Thank you, Fam Jenny for giving moral support to everybody in this forum.
Appreciate that, thank you.

You push up one ka?


@kahsoon888 Ppl fear I greedy

We are all defending our own interest in this forum.
Including naysayers who want to buy HY share at cuttroat price.
As what I said, I don't create fear to profit from other.

Most people here bought HY share at price which Mr Market want to sell and we think it is a good bargain.
Same like you go to supermarket and see a 50% discount banner.

What is your agenda to come here everyday if you don't have intention to profit from HY share?

@hollandking

Not sure exactly why Q4 expense so high.
My wild speculation is HY paid good bonus to employees.
Let see what will happen in Q1, 2018.
Perhaps someone who has friend who work in HY can enlighten us.

@Lee

My agenda here is to make money.
But I don't create fear so that I can buy cheap.
If you think Q1 profit will be lower. OK.
You already made your point.
Please don't continue emphasize it because other don't want to follow you, some more using the name of Tua Pek Kong or Paul which is baseless.
You maybe right about Q1 result, maybe wrong.
Even Warren Buffett cannot predict 100%
If you think the price should be lower, please wait till the moment to come.
My agenda is not to create fear so that I can profit from it.

@CharlesT

So finally you admitted your agenda.
You can just wait till the moment come.
If you have valuable info, welcome to share.
Else please don't bullshit using Paul The Great.

@CharlesT

Welcome, CharlesT.
Please hentam till RM4.
That's your entry TP right?
All people in this forum have their agenda behind.
Else they won't spend time in this forum.
Look at previous few naysayers.
They disappeared when HY crashed to 8.
Because 8 is their entry TP.

Frankly speaking, I never hear people never lose money in investment.
Even Warran Buffett.
Tesco was a very good example.
If you never lose money before, you already a billionaire.
Definitely, you won't waste time in this forum.
You may follow "Jho Low hidup mewah di Shanghai".

@trulyinvest

Many years ago there was no economical technology to harvest shale oil.
US improved the technology few years ago, when the crude price was peak.
That's why US can increase the shale oil output now.
The game is changing.
I don't think crude price will peak again in the very short term.

@coffeecup I would refrained myself to predict the price of Oil for more than 3 months.

We have seen so many mistakes in the past. Who would thought oil price and drop from 115 to around 27 in less than 2 years. In a year time, it also more than double up from the bottom.

Oil price can be affected by natural disaster, war and economy. The good thing with refinery business is they are in between. Short term they may be affected but as price is stabilised, the FIFO should protect them.

18/03/2018 00:18

Shareholder information from morningstar is not updated daily. It took few weeks before changes showed up.

Lee, take your time. No worry. HY is not a bad Investment. Else why foreign fund manager still top up their share?

My think Donald Trump will not include furniture in the trade war. He is targeting commodities which are identical. Example, steel made in US is same with steel made in China. If one day he is targeting imported car, then the game is changed.

But I think HY profit margin per barrel was less in Q4, if I am not mistaken.

9 USD per barrel is the estimated profit margin per barrel.
Hy revenue is including the purchasing cost of the crude brent oil.

Hy daily output is less than 156kpd.

@Lee Yin Yeong

Coffeecup, where you found the news that three funds joined the party?
Mind to share the source? Tq.

'Con you in' baru betul.

Waikiki

@dompeilee

I had been calculating the crack spread for the past few months.
I found that on average HY actual profit margin per barrel was lower than the calculated crack spread.
Perhaps, something missing in the calculation.
Last quarter, the error was 20%.


Furthermore, last quarter, the crude price, mogas 95 and gasoil are going up.
The question is why no inventory gain reported last quarter.

Any thoughts?

@
probability aiyo charles...dont change topic lah....reason i dont touch crack spread is because Mogas 95 crack spread (unlike mogas92) and Diesel crack spread is not easily presentable to forumers...

16/03/2018 21:27

Hengyuanisred, welcome to the club.
Perhaps you should change name to Hengyuanisgreen.
But please don't do that again.

How many newbies have to lose money due to panic that you created?

Hy everyday top. Either top loser or top gainer.
Share split is a must.

Kikiki.

How to react?

Kikikiki.

Aiyo. Dato Kim. Push up to 15 baru cut win la.
Dua tiga kupang tak siok la.

Kikiki

Aiyo. Uncle Dragon.
Support support la sikit.
Don't alway kutuk kutuk saya.

Kikiki.

Foreign institution still buying what.
Will they do so if HY so bad?

Aiyo. Don't argue la.
Tomolo got 2 cent div.
Can buy chatlo star buck coffee.

Kikiki.

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-concentrated.html?t=4324&region=mys&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA

Russell Investments Limited 02/28/2018

Gov subsidies does not affect refinery profit.
Please don't come here and mislead people.

USD depreciated.
Liihen and other company which earning in USD will be affected.

@Pgraduate

Cun bo? @FaizalAziz79

Kikiki.

Euro4m is just a requirement to protect environment. That's it. High sulfur will cause acid rain.

Petronas already comply to Euro 4m in 2015.

I never said HY will maintain RM1.20 eps.
The analysis said HY earning is affected by USDMYR drop, gov tax and perhaps employee bonus.
Thus, HY earning will drop.
If you saw my previous post, I did said HY projected eps should be RM0.60 only.

@stockraider.

Dumb dumb hold.
Kikikiki.

Below are the analysis on Q3 and Q4 report.

1)
HY crude oil purchase on Q4 was RM2,735,328,000, USDMYR 4.06 (average).
While crude oil on average was USD60.
Approximately, HY was importing 11228768 barrels of crude oil (2735328000 / 4.06 / 60).
Q4 gross profit was RM356,777,000.
Approximately, profit per barrel was RM31.77 or USD7.825 (31.77 / 4.06).
The average profit per barrel was close to calculated crack spread of USD10.

2)
HY crude oil purchase on Q3 was RM2,533,103,000, USDMYR4.23 (average).
While crude oil on average was USD53.
Approximately, HY was importing 11298911 barrels of crude oil (2533103000 / 4.23 / 53).
HY stockholding gain was USD2.64 per barrel.
Approximately, total additional gain due to stockholding gain was RM126,177,199 (11298911 * 4.23 * 2.64).
While, HY gross profit in Q3 was RM428,721,000.
Take out the stockholding gain, HY gross profit was RM302,543,801.
Close to Q4 actually.
Approximately, profit per barrel was RM37.94 or USD8.969 (37.94 / 4.23).

Thus, HY profit was actually affected by USDMYR dropped, gov tax and perhaps good employee bonus (can see higher expense on the report).

I think this analysis should clear the doubt on crack spread and HY future earning.

Ok. New mymymy.

Ok.mymymy.

My personal opinion, US shale oil output ramp up will offset output cut by OPEC. This will help controlling the crude brent price to a healthier level, which is good for refinery. Any comment from the floor?

Mymymy, please rethink the time you made noise in this forum.
I don't think that is a noble act. Curse it to crash so that you can buy low.
Please rethink, money or integrity. Which more important in your life?

Diversify is important.
Don't put all egg in one bucket.
This is what I learn from past experience.
Not only in share market, in daily life also.

Aiyo. Good morning, uncle Dragon.
I am newbie in this forum.
May I know who is ultimate warrior?

Aiyo. Why so angry?
Nanti kena stroke.
Aiyoyo.
Kikiki.

Dumb dumb hold.......
Dumb dumb hold.......
Dumb dumb hold.......

Kikiki.

Aiyo. plsGiveBonus.
Can you go other place to play ar?
Kikiki.

HY retained profit is 1,619,660,000 which is equal to RM5.40 per share.
Now already near the quarter end.
If HY earn RM0.60 like last quarter, total retained profit will be RM6.00.
Only innocent investor will sell at RM6.00.

You need to do homework.
Then, you will know who can be trusted.

@Halite this forum already turn into pasar malam
can not differentiate who are liers who are not liers now

08/03/2018 11:20

If one day HY is cash rich, debt free, profitable, yet kedekut. Can the parent company profit from it?

@bluebiznet

Look at mogas 95. Malaysia use Ron 95.

@VincentTang

Yalo. This is a cruel world. Unfortunately.
But this create opportunity for you to stock in at lower price.
I stock in some already.

@SuperPanda before buy, hantam like hell. after buy suddenly become promoter.. this kind of people talk with his feet.

wah. suddenly all so bullish. Hahaha.

Aiyo. Cina kedekut.
Can buy ar???
Hahahaha

@dragonslayer aiyo...gogogogo...this is the time to revenge...aiyoyo...kikiki