From my years of reading i3, I dont think anybody is of long numbers guy level yet except Felicity

Young boy, I have seen enough over the years that you shouldnt invest in poultry stocks based on market price of their products. You want to focus on their capacity and their profit margin compared to competitors.

Rubbish

Long numbers guy, mind to share more about Dialog business? What do you see in it?

AEONCR has stayed pretty much stagnant for the last two or three financial years. Yes, the revenue and profit keeps going up. But does the improvement in profit result in greater shareholder value? If we were to use the most simple yardstick which is book value as a rough measure of intrinsic value, AEONCR intrinsic value has contracted in the pursue of growth of the last few years.

Just look at long numbers guy business sense and compared it to somebody like kcchong. It is only when the tide goes out, you discover who is swimming naked. Over the years, our extrapolation master has only shared his extrapolation maths and nothing on business sense. I have reminded time and time again about kcchong's flawed method of looking at investments. And time and time again, he will quote his yesteryear's track record while ignoring the fact that he could only be lucky.

Give kcchong RM 1 million, he would take out his calculator and show you the maths why his RM 1 million will compound indefinitely.

Give long numbers guy RM 1 million, he would invest in a company with moat and tells you the competitive advantage of the underlying business.

Give Jon Choivo RM 1 million, he would invest in multiple value stocks while continue to write beautiful letter to shareholders every quarter.

Give Ricky RM 1 million, he would invest in value traps while sharing his financial theory.

Now, you tell me. Who is the sifu?

Thanks long numbers guy. I really enjoy your business analysis. Sometimes, it is harder to analyze a business than to analyze the numbers. If you are interested, create a blog for yourself analyzing businesses. I will be one of your followers.

I hope nobody replies stockraider. No offense to him but stockraider replies give me cancer. Too long winded.

Ricky should work for The Star. He will be a very successful finance journalist

The next successful person I know of is Thermofisher from Cari/Investalks days. He has the same temperament as long numbers guy in investing. This guy is all about business sense investing. Invest in a great business with trustable management for the long term. His track record is close to 25% CAGR. (You can check out his old postings) His holdings were Public Bank, LPI, Hartalega and QL. Did he talk about intrinsic value? Nope. Did he talk about business sense and management? Yes. Thus, when people like Jon Choivo/Ricky/Kcchong kept harping about intrinsic value/over valuation/negative cash flow like the success of an investment depends on them, I am amused.

This herbert chua wanna promote his counter again!

Hahahaha

Lol

Bird bird chua is back. This bird bird lost all his credibility after telling everybody to sailang TM stocks. Bird bird chua is only fun when he makes fun of KYY. Nothing more nothing less!

Jesus guys. I mean Jon Choivo and Ricky is daft with their academic theory. But no need to insult them lah. Argue facts with facts. Thats the gentlemanly way. Dont scare away the young boys. They are contributing useful knowledge. Instead, we should get rid of CP Teh which contributes zero to the community.

Hahahaha

Many has fallen into the trap of Insas. I remember KYY held Insas at one point and even he could not realized the true value in the underlying asset. Insas is sort of like the awakening. Once you wake up from the dream, you figure things out and become a stock market master.

Your assessment of family mart is funny too. You must have not stepped into a famima before. I suggest you read up Michael Porter value chain analysis and learn whats famima competitive strength.

The economics of a small independent farmer selling his eggs to kedai runcit is very different from an agro group selling their eggs to big markets. I assume you only know the former based on your response. If you like to learn more about poultry business, give me your email, I could set you up a meeting with somebody to teach you poultry business. Anyway, have fun posting your negative biases against QL here. Sometimes, i3 needs an entertainer. It makes i3 much more pleasurable to binge. 10 years later, when QL indeed became a bigger/better business, clowns like you will be nowhere to be seen and that makes Jon Choivo a saint because at least he acknowledges when hes wrong.

QL gearing ratio is acceptable. It is normal for poultry companies to gear.

Many are doubting QL valuation at P/E 50. Looking at QL strategies, I will be the one of the first to buy QL shares at half the price, say P/E 25. What QL is doing right now is to become a) A downstream agro food giant b) Replicating its business model in vietnam and indonesia. Try visualizing QL ten years later on perfect execution. I have chills in my spine.

You guys are messing with the wrong person. Long numbers guy is felicity's level. He is unlike OTB who only tells you buy/sell at your own risk when he is dumbfounded by contradicting facts. I really hope everyone could appreciate how long numbers guy look at businesses.

Sslee, insas has been undervalued for many many years. It is a value trap. Why cant you see it?

Interesting analysis on glove manufacturers. Long mumbers guy, care to elaborate more on the delivery lead time? Tq

Business got ups and downs. Hartalega is the BEST glove manufacturer in the WORLD. Take this drawdown as a chance to accumulate.

Nonsense

Haha. SC is watching.

Yup, even his profit is minimalistic.

Cp teh is a very successful trader who made many 10 baggers in life. Yes, 10 baggers. Stocks which he saw his profit multiply ten times from 1 cent to 10 cents and sold.

Good analysis.

EPF bought recently. Based on some i3 forumers logic, EPF investment fund managers who probably have Ivy league qualifications/CFA/MBA must be stupid

This author talks alot but doesnt tell anything. Most of his stories are nonsense.

We need book recommendations from long numbers guy

The sifu spoke.

Hahaha. Maybe one day Jon boy will come out with his own keropok business story

This is a bad company. Value trap.

Jon Choivo. I can see where you are coming from and I think you are not wrong. Long numbers guy is not wrong too. To each its own. Both ways of seeing things work. End of the day it is all about value investing vs growth investing again.

Hahaha. P/E is not everything in investment. It is imperfect to judge a business by P/E. Or else how do we value great disruptors like Alibaba, Uber or Airbnb? P/E was almost non-existent for these companies in the early stage. A negative P/E would mean these companies were a bad investment back in the day.

Who is the most successful investor in the last two decades? It was Softbank's Masayoshi Son. He is the modern day warren buffett.

Long numbers guy has already explained his rationale. In Malaysia, we dont get many great business to invest. Hence, great companies with super moat will be given extremely high P/E.

Oh dear. I hope long numbers guy do not fall into the trap of answering sslee's argument. To each its own.

I would adopt a wait and see approach on Padini. Business wise, there are more and more competitors copying Padini concept store and Brands Outlet business model. In Klang Valley, smaller competitors could not get into Tier 1 or Tier 2 shopping malls due to its smaller scale. Few years ago, Padini had no real competitor except FOS and Cotton On in those malls. But now both competitors had grown in size in terms of store size offering pretty much the same concept. In tier 3 cities, that is where the real blood bath is. Many independent retailers are copying Padini business model here and there. If next quarter results shows poor results, I would be worried about Padini's prospects.

Lmao. He said he bought last week.

Icon8888, I did not rebut your remarks here because I respect you as a long time i3 contributor as opposed to the random commenter. What I want to share is look beyond the numbers and understand why the market undervalue MBMR. Even the recent acquirer made a lowball offer on MBMR which was rejected. There are plenty of profitable associate companies held under holding entity that is undervalued by the market. Anyway, this does not mean MBMR share price will not go up. It may go to RM 3 and I wish you a happy new year!

It is a real pleasure to learn from long numbers guy. Instead of the analysis, we need to look at his thinking/mental models about stocks. Long numbers guy did not claim to be an expert on Airasia. I believe the homework he done on QL is much more than the effort he put into Airasia. It was me who asked about long numbers guy two cents on Airasia. Most i3 members who trades Airasia does not look at Airasia from a business perspective. Most would pull out a few tables and charts, telling you oil price have gone down and it is time to buy for possible explosive earnings in the next few quarters after applying 10x PE. Nobody on i3 have ever assessed Airasia competitive position before, aside from another sifu Felicity. Having the ability to understand competitive advantages do not happen overnight. It takes experience, lots of reading and most importantly, an open mind.

Jesus. Thank you long numbers guy. This is a different insight that we always read in the mainstream analyst reports. That explains why Airasia is accorded subpar valuation despite its track record. What you said is true. Many small airlines have caught up with Airasia business model. Buying planes in bulk, being lean and focus on the higher margin ancilliary income business.

Back to the small/mid cap question in my post earlier, what are your thoughts?

And another question is regarding AirAsia:

This is a counter which you picked under i3 stock pick contest.

Airasia undoubtedly has moat. It is one of the lowest cost airline in the world by various airline yardsticks. eg. Cost per ASK. Over the last 20 years, Airasia continue to gain market share from its competitors. It completely dominated the Malaysian domestic route market and looks to repeat the same feat in other ASEAN countries.

Historically, Airasia traded at 1.9x book value at its peak valuation. Now, it is 1.15x book value. With the ongoing asset light strategy, it seems Tony Fernandes is doing everything to prop up Airasia value recognition.

In your opinion, why does Airasia not being given a higher valuation like QL? I noticed that you mentioned cyclical stocks are typically given low valuation because investors can choose not to buy.

Does the same theory apply to Airasia? Or there are other reasons behind the low valuation?

Holy shit. Learnt so much wisdom reading long numbers guy posts.

Here is a question for you:

What are your views about small/mid cap stocks besides them being heavily manipulated?

We all know there are good gems in the small/mid cap market. Hartalega started out as a small cap stock. Back in 2009, I remember buying Harta at 10x P/E and watching it double in a short space of time.

Assuming we know a business that has a huge competitive advantage, what criteria do you look at and say this small/mid cap company might be worth investing in the long run?

Lmao

MBM is another forever undervalued company. Sometimes you got to think why the undervaluation persists. Is it because of its business? Is it because of its holding company status? Is it because of the illiquidity discount? Plenty of factors to ponder at. CCB who one time had a 49% stake in mercedes benz malaysia was completely ignored by the market too. My theory is that fund managers tend to discount associate stake in car manufacturers and prefer to value companies with car manufacturing/dealership as their core business. That is why BAuto, Sime are valued at a premium

Lets not talk about other counters here. We need long number guy insights on QL