Dear Publicinvest,

Your effort to provide coverage on Jaks is highly appreciated.

I m sure you also realise that Jaks' future lies on its Vietnam IPP.

Since you are able to meet up with the management, it would add great value to your research report if you can provide more information on the power purchase agreement and the potential earnings from the Vietnam IPP.

Thank you.

Give a thought on both sides of PP.

Negative - Dilution on shareholdings and earnings

Positive - Vote of confidence by Institutional buyers and fund managers

To get RM54m from PP, Jaks has to maintain the price above RM0.80. Otherwise, can't get enough for its objectives.

The SOP valuation calculation has been removed from publicinvest research report on jaks

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2019/04/19/1510636063-81959248.pdf

For those who are worried abt the pp, the market is kind enough to let you sell out at 0.80.

Jaks has done the previous 2 PPs above RM1.35. This one will easily be taken up.

My advice to those who are truly interested in Jaks to do some serious research. Lots of information can easily be found on the internet. Simply just shoot down on the vietnam IPP based on logic like "if so good, why KKY sold?", "Vietnam will give so good return meh?", etc, will do you (and only you) no good.

Respect is earned through sharing whether in wealth, ideas, knowledge or information, not through telling people how successful you are, how smart you are, and how much you know.

They don't have the money

------------------------
Dickyyou Vietnamese really stupid. If Jaks IPP a goldmine why not they own 100%? They don't have own Tenaga in Vietnam?
19/04/2019 8:28 AM

This PP is a test of confidence in Jaks. A successful PP will be a vote of confidence though it will have a 10% dilution effect on shareholdings. However, an unsuccessful PP at current price will be a lost of confidence.

Philips, thank you for sharing this idea. I will bear that in mind.

But i and everyone here really hope that you could share the information you have gathered from the CFO.

If it is really bad, it would save us from great losses. But sharing of X.XX per Kwh is keeping us in suspense. I m sure you wouldn't want anyone to take your words blindly.

I m asking this from you out of respect and believe.

Really appreciate.

--------------------------

(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip dK66, if you will listen to a tired old man, and find the allure of making 160% in warrants in a few short months, or tripling your money in a year, I recommend you reading this. I hope it helps you in your investing journey.

>>>>>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp

"Thus far, the project has secured c.USD1001m in funding with USD859m remaining to be sourced." - Are you saying I wrongly criticised this statement by publicinvest as incorrect. ?

From the record , you can see that I have accepted CFO earning projection of RM150m annually

How could I disagree with the CEO when he hasn't said anything yet.

"3. The figures brought up by people who have been to Vietnam, seen the location, spoken directly to the management seems overly conservative so they must be inaccurate? " - specifically, what have they said about the vietnam IPP ? Please quote, so that i m able to response.

I can't tell you what I know about the PPA agreement as I don't want to say anything that I can't substantiate. It would be irresponsible.

Finally, there is no point denying that share dilution is never a good thing to minority shareholders. However, some dilutions are inevitable. You have to live with it and take it from a bigger perspective. Not everything is perfect. You don't throw away a piece of white paper just because it has a black dot on it.

Believe me, I meant no harm. I wish for no harm caused by me.

Anyway, thanks for your opinion.


--------------------------------------------------
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip You already have a biased remark as an investor with this statement. As you already think it is a lifetime opportunity and nothing anyone can say will sway you. That is good. Confidence is to be commended.

But let me bring you to mind what Mr Lee has remarked especially in the qualitative side ( as you only concentrate on quantitative analysis)

1. Do you know what is in the PPA agreement or is it an assumption based on a woman is fat so you don't need to know how much she weighs.
2. The returns, actions taken and the figures given by CFO, public bank analysts, CEO does not jive with what you believe is happening, so they must be wrong and you must be right?
3. The figures brought up by people who have been to Vietnam, seen the location, spoken directly to the management seems overly conservative so they must be inaccurate?

I do hope you do well, as I'm sure you have already made money averaging down your investments.

But I do feel the not knowing and knowing part can be hubris.

Especially now you know why I was reluctant to speak further about my conversation with Steven and the private placements that came just a few weeks after my discussion( and his share sales).

Now that the cat is out of the bag, I leave it up to you to consider if share dilution is a good thing or a bad thing.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/jaks-seeks-more-funds-placement-vietnam-jv-after-rights-issue-met-tepid-response

Philip, truly thank you for your advice.

Buying great companies is undeniably right. Who can argue otherwise ?

But I think there is another very important factor which is above all else. That is, know what you buying. This applies to great companies too.

Those who knew the Q4 2018 results sold before the news, it turned out to be a mistake. CFO knew about this private placement, so he sold ? maybe or maybe not. Anyway, that is not the most relevant issue in investing in Jaks.

For Jaks, the most important thing is how much do you know about the power plant's future earnings capability. Those who do not know will think investing in Jaks is a speculation. However, for those who know, is a lifetime opportunity.

Therefore, it is not the judgement of others that matter, it is yours that counts. You yourself surely knows how much you know and that is enough.

I m only here to share what i know and also hoping to get information from others.

I only shared those information that I can substantiate so as not to attract criticism.

I need to know enough to make my decision, so do you.

We are here to share and discuss information, not to force oneself onto others.

Thank you

A - Warrant rights fully taken up and no private placement now - Dilution approx 50%

B - Warrant rights under subscribed 62.5% and 10% private placement now - dilution approx 27%

According to the management, the private placement is to make up for the shortfall in proceeds from warrant rights.

So, I have one interesting question. Which do you prefer (A) or (B) ?

A - Warrant rights fully taken up and no private placement now

B - Warrant rights under subscribed 62.5% and 10% private placement now

Newbie8080,
So, face to face with management can not be wrong ??
Then, what is the clarification for ?

Sslee Dear all,
For your information:

dari: PIVB HO Trading Department <pivbhelpdesk@publicinvestbank.com.my>
kepada: Lee Soon Sheng
cc: pivbhelpdesk@publicinvestbank.com.my
tanggal: 17 Apr 2019 15.45
subjek: Re: JAKS Resources Berhad - All Eyes On Vietnam Power Plant
dikirim oleh: publicinvestbank.com.my

Dear Lee

Refer to your query on Jacks, enclosed is the clarification from our
Research Department:

The power plant is capitalized at USD1.001bn at as Dec 2018. Bank
borrowing remaining to be injected is USD644m while equity portion is
USD123m (CPECC) and JAKS (USD92m).

Hope this helps to clarify.

Regards
Helpdesk
17/04/2019 6:20 PM
-----------------------------------------------
newbie8080 @ Icon8888

Firstly, I don't really like these analysts from IBs as well.
But DK66 and yourself are saying they are wrong in their analysis and valuation.
Do you know these group of analysts from Public Invest went to meet with their management people.

So what I gather from DK66 and you is, YOUR info and God level analysis from the media and 3rd party sources are more accurate than the interview done face to face by Public Invest team which comprise of fund managers, research analyst,etc with Jaks Resources management people(probably include ALP).

Maybe you should take a step back and think over it.
I'm not here to trigger an argument.
Don't you think your pride is getting ahead of everything.

I give chance until market closes at 5 pm

----------------------------
Travestor Ehhhh optimus, you're not doing a good job lo....price keep going up wor...quickly talk it down...like u I wanna buy low (giggles)

Ok, lets be quiet today to give him a chance to talk down the price. good luck.

Thanks to Mr Sslee for getting the clarification.

The power plant is capitalized at USD1.001bn at as Dec 2018. Bank
borrowing remaining to be injected is USD644m while equity portion is
USD123m (CPECC) and JAKS (USD92m).

I assume this is referring to JHDP's books. This shows that 53.8% of project payment has been made til Dec 2018.

There are more revelations from this information ........... let me digest and put it in proper perspective. Please wait.

Sslee,

Thank you for seeking clarification.

Michaelwong, Thank you

michaelwong Chart and IB is for personal references. There's is no absolute amount of accuracy to justify chart and IB recommendations . Certain IB with vested interest may set higher TP to certain stocks in their investment holdings with opportunity to offload their shares in bulk . As investors, to dispute your claims to hurt others from sharings the hectic indulgence and compilation of good quality tips should be applauded with thnks ! DK66 have contributed much with his efforts in sharings his ideas to counter adversed perceptions that in return to help everyone in jaks share contributors to have a wider knowledge of its future turned around . I definitely give him a like in this forum.

"Hai Duong IPP - FCFE at 12% equity cost, Jaks 30% = RM329m = EPS 0.52" - Publicinvest

Jaks is investing at least an equity capital of RM540m NOW, but the value of its investment is only RM329M now. A loss at inception of investment of RM 211m.!

After getting the SOP, cut 50% again ! So, IPP only worth 26 Cents !!

What kind of investment decision is this ??

Dear Sslee,

I m puzzled ????

This seems to mean that you approve the giving of wrong analysis and information or the act of manipulators or even the bosses ?

So what if we can buy cheap ???

Are you ok if insas does not declare dividend ?

I m surprised. I thought you are one that pushes for rightness.

I stand by what is right.

---------------------------------------
Sslee Dear all,
If you are long term investors, you will surely welcome KYY’s margin call force selling or any negative IB report (50% discount?? why not 80% discount) so that you have the chance to collect more at cheaper cost to you.
So what the fuss? unless you are a chicken’s trader, a hit and run type of small time traders.

Thank you
P/S: I am still waiting for i3lurker to throw INSAS at 50 cents for me to collect.

Kenanga Vs publicinvest. Who do you believe ?

"Hai Duong IPP - FCFE at 12% equity cost, Jaks 30% = RM329m = EPS 0.52" - Publicinvest

Jaks is investing at least an equity capital of RM540m NOW, but the value of its investment is only RM329M now. A loss at inception of investment of RM 211m.!

After getting the SOP, cut 50% again ! So, IPP only worth 26 Cents !!

What kind of investment decision is this ??

"Hai Duong IPP - FCFE at 12% equity cost, Jaks 30% = RM329m = EPS 0.52" - Publicinvest

Jaks is investing at least an equity capital of RM540m NOW, but the value of its investment is only RM329M now. A loss at inception of investment of RM 211m.!

What kind of investment decision is this ??

----------------------------------------------------
qqq3
according to PB, the power plant only adds 50 sen per share to the value of jaks...........

believe or not?

me?

I think PB is not qualified to call themselves analysts..........

"The stocks’ recent price run has surpassed our earlier fair value ascribed which suggested a TP of RM0.65, derived from c.60% discount to our earlier SOTP estimates. All told, we maintain our Neutral but reduce our discount from 60% to 50% to our revised SOTP of RM1.50 given recent sector re-rating on revival of certain mega projects, yielding a new target price of RM0.75." - Publicinvest

Upgrade because the market price has overshot its TP ?
Why reducing discount by 10% ?
What has revival of certain mega projects in malaysia got to do with Jaks ? jaks' project is in Vietnam and was never halted.

Anyway, I think the analyst already had a hard time. Can't get the right information from the management.

"The stocks’ recent price run has surpassed our earlier fair value ascribed which suggested a TP of RM0.65, derived from c.60% discount to our earlier SOTP estimates. All told, we maintain our Neutral but reduce our discount from 60% to 50% to our revised SOTP of RM1.50 given recent sector re-rating on revival of certain mega projects, yielding a new target price of RM0.75." - Publicinvest

Upgrade because the market price has overshot its TP ?
Why reducing discount by 10% ?
What has revival of certain mega projects in malaysia got to do with Jaks ? jaks' project is in Vietnam and was never halted.

Anyway, I think the analyst already had a hard time. Can't get the right information from the management.

Vietnam government will not finalise the BOT contract without proper financing in place.

Very irresponsible writing for a company of its status

In addition, Jaks Hai Duong Power Company Limited (“JHDP”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of JRB, had on 29 October 2015 informed the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (“MOIT”) vide a letter dated 28 October 2015, that JHDP had achieved the Financial Close of the BOT Contract, subject to amongst others, the registration of the shareholder loan agreement between China Power Engineering Consulting Group (Hong Kong) Investment Co., Limited and JHDP dated 19 September 2015 with State Bank of Vietnam and the issuance of legal opinion by the Ministry of Justice of Vietnam.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcem...

"that JHDP had achieved the Financial Close of the BOT Contract"

Already secured financing !

"Thus far, the project has secured c.USD1001m in funding with USD859m remaining to be sourced."

This is ridiculous ! Please do research properly

In addition, Jaks Hai Duong Power Company Limited (“JHDP”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of JRB, had on 29 October 2015 informed the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (“MOIT”) vide a letter dated 28 October 2015, that JHDP had achieved the Financial Close of the BOT Contract, subject to amongst others, the registration of the shareholder loan agreement between China Power Engineering Consulting Group (Hong Kong) Investment Co., Limited and JHDP dated 19 September 2015 with State Bank of Vietnam and the issuance of legal opinion by the Ministry of Justice of Vietnam.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4907165

"that JHDP had achieved the Financial Close of the BOT Contract"

Already secured financing !

"Power plant at 46% completion. We understand that as at Jan 2019, the power plant has achieved 46% project completion, with significant billings expected in FY19. Management is confident of completing the power plant on schedule and likely to achieve commercial operation date in 1H2020. Key milestones to complete in 2019 are the completion of main plant’s boiler, turbine & generator and other ancillary buildings such as jetty and administration building. Outstanding orderbook from the EPC contract 2 is c.RM1.2bn as at December 2018 or c.70% of the outstanding orderbook of RM1.7bn. Thus far, the project has secured c.USD1001m in funding with USD859m remaining to be sourced." - Publicinvest

"Thus far, the project has secured c.USD1001m in funding with USD859m remaining to be sourced" - Publicinvest is not aware of the financing for the project ????? What kind of research report is this ????

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PublicInvest/202716.jsp

Since the management has been quite proactive in giving out information after the Q3 2018 results. I would expect them to do the same in AGM.

----------------------------------------
qqq3 AGMs............got to understand.....

no need ask questions one.......

Just see how they dress ( their presentations) , can decide already.....

I believe the capacity charge accounts for the 12% IRR required by the Investor as it is definite and guaranteed.

12% IRR is the maximum allowed by vietnam under BOT contract

Therefore, operators seek additional returns from the energy charge

As can be seen from the Matrix for Energy Charge that potential earnings upside depends on the efficiency of the plant as well as the level of electricity output

Around 90% top
---------------------
SarifahSelinder Minimum 77% how high can the plant go? 100%?
17/04/2019 8:33 AM

Dear Sslee,

Thank you for your effort.

I can see your strong interest in looking for answers to clear your doubts in Jaks.

EVN only take the output at delivery point. You have to deduct the ancillary power consumption

No, dependable capacity only 556,000 Kw per unit

1112000x24x365x77%

Sarifah, 7.5b kWh is based on 77% plant load factor

Any comment, icon8888, kcchongnz ?

Anyone with alternative views ? Mr Sslee, Philip or any sifu ?

Enough to hit my initial target

---------------------------
SarifahSelinder RM 150m is too low

I wonder how many would agree with me on my Matrix ......

Therefore, if the profit forecast by kenanga of RM150m annually for 25 years is "as good as it is", how much is Jaks worth ?

-----------------
DK66 I have demonstrated in my article "Jaks Resources - The Matrix Behind The Vietnam PPA" that it is not possible to derive the profit from the vietnam IPP using vietnam consumer tariff.

Hence, the RM150m profit forecast by Kenanga remains as strong as its reputation.

I have demonstrated in my article "Jaks Resources - The Matrix Behind The Vietnam PPA" that it is not possible to derive the profit from the vietnam IPP using vietnam consumer tariff.

Hence, the RM150m profit forecast by Kenanga remains as strong as its reputation.


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/202341.jsp

Icon8888, you are welcome