of Q2 RM185M only ( 83% drop in profit ), LCT results are actually not bad.

Like i said, nothing to worry about after that fund decided to exit. You can look at the trading volumes after the fund exited and and there is underlying support and uptrend although i dont look at technical analysis but thats what the data tells me.

Hope you guys didnt cut loss as this will be trending upwards again.

BabyAce, sorry to hear you cut loss. Solely my opinion, maybe you need to hold a bit longer and also this is not a stock with no fundamental where downside is unlimited.

A recent case about 2-3 weeks ago where my friend bought rubberex around 3-4 coz the boss asked him to buy and a few days later it came crashing down and he decided to cut loss. Look at rubberex today.

What I think is after the fund is done selling it will rebound. Already 60m shares past 2 days. Just be patient

I was initially planning to sell some after this quarter and switch some to pchem for another one month until the result then switch back. But look at pchem. It came down a lot too

If market crash tomorrow, you have the comfort that there is limited downside for this counter. I've been thinking to switch some to other counters but apart from gloves and tech, most of it is gambling on the virus recovery and we don't even know if they will continue to make a profit next 2 quarters

We cannot avoid short term fluctuations it happens. If your holding on non borrowed money, it will go back up just be patient.

Judging by the volume, the seller hasn't finished selling and after that hopefully it will recover quick after.

There is nothing wrong with the fundamentals of this company

stockraider haha ok. i thought i was stepping on your tail. Later kena kacau from you until koyak like rest in the other forums

stockraider you welcome criticize me lor. but please give me more factual statements that just u dont like what i wrote.

Then i should ask u why Lotte Chem Korea today still can survive as top 30 worldwide or why isnt the world only left with top 5 players in every industry. Then we see who the sohai is lor

Why dont you tell us why Petronas can survive when there Exxon, Mobil and Shell.

And finally back to the part that concerns most of us here i.e. LCT share price. If you look at the volume on the last trading day afternoon session, was it due to negative politic news, a really bad QR or perhaps one particular fund that decided to exit ? If you look at LCT top 30 shareholders and understand the fact that Lotte Korea holds 70% and they are already under-fire for compliance of shareholders spread how it is possible that retailers could generate this kind of volume.

It also means that another fund had increase their stake as the market cannot absorb so much selling down otherwise. It was 5% shares total active shares traded on that day as if you take 2.308b shares x 30% ( as Lotte Korea will not be trading so i take only the remaining 30% of tradable shares ) u get about 692m shares. 40m shares were traded on last trading day.

The only relationship between LCT and the vaccine is the premise that the cure could help to spur back global demand and consumption that would lead to a hope that oil prices can increase back to pre covid level of 65 USD .This would affect LCT as raw materials such as ethane and naptha which is a derivative of oil, would increase.

This is solely my view but looking at how most of the oil majors like Shell, Exxon and Mobil have reported bad financials this last week and took a huge beating on their share prices, I dont see oil prices jumping back so quickly and even if the cure is out today, it would take 3 -6 mths for businesses and demand to slowly adjust back to pre crisis levels. And then of course you have the unfortunate casualties of the pandemic where some businesses that close might not re-open anymore. That will obviously affect global consumption.

This is of course only part of the equation with the assumption that LCT is not able to increase cost of production to end users. To understand whether they can pass on costs to buyer you have to look at the demand for LCT polymer and monomer products which is actually very broad based. Its true, LCT products are used for masks, gloves, etc but the ultimate contribution by these sectors are not big because they do a lot of products, and they sell to a lot of different industries.

This is also a good thing to me that they are affected more by overall global demand / consumption rather than just 1 or 2 particular sectors. Then again, you have to look at supply of petrochemical plants and those are active. When some go offline for maintenance, like what LCT did in Mar / Apr 20, supply will be cut and prices can higher higher.

As for your second question, i actually answered it earlier with my explanation on operating cashflow improving from -28M in Q1 to RM195M in Q2 which is the real cash profit indicator. The reported profit is just accounting profit and you can say that in Q1 LCT decided to make a bigger than required write down on inventory, and now in Q2 they are writing some of it back. This is all non cash anyway so if you look at cashflows, they did reasonably well. I tried to explained that 1h2019 their cumulative operating cashflow was about RM490M which lets say we then use this as baseline as say its RM245M per quarter. For Q2 2020 cumulative, LCT generated RM223M ( from 195m + 28M ) so not far off

The financials can be a bit confusing coz in some places they use QoQ, some use Cumulative to and Cumulative half year

Lets just look at it objectively. They reported pre-tax profit of RM109M for Q2 2020 in COVID environment which is approx 20% down from 2Q2019 of RM138M. How can this is be bad result when 70-80% of all the companies on BURSA are reporting worst declines or worst still, losses.

Instead of looking at the movement of the non cash items like reversal on impairment on stocks, etc, I instead I look at the cashflow from operations, which looks healthy at Q2 even at cumulative level ie from -Rm28m operating loss to operating profit cumulative of RM195M. Meaning this quarter alone is around RM223M which is around average per quarter if you look 2019 as baseline.

At this price, your paying 30 cents for the whole business since net cash per share is around 1.71 and this is actually a very good business to be in, just that its cyclical. Some might argue, but there are 2 players in Malaysia and they dont necessarily produce identical products like-for-like anyway and LCT performance also includes performance of offshore subsidiaries. If you view LCT being overvalued, please share with rest of us what is of better value instead of just making a general statement.

As an investor, we shouldnt be worried about what short term spikes. Remember approx 90% of retailers lose money whereas only 10% actually make consistently. If following the herd chasing shares up and down hasnt work, maybe you need a new strategy

Do we have earnings visibility for LCT ? Naptha spreads to selling prices are still very healthy so not only do i think Q3 will be superb but probably Q4. On the expansion, for Lotte Chem Korea to invest 16B into their Indonesia plant they must have done their due diligence and obviously the financing bank will look at the project viability before they do part of the financing. So to those that think this is a lousy business, i guess Lotte Korea is only willing to bet 16b on it. How much are you betting your future ?

Except for Glove, Tech and Food, which other sector can you say with confidence that there will be stable future earnings. Most other sectors everyone is holding is on a silly promise that recovery will come soon but as to when no one has even a clue.

My take is an overreaction and obviously some fund decided to exit hence the volume. Notice how the volume spiked after lunch, doesn't look like retailers selling and anyway there are not enough retailers here for this volume

It's not a good QR and but it's not a bad QR.

I was hoping for a higher profit though. Plastic ppl tell me that the huge margin is from mid May onwards so Q3 will definitely be very good but I was hoping that q2 it could hit something like 200m, then q3 would have a better chance of hitting 400m level which is post IPO level

Babyace I gave you a like on your post

Should be end of day. So next working day only market will react

Im forecasting 150m on the basis on that was their avg profit from previous quarters before Q1. Also, margin improved in Q2 so technically should be higher. We just have to Q3 which will good for sure.

I just curious so they got distribution rights for the vaccine. But how many cases do they have in Malaysia now? Is everyone going to take the vaccination jabs for prevention ? How many people actually take the updated flu jabs every year?

We dont even know when the vaccine will be out. It could be another 2 years. And what is Dphama and Pharma doing ? 'Fill and Finish' process sound like a nice way of say bottling or packaging which you dont expect their margins to be high for this simple job.

What LCT supplie is Butadiene which i dont think PCHEM produces at the moment. This is one of the main raw materials for Gloves.

https://theglovecompany.com.au/hands-on-safety-blog/2018/nitrile-gloves-frequently-asked-questions-and-answers-faqs/

When my overseas friends ask me what it mean to be Malaysian? It means we have to accept we have the biggest crooks and we clear all of the them. Including No1 whom Im sure will be cleared. What a wayang kulit for the past 2 years when we know he wont be going to jail.

Anyway I dont want to comment anymore here. I just wanted to share another viewpoint. If AA is for you, best of luck.

@Mabel

Lets just be objective. If it was truly for branding and promotional activities, you wouldnt advertise with a lousy team that the crook owns, you would advertise with the best and see what other options to get value for dollar spent. Its a related party transaction unless you choose not to see it that way. If its was truly for this purpose, i would propose give the saving to AA, let AA decide how they want to spend this 400-500m on Advertising, Promotion and Branding and put it on their books.

I said this earlier in my post, Airbus confirmed the bribe, MACC cleared the crook.

Yes, I saw geary post. My view is that posts like this might not really mean much. Who is the reviewer, does his have any pull ? Was he paid to do this review ? It is was reported by a big news network then it would be something else.

Best budget airline doesnt have this kind of management. Most of the overseas passengers are probably on AAX, which has died from day 1 of IPO.

So you prefer good reviews from backpackers and bad financial performance for shareholders or the other way ? I dont know but i dont recall AAX ever making a profit since its listing. I have a friend who kept telling me to buy and he averaged all the way down from IPO to about 20 cents.

Posted by Mabel > Jul 12, 2020 10:31 AM | Report Abuse

Meow BornToSpeculate ...

As an Investor, I would like to see what are the actions taken by the company...

Yes, I agree the cost savings from the airbus deal for AA shareholders would have been great to add on the list of action taken. From what I read the deal is to cover promotion and marketing expenses to promote AA as a Global Brand. Based on what geary posted last night it's working.

@geary BY DAVE BRETT

5 Reasons why Airasia are the best budget airline in the world.

Budget airlines often come along with no frills, for the low price you pay, all you expect is to get from A to B as safely as possible. After my experience of flying with budget airlines around Europe and North America and Oceania I was shocked when I first discovered Airaisa on my backpacking trip around South East Asia.

Here are my 5 reasons why I think Airasia is the best budget airline in the world:
https://traveldave.co.uk/why-airasia-is-the-best-budget-airline/
11/07/2020 6:11 PM

As for Crook, the board has cleared them. Beside, it's not my call to judge as I don't have all the facts. Let's leave this to the relevant authority to take action upon them if it warrants..

I hear what you are saying on your last point. However, I always believe what the great Confucius used to say..." A journey of a thousand miles, begins with a single step..."

Meow..

I think the most important question is what was the previous RPS used to finance / invest. They have some good investments like Inari, but i think they have some bad ones too.

@Mabel

All that its just management lip service. 2Q costs reduced but this is not due to good management, its due to COVID whereby every company is cutting staff salary, cost cutting and scaling back on operations. So you wanna give them a pat on the back for this

Good management would be to get the cost savings from the airbus deal for AA shareholders instead of going to the crook whos been milking the company. Thats why AA from a shareholder funds of 6.6b in 2018, is down to only 1b and u guys now have to go for a rights issue.

With this, share price should only tank as even the crook might sell some and buy back later and subscribe at super discounted price. However, i hear that he has some existing loan arrangements with a floor on AA share price, so he cant let it crash too.

I dont have the data on fares. But as flights resume, fares will only drop. During MCO a flight to Kuching might have costs 200-300% the normal fare and now that has normalized. You just do the math, worldwide most countries are trying to save their national airlines and what that means is you have excess capacity ( scenario before COVID ) and now a big drop in passenger demand as ppl avoid travelling for at least the next 1 year, what you think will happen to air fares.

Dont forget AA was doing promo on free tickets or something like that a month ago so dont take their ticket booking as indicator of recovering demand / profitability.

Posted by Mabel > Jul 11, 2020 11:16 PM | Report Abuse

@koowakzai Next qr will eat into their nta. Further reducing the nta. Cash call soon. Wait till 0.50 only enter. The worst is yet to come.
11/07/2020 11:09 PM

Sure..unless if they implement Right Issues. Please scroll up what I have shared earlier.

Fares is actually rising and flights resumed in most countries. AAGB is actively managing costs. As at 31 Mar 2020, it has a MYR1.6b cash balance. Through a combination of debt and equity financing, it expects to ‘outlive’ the COVID-19 pandemic. Positively, it also stated that average fares have been rising (1Q20: +8% YoY) as the COVID-19 pandemic has caused airlines to cut capacity and competition. As of today, AAGB has resumed flights in five of the six countries it operates in. Japan will resume flights in Aug 2020.

In 2Q20, 60% of fixed costs have been reduced. For FY20, AAGB hopes to halve cash expenses YoY. Here are some of action which is under progress

1. AAGB targets to reduce CASK from 3.80 US cents in FY19 to 3.60-3.70 US cents by FY21.
2. As at 6 Jul 2020, 70% of its Brent fuel hedging contracts have been restructured. The FY20 average Brent hedge price is USD61.41/bbl.
3. AAGB expects to record more losses on settlement of fuel hedges in 2Q20 but does not expect to record as much in 3Q20 and 4Q20.
4 Other measure to preserve liquidity in FY20 are to:-
a) Defer operating lease and maintenance payments - AAGB may return 38 aircraft in the next 3 years. It is also exploring lease rates based on utilisation rather than a fixed lease rate per month or year.
b) Get customers to accept credit shells instead of cash refunds – 80% of customers have opted for credit shells.
c) Delay taking delivery of new aircraft – In fact, AAGB is cajoling Airbus to refund some of its aircraft purchase deposits.
d) Rollover working capital loans
e) Review pilots’ allowances
f) Institute pay cuts across the board including that of directors
g) Seek debt, equity and hybrid financing
f) Encourage associates to seek their own financing
g) Get fuel vendors to refund prepayments
h) Renegotiate IT and maintenance contracts

Meow..

Jolly can share the KAF report link here thanks

When you look at the financials, you'll realize how incompetent this management is. In FY2018, declared almost 100% of their profits out as dividend ie paid out 1,7b out, in FY2019 they reported a loss of 550m but paid out a dividend of 3.4b. I still recall everyone was singing praises about AA then for this super dividend but no 1 really asked if this was sustainable or right thing to do.

TF really wants to the milk the company. Taking Airbus bribes wasnt enough. Now the company only 1.6b cash left and networth is only 1.1b. Their liabiilities are only 24b, no wonder auditor raised this concern. One more big quarter loss and the company will be negative networth

Now the crook tell us AA is still viable coz after he milked the company, he wants you to subscribe for his rights issue. End of the day, he bought the AA for RM1 through cable and he has milked it enough, if it dies tomorrow only shareholders suffer. This is kind of scum that we should throw in jail for mismanagement and integrity.

AA is only successful in short haul mainly due to cable ie by taking all the profitable routes that MAS has, they dont do not profitable routes. TY is a true Malaysian businessman thats needs cable to do business thats why AAX which is on a level playing field internationally is dead from day 1

If he was a steady at all, he would loan or advance some of that bribed money from airbus and the dividends he took to Airasia to show his support for the company and putting his money where his mouth is. If he does that, im sure market will look at it positively.

Good luck to you guys

I too have old stock so I hope this recovers to pre-PH govt levels :-(

I hope DNEX gets it but lets be realistic too. Experienced never mattered. Its all about bribes and cable for who gets the job. I heard IRIS has a strong cable despite what most ppl think of new shareholder.

MyEG has tons of rosmah cash to throw too and im sure they will continue throwing.

If DNEX doesnt get it, profitability might be at about this level for a while. I hear ppl say that DNEX portal is good but i dont see it churning out a lot of profit or increase profits past 2 years.