Genting sing Q4 2017, revenue down 8%, EBITDA DOWN 20%, bad results, no wonder genting share price performance really weak

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/02/01/macau-casinos-start-year-with-strongest-revenue-gain-since-2014/

Recap Gent Sing will post Q4result on 23 Feb not 23 Jan

15-23 Jan institutions short selling on Genting share increase, on 23 Jan Genting short selling, itself almost made up to 50% all sum of short selling.

WYNN posted flying colors Q4 results on 22Jan (triple in profit, 50% jump in VIP volume), translate LVS Sand (will today after US market close) expect 10-25%jump in VIP volume, also translates Gent Sing will have 10-15% jumps in VIP volume,
Gent Sing did jump around 5% up six cents to 1.39, but genting has no response, ever genM up 11cents, this is my strong feelings came from,
Looks like my feelings only will come after sing gent and genting results post on 23 Jan

A strong feeling genting-wa is going to break 1.80 today

Major catalyst update

GenS-
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1) Early redemption of its S$1.8billion and S$500million 5.125% Perpetual Subordinated Capital Securities on 12 September 2017 and 18 October 2017 respectively will save S$75-80 million annually and attributes Rm120 million save to Genting annually from Q4-2017 onward.
2). Lower operating cost and impaired lose, soft recovery in business volume, specially from Vip segment (first increase in 12 quarters ), expected better winning rate and potentially of winning bid the Japanese casino by 2018, which will re-rate EV/EBITDA from 12x to 13.5x ( target price of 1.55)(expects, GENS profit improve to S800mil)

Negative:-
Recent weakness in Sing Dollars, will weaken Genting earnings by2-3%

GenM-
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1). Genting Integrated Tourism Plan(GITP)
1a) Additional 250 gaming tables (from 550 to 800/ 40% increased ) and additional 2000+(from3500 to 5500) slot machines. Whole sky avenue casino will fully attribute profits by Q42017. NOTED THAT , Currently Genting already have Casino licenses from Pahang state, Selangor state and also Wilayah.P. (yes they just obtained).
1b) Indoor theme park expanded to be completed 1H2018 and 20th Fox century theme to be open 2H2018. Its expected to attract 4 million (ref: ex theme park visitors is about 3.2mil) per year, in/out door theme park ticket price targeted around Rm150-250, could generate additional Rm600 million to Rm1 billion in revenue and Rm250-350million in net profit starting 2H2018.
2) Expect winning rate to be normally after declining in Q2 and Q32017
3) Usd400 million expansion Resorts World Casino New York City, include a 400-rooms hotel, dining outlets, retails and new gaming areas.

Neg:-
1) The Mashpee Wampanoag tribe for casino, is being delayed by a legal challenge and GenM may write off the whole sum or part of $347.4 million company invested in promissory notes issued by the tribe.
2). Recent strong Ringgit exchange, are negative to US and UK operation.
3) 250-280mil/per year, higher depreciation and amortization expense by genting Malaysia (around 7.5bil utilization of total10.4b GITP so far)(more to come), 49.3% interest, that's about 140mil decrease in before tax profit in genting .
4) around 20-30mil per quarter increase in pre opening cost by Genting Malaysia, around 40-60 mil decreasein before tax profit in genting.

Gent Plantation-
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1) 8% increase in FFB in 2017 compare 2016 But partly offset by recent decrease in CPO price (rm2600)
2) further improve from Genting premium Outlet operations.

Genting (Direct interest)
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1) Resort World Las Vegas mass construction work to be commence early next year and expected to be operated by 2020 (since usd 400mil contract had been assigned)
2) licensing and management fees charge to GenM expected to increase from Rm600 to Rm630 and Rm680 million by 2018 and 2019
3) licensing and intellectual property in US and Bahamad to increase from Rm75m to Rm80 and Rm85 million by 2018 and 2019
4) further improve in profit from Indonesia Banten 660mw, MeiZhou Wan I 660 mw and II 2x1000mw power plant. Expect to contribute about 250-300 mil in net profit.
5) Asap-Kido -Merah Kasuri Gas 285 (mmscfd) production development approval by 1H2018. Further releases unlisted assests value.(currently 50-70% discount by brokerages firm)

NEGATIVE:

1) higher interest expense by rm180mil per year(8-10% decrease in before tax profit), after usd0.5bil and usd1bil 4.25% bond issued by GOHL (direct interest)
2) squeeze in Meizhou wan power plant profit margins (meizhou wan I profit had droped from rmb289mil (2015) to rmb78.8mil (2016), furthermore to rmb27.5mil(1H2017), foresee profit margin to be improve in 2018. Base on 2014-2015 profit margin, Meizhou wan I and II, shall generate at least rmb1bil in profit (genting will share half rmb500mil or rm320m), but will only see rm30-40mil attributes to genting profit in 2017

Catalyst are as above as I commented, it still very positive in long term, very seldom could see sustainable (3-7years) growth in large cap counter

Look's like about another 12-15mil share had been dumped by mass life mutual recently

But drag by genm performance, both revenue and profit drop, despite 25% growth in visitors yoy

Excluding UK casino license impairment losses 252m and foreign exchange loss on others investment 236m, core net core would be around 679m, in fact not that bad

Really bad

Gent plant post Q3 profit for 76.5m, gent and genm expected post results, tomorrow after 5

bought some at 8.9x last time, get nothing this round , looking for 8.5-8.6, no a good news, no a bad news

Seen like towards 8.8 soon

Go into sept 2015 quarters result, one quarter of this foreign exchange difference can arise 6000m in profit, but this is not core profit, it does count as a kind of profitability, or we call it as core profit

In profit and lose report, normally after net profit attributable to shareholders, there is an item call foreign exchange differences gain or loss, will generate the comprehensive net profit and loss, but every quarter there can be 1000m-3000m profit/loss, so, no one really take that into for profit forecast. But it does effect Bv or NTA,
When rm 3.3 devaluation to 4.5 this account arising about 11b, or 11000mil in profit, but that doesn't calculate. That why recent year genting NTA, shoot faster then the profit the generating.

Us and uk business only account 20% of genm profit, or 10% of Genting profit, 5% increase in Rm, will arise 0.1x0.05=0.5% in profit. While Sg dollar, normally will paring with rm movement, less fluctuations, so I apply 3.09 in Q3 and 3.06 in Q4 2017. Forex issues had been factored in

Today trading vol seen to be above 3m, this 2-5 days looks like 10m will been dump out by mass mutual

How many days its rebound , answers 30days

Back in 2015 sept norway sovereign fund sold 2% of its stake in genting, share dump like crazy

One statement from anyone powerfully in the world by tomorrow either Yellen, najib, bnm, unlce lim, etc, will change the sentiment tomorrow, i am stupid person, i dont what they will say tomorrow, but i know company profit is real money

When u buought 1000 share in 1970, its always right if you hold until now, its always right even you sell anyway after 3 years u bought, because u still always make money. Long term always right, short term, i dont know.

1,3,4,5 is almost secure, even genm make 200m in net, it only reduce profit for genting by 40m, on other hand i am discussing about net core profit, not net profit

2017 Q4, normally 5% strong in revenue and 12% increase in profit for past ten years record,

1) S$188+18+29(save interest from 2.3b) fron Gent sing net profit,
2) GentM should 320mil core profit
3) 100mil managent fees and 50m malaysia + 18m (us)licenses fees and trade mark fees, from gentM
4) 100 from GentP
5) power oil and gas more or less breakeven

380m (3.06x0.5298xs$235m)
158m (320x0.493)
138m (100+58+18-30cost)
50m. (85x0.502)
726m net core in total

1) S$143mil fron Gent sing net profit, the core profit is around S$188m(excluding extraordinary item)
2) GentM should 280mil core profit Q2 2017(around 280m excluding bimini lose and forex)
3) 100mil managent fees and 50m malaysia + 18m (us)licenses fees and trade mark fees, from gentM
4) 80-90 from GentP
5) power oil and gas more or less breakeven

234m (3.09x0.5298xs$143m)
138m (280x0.493)
138m (100+58+18-30cost)
42m. (85x0.502)
552m total
Core around 700m

I seen price dump as lucky

But as we all foresee there is another opportunity we can get in at around rm8.8 or 8.5, or even 8.2 (if its happen normally will only last for a few days only, so please dont think to much at that moment), see we are lucky enough or not

My estimation, 2017 Q3 core profit will be around 520m to 570m , and 2017 Q4 core around 650-730m EPS (17-19sen)
2018 full year Eps around 70-80sen, history 19x one year forward PE, on Feb 24-26, once the 2017 Q4 650-730 strong result come out, and all research home roll over price target to 2018/2019 earnings, new consensus target price will be around rm13-13.5. Rm 9 is almost 3 standard deviation lower.

Believe or not, even mass mutual sell all its stake in 3-6 months, it always has someone who will buy it all,

1) this round 8.8 to 9.5, up and down, up and down, almost 1% share was digested, another round, 0.5%, total 1.5%

2) next round when rm8.8-rm8.5, another 0.5-0.8%/per round, normall 2 round, 1.5%+1.5%=3%,

3) if another round is coming rm8-8.2, market will digest another 2%, {total 5%] all sold. dont forget when price get back to rm10, Market can digest 1-2%, or not the share price will jump like crazy.

4-5 round after 5% ( max 6 months) is gone, hardly the price will go below rm8 even they sell all stake once short. They always has good reason to sell, but sometimes these fund manager are not stupid until they will still willing to sell even buyer willing to pay higher.

At a price, it always has buyers would like to take, 5% around 1800m stake, base on market vol and price elasticity, below 8 is almost impossible. Rm8.5 is very rare we can see, based on current earnings.

hengyuan was only a 600m+ market cap (when rm2.08), hibiscus only 300m+[when0.2}, 100m flow in or out into the counter, the price can double, triple or the price can also drop from10+ to 2 . These are cycling business, no profit guaranteed, even when oil price was at usd130, shell only can price to 5-6x PE, even paying 6-7%dividend. back in 2008.
They do not know what happen the next, once they invested, they are lack in for many many years, they can not change plan and must make losess 2-5 years consecutively and can make very good profit few years later. Other players must spend few years time in order to jump in to the industry. Dont forget share price for shell had been dumping for almost 4-5 years no stop before now.

Genting is a big cap elephant, net cash, consumer theme, less fluctuation and uncertaint, predictable and almost 99% of the time, the core business can make money (as always), even it subsidiary GentP(check late 20years history)And Power, it never make loses. No wheater what happen after any crisis, these are the counter who jumping up first. Even that, sometimes they do get into head wind environments or big crisis, coursing them make smaller profit, they share price may drop to half ( 40-60% max), but it always get back relatively fast and strong. Consider this rm6.7 to rm10 is 50% increase, to rm9 is still 35% increase in price, for these type of blue chip consider outperformed. And remember 100m flow in/out into counter may effect in short term (since participation rate is relatively low now), 100m in/out flow almost has little influence on the share price in longer term. Of course, genting had a problem of low participation by investors, and relatively less frequent of company share buy back and low dividend payout.

Noontrader, you are totally wrong, since 9 nov, mass mutual had sold their stake from around 5.7% to less then 5%, once their shareholding below 5% they are no longer substantial shareholder, so they don't need to report to SC when they buy or they sell share, so we can't know weather they buy ir they through announcement. No meaning that they are no selling, the others ways to check this is through bloomberg, or researchers home have access of the information.

Do nothing today, going to vacation to night, good luck all buddies

Those who sell when price is drop and dumping, this is a good lesson

Collect 300,000 wa all below 1.51 and 30,000 mother below 8.95, not planing to sell any of them yet

Not any sight of selling by foreign fund below 9, even they block at 9, in short run price may not rising above 9, it also mean now is bottoming,

Collect collect collect

Grab 10,000 at 8.95

Like AirAsia and Shell(EFP), i make big money, {i mean EpF sold Shell 15% at Rm5 all the way to Rm2.1}, not genting

Buying monopoly business is almost almost right, Buying profit growing business is almost almost right, Buying blue chip at low is almost almost right, the only can make u wrong is that , you are not patient and anxieties(if u are not a reasonal investor)

It's always right to buy monopoly and growing blue chip at low

If, it is not this stupid big leg selling like crazy, AirAsia can ho Rm1.00?, shell (hengyuan) can go rm2.07? Hope tomorrow genting major shareholders sale to 8.5, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, i grab more,

Like AirAsia and Shell(EFP), i make big money

it's always benefit to us as a retailer when major shareholders purchase or dispose its stake to open market, when they purchase, we have the choice to sale at high, we they dispose, we have the choice to buy at low, choice is our, we can always make our choice. More choice its available, mean better off to us, like now, we have chance to buy low. I very happy to see this big leg participate in open market, that provide chance to us

Genting sing is releasing Q3 report next Monday

Collect another 50,000 at 1.50

Get 50,000 at 1.5

Today busy,

Today pricing seen attractive, will accumulate some next week

Main lackcluters for genting recently including
1) higher interest expense by rm270mil per year(10-12%decrease in before tax profit), after usd0.5bil and usd1bil 4.25% by GOHL (direct interest)
2) 280mil higher depreciation and amortization expense by genting Malaysia (around 6bil utilization of total10.4b GITP so far)(more to come), 49.3% interest, that's about 140mil decrease in before tax profit in genting .
3) around 30-40mil per quarter increase in pre opening cost by Genting Malaysia, around 60 mil decreasein before tax profit in genting.
4) squeeze in Meizhou wan power plant profit margins (meizhou wan I profit had droped from rmb289mil (2015) to rmb78.8mil (2016), furthermore to rmb27.5mil(1H2017), foresee profit margin to be increase after Q3 2017 and 2018. Base on 2014-2015 profit margin, Meizhou wan I and II, shall generate at least rmb1bil in profit(genting will share half rmb500mil or rm320m), and this year, we will only see rm30-40mil profit in report.

Catalyst are as above as I commented, it still very positive in long term, very seldom could see sustainable (3-7years) growth in big cap counter

No more planning, planing and planing, Will see full construction been implemented soon, since usd1.5bil bond being issued and construction manager and contact being awarded