I assumed this dispute was not between Petronas and Sarawak; it is between the federal power vs state power. Various analyses said that Malaysia could go bankrupt if Sarawak wins. We are affected as well, especially those who are contributing to EPF. EPF and Amanah are the biggest shareholders; moreover, 20% to 30% of federal government revenue comes from Petronas.
Expected to see a massive rally only if Petronas wins the dispute. Institutional will rush in buying O&G counters, especially Petronas, and Velesto is not left behind.
China already agreed to stop buying from Iran after Trump takes office. The penalty for non-compliance is all China businesses to be kicked out from US, no license will be issued => Oil price expected to go up.
Now the hot money is flowing out of Velesto after the latest QR. Oil prices are likely to fall after Trump takes over. Lowering oil prices is one way Trump says he can control the inflation. In an October 18 speech in Detroit, he pledged to "cut energy prices in half within 12 months" of taking office, emphasizing a commitment to "frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill." Likely, some of US O&G companies will be benefited from this target. But not Malaysia O&G stocks. Sad.
Here is a quick recap (Edge market interview Velesto CEO).
1. Velesto sent Naga 5 for 55 days of a major maintenance program in Singapore. Naga 5 just returned back from 2 years of integrated drilling work for Hess Carigali, which was completed earlier than the actual assigned date (👏👏👏). Naga 5 will be assigned to a new project in mid-January 2025 onwards, as the group is in the final stage of securing a 2-year new contract. (expected new contract announcement soon). Naga 5 is free from any major maintenance work for another 5 years once this SPS is completed.
2. For now, three of its jack-up rigs are under contracts that will run until February 2026. Of the remaining three, Naga 3 and Naga 8 are bidding for jobs from late 2025 onwards, as the two rigs are scheduled for dry docking in the first half of next year. The maintenance process, dubbed special periodical survey (SPS), will take about two to three months before the rig can resume operations. That means Naga 3 and 8 are out of a job from Jan to March. With two SPS to be conducted next year, Megat explains that each SPS capex amounts to between US$10 million (RM45 million) and US$20 million. And the capex would eat into Velesto’s earnings in FY2025. On top of that, there will be a vacuum in earnings when two rigs are dry-docking at the yard.
3. Velesto has upgraded Naga 5 and Naga 6 to allow them to conduct multiple scopes of activities simultaneously, thus reducing charter days for clients. Naga 6 will also be installed with a robotic arm by 1Q2025, which automates some of the pipe installation process. The company is already exploring autonomous drilling.
4. CEO Megat Zariman said that Velesto is also looking at partnerships to expand into other rig-related projects such as decommissioning that will be a new revenue stream for the company.
5. The group is keeping a close watch on the upcoming Petronas Activity Outlook, which had previously indicated that up to 13 rigs would be required in 2026.
6. The average DCR in 2014 was high at US$151,000, against around US$115,000 currently.
7. The past two industry downturns dragged Velesto, which was known as UMW Oil & Gas Corp Bhd then, into severe financial stress, mainly because its new rigs were unable to secure enough chartered contracts. Megat certainly does not want history to repeat itself by not expanding fleet size aggressively and reducing dependency on local contracts. At least the CEO is aware of the importance of securing a long-term contract and not solely depending on PETRONAS 👏👏👏👏.
DJThong, this is your answer. Normally I don't reply to silly, brainless questions because I don't like debating or arguing... it's a waste of my time.
When asked whether the dynamics between Petronas and the states of Sabah and Sarawak could further weigh on market outlook, Megat says, “A lot of statements are being made, but at the end of the day it is about the capex that will be rolled out in the next three years. Worried PETRONAS will reduce the capital expenditure for upstream. As for now, Velesto still relies on PETRONAS contracts.
Petronas Hess dumped Velesto bid of 150K DayRate and Guess what Petronas hire a Singapore Jack-up rig a few Days after dumping Velesto for Sarawak job in 2025 ---I think Petronas is paying $150K dayrate for Singapore Rig ( current market price )---Velesto has to mine contract outside Petronas Control
Sorry, Mavisdrac, nobody dares to say that. Even all IB previously said TP 0.30 but now change topic. The stock market is unpredictable. We can give you some rough ideas; the rest depends on you. Trade wisely. Do your own research before buying and selling.
I think TA is one of the lousy research centers. They did not fully digest the true story. Naga 8 was not suspended due to Velesto client cancelling the order. Actual Naga 8 completed drilling work in advance, or, in a simple form of words, we can say they completed it before the actual due/agreement date. The contract for Naga 8 was issued on 1st November 2023, and the commencing date is on 19 April 2024 until 18 October 2025 (1 year 6 months), but the Naga 8 crew completed the extraction work within 8 months. That means they are already 11 months ahead. This will give an opportunity to send Naga 8 for a special SPS survey. The contract amount is USD 74 million. They will receive the same amount even if they drag it until 18 October 2025...which is better, to complete the job quickly with efficiency and receive the full payment or drag the drilling job slowly, whereby it will swallow their operation cost?
I don't know how TA does the analysis... shop lot IB.
Sarawak premier Abang Johari Openg has revealed that a solution has been reached over the dispute between Sarawak and Petronas over the rights to oil and gas (O&G) resources in and around the state, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim set to announce it soon.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
prudentinvestor
4,515 posts
Posted by prudentinvestor > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse
No reason why its share price should drop to this level. Time is ripe for a sharp rebound.