Why price war??
Margma companies control 65% of world market. Should talk and stabilise ASP and benefit all. Hope they will make some kind of announcements to calm all.

Was checking the Covid cases worldwide..
Surprised to see the current ACTIVE cases are at its highest of about 19.5m cases.
This is much higher than the last 3 waves which peaked at about 18.6m cases.
Hope the coming winter and opening up will not make it lot worse.

Check it out at worldometer..

Europe region faces 700,000 more deaths by March

The WHO said it expected "high or extreme stress" in intensive care units in 49 countries of its Europe region in March

A further 700,000 people could die of Covid by March in Europe and parts of Asia, the World Health Organization has warned.

The death toll already exceeds 1.5 million in the 53 countries of what the WHO terms as its Europe region.

The WHO warned of "high or extreme stress" in intensive care units in 49 of the nations by March 2022.

Europe is facing a surge in cases, prompting Austria to return to lockdown and others to consider fresh measures.

A number of countries - including France, Germany and Greece - could also soon make booster jabs a requirement for their citizens to be considered fully vaccinated.

But several countries have seen fierce protests against new measures. The Netherlands saw several nights of rioting over a partial lockdown.

US Covid rising again..

US Covid infections rising again as upper midwest sees biggest jump
Increase comes ahead of Thanksgiving as families gather in homes, and as winter approaches, forcing people indoors
The waiting area at a vaccination site at the Minneapolis convention center in Minnesota on 4 November.

America’s Covid-19 infections are climbing again, and could soon hit a weekly average of 100,000 cases a day as daily case reports increase more than 20% across the upper midwest.

The fresh worsening of the coronavirus pandemic in the US comes as temperatures cool during the approach of winter, forcing people indoors where the virus is believed to spread more readily and may presage another wave.

It is also happening ahead of the Thanksgiving national holiday where tens of millions of Americans are expected to travel all over the country as families gather together in homes for the annual feast.
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With medical authorities struggling to get adult vaccination rates above 60% nationally, the states first to experience the onset of winter – Michigan and Minnesota – lead the country “by a significant margin in recent cases per capita”, according to analysis by the New York Times.

Glove reached bottom and trend back up.
Ban news are being recycled.. should be discounted long ago.
After profit taking, Supermax will reach for the sky..

I believe glove has bottomed already...
Hold and ride the high waveeeee.. eee

FACTS cannot be hidden for too long...

MQ Research believes large-cap Malaysia glove makers have a 25-35% production-cost advantage over China peers. MQ Research initiates on Malaysia glove manufacturers as valuations turn attractive despite average selling prices (ASP) in flux.

All three glove makers in MQ Research coverage are trading at an enterprise value per share (EV/share) below pre-pandemic levels. If shares decline a further 10-15% - which MQ Research believes to be the absolute bottom. MQ Research sees an attractive entry point. ASPs are quickly declining (currently US$35-40 vs. mid-21 US$85-90 per l000 pieces), and MQ Research top pick Kossan differentiated product mix shields it from potential global oversupply. Kossan is trading at a steep discount to peers (post-pandemic PER discount to TopG/Hartalega of ~15%/ 50%) and at about half their pre-pandemic EV/share.

Production cost advantage over China/new entrants
China:
MQ Research estimates that China glove manufacturers currently have 25-35% higher production costs vs. large-scale Malaysia manufacturers due to higher fuel and labour costs. If global oversupply occurs, and prices continue to decline, MQ Research believes Malaysian large-scale manufacturers will be the last to turn unprofitable. However, MQ Research expects China producers to continue to add capacity until costs normalise despite downward pressure on margins.

New entrants:
MQ Research expects newer entrants in glove manufacturing to quickly become unprofitable as ASPs dive below production cost. Newer glove producers have an estimated production cost of US$35-40 per &lsquo 000 pieces (vs. existing players of US$20-23).
MQ Research believes newer players will either abandon expansion plans or exit the industry altogether.

Worse qtr is likely behind TG.
US ban + MCO + 60% labour restriction in last qtr.
We shall all know soon..

Top Glove Corp Bhd caps its 30th anniversary in 2021 with an enhanced and even stronger commitment to its environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices.

The company said it continued to upkeep of its position for the third year running on the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices (DJSI) under the Emerging Markets category, while reiterating a strong sustainability focus in its newly-released integrated annual report for fiscal year 2021.

Top Glove is one of three Malaysian companies, aside from new additions Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd and MISC Bhd, to be included on the prestigious DJSI, marking its third year running on the index.

The company said it was also the only Malaysian healthcare manufacturing company, and one of three healthcare industry companies to be included on this year's DJSI under the Emerging Markets category.

The assessment covers ESG dimensions that include corporate governance; supply chain management, operational eco efficiency, climate strategy, occupational health and safety, labour practices and human rights, among others.

We congratulate Top Glove for being included in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) for Emerging Markets. A DJSI distinction reflects being a sustainability leader in your industry.

"The record number of companies participating in the 2021 S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment is testament to the growing movement for ESG disclosure and transparency," S&P Global ESG Research global head Manjit Jus said in a statement today.

Meanwhile, in its recently-released 2021 annual report, the world's largest manufacturer of gloves outlined its efforts to step up its ESG initiatives.

The company had declared 2021 as Top Glove's Year of ESG and established ambitious interim targets to be attained by 2025 as it works towards a net zero carbon roadmap and target setting.

"Under the company's 2021 environmental highlights within the Integrated Annual Report, Top Glove detailed progress in carbon emission reduction at its factories. Additionally, the company aims to achieve zero carbon emissions at its water treatment plants by 2022 and at its office premises and warehouses by 2025.

"Further, the company aims to reduce 25 per cent of carbon emission intensity by 2025, against a base year of 2021," it said.

MARGMA or TG should clarify JPM wrong assumptions.
Hope it will come very soon..

Anyone can try guess what is TG coming results?
It could be a surprise correct??

No sell.. no buy.
Waiting to go in BIG..

JPM report disclaimers on TP are all happening..

1. Cut or slowed capacities expansion
2. China competition in trouble
3. USD moving up against RM

Unforeseen factors
4. Pandemic wave 4 and 5 happening
5. Dow jones major correction
6. HK listing approval

Dont sell cheap for RSS buy back.
Let's all.unite.

Check out USD trend.. moving up from Jan low. When the major correction comes, smart money will run back to USD and medical stocks. Coming soon.
JPM knows the game.
Dont let RSS cover cheap.

All these China companies build factories using debts. Imagine making losses with every pc of gloves sold and lot of loans and interests to service.

Malaysian glovers expand with huge profits made over the last 18 months. Raw materials are readily available. They control more than 65% and have economy of scale.
Clients are also long term partners.
Very soon the China factories will close down if they fight by pricing low.
Time to accumulate at this level..
PE below 3? For how long??

Supermax results are above mkt expectation.
Many analysts did not fully appreciate the increased capacities.
Soon they will change their TP for all glove companies.

Lowered ASP is a given.
But it cannot be lower than production costs.
At JPM costs assumption, many new players and China factories need to close shop.. Atm, many companies expansion plans are already put on hold.

Abstract from Supermax results report..
Moving forward, the company sees demand to continue to increase but global glove selling prices are decreasing. The demand for gloves as a PPE remains strong as the world continues to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hope the glove companies can come out to dispute the JPM assumptions. Many glove companies reported and my channels checks said ASP are about USD35 to USD40 per 1000 pcs and still much higher than precovid.. JPM tell lies??

My research shown Thai and China glove companies are all in trouble. They likely phased out or cut down capacities.
USD are also strengthening against RM.
All these will move glove price upward.

Bro and sis, fear not, better check it all out.
No panic, no sell.
Dont let RSS buy back cheap.
Time to accumulate.

Those who hold recovery stocks will dump with Dow jones fall.
Funds to switch to oversold sectors including healthcare.
Watch it happen soon...

Last qtr results likely be the worse qtr due to US ban, MCO and 60% restriction.
We are going to see better qoq results.. thos will be a trigger for limit up.
Analysts will use coming results to shout BUY BUY BUY..
Time to accumulate bit by bit.

Hopefully Marmga can help clarify some wrong assumptions.
Anyway conditions for changing bearish outlook are there already...
Expansion slowed down, new entrants exiting, weaken ringgits etc...

JP Morgan also outlined risks to its bearish sector call which includes a sharp cut in planned capacity expansion which reduces price competition risk, and unexpected changes in nitrile and natural rubber prices which could uplift glove prices from their current lows.

Further challenges to its sector call would be a consistent step-up in dividend payout and balance sheet management, a substantial depreciation of the ringgit that would improve profits as gloves are sold in US dollar terms.

The exit of new entrants cutting oversupply risk and unforeseeable factors driving a valuation re-rating could also see glove makers’ prices move upwards too, the analysts said.

Read again JPM report ast few sentences .. they mentioned price will move up when these situations happen. Imo, its happening.. good to check.

JP and all their kakis are covering ther RSS.. check it out.

Very funny.. TG got shorted due to higher taxes??
I thought the same ppl said ASP dropped a lot and TG cannot do well?
Oversold until so irrational.
Greedy when fear is so thick.

Supermax will issue a clarification to calm investors.
Then followed by their results.

Results reporting season coming soon ..
Will the results beat analysts expectation?
Will the low ASP expected by many people materialize?
Just hold tight.

Supermax losses will be a gain for the other glove companies like TG if they can resolve and comply with labour issues reqd.

.
Global Nitrile Gloves Market Trajectory & Analytics Report 2021-2026 -
Business Wire
Oct 12, 2021

Global Nitrile Gloves Market to Reach $57.1 Billion by 2026

Amid the COVID-19 crisis, the global market for Nitrile Gloves estimated at US$14.1 Billion in the year 2020, is projected to reach a revised size of US$57.1 Billion by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 23.3% over the analysis period. Powder-Free, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is projected to grow at a 24.8% CAGR to reach US$59.9 Billion by the end of the analysis period.

After a thorough analysis of the business implications of the pandemic and its induced economic crisis, growth in the Powdered segment is readjusted to a revised -2.8% CAGR for the next 7-year period. This segment currently accounts for a 9.6% share of the global Nitrile Gloves market.

Full report:
https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20211011005578/global-nitrile-gloves-market-trajectory-analytics-report-2021-2026-researchandmarketscom

Funds are very much into Top glove..
EPS 6.28% (1 year ago was 5%)
Public bank and related funds 6%
Vanguard, Blackrock, Eastspring, Northern Trust, TOBAM, Causeway Capital etc 15%

Why are the funds heavily vested in TG???

All glove companies are making a lot over the last 1.5 years, very cash rich after clearing their loans.
Many are expanding using extraordinary profits to drive next level of growth.
Some may venture into other products or biz making use of their assets.

Compare them with new players or China based gloves companies who need funding and loans to enter the biz. Check out their announcements..

Demand is not going down.
Supplies will be moderated to ensure all can be profitable.
Who will likely can make it if there are prolonged price war?
Current price are in oversold territory..

RSS shares has been dropping shown shorts are covering quietly.
Meanwhile Singapore n US based funds are buying.
TA can see chart flattening.
Good signs.

This is a top glove forum.. stick to it bro..
Make it useful and beneficial for all.

Can see shorts starting to cover bit by bit..
Current PE is cheap sale 70% off.
Supermx next QR may turn out to be a pleasant surprise.
Analysts expect huge drop in ASP and profits but from past records, first quarter results seems always good for Supermx.
End of month we will know.

Wondered who still selling at this low level.. price dropped almost 10 to 2.78.. Public bank and related funds holding 460m shares.
Vanguard and Blackrock also hold hundreds of million shares.

Fundamentals will win for stocks.
Those who are able to hold without fearing or just ignoring noises will huat. Vested today again.

TA looks very good for a strong limit UP.
Akan datang !!

From the list i got, Blackrock, Vanguard, Eastspring, Northern Trust, Public Berhad and many others own TONNES of top gloves.. All waiting to huat!!!

Funds and Institutions are buying up while retailers and shorts are selling.
The big funds have accumulated close to 20%. The cheaper it goes, the more they buy.
Ask why??

The chinese companies cannot fulfill promise of delivery and expansion plans are curtailed by low ASP due to their own making.
The chinese companies are ill prepared to win the glove market and will go under.
Was told many Bursa glove companies are still exporting to China.. ask why??

China's Energy Crisis Is Hitting Everything From iPhones to Milk...
October 8, 2021

The hit from China’s energy crunch is starting to ripple throughout the globe, hurting everyone from Toyota Motor Corp. to Australian sheep farmers and makers of cardboard boxes.

The extreme electricity shortage caused by soaring prices of coal in the world’s largest exporter is set to hurt China’s own growth, and the knock-on impact to supply chains could crimp a global economy struggling to emerge from the pandemic.

The timing couldn’t be worse, with the shipping industry already facing congested supply lines that are delaying deliveries of clothes and toys for the year-end holidays. It also comes just as China starts its harvest season, raising concerns over sharply higher grocery bills.

THE GLOVE SUPPLIES FROM CHINA WILL BE AFFECTED AS WELL.
FACTORIES THERE ARE HIT BY POWER CRUNCH, RAW MATERIALS, TRANSPORTATION AND DELIVERY DELAY..

What got pressed down for so long irrationally WILL spring back furiously. Just wait for a TRIGGER..

While there are so many ppl claiming ASP dropped to pre pandemic and over supplies persist due to China production spikes.. these are all forecasts and projection by analysts..
But in reality it will not come true. China production are still a pipe dream due to power outrage and low or no profits if they carry out their plans.

Pandemic become endemic, demand will continue to be higher as the new norm needs more PPE and gloves.

<\Many local institutions are selling. BUT foreign funds are stocking and buying up. Singapore and US based funds are increasing their stake at these low prices. Check it out all the fund websites.

TG over sold, over shorted.
Based on chart, trend reversal coming. Investors likely switch from recovery to medical and gloves.
Hold tight.

Dropped so much due to all bad news coming together creating fear.
US ban resolved, shipping restart, demand coming back due to D variant..
Analysts ASP assumptions of US$22 or US$25 for 2022 are wrong.
It cannot be lower than new players costs of about US$38. Likely to stabilise at least US$40 to US$45 per 1000pcs.

Time to reload?
Time for a gap up soon?
Coming soon...

Yes, the local glove companies controlling 67% mkt can work together on the minimum pricing. If all dont cut prices, all still enjoy good margins.
Hope they realise it sooner than later.

Eventually a business is good and sustainable only if they can sell their products at a profit.
Low Capex for Mah Sing. How about the others?

Mah Sing costs is about US$38 per 1000 pcs.
What should be the selling price?
Margin need to be at least 20% or more ??

This is common sense.
Any shop owner selling sweets can tell you.

Mkt has oversold TG and glove sector..
JPM has conflicted interest when they write these reports.
Soon they will take back their words and paint another pic.. once they have cover their shorts.

Singapore has 83% vaccinated yet cases are running up to new record level everyday. Hospitals are getting filled to the max. More care centre likely to be set up.

This is happening in many countries.. go check it out.

Go check hospitals, restaurants, healthcare service and airlines etc..
Many countries are adhering to higher level of hygiene reqtm..

ASP stabilised and then goes up when all new and high cost companies go bust or close shop..

Pandemic over??
Demands have been reported to grow from about 10% to 15% per annum. Pandemic and new hygiene requirement will further drive demand..
Go check the MARGMA and WHO report..

Do not believe the analyst reports.
ASP will stabilise and then go up when all new players close shop.
Check out all the new players operation, costs and selling prices, you will know why..
Reversal coming sooner than later.