This counter reminds me of hengyuan. The bullishness, the formulas, the same modus operandi.

Hancur hancur aku

Max, what is your buying point?

Umno and pas alliance can win the next election. When it becomes real, sin stocks will kena punish first

Don’t be too bullish. If you did your homework, you would have saw the share price movement of few tech stocks like MPI and Foundpac. Penta share will gap up in early session and then pullback. The supply chain interruption is real. My company is also affected by it. Best time to buy is few months down the road

Any sifu analyzed this stock? Capex is damn huge and why is the company perpetually undervalued vs dialog?

Penta next quarter is affected by supply chain interruption in China. The growth will see a temporary headwind. Tomorrow is the best chance to sell

gg

Sell

Sell

The only thing kc chong does well is extrapolating the past

Philip sifu is my idol. Respek.

Ouch

RM 400k portfolio at your age is nothing to shout of. Word of advice, put some of your money in hard asset in land if you have the means to do so. The wealth creation from hard asset will be more than your daily punt on Bursa lah

Icon sifu. No doubt about your real life combat experience. I estimate your stock portfolio is not more than RM400k, definitely not Phillip sifu level yet. I would suggest you withdraw all your EPF and sailang since you are rich in combat experience

A word of advice, Ricky. Studying few more books does not guarantee success in the stock market. Be humble and keep an open mind of the possibilities in the stock market. Sifu like Icon and Phillip did not study a single finance book and yet made 10000x more money than you from the market like ATM machine. Lastly, do not bring out your finance theory to rebut my comments. I come to i3 to make money, not to involve in intellectual discussions with you.

This ricky yeo acts like the number one book smart student in the classroom who look down on all his classmates except Jon Choivo (who carry the same feathers) just because he read more finance books than everyone else. But her results suggest otherwise, there were almost no stock picks from her all over the years. What she did was going to every column of gap up stocks which she missed and tell people why the stock shouldnt trade higher based on her PE and ROIC theories.

I have warned everybody since last year. This ricky yeo is a master of textbooks who would make a better lecturer than an investor. Her picks such as AEONCR and APM all went holland against the benchmark and her articles were no where to be seen. I guess she felt too embarassed and deleted those rubbish articles. In every forum, whenever Ricky felt she lost the argument, she would bring out her grandmother story of a ten bagger investment in Scientex. Little did she know, her coup in Scientex could be interpreted as nothing more than luck in line with her finance textbook theories.

Good work long numbers guy. That would keep few i3 buddies quiet.

How to spot a company that has attained critical mass? We look for company with first signs of above average return on equity way beyond the cost of capital.

What long numbers guy suggested in his earlier comments was buying into a company that has attained critical mass. The appropriate size of the company where they are small enough to grow further and big enough to kill the market competitive force with whatever moat they built.

Long numbers guy, wonderful article as always. Do consider starting a blog away from i3. I will be among your first follower!

CP Teh, time to take your medicine

Stockraider, I like QL business. Not the stock at P/E 50. Big difference between liking a business and liking a stock

By the way, I like 3A at this price

Icon8888 has many failed picks over the years as far as I am concerned. But like all the self proclaimed sifus here, the losers always being swept under the carpet. When we quote it, they became ashame and start posting articles about their past winners.

Icon8888, you like 3A you buy lor. Tapioca price goes up and down. You want to invest based on tapioca price alone just go ahead. It is not my game. Just like how I avoided losing money in Jaks, I operate under my circle of competence.

Author mindset

重仓3A,等待爆发

Probability, that is the reason why I mentioned a lot of brain power was expended analyzing Hengyuan. I recognized the contribution. I also recognized the irrational exuberance when Hengyuan was around RM 16.

Icon8888, I am not a person who feeds on attention like you. I am very happy with myself. To me, i3 is an outlet to have fun. It would be madness to take things too seriously over here.

I am never a good investor. Just like you who only had one lucky winner in Airasia after contributing multiple articles. I can write beautiful articles too but I chose to spend more time with family.

Not to mention about your latest very successful investment in an IPP. I wouldnt like to touch on it as I might ruffle some feathers here.

Is this investment going to come good? Good luck and all the best.

To study a typical boom-bust cycle on i3, please go to Hengyuan forum and read all posts from 2017-2018. The amount of brain power put into the analysis of Hengyuan is unmatched. We had many smart guys trying to predict Hengyuan quarterly profits which were futile in the end. We also had some value guys giving Hengyuan a RM 50 target price which is theoretically sensible due to the replacement cost. But, cyclical is a cyclical. It is a huge lesson and many long time i3 members chose to brush it off like nothing happened as if the pain and shame was too hard to bear.

3iii is one of the respectable i3 members on the platform. I remember those days where almost everybody went crazy over Hengyuan asset value. 3iii and Ricky were the two whom kept their sanity. To this day, I still look upon 3iii especially when he successfully countered stockraider , probability & co bullishness. To keep a cool mind under a rising market is not easy. It is even more impressive when you could counter them with facts.

Sslee, why dont you grow up and stop the personal attacks on other i3 mrmbers? I dont agree with many statements made by qqq3 but not once I attacked his logic. The only person I attack on i3 is CP Teh. Be a wise man.

Just like Renaissance Technologies in the US which is arguably the best performing hedge fund in thr history of mankind. It does not fit into any i3 members strategy. High frequency trading and complex algorithms that will even put KC extrapolation maths to shame. What if Renaissance Technologies did not use fundamental analysis at all in their investment process? Are you going to prove it is wrong? Why bother?

Sometimes I find a few high profile i3 theory crafters taking an opinion and beliefs too seriously. An opinion is not a truth where you need to prove it. Everybody has their own system of beliefs in approaching the stock market. Long numbers guy has his own. KC has his own. I have my own. However, the theory crafters do not have an open mind to accept that there are limitless opportunities in the market which could be reached through different ways or different mental models.

When you see articles like this, it means somebody has accumulated lotsa shares and want others to oush up.

Investing? How many got rich through investing? Very few. My experience is that most businessman made 99% of their net worth through owning and running businesses.

KC, didnt your value investing picks work only for the period of 2013-2016? I remember ever since the market's tide become higher, you have a harder time finding winners.

Stockraider was calling hengyuan worth RM 50 per share before the collapse. Just saying.

And in Bursa Malaysia, great company with moat does indeed trade at rich valuation. I remember during 08/09, Public Bank never traded below book value. I couldnt recall when Public Bank ever traded at a low price to book value or below book value. But, investors who bought Public Bank at premium valuation still made considerable return over the years. The question is, does QL have moat? I dont know since I dont own QL. That is for the prospective investors to answer.

Nobody is asking anybody to buy QL at P/E 50. Long numbers guy can afford to hold because his entry price is low. From a business sense point of view, I think more research should be done to justify purchasing QL shares at this price. This is the key to long term investment success in QL AT THIS VALUATION. QL is overvalued on every possible valuation metric. Whether QL will be a good investment from here and beyond does not depend on the numbers. Instead, it depends on how their business will evolve over time. If QL successfully become an Asean agro giant, this price would be cheap. If QL expansion is less successful, a P/E reset will be coming. End of the day, it is about how much you understand the business and none of us, retail investors could possibly understand it in-depth bar long numbers guy who had a ground talk with the company's insiders.

This is a company with a weaker moat month by month

Herbertchua is always wrong

Great article. Thanks long numbers guy.

Ricky boy, I acknowledge your proficiency in finance academics. I will be very proud if my son had the same theory articulation like you in future.

There are two types of people on i3. The first group is people like me who are here to have fun and make money without any agenda. The second group is people like OTB or Kcchong who are here to sell subscription newsletters.

I assume you are in the latter group or at least, aspiring to be. To be recognize as a top investor here on i3, you need to show people your investment analysis like long numbers guy who recently became one of the most acknowledged member in a short period of time. Think about it, how many years have you been here? And has your newsletter business took off?

Here's a tip for you. Instead of showing off your academician knowledge, why not spend more time writing investment case studies? If you are incapable of doing that or are afraid of the repercussions of being wrong and ridiculed, try channelling your "I am the smartest finance guy on i3 and I need to show everybody I am smart at all costs" on popular members like calvintan, icon3333, stockraider or sslee. I am sure these people are the best targets to market your business since they have a large audience.

Jon have been here a shorter period than you. Even he has shown promising signs to become good at investing by taking a risk publishing his investment reports for all to see. He has his fair share of finance theory but also showed everybody his analytical ability.

You on the other hand have shown nothing. Zero. No credibility whatsover.

I am just trying to help you as a nobody without any agenda on i3.

Jon, I have no tendency to believe my understanding of things are superior to everybody else unlike Ricky and you.

As a matter of fact, I do recognize the imperfection of my unconventional understanding of the market against the academician consensus. Of course, I do not need you to agree with everything I said.

I agree with most of your assessment of certain investment yardsticks. What about those that I do not agree with? Did you see me harping on the issues I disagree with like heaven god’s send?

A self-perceived superiority in knowledge is always always found in arrogant young men who have not seen enough. Lets not try to become philosophical in proving or disproving financial theories. We are here to make money not become a nobel prize laureate in finance.

I see great potential in you Jon. I am just trying to help. You are still young and you can pick your own path. Become good in investing like long numbers guy or become good in writing for finance newspaper. The choice is yours.

Ricky, I do not need you to teach me finance. When I do not type/speak in your financial language does not mean that I do not understand financial theory.

Book value is always a rough estimate of a company’s intrinsic value. You can throw all your finance vocab at this statement to prove its flaw and I still wouldnt be convinced. There is a reason why Warren Buffett lists the historical value of Berkshire’s book value on the front page of its annual report every year.

Thus, I give zero fook at your “understanding” of intrinsic value and book value. In fact, if you are interested to share your financial theory again, why not sit a plane to Omaha and debate with Warren Buffett?

My apology if I hurt your feelings. Again, I do not need to tell you about my returns in the market as I have nothing to prove nor I am trying to audition for a role at The Star Business.

You are so smart Ricky. Indeed, I have no intention to get involve in any intellectual discussion with you. Told you. I came here to make money. But you, on the other hand, come here to practice as a finance journalist for The Star.

What I suggested was the flat share price could be due to the dilution from ICULS and recent change in accounting standards that tweaked reported book value. Why dont you show us the maths for your $7.48 book value with your TI BA II??

Dont forget to send your resume to The Star. I think it could be your home.

Long numbers guy does not have to entertain sslee and stock raider. This two are asset value investors. No amount of facts could change their beliefs.

You think so easy to break into the last mile delivery market ah. Do you know how many competitors in this business? How you wanna win market share from the bigger guys?