As the power plant is the sole earnings contributor to Jaks currently, Jaks should provide a clear and detail explanation of its decision not to subscribe for the optional 10% interest in the power plant.

This 10% option allows Jaks to acquire additional 10% shareholdings in the power plant at original cost which is equivalent to the investment cost of Jaks' current 30% shareholdings. This option allows Jaks to increase its earnings from the power plant by 33% immediately upon subscription for the remaining 22 years of concession. By letting the option lapse raises the question of bankability of the power plant going forward. Hence, putting the earnings prospect of the current 30% shareholdings in the power plant in doubt.

Not taking up the 10% option is worst than doing equity fund raising to take up the 10% option. This is totally unexpected ! I was wrong to think that RI or PP is the only way to fund the 10% because I never thought that Jaks will let the option lapse ! Initially I thought the worst case scenario is share dilution due to issuance of cheap shares to raise funds. Now Jaks is telling us that the 10% option is not worthy of further investment. DK is totally right about Jaks' difficulty in sourcing fund for the option and RI or PP maybe the only sources of funding. However, I don't think DK had expected Jaks to give up the 10% interest which has a payback period of less than 5 years. I hope it is not another unpleasant surprise. Now we must be honest with ourselves and not just looking for excuses to continue holding on to our investment in Jaks. Something is very wrong with Jaks now.

IR said Jaks will not take up the additional 10% in JHDP due to unfavorable financing terms and conditions. This is certainly a wake up call to all of us. Giving up on a low risk high return investment opportunity due to funding is totally unacceptable. ALP is a smart person and he decided not to take up the option. WHY ?

I have no doubt that Jaks will do more and more PP for the next few years and that is hugely dilutive for retail investors. Jaks IR said no more PP but AGM approved another 10% PP. Jaks has never kept its words. CPO had said no fund raising at low prices. They have no choice but to raise more funds through PP or RI to cover cash shortages. Bank refinancing is getting harder if not impossible for them. My personal opinion is to take advantage of this rally to cut position and buy back later when desirable. Jaks' boss has taken up the remaining PP at 0.18 and has to divest at higher price so as to conserve cash to take up more pp. Doing nothing is not the right solution here. Jaks' liquidity problem is real. It won't just go away because of share price rally.

Jaks has placed out more PP at much lower price of 0.18 and the market is happy with that and moved higher with historic volume. I wonder why such unseen volume is needed just to move a few cents up in share price. The only logical explanation is when you need to siphon out a large number of shares, the underlying transaction volume must be large enough to cover up the disposal. The transaction volume had to be large enough to move the stock into top active list to attract fresh trading players. Jaks has done this many times in the past. Those who have not sold are lucky for now only if you plan to sell just for a few cents more. However, just beware of sudden lost of interest in the stock. The up in share price has not change the underlying liquidity problems Jaks will be facing in the near future. In fact, the continuous PP exercises is a proof of liquidity problems. The latest AGM has approved another 10% PP. This is just my personal opinion.

Don't put hope on the dividend. It is likely to be just a "token of appreciation".

Dividend talk only. Nothing concrete. Dare not announce because TTB does not know how the market will react if the dividend is perceived to be too small. Any sell down will give COL opportunity to collect more.

Why this kind of half baked announcement about dividend policy ? Still haven't found a solution yet ? Or just to stop shareholders from selling to COL ......

KUALA LUMPUR 18 AUGUST 2023: After extensive research, icapital.biz Berhad (5108, ICAP) is to introduce, among other strategies, an innovative dividend policy to ensure that the gap between the fund’s share price and net asset value (NAV) will consistently be auto-remedied moving forward.

DK has recently written an article on Jaks valuation analysis. Only permitted for private sharing. Those interested please PM.

The short loan tenure of JHDP as well as the declining capacity payments of JHDP for the first 10 years are most likely to cause medium term liquidity problems for Jaks. The expected future dividend distributions from JPP are insufficient for repayment of RM500m local bank borrowings of which the majority matures within the next 4 years. Local businesses except the solar farm are unlikely to turn around from losses in the near future. Monetisation of malls may not be easy due to their dire conditions. The bulk of the borrowings were taken by the subsidiaries which house the investment properties including the malls, offices, car park and apartments. These subsidiaries are having negative equities which means their liabilities exceed their assets, thus refinancing of borrowings may prove difficult.

Therefore, Jaks is very likely to face negative cash flow in the foreseeable future until such time the dividend from JHDP increases substantially after its loan is fully repaid in Year 2030. Meantime, in order to address the cash deficiencies, equity fund raising exercises such as private placements and rights issues are convenient ways to raise funds but they are detrimental to the interest of the minority shareholders due to dilution in future earnings per share (EPS).

Downside risks include continuous future equities fund raising exercises to meet cash flow requirements. Any unforeseen or unplanned breakdown of power plant will have significant impact on Jaks’ cash flow especially for the period before the JHDP loans are fully repaid as its dividend from JHDP maybe reduced substantially.

On another note, if CPECC decided to sell its stake in JHDP, Jaks will be forced to dispose its stake. AES recently divested its 1200MW Mong Duong II power plant (costing USD2,100m) and POSCO followed suit citing increased volatility. POSCO’s 30% stake was sold for USD185m. Jaks’ 30% stake in JHDP (costing USD1,870m) should proportionately fetch USD165m (RM723m) equivalent to RM0.316 per share. While this amount is sufficient to pay off its debts, Jaks will have no future source of income except the small 50MW solar farm.

Which is a better strategy ?
1. share buyback
2. declare dividend
3. capital dynamic buying more icap shares from open market

COL is certainly going to buy more until it has enough to overturn the board. What option is left for TTB to defend its cash cow?

Jaks has huge bank borrowings both locally and in Vietnam. High interest rate has very big negative impact on both its financial earnings and cash flow.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/gotyou/2023-08-10-story-h-242996036-THE_IMPACT_OF_HIGHER_INTEREST_RATE_ON_JAKS_RESOURCES_PROFIT_SHARING_FRO

Dear OTB, I have spoken to DK to welcome you back to DK's group if you are interested. You don't belong to the small new group. Aseng is a dictator. He just removed someone who refused to apologise to him. Other admins dare not add him back. Freedom of speech is only a lie.

The short loan tenure of JHDP as well as the declining capacity payments of JHDP for the first 10 years are most likely to cause medium term liquidity problems for Jaks. The expected future dividend distributions from JPP are insufficient for repayment of RM500m local bank borrowings of which the majority matures within the next 4 years. Local businesses except the solar farm are unlikely to turn around from losses in the near future. Monetisation of malls may not be easy due to their dire conditions. The bulk of the borrowings were taken by the subsidiaries which house the investment properties including the malls, offices, car park and apartments. These subsidiaries are having negative equities which means their liabilities exceed their assets, thus refinancing of borrowings may prove difficult.

Therefore, Jaks is very likely to face negative cash flow in the foreseeable future until such time the dividend from JHDP increases substantially after its loan is fully repaid in Year 2030. Meantime, in order to address the cash deficiencies, equity fund raising exercises such as private placements and rights issues are convenient ways to raise funds but they are detrimental to the interest of the minority shareholders due to dilution in future earnings per share (EPS).

Discounted cash flow (DCF) remains the most appropriate valuation method for Jaks. Local bank borrowings should be included in the DCF model for a more accurate reflection of the future cash flow situation of Jaks.

The valuation stress test shows that, depending on the management’s choice to meet future cash requirements either through equity or refinancing or a combination of both, Jaks is conservatively valued between RM0.21 and RM0.31.

Jaks’ long-term valuation remains above its current market price. Its medium-term liquidity problems are a serious cause of concern. Existing shareholders should closely monitor its liquidity conditions and be prepared for future equity fund raising exercises. Perspective investors are wise to wait and see.

The real danger comes from non stop PP and RI to raise funds to cover negative cash flows in the coming years.

The short loan tenure of JHDP as well as the declining capacity payments of JHDP for the first 10 years are most likely to cause medium term liquidity problems for Jaks. The expected future dividend distributions from JPP are insufficient for repayment of RM500m local bank borrowings of which the majority matures within the next 4 years. Local businesses except the solar farm are unlikely to turn around from losses in the near future. Monetisation of malls may not be easy due to their dire conditions. The bulk of the borrowings were taken by the subsidiaries which house the investment properties including the malls, offices, car park and apartments. These subsidiaries are having negative equities which means their liabilities exceed their assets, thus refinancing of borrowings may prove difficult.

Therefore, Jaks is very likely to face negative cash flow in the foreseeable future until such time the dividend from JHDP increases substantially after its loan is fully repaid in Year 2030. Meantime, in order to address the cash deficiencies, equity fund raising exercises such as private placements and rights issues are convenient ways to raise funds but they are detrimental to the interest of the minority shareholders due to dilution in future earnings per share (EPS).

Discounted cash flow (DCF) remains the most appropriate valuation method for Jaks. Local bank borrowings should be included in the DCF model for a more accurate reflection of the future cash flow situation of Jaks.

The valuation stress test shows that, depending on the management’s choice to meet future cash requirements either through equity or refinancing or a combination of both, Jaks is conservatively valued between RM0.21 and RM0.31.

Jaks’ long-term valuation remains above its current market price. Its medium-term liquidity problems are a serious cause of concern. Existing shareholders should closely monitor its liquidity conditions and be prepared for future equity fund raising exercises. Perspective investors are wise to wait and see.

On another note, if CPECC decided to sell its stake in JHDP, Jaks will be forced to dispose its stake. AES recently divested its 1200MW Mong Duong II power plant (costing USD2,100m) and POSCO followed suit citing increased volatility. POSCO’s 30% stake was sold for USD185m. Jaks’ 30% stake in JHDP (costing USD1,870m) should proportionately fetch USD165m (RM723m) equivalent to RM0.316 per share. While this amount is sufficient to pay off its debts, Jaks will have no future source of income except the small 50MW solar farm.

Downside risks include continuous future equities fund raising exercises to meet cash flow requirements. Any unforeseen or unplanned breakdown of power plant will have significant impact on Jaks’ cash flow especially for the period before the JHDP loans are fully repaid as its dividend from JHDP maybe reduced substantially.

Didn't listen to DK's advice now cry father cry mother blame him blame her. Now still don't want to listen.

ALP continued to get his free shares and nothing for you.

By then Jaks is still alive but you are already dead

YES, Jaks' money problems can be solved but only with your money. You need to put in more and more money to solve the problems.

You did not listen to DK more than 2 years ago and that is where you are now. Now, you don't listen again. Don't blame me later.

Jaks will be facing big cash shortfalls in the coming years when more and more bank borrowings mature. There will be more PP/RI from now until the JHDP loan is fully settled in year 2030. By then, the share base (NOSH) would have doubled !

This article should be taken seriously. Jaks' management are not trust worthy !

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/TimelessInvestment/2023-07-10-story-h-246424046-JAKS_Resources_Berhad

Gotyou, DK added you.

Gotyou, if you like you may join DK's group. DK is open minded and is serious about freedom of speech and expression of opinions as long as supported by credible arguments. I'm a good example. After I was removed by Aseng for expressing negative opinions, DK took me back into the group knowing his long time ally, Aseng, will not be happy. However, you need to make a formal request to join DK's group. DK's group has not taken in any new member for the last few years. I will speak with DK if you are interested.

Gotyou
Aseng, I withdraw my request to join. I understand that my position contradicts the interest of the group. ------------------ Trust me, you don't want to join the group. You articles have created havoc to them. You will be torn into pieces in the group. I was thrown out by Aseng because I agreed to your articles. Anyway, why you want to join the group ?

88surewin88 is a new ID created by Aseng

You were not removed by DK because of me. You were removed after I was added back by DK and you were unhappy and started cursing DK. Why you keep lying ? All the donations you made also fake ? Why you call yourself a buddhist ?

Isn't that why I was removed by you in the first place ? You can't accept opposing views !

Prove that your group has balanced view !

Why can't you be honest for once !

Don't talk rubbish about balanced view from both sides. Dare not accept Gotyou into your group because his opposing views will scare away all your members and you have to remove Gotyou later. Waiting list for membership is quite extensive ? Still lying and none stop lying to save face.

OMG ! this is the Aseng's group you people want to join ? listening to this kind of rubbish ??

You dreamed to be a king but in reality you are just a beggar, Aseng the beggar begging everyone to join his group.

Aseng, ask you friends who still remain inside the group how many has left the group. You think they will leave DK for you? fat hope ! You know nothing but begging. Now people start to speak up because they don't need to fear you now.

itudia joined i3 in 2015. You think I created this ID 8 years ago just for today? Making everyone my shadow so that you appear to have less enemies ?

Aseng, you still wondering why you have so many enemies. Because you always want everything your way ! You kept telling people to do nothing for the last 2 years after DK left. DK already laid out his disposal plan when Jaks was 80 cents but you wanted everyone to follow your way.

Article by Minh Ha-Duong. Three scenarios for coal power in Vietnam. 2019. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02263898v2/document stated that :

"The plan to procure a fleet of Build-Operate-Transfer projects goes on with small acceptable delays, foreign investors are satisfied by the 12% internal rate of return allowed in their Power Purchase Agreements". The author cited Circular 56/2014/TT-BCT on method of determination of electricity generation costs, sequence of inspection of power purchase agreement (PPA). 50 (Ministry of Industry and Trade, 2014) as source of reference.

OTB, you will be kicked out after you are no longer useful to him. He blamed you for causing his daughter losing more than 500k just like how he now blamed DK for his losses. He said he will never forgive you. I just thought you might like to know.

Wow, Aseng can be so unscrupulous. After what he had said about OTB in the group, he apologised to OTB ! Or just to make use of OTB to attract members ?? I m really speechless. He can stoop so low to get what he wants ! Maybe one day he will apologise to DK too.

Why did DK had to come back after retirement ? Because I reported his oppressive behavior against opposing opinions to DK ! He wasn't happy because DK did not let him rule with iron fist. He thought he owns the house with 1400 members after DK had retired. People joined the house because of DK not Aseng ! Aseng and his cronies promoted hold and do nothing even after DK had laid out his exit plan after his sell call more than 2 years ago. Now cursing DK for his losses after his removal. Now everyone, except a few of his cronies, in the group is happy with DK's decision. Why is Aseng making enemy everywhere ? He can't get alone with anyone not agreeing with him, not even DK! DK made another warning call on Jaks exclusively to his group and I supported the call and cautioned everyone but that antagonised Aseng and I was removed. DK had a long history in this forum. Who will believe Aseng's story ?

Haha, 88surewin88 is a new ID created yesterday. Someone hiding behind a new ID pretending to give support.

I thought you guys should know this Aseng. When he likes you, you are his angel. When he hates you, you are worst than demon. DK did not ill treated him, DK removed him as he used his admin power given by DK to oppress opposing opinions. DK corrected him but he wasn't happy and started cursing DK and hence removed from the group. Then he started telling lies here. Do you want to join his group? Only if you are obedient. His followers suffered huge losses as he kept telling them to do nothing. Is he capable ? He didn't write a single article about Jaks. He can only tell sweet story to keep you holding Jaks.

Lol, Aseng has no true friends. None of his so called friends leave the group to show support for him.