Not true, Insiders know at RM7, the natural gearing ratio will drop to 1.1. Holding warrants now will make more money.

=========================
deMusangking Buyers of warrants are quite fearless. ????

certainly , for they are gamblers!!!!! not investor in the true sense!!!!!!!

Buyers of warrants are quite fearless.
Ignoring the defining rules of warrant investing.
low gearing high premium = least attractive, still buy ?

HOWEVER, If you have high TP, buying warrant for maximum exposure will maximise your profit.

ha ha ha ha ha ha !!! MAYBE !

demusangking,

long article more persuasive, haha

=====================
deMusangking i thot after reading my comment saying that at 50% premium it is madness to buy warrant??!!!!

They will tell you "protected by secrecy clause, next question please"

=====================
SarifahSelinder Shareholders cannot ask in AGM?

I was about to say "Icon8888 is one of the fearless"

=====================
Icon8888 I switched half my warrants to mother shares after reading DK66 article

The gearing ratio at one point in time rose to 1.50.

There were only 11 warrants with gearing ratio below 2. Their average gearing ratio was 1.50.

But it quickly dropped to 1.368 at closing.

Buyers of warrants are quite fearless.

Ignoring the defining rules of warrant investing.

low gearing high premium = least attractive, still buy ?

I fear my article "Jaks resources - deleveraging Jaks-WB" will be trashed.

That figure cannot make public. Got secrecy clause. Can only reveal in private.

Maybe you can make a cake or something ......

Sarifah,

Maybe you can try to get the figure from Steven. But please do not come back with just X.XX per KWH. Then you won't be able to answer all my doubts.

sarifah,

If you can just get sikit information on the tariff payment from the PPA. You will probably be the only one to agree on my TP

People come to i3 for the following reasons;

1. to share
2. to educate
3. to fry stock
4. to look for information
5. to seek answers
6. to kill time
7. to talk
8. to argue
9. to be known
10. to earn subscription fees
11. to seek comfort
12. to express happiness
13. to create panic
14. to irritate
15. to pick fight

Why are you here ?
The last two are the most undesirable

Please do not misunderstand my intention. I don't want to win any argument, I just want to win my investment.

Do you think the company could have lied about the tariff structure ?

Philip,

I m really surprised that there is an agreed fixed tariff rate in the PPA.

It contradicts my knowledge and all my research works for the last 2 years.

Please elaborate on how this fixed tariff rate could fit in the two tier tariff structure as announced by the company.

Thank you very much

================================
their PPA agreement is X.XX cents per KWH (ask me how I know this, I won a drinking match).

Newbie8080,

There may be differences in the cost structure of a hydro and coal plants, how relevant are they when making comparison from investment return point of view, especially in the eyes of foreign investors?

What matter most is the rate of return of investment and its certainty. Rate of return, among others, mainly depends on sovereign ratings and risks of returns.

Both MFCB and Jaks are investing in power generation. Both have "take or pay" kind of PPA. Both are guaranteed by the government.

So, it is the sovereign rating of Laos and vietnam that differentiate the rate of return of investments. I believe Laos offers higher return.

Therefore, it is not totally unreasonable to make comparison between the two investments, especially on the rate of return.

Philip,

Thanks for your input. I didn't mean to suppress your reasoning. I merely state my understanding. I m sure the readers here can reason for themselves.

TQ

Does the statement below say "GO AWAY !" ???

DK66 Please don't chase Philip away. What do we gain ? We need constructive sharing here. We should be grateful if he is willing to share.
10/04/2019 3:52 PM

======================
optimumprime88 tis two fellas Icon8888 DK66 not allow people talks bad on tis counter? why
10/04/2019 4:24 PM

JHDP's PPA is a modified version of take or pay kind of PPA which YTLPower signed with Tenaga 20+ years ago. It is putting too much pressure on Vietnam authority to be precise in their forecasts of the future electricity demand landscape of vietnam. Full version of take of pay will be cheapest to vietnam if it can fully utilise the electricity generated by the power plant for the entire 25 years period. Hence, to allow for some flexibility in power management, a two tier tariff structure was proposed. A fixed portion and a variable portion.

======================================
Power generation of 1200 MW is fixed, it is a take or pay option in the PPA.

If QS and PM are known and guaranteed, why won't i be confident ?

==============================
Question is if the petrol station owner is selling you a new station saying you can make 250K of profits every year and get back your break even costs in 8 years IRR12% (say you invested 2 million in the petrol station), how confident would you be?

You mean Steven's PPA figures doesn't make sense ?

==================================
Again, I am not saying the figures are wrong, but looking at steven's PPA figures I am more confused. I do not like it when inputs and outputs dont make sense.

Please don't chase Philip away. What do we gain ? We need constructive sharing here. We should be grateful if he is willing to share.

Please let Philip answer my doubt

Philip,

Thanks for the compliment.

I try to make it as simple as possible so that everyone can understand.

Petrol selling price (SP) per litre = profit margin (PM) + cost per litre (CP)
Profit Sum (PS) = PM x quantity sold (QS)

Yes, you can fix or predetermine the (PM), But .............

If the CP is not fixed but able to pass through cost to consumer, how to make the SP constant ? SP here is equivalent to traiff per KwH.

Say you need to make a fixed sum of 100k yearly to cover your investment, if the QS is not known, how to make constant sum of (PS) ? PS here is equivalent to Capacity Payment.

Thanks

Philip,

Thanks for the compliment.

I only copied the first four paragraphs as the rests are related to management issues.

I try to make it as simple as possible so that everyone can understand.

Petrol selling price (SP) per litre = profit margin (PM) + cost per litre (CP)
Profit Sum (PS) = PM x quantity sold (QS)

Yes, you can fixed or predetermine the (PM), But .............

If the CP is not fixed but able to pass through cost to consumer, how to make the SP constant ? SP here is equivalent to traiff per KwH.

Say you need to make a fixed sum of 100k yearly to cover your investment, if the QS is not known, how to make constant sum of (PS) ? PS here is equivalent to Capacity Payment.

Thanks

Philip,

Thanks for the compliment.

I only copied the first four paragraphs as the rests are related to management issues.

I try to make it as simple as possible so that everyone can understand.

Petrol selling price (SP) per litre = profit margin (PM) + cost per litre (CP)
Profit Sum (PS) = PM x quantity sold (QS)

If the CP is not fixed but able to pass through cost to consumer, how to make the SP constant ? SP here is equivalent to traiff per KwH.

Say you need to make a fixed sum of 100k yearly to cover your investment, if the QS is not known, how to be make constant sum of (PS) ? PS here is equivalent to Capacity Payment.

Thanks

========================================================
( Soojinhou 79% returns best investor ) Philip AS already STATED by your kind self, the coal costs are pass through. The fixed costs are for ancillary and O&M and replacement costs. The difference is is their profit margin. DK66 you are brilliant and very sharp indeed. Here is my 5 cents.

If you take the example of a gas station, where the prices of Ron97 and diesel are already fixed nationawide, what is your rationale of calculating your fixed costs? Its simple algrebra. you take out the pass through costs of the fuel price (fixed by gov), and you calculate the profit margin on the basic difference sold (also fixed by the refiners and gov) minus the expenses in managing and maintaining the said gas station.

No one is asking the gas station guy to absorb the risk of fluctuations in the price of oil and the nationwide set price of oil selling, there is always a control mechanism in the contract.

Finally we hit the nail on the head, the REAL profit margins gained from the long term 25 year building, managing and operating and repair and maintenance of the power plant.

I extracted below from my article "Understanding Jaks Hai Duong thermal power plant in Vietnam"

JAKS’ POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT WITH VIETNAM ELECTRICITY (“EVN”) (“PPA”) - The PPA provides for EVN to purchase and the BOT Company to sell electricity generating capacity and electricity generated by the Facility for 25 years after the commercial operation date of the Facility unless extended or earlier terminated as stipulated under the PPA. The tariff charged by JAKS Hai Duong to EVN comprises the capacity charge, energy charge and supplemental charge. Fuel (coal and secondary fuel) and limestone costs will be passed-through costs under the PPA.

The Capacity Charge is a fixed payment that is paid each period for each kilowatt of available (not dispatched) capacity. It includes fixed charges involved in the construction, operation, and maintenance of the power plant, including charges for: – Repayment of the principal and interest of the debt used to construct the facility – Return on equity capital invested – Fixed operation and maintenance (O&M) costs that are independent of the amount of energy generated (e.g., staffing costs, administrative expenses, operator fee, insurance premiums, etc.) – Possible fixed costs related to fuel supply and transportation, such as demand or through-put charges, or minimum take-or-pay obligations.

The Energy Charge is paid each period for each kilowatt hour of energy dispatched and delivered at the agreed delivery point during that period. It includes variable costs involved in the generation of the energy delivered, including charges for: – Commodity charges for each unit of fuel used, including the cost of fuel and its transportation to the plant – Variable operation and maintenance costs (e.g., spare parts, lubricants, and other consumables) – A major maintenance sinking fund to cover the costs of required turbine maintenance based on usage.

The Supplemental Charge covers other costs not included in either the Capacity or Energy Charges, including:

– The costs of start-ups beyond an agreed number each year reflecting the cost of fuel per start-up and likely a contribution to the major maintenance sinking fund

– The costs of ancillary services provided if such services are included in the scope of the PPA

– Any supplemental charges for repairing damage to the facility as a result of a Force Majeure event if such repair is the responsibility of buyer.


Does it seem like the tariff payment is on Per KwH basis ?

How can Fixed Per KwH tariff which is dependent on energy output, commit to fixed capacity payment ??
how can Fixed Per KwH tariff allows for pass through of fuel and variable costs ??

Philip,

Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

Care to share more on "their PPA agreement is X.XX cents per KWH" ?

TQ

===============================
their PPA agreement is X.XX cents per KWH (ask me how I know this, I won a drinking match)

Icon8888 likes this, so i keep this posted once in a while.

Charlie Munger's Big Lesson: Prepare for Opportunity

What is the most important personal quality an investor can have?

Patience... followed by pretty aggressive conduct. It is given to human beings who work hard at it—who look and sift the world for a mispriced bet — that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don’t. It’s just that simple.

I have received queries on the coming qtr results.

Q1 results will have to take in RM19m LTIP expenses. This put a lot of pressure on its bottom line. To turn green, it has to report 8%+ progress billings in its vietnam EPC works with no major hiccups in its other businesses.

The Q4 2018 results was messy, but look at the share price ......

My advice is look further. That is what the big boys are doing. Taking advantage of temporary weaknesses to load up aggressively.

In stock market, conservatism may be the key to survival but won't make you very rich.

Thanks Daniel

But I believe in doing good deeds

free thinker

no. Why?

edkfc thanks

It is impossible to set the COD now. It depends on the construction progress.

1 Oct 2020 is the deadline for COD of Unit 1

JHDP shall pay US$60,000 per day per unit for each day of delay after the deadline. The deadline for unit one shall be 48 months and 54 months for unit 2 after the construction start date which was 1st Oct 2016. Subject to max of US$15m.

==========================
GoHaiDuongGo No, Commercial Operation Date for# 1 is 1 Oct 2020
09/04/2019 1:38 PM

Unit # 1 Scheduled COD 1 Oct 2020
Unit # 2 Scheduled COD. 1 Apr 2021

These are not COD but Deadlines ! Must finish well before these date otherwise kena penalties!

================================
GoHaiDuongGo
Unit # 1 Scheduled COD 1 Oct 2020
Unit # 2 Scheduled COD. 1 Apr 2021
Frequent progress updates by the Chinese thrill many of us here.
18 more months of round the clock toiling will get #1 running.
Be patient and stay invested in Jaks !

Anon,

Sorry, I don't have any short term target price.

----------------------------------
Anon DK66, what is your Target Price prior to QR release?

So, Bad news + strategy = Good news ?

====================================
qqq3 selling by CFO did not harm the share
that means my analysis is correct.

It was planted on purpose. CFO sold share got strategy behind it one.

Icon8888,

You shouldn't be so surprised. Let me explain ......

If Jaks-WB gearing hit 1.3 when Jaks is about RM4 , then I m not surprised.

However, its gearing hit 1.3 when Jaks was less than RM0.90.

If this is not a huge vote of confidence, then what ? Stupid buying ???

Let me show you why they are buying at 1.3 gearing ;

At RM7, theoretical value of Jaks-WB = RM7 - 0.64 = RM6.36
At RM7, Natural Gearing ratio of Jaks-WB = RM7 / 6.36 = 1.1

See, gearing will go as low as 1.1. So, it is still better to buy Jaks-WB for maximum exposure.

======================
Icon8888 TP RM7 to 10 ?

: 0
09/04/2019 9:53 AM

No lar, I have to thank him for his article which drew my attention

====================
striker888 Ha-ha, dk66. If your TP is reached, kyy will bow to you every morning
09/04/2019 9:46 AM

demusangking, My TP is RM7 - RM10. Do you think I will sell now ?

Happy :)

http://www.aepc1.ceec.net.cn/art/2019/4/8/art_14630_1873418.html

Anyway, we could be on the same boat again next time. No worries, Aseng.

I just learned that my friend Aseng do not have anymore Jaks or Jaks-wb. So sad.

I still strongly believe Jaks can realise my dream :)

I won't give up until there are strong signs that the vietnam ipp will fail. Right now, everything is just fine. Completion is getting nearer.

Wetmarket,

Good to hear that. You disappeared for a while.

Why ? I thought you have confidence in Jaks ?

------------------------
Aseng DK66,

so unlucky we are not in the same boat , I do not have a single share of jaks or jaks-WB now .

Thank you, Aseng.