Lehman collapse on 15/9/2008 triggering subprime meltdown.

Taann's share price (adjusted for right/bonus issue effect) before and after Lehman's collapse :

on 12/9/2008 (pre-lehman collapse) $ 2.68
on 27/2/2009 (5 months after Lehman) $1.08 (hit the lowest point)
on 31/7/2009 (10 months after lehman) $2.31
on 2/4/2010 (19 months after lehman) $2.94
on 8/4/2011 (31 months after lehman) $4.56

Taann's share price took just about a year to recover to pre Lehman, thereafter it surge 4 times from the low point in tandem with CPO price.

CPO price before and after Lehman's collapse :
on 12/9/2008 (pre-lehman) $2,336
on 28/10/2008 (1 mth after Lehman) $1,410 (hit the Lowest point)
Avg Nov 2008 $1,540
Avg Dec 2008 $1,550
Ang Jan 2009 $1,850
Avg Feb 2009 $1,840
Ang Mar 2009 $2,020
Ang Apr 2009 $2,454

CPO took only about 7 months to recover after lehman. Thereafter, CPO surged to 3,742 in Dec 2010, $3,930 in Feb 2011.

Don't say things that you are not sure.
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Posted by casanwk > Jan 6, 2022 8:50 AM | Report Abuse

It takes 3 years to recover
Only at rm7 high..

In all past financial or economic crisis Asian Financial crisis, 911, Lehman collapse, all stocks including CPO/plantation stocks itumbled as knee jerk reaction . But CPO/plantation stocks staged the quickest and strong recovery. Bear in mind , good time or bad time , the demand for edible oil remain strong .

@Titan3322, With very strong company’s fundamentals and very robust edible oil market, I won’t want to bet Taann share price to go reverse gear to $3.2O or below $3.10 as you recently anticipated .
Sharp price correction can still happen if sharp drop of Down Jone cause the panic . When that happens, no stock is safe .

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 5): Crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives climbed higher at Wednesday’s closing on concerns over weak output.

Palm oil trader David Ng said the low stock level continued to lift sentiment higher coupled with news report that the government will implement the biodiesel programme by the end of the year, which is positive for CPO prices.

“Given that the first quarter is typically the low production season for palm oil, Malaysia is currently experiencing heavier-than-usual rainfall in some of the oil palm regions and the current labour shortage issue remains unresolved,” it said.

The benchmark palm oil contract — March 2022 rallied above RM5,000 a tonne to RM5,036 a tonne, up RM122.

Meanwhile, CPO futures contract for January 2022 gained RM178 to RM5,437 a tonne, February 2022 rose RM184 to RM5,288 a tonne, April 2022 went up RM126 to RM4,836 a tonne, May 2022 gained RM123 to RM4,677 a tonne and June 2022 climbed RM123 to RM4,550 a tonne.

The physical CPO price for January South went up RM120 to RM5,450 a tonne from RM5,330 a tonne on Monday.

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 5): Crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives climbed higher at Wednesday’s closing on concerns over weak output.

Palm oil trader David Ng said the low stock level continued to lift sentiment higher coupled with news report that the government will implement the biodiesel programme by the end of the year, which is positive for CPO prices.

“Given that the first quarter is typically the low production season for palm oil, Malaysia is currently experiencing heavier-than-usual rainfall in some of the oil palm regions and the current labour shortage issue remains unresolved,” it said.

The benchmark palm oil contract — March 2022 rallied above RM5,000 a tonne to RM5,036 a tonne, up RM122.

Meanwhile, CPO futures contract for January 2022 gained RM178 to RM5,437 a tonne, February 2022 rose RM184 to RM5,288 a tonne, April 2022 went up RM126 to RM4,836 a tonne, May 2022 gained RM123 to RM4,677 a tonne and June 2022 climbed RM123 to RM4,550 a tonne.

The physical CPO price for January South went up RM120 to RM5,450 a tonne from RM5,330 a tonne on Monday.

Kinuxian, nobody can be certain if CPO price will be softer from Q2 onwards. If it does, how low will it go from today closing price of almost $5,400 pmt ??
I think CPO price is increasingly more sensitive to the production/supply of the other competing oil namely Soya, rapeseed and sunflower oil from US , Brazil ,Argentina , China etc, the major producers.
Bearing in mind that the competing oil crop are weather vulnerable. Amid climate change and more frequent extreme weather, the risk of heatwave, drought or flood affecting harvest is very high in 2022 and beyond.
As for CPO , we can take that production volume will not increase in 2022 due to unresolved labour issue , shortage of fertilizer, lack of new investment for past 3 years etc.
In last 2 weeks , CPO stage a very spectacular rebound from slightly below $5,000 to about $5,400 this evening ,simply due to fear of some CPO production hiccup caused by ongoing flood and fear of lower soya harvest due to anticipated drought in Brazil and Argentina.

I think it only takes another weather havoc during the 2022 planting season in US or South America or Europe or china to keep CPO above $5,000 throughout 2022.

Just my personal view .

@CCWong, but Bplant’s copper is still selling at scrap metal price (share price) Hehehe…

AnsonLiew, True or not ?

It's going to be a extremely robust year for Bplant :

1. CPO remain strong
2. Exceptional gain of $323 mil or 14.4 sen/share from Kulai Yong land
3. Exceptional gain of $700 mil ?? from the pending disposal of whole Sawarak estates (of 26,526 ha of which 10,300 ha planted . total book value only $57 mil)
4. Additional cash 0f $429 mil from Kulai Yong disposal
5. Additional cash of $700 mil from Swk estate disposal if successful
6. Further disposal of Commercially viable freehold land in west Malaysia to take advantage of RPFT waiver?

Keep in mind of these positive factors in 2022/23

Investors of TDM must be aware of the lawsuit file by Indonesia against the company for almost RM300 mil as reported in the Edge on 30/12/21. Hope it can be finally resolved with not much injury to the company.

@titan332,
The only variable in my calculation is the Estimated EPS Q4 2021 which I stated 25.5 sen. I am convinced that it is realistic. Pls share your calculation if you think it is unrealistic.

It is also not true that except TAANN all other plantation counters are in " sick bed".

Gain in 1 month (ie 6/12/21 to 5/1/22) for the other plantation counters are as below : (price 6/12/21 , price 5/1/22, % Gain)

1. Taann $3.32, $3.63, 9.3%
2. KMLoong $1.51, $1.71, 13.2%
3. Cepat $0.65, $0.71 9.2%
4. MHC $0.88, $0.96 9.1%
5. Bplant $0.68, $0.73 7.3%
6. SOP $3.50 $3.75 7.1%
7. THPlnt $0.60 $0.64 6.7%
8. Swkpltn $2.40 $2.53 5.4%

Dividend that went ex during the period are added to the price 5/1/22 to give true picture eg Taann, Bplant, SOP, Swkpltn.

I must say that the Malaysian market is quite sicK, as sick as the govt!

Simepltn will fly only when Stxpxd EPF stock selling down to dampen the sentiment!

@joerakmo, MHC only pay one dividend a year which is soon after Q4 result is released .
For Dividend with respect to FY 2021, it will be likely be announced in Feb/March 2022.
For FY 2021, the company is expected to earn 20.45 sen. What you think the dividend will be (final and/or special) ?

My guess is 10 sen.

@joerakmo, GST refund is not a P&L item and hence has no impact on profit .
It only increase the company’s cashflow . What you said can be very misleading to readers who have no accounting knowledge.

CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q..
KMLOONG's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 11.22 sen
Est EPS Q4 21 is 5 sen
FY21 EPS shall be 16.2 sen.
Share price @ 4/1/22 $1.69
PE is( 169/16.2) = 10.4X
% return on share price is (16.2/169 )=9.6%
If dividend payout is 100% same as last year, DY is 9.6%

CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q..
SOP's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 53 sen
Est EPS Q4 21 is 24 sen
FY21 EPS shall be 77 sen.
Share price @ 4/1/22 $3.65
PE is( 365/77) = 4.7X
% return on share price is (77/365 )=28.1%
Even If dividend payout is only 30% (??) DY is aready 8.4%
If dividend payout is 50% (??) , DY is 14%!!
All minority shareholders must attend AGM to demand a clear dividend policy!

CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q..
Cepat 's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 8.64 sen
Est EPS Q4 21 is 4 sen
FY21 EPS shall be 12.64 sen.
Share price @ 4/1/22 69 sen
PE is( 69/12.64) = 5.5X
% return on share price is (12.64/69 )= 18.3%
If dividend payout is 50%, DY is 9.2%

CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q..
HSPLANT's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 16.22 sen
Est EPS Q4 21 is 7.5 sen
FY21 EPS shall be 23.7 sen.
Share price @ 4/1/22 $1.97
PE is( 197/23.7) = 8.3X
% return on share price is (23.7/197)=12%
If dividend payout is 60%, DY is 7.2%

CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q..
THPLANT's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 7.73 sen
Est EPS Q4 21 is 3.5 sen
FY21 EPS shall be 11.23 sen.
Share price @ 4/1/22 63 sen
PE is( 63/11.23) = 5.6X
% return on share price is (11.23/63 )=17.8%
If dividend payout is 30% (??), DY is 5.3%

CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q..
BPLANT's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 6.97 sen
Est EPS Q4 21 is 4.7 sen
FY21 EPS shall be 11.7 sen.
Share price @ 4/1/22 69 sen
PE is( 69/11.7) is 5.9X
% return on share price is (11.7/69 )=17%
If dividend payout is 60%, DY is 10.2%

CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q..
SWPLTN's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 34.15 sen
Est EPS Q4 21 is 16.5 sen
FY21 EPS shall be 50.65 sen.
Share price @ 4/1/22 $240
PE is( 240/50.65) = 4,7X
% return on share price is (50.65/240 )=21%
If dividend payout is 60%, DY is 12.6%

CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q..
TAANN's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 49.6 sen
Est EPS Q4 21 is 25.5 sen
FY21 EPS shall be 75.1 sen.
Share price @ 4/1/22 $3.40
PE is( 340/75.1) = 4,5X
% return on share price is (75.1/340 )=22%
If dividend payout is 60%, DY is 13.2%

CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q..
MHC's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 13.95 sen
Est EPS Q4 21 is 6.5 sen
FY21 EPS shall be 20.45 sen.
Share price @ 4/1/22 92.5 sen
PE is( 92.5/20.45) = 4,5X
% return on share price is (20.45/92.5 )=22%
If dividend payout is 50%, DY is 11%

Don't get me wrong. I am NOT a blind opponent to ESG. Except that OVER PLAYING THE ESG PLOY has resulted soaring energy and food prices , thus persistently high inflation which affect livelihood of middle and low income people.

Of late, Joe Biden repeatedly urged Opec to pump more oil. China/India are asking their miners to dig more coal.

@PlantBull, I have asked Andy Hall for his solution to soaring food prices and millions of poor people globally can't afford to have enough food on the table . He has no answer to my question.

Climate change and extreme weather is going to limit agriculture production globally. Edible oil crop prices will stay elevated for years and benefit oil palm plantations. Will investors continue to ignore high earnings and high DY sector ?

Climate change and extreme weather is going to limit agriculture production globally. Edible oil crop prices will stay elevated for years and benefit oil palm plantations. Will investors continue to ignore high earnings and high DY sector ?

Jan 4): China slashed its fuel export quota by more than half in the first batch of allocations for 2022, highlighting the nation’s strategy of progressively limiting overseas sales.

A total of 13 million tons were issued, including both general trade and tolling issuances, according to refinery officials who have direct knowledge of the matter. That’s 56% less than 29.5 million tons in the same batch for 2021.

“Looks like this year’s total fuel export quota will keep declining,” said Yuntao Liu, analyst with Energy Aspects Ltd., adding that a smaller issuance may boost competition between state refiners and independents.

There’s speculation that China may eliminate product exports by 2025. Should that happen, Asian fuel exporters — in Northeast Asia, Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei — stand to benefit as regional margins will have to rise to make up for lost Chinese barrels, according to a previous estimate by Energy Aspect
—————————/—————————-

From the above , China intends to eliminate export from carbon emitting industry. Steel export (which is high energy consuming , carbon emitting and dirty industry) will also be eliminated. Good for steel manufacturers In Malaysia.
04/01/2022 7:20 PM

Jan 4): China slashed its fuel export quota by more than half in the first batch of allocations for 2022, highlighting the nation’s strategy of progressively limiting overseas sales.

A total of 13 million tons were issued, including both general trade and tolling issuances, according to refinery officials who have direct knowledge of the matter. That’s 56% less than 29.5 million tons in the same batch for 2021.

“Looks like this year’s total fuel export quota will keep declining,” said Yuntao Liu, analyst with Energy Aspects Ltd., adding that a smaller issuance may boost competition between state refiners and independents.

There’s speculation that China may eliminate product exports by 2025. Should that happen, Asian fuel exporters — in Northeast Asia, Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei — stand to benefit as regional margins will have to rise to make up for lost Chinese barrels, according to a previous estimate by Energy Aspect
—————————/—————————-

From the above , China intends to eliminate export from carbon emitting industry. Steel export (which is high energy consuming , carbon emitting and dirty industry) will also be eliminated. Good for steel manufacturers In Malaysia.

Jan 4): China slashed its fuel export quota by more than half in the first batch of allocations for 2022, highlighting the nation’s strategy of progressively limiting overseas sales.

A total of 13 million tons were issued, including both general trade and tolling issuances, according to refinery officials who have direct knowledge of the matter. That’s 56% less than 29.5 million tons in the same batch for 2021.

“Looks like this year’s total fuel export quota will keep declining,” said Yuntao Liu, analyst with Energy Aspects Ltd., adding that a smaller issuance may boost competition between state refiners and independents.

There’s speculation that China may eliminate product exports by 2025. Should that happen, Asian fuel exporters — in Northeast Asia, Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei — stand to benefit as regional margins will have to rise to make up for lost Chinese barrels, according to a previous estimate by Energy Aspect

Jan 4): China slashed its fuel export quota by more than half in the first batch of allocations for 2022, highlighting the nation’s strategy of progressively limiting overseas sales.

A total of 13 million tons were issued, including both general trade and tolling issuances, according to refinery officials who have direct knowledge of the matter. That’s 56% less than 29.5 million tons in the same batch for 2021.

“Looks like this year’s total fuel export quota will keep declining,” said Yuntao Liu, analyst with Energy Aspects Ltd., adding that a smaller issuance may boost competition between state refiners and independents.

There’s speculation that China may eliminate product exports by 2025. Should that happen, Asian fuel exporters — in Northeast Asia, Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei — stand to benefit as regional margins will have to rise to make up for lost Chinese barrels, according to a previous estimate by Energy Aspect

Climate change and extreme weather is going to limit agriculture production globally. Edible oil crop prices will stay elevated for years and benefit oil palm plantations. Will investors continue to ignore high earnings and high DY sector ?

Likely another bumper year for plantations.

CPO stage another surge closing above $5,300/-.
Another bumper year for plantations.

CPO Jan closed above $5,300!
Likely another bumper year for plantations.

Bplant fit the bills.

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 4): There could be a big shift from growth to value stock investing across ASEAN markets which include Malaysia in the second half of 2022 "if the world goes back to normalcy" as the global economy recovers from the impact of Covid-19 pandemic-driven movement restrictions, according to Maybank Kim Eng head of regional equity research Anand Pathmakanthan.

"If there's a switch back to value, [Malaysia's FBM] KLCI should do pretty well as they have all the stable and cyclical stocks with decent [dividend] yields," Anand said on Tuesday (Jan 4, 2022) at a market outlook webinar organised by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd.

In equities investment terminology, growth investing is a strategy in which investors buy shares of companies which are expected to achieve higher growth versus the broader market.

Meanwhile, value investing involves buying equities which are transacted at a discount to their intrinsic worth.

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 4): There could be a big shift from growth to value stock investing across ASEAN markets which include Malaysia in the second half of 2022 "if the world goes back to normalcy" as the global economy recovers from the impact of Covid-19 pandemic-driven movement restrictions, according to Maybank Kim Eng head of regional equity research Anand Pathmakanthan.

"If there's a switch back to value, [Malaysia's FBM] KLCI should do pretty well as they have all the stable and cyclical stocks with decent [dividend] yields," Anand said on Tuesday (Jan 4, 2022) at a market outlook webinar organised by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd.

In equities investment terminology, growth investing is a strategy in which investors buy shares of companies which are expected to achieve higher growth versus the broader market.

Meanwhile, value investing involves buying equities which are transacted at a discount to their intrinsic worth.
———————————————————————————

SOP, TAANN, SWKPLTN,MHC, CEPAT, BPLANT, HSPLTN and many other plantations stocks are high intrinsic value , may see their share price stage a great turnaround this year .
Afterall, investors are not naive to forever ignore high earnings and high dividend yielding stock .

TAANN and many other plantations stocks are presently trading at ridiculously low PE, high DY , high intrinsic value , may see their share price stage a great turnaround this year .
Afterall, investors are not naive to forever ignore high earnings and high dividend yielding stock .

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 4): There could be a big shift from growth to value stock investing across ASEAN markets which include Malaysia in the second half of 2022 "if the world goes back to normalcy" as the global economy recovers from the impact of Covid-19 pandemic-driven movement restrictions, according to Maybank Kim Eng head of regional equity research Anand Pathmakanthan.

"If there's a switch back to value, [Malaysia's FBM] KLCI should do pretty well as they have all the stable and cyclical stocks with decent [dividend] yields," Anand said on Tuesday (Jan 4, 2022) at a market outlook webinar organised by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd.

In equities investment terminology, growth investing is a strategy in which investors buy shares of companies which are expected to achieve higher growth versus the broader market.

Meanwhile, value investing involves buying equities which are transacted at a discount to their intrinsic worth.

After ex- dividend price went up 7 sen at 3.15 pm ie amid bearish market tone (KLCI drop 12 points ). That’s very good sign .

ESG ploy can be played up to one point only . When food prices skyrocketing further and inflicting heavy inflation pain globally, ESG ploy will subsize.

the Bursa Plantation Index is down 10% year-to-date while the CPO price rose 36%.. This could also mean there is huge room for plantation share price to improve when the present extremely poor market sentiment improve .

Don’t need to watch CPO price day to day movement lah….
So long as CPO stay above $4,000 the plantations will still be laughing to the banks.

CPO production in Malaysia and Indonesia will not recover in 2022. Other competing oil crops will face climate change havoc like prolonged drought , extreme heat , flood , tornado etc more frequently and thus affecting production.

@Danny123, why you so blind and ignorant !
Calvin and I are just pointing out the possibility of privatization. Even Lembaga TH also confirmed having ask the IB to look into it .

Mati mati also try to push AYS. For whose benefit??

On 8th Oct 21, I have forecasted BPlant FY21 EPS of 9.6 sen.

With relatively strong production and CPO price for Q4, my revised EPS is 11.70 sen. Based on yesterday’s closing share price of 64sen, the PE is 64/11.7 = 5.47x .
Based on Dividend payout of 60% , total dividend shall be 60%x 11.7 = 7 sen. Thus, DY shall be 7/64 = 11%

Endgame can wait until the cows come home.

Aluminium price is surging lately. Will benefit Alcom