Looks like EPF still selling

Open mkt sale till 1.93, any balance give to MGO party at 1.92 if EPF is desperate. Offer valid only for 21 days. After that all bets r off. So EPF will make its move soon, notice volume increasing with share price decreasing. Theoretically 1.92 should hold but mkt being irrational & only time will tell.
My bet is after offer lapses, it will shoot up very fast.

Unconditional........means all conditions for the share purchase have been met.
Seller's shares previously had some caveats, buyer cleared all of it.

MGO at 1.92 does not mean share price must go there or it's a bottom for it.

IF EPF so wishes they can sell limit down price too cos not enough buyer support
China buyer can buy at 1.92 or lower without increasing his takeover price.
So EPF will try not to sell lower. EPF knows that it's the best time he can unload all its shares cos of mkt interest

At this vol sales EPF can take less than 1 month to finish. It should have abt 20m shares balance

Look at petronm results after the takeover, every most qtrs also show profit, last 2 yrs very good profit. Shell's results could be the same too. Just have to wait.

MGO offer will be for 21days, after that China co can buy from met to increase their stake. Hopefully EPF sell all to them so no more open mkt throwing.

My view.......Shell is a foreign controlled & owned company. Perhaps they allocate more expenses of their other overseas controlled companies to take advantage of lower corporate taxes elsewhere i.e. like transfer pricing.
Only time will tell if indeed this is the case
Apologies for the NTA, currency mix up as I did not read it in full. Anyway I still believe it's the NTA case as the buyer should hedge on the currency.

Look at petronm........formally esso
Every qtr show profit & both in same business

Matter of time Shell will catch up in the crude oil run up, my bet 3-5 when EPF stops selling

MGO was 1.80 when the deal was announced on feb16 when the state price was around 5.00, that time the NTA was 1.92.

China company announced that they will keep the listing status, that's why the authorities did not block it otherwise it will be not fair for the minorities.

China company have to offer MGO as per rules, nobody is stupid enough to accept hence the MGO will fail. Shell is not a distressed company so no worries.

When mkt starts to believe that the MGO cannot succeed then the share price will run, now maybe another 10 or 20 sen down due to absence of buyers. Main seller is EPF who have been selling from 7.50 until present time. EPF Has been depressing the mkt price.

The NTA has increased from 1.92 till 2.67 hence deal has been revised from 1.80 to 1.92 . It should have been 2.67 but perhaps deal was signed then when the NTA was 1.92 so it's fair to the buyer.

Independent Advisor has already been appointed by Shell to advise the minority. Obviously only one conclusion i.e. DEAL IS NOT FAIR TO THE MINORITIES & SHOULD BE REJECTED.

However this will not effect the deal between Shell & the China Company.
Live long & prosper

Angie.....u right, we need one O&G company to turnaround

Vitac........mgt give good guidance but mkt show otherwise. Say if oil don't drop to 20-30 usd per barrel, oil companies would do well. So no one can predict when it will fall or recover. Business must go on until they recover or go bust. Investors should stay out of sectors where it's bad business. It's our fault for buying the shares, it's our fault for believing that recovery will happen. Just invest in unit trusts so it's well diversified, share mkt may not be suitable for all.

Madhu ....kraken already sail away

Bumi will supply the FPSO to Husky-CNOOC Madura under a ten-year contract worth US$1.18 billion.

Ageetkumar...........Keppel Offshore & Marine’s wholly-owned subsidiary Keppel Shipyard is said to be on track to deliver a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel to Armada Madura, a joint venture between Shapoorji Pallonji and Bumi Armada Berhad.

The spread-moored FPSO unit was named Karapan Armada Sterling III during a naming ceremony held earlier this month at Keppel Shipyard.

The FPSO will be deployed to the Madura BD Field in Madura Strait East Java which is operated by Husky-CNOOC Madura Limited (HCML).

EPF is holding less than 5% now, so even if they sell, they do not need to disclose anymore. That's the law.

Don't play call warrants......u can't win the banker

It's an international norm

But more apparent in Malaysia cos I personally checked with many friends & some remisiers on the status of their clients.

One more very interesting fact the remisiers mentioned is that more then 90% of their online clients lose money. That includes stock & futures players. Online clients only interested in low brokerage but can afford to lose big money. It's like penny wise pound foolish.

80% goes to the 20% pocket. Only 2% goes to the retailers' pockets i.e. That means out of every 100 retailers playing the mkt only 2 actually making money. That's the study, so ask any of yr friends & u will be surprised that the statistics is correct.

I'm recovering old losses. Hopefully I don't run out of time

Stock 80/20 Rule

80% lose, 20% make money in the mkt

From the 20% , 10% r from the institutions, 5% syndicates & BALANCE 5% RETAILERS
From the 5%, 3% insiders 2% u & i .

So only 2 % of us the retailers make money. 1% never lost money at all in the mkt & the balance 1% recovering old losses.

Where in the game u in?

Cheers

EPF will come in again when contract flows starts again in the oil n gas sectors. They now provide liquidity to insiders just when massive funds liquidated their holding of FGV, look at the price now when situations change.

Chokra........I was not taking any swipe at you. In fact I'm very happy that u wrote a very interesting piece, was just disagreeing on certain points in case u missed it. Not many people like u is out there, so pls do carry on . Many r silent readers who do appreciate intelligent comments & discourse. A lot of retail investors have no idea what they r putting their money into. So don't worry what people think of u as there r lots of moles working for syndicates in the forums

I have to disagree on a couple of points in yr statement.

1. PN 17 - It does not mean that liabilities r in excess of assets.

In the case of Perisai, it's NTA is 52 sen which means if the company is liquidated, all ordinary shareholders gets repaid 52 sen per share that the hold after paying all bankers including Bond Holders. But in the real world, since Perisai is under duress (Having cash flow problems) the assets will be sold under different circumstances i.e. Forced sale values which under extreme cirmstances under 50-70% discount . Please do remember the impairment for most of the assets have happened at last year end so this time around the forced sale discount may not be much lower.

2. Perisai is facing cash flow problems, having overstretched on asset purchase which r not generating income. If those assets can be liquidated at near purchase prices, bond holders cane be repaid in full but this will take some time . Bond holders want their money now but that was impossible hence default was the best option.

3. Perisai will be under court protection so bond holders may not have total control of the company but control of only those assets which were financed by the bonds.

I believe the bond holders know that they can get their money back in full without taking any haircut cos Perisai's NTA is of better quality & liquidation is the best option for them.

Not every PN17 company situation is the same. 2 examples of extremity

1. MAA cash rich PN17 company

2. Trive (Etitech) GN1/PN17 - reorganised, assets were of poor quality, bankers converted loans to shares & warrants, after reorganised, slowly wrote off more no value assets assets, showed 30m sales just to prop up the balance sheet but money still not collected after 1 yr, now almost all the old directors have resigned, directors hold no shares, rolling the shares in the mkt, soon will slip to PN 17 again if no business plan

Fyi ------- I hold no shares in any of these companies

That's mkt rates according to supply & demand, go check what the rates were when oil was USD100-120. Nobody said UMWOG only supplier & fixes the price. Read properly b4 tembak.

Oil rigs to be contracted to Petronas b4 prices rise
Contract per day now USD80,000-100,000 per day
Later when crude oil rises it will be USD150,000-250,000 per day

Or someone sell to someone

Check yr online stock platform under off mkt for the stock
Otherwise see the newspapers tomorrow

Major shh issues now

Tq, but my question not addressed / answered

Off mkt trade 50m shares at 2.2 sen

EPF not giving up, just selling some shares everyday. There is no pain for EPF.
Also no other big investor will come, all the local funds are fully invested. Retail investors r not my concern, So my question is Why EPF is selling at these low prices?

When EPF finish selling, then it will fly

Why is EPF selling at such low prices despite the fact that Khazanah is the biggest shareholder plus other GLC funds holding big chunk too? Any ideas/views

all in at 0.88

oil price up but if do not translate to contract wins, then its useless
that's what is happening now, exception is only sapura kencana

Its a nice trade-able stock, a safety sock can be MHB

my target is 1.20-1.50 for year 2017.

half in at 0.88

if u take out the parent, its financially distressed
but my view is that its gonna win some major contracts (most probably from Petronas) within the next one year & it may be the saviour.

With crude oil on the uptrend, umwog may have the chance to offload some oil rigs to pare down its borrowings

Sold out all at 0.89

Bought all in at 0.88

It's time of the year for K1 again
Usually 3 & 4 qtr results r better. So investors please take note.

Took profit, oil stocks r very risky, u never know when bad news comes out but only when too late.
Don't play with fire, buy those oil stocks which r strong or have strong backers.

Armada main shh having personal problems, so let the buyer beware

Go genting n gamble better instead of call w, yr money cannot expire in genting but can on the call warrants

If u buy call warrants, u need luck & prayer. Issuer laughing at yr stupidity

Will only move on 2 main issues
1. EPF must stop selling
2. Must announce a few project wins

If these 2 not resolved, shh will feel more pain

Sold all Armada at 0.715

buyer of last resort may be the only hope of a deal
otherwise business as usual

Location of warm stacked rigs
2 in Labuan & 2 in Batam

4 contracted out, do your own research to find out where. Making money from stock mkt is not easy without putting any effort. Receipe for disaster is relying on people who know jack shit & the fraudsters.

4 contracted out & 4 warm stacked, your info is incorrect & misleading.
Obviously will still be a loss & the magnitude will depend whether there will be provisions. AllianceDBS research is misleading but read carefully about their disclaimers.
Read Maybank Research

It's scary to invest/trade like this

UEMS (Outperform, TP: RM1.85),