MUDA limit up at 30%, close 1.69
ORNA up 15.5%, close 1.52
PPHB up 11.76%, close 0.76
MASTER up 8.06%, close 0.67
BOX-PAX up 7.08 %, close 1.21

Undoubtedly a good day for corrugated packaging companies...

bro kyosan, looking at the business activities, MINGHO doesn't look like corrugated packaging to me...
http://www.minhobhd.com/business.html

Congratulation to those invested in ORNA!

MUDA limit up. No other choice but buy ORNA, PPHB

ORNA on the run!

Congratulation to all Investor in MUDA!

Looks like most of the benefit flow through the paper mill first....Gross margin for manufacturing division improved 10.5% from 9.1% YoY and 4.1% QoQ. But revenue increase far more 32.3% YoY and 8.9% QoQ. Volume for paper milling up 13% and paper packaging 7% in FY 17


Quoted"...adversely affected by higher raw material cost for the industrial paper product and paper packaging especially in the first six months of the year. However, margin improved after July 2017"

Corrugating plant capacity expansion in Melaka and Johor are expected to come on stream in 3Q2018 and 4Q2018 respectively.

And no much one off things...

By all means, this is a blowout quarters!!!

MBMR is holding better than expected.

Result not satisfactory. Hit by impairment adjustments totaled to RM242.5 million for the quarter. Even core also not nice, an associate profit down 23.5%. JV reduced by 34.4%....

Higher ASP but still lag from raw material price hike...

operational execution is a concern...far too much unplanned downtime. 2 this quarter, and 1 in 3Q2017

Other than that, losses at holding company is lower this quarter, apparently peaks at 1Q2018, perhaps indicating North Sabah integration activities are heading to wrap-up?

Hibiscus result was affected by lower oil production rate, dropped to 2.1k bbl from 3.9 k bbl YoY and 2.6 k bbl QoQ due to Anasuria FPSO turnaround (extending from 1Q) and 2 unplanned downtime events. Oil price reaches record high up 22.1 % QoQ so this is quite disappointing. Result could be worst as oil sold was 274.6 k bbl vs production of 190.5 kbbl.

Anticipating a cup and handle formation? Wait for the break of the flag pattern for a push to 2.70-2.80 (based on the height of the cup)…Results should be coming soon at max 9 days!

Lotte’s chief – 2 years and 6 months. Should not have too much impact on LC Titan as no major decisions are currently pending.. Let’s see how market interpret…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-politics/lotte-chief-and-ex-presidents-friend-jailed-in-south-korea-scandal-idUSKBN1FX0P2

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-08/kolanovic-current-crisis-playing-out-exactly-same-aug-2015-crisis
A note about zerohedge, this site is full of doomsayers, so take it with a pinch of salt, but Kolanovic is a pretty smart guant guy...

Another 1000 points drop for DOW Jones insides today. From technical chart, potential double- bottom in the making, crucial for 23780 level to hold. Meanwhile, bond yield are relatively stable, not the trigger for today’s fall.

There goes my hope for special dividend post Capital 21….. Buying land at Pontian, Johor.
http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=1032564

CCK has vertical integration for its poultry business while its cold storage stores have captive market in Sabah & Sarawak. Bonus is its Indonesian arm… Will benefit from ringgit appreciation, with soft commodities (wheat, corn & soyabean) price more or less range-bounded. The downside is poultry and egg prices down QoQ.

On quarter to quarter basis, Brent Crude increases 20% plus while both MOGAS and gasoil around 12%, which means refinery margin contraction.
Based on fifo (current cost of stock + stockholding gain) for Q3 is only at 10.17. Take out stockholding gain of 2.64, ccs is only 7.53. With margin contraction, I’m doubtful that Q4 earning will be higher than Q3.
My Q417 PBT estimate is RM 340m, which is close to Q32017 earning. Taking taxation into consideration, net profit estimate is RM 267.5m (or EPS RM 0.89)
What are considered: Refinery margin, Stockholding gain and Forex Gain.
What is not factored in: effect of hedging.
Above is my 2 cent worth.

A cautionary note. In Q4 2017, feedstock Naphtha price rose in tandem with oil. However, products ASP (primarily PE & PP) price lagged behind, resulting in the margin squeeze. Q4 result could be disappointment to those who expect a stellar performance. Products ASP price rate increase are unlikely to match the pace of oil/naphtha as long as natural gas (alternate feedstock) remains relatively stable. My 2 sen worth.

Unicorn is valued over 1 billion dollar. You have big faith!

A hat tip to Icon8888 for sharing the insight on PWORTH.

@VenFx, thank for your feedback. My journey in investment taught me many things. One of them is that investing is less about being correct than to simply make a profit out of our investment. That said, I prefer to be surprised on the upside and hence the conservatism.
The adage of "let the profit runs and cut the losses" can never be more apt here.

So far, PWORTH has raised some RM34.6m through private placement and special issues. Current D/E is around 39.6%, still room for further borrowing for bank for the purchase if so desired.

Date to watch 31/3/2018, cash option will expire.
Action to watch: PWOETH has yet to call EGM for shareholders' approval for the purchase of the new concessionaire.
Pending fund raising via GSR listing: No prospectus sighted yet….

PWORTH is gaining momentum!
I value it around RM 449mx70% (new concessionaire)+ RM 60m (old asset)=RM 374m, assuming that it uses right issue or GSR Pe Ltd listing in SGX. That would be some 36-39 sen using sum of part method.

On the flip side, potential drop to 13-15 sen if the concessionaire purchase fails (low risk though)

Of course, the uptrend in lumber price since early 2017 is the icing on the cake.

Auto loan growth decreased by -1.0% YoY for Nov, which signals sluggish growth for TIV as confirmed by Paul Tan’s data for Nov +0.2% YoY and +4.6% MoM.
https://paultan.org/2017/12/18/november-2017-malaysia-vehicle-sales-up-4-6-from-oct-0-2-up-year-on-year-ytd-is-1-3-up-from-2016/

Even worse, auto loan application actually contracted which indicates the root of auto industry’s malaise may lie with the consumer demand (which is harder to solve) rather than just difficulty to get loan.

There are two catalyst for MBMR:- volume growth and shift towards higher margin product mix. Of course, now with additional factor of stronger Ringgit vs yen. So, a shift back to profit margin of ~5% together with stronger Ringgit will probably provide just enough fuel for price to rise to around RM2.35-RM2.55. To go beyond, probably need volume growth in 2018.

Looks like fund are pouring into construction sector now. Below is my qualitative ranking by book order size relative to revenue, profit margin, projected FY18 PE and experience in rail projects.

GADANG (MRT2, Cyberjaya Hospital, TRX)

GKENT (PDP LRT3, 3x Hospital, MRT2, a robust water meter business)

GAMUDA (MRT2 PDP+ Tunnelling), Pan-Borneo Sarawak, Property business (local + international) + utilities (Splash, Highway – LDP, Sprint, KESAS)

GBGAQRS (LRT3, Kota SAS, SUKE, PR1MA projects, One Jesselton) – Most important – link to Pahang Royalty (ECRL). Precedent: Gemas-JB rail – YTL (partner with Johor Royalty)

EKOVEST (KL Rivercity, SPE Highway, potential listing of DUKE Highway this year)

VIVOCOM (PR1MA, PPA1M, Private Buildings, Standing out: Local partner for CRCC, new largest shareholder CNQC) Dark horse Bet!

Thanks for sharing. May worth a punt...

Also quoted from same article...

Quoted, “Adding to the forex conundrum is the fact that the bulk of Hengyuan’s debt is denominated in US dollars — two separate term loans of US$350 million, some US$200 million of which has to be repaid (or refinanced) by 2022 while the balance will be run until 2024.”

Refer to Note A17 of the 3rd quarter report, "...Following the change of its functional currency from Ringgit Malaysia to the US Dollar, the Company's exposure to foreign currencies is now limited to financial assets and liabilities that are denominated in currencies other than the US Dollar. The USD denominated term loans are no longer exposed to foreign currency fluctuations."

In my view, with the change of functional currency any gain or loss will be captured under the comprehensive income, hence US denominated debts is no longer susceptible to forex volatility.

I took notice that this article from the Theedge weekly was referred to many times..
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/analysing-hengyuans-discount-petron

I wish to highlight that wrong information was provided. On forex, Hengyuan actually posted forex gain (instead of losses per article).Theedge weekly subsequently posted a correction notice ( printed circulation) the following week at pg 12.

Quoted “ it should have read “a RM 67.3 million realised forex gain and a RM 17.8 million unrealised forex loss’. The error is regretted.”

Mickey in GENM’s 20th Century Fox World?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-14/disney-buys-fox-assets-in-52-billion-breakup-of-murdoch-empire

Early tomorrow, fed is expected to raise rate by 0.25%. Hopefully, nothing big surprise come up. Should accelerate foreign inflow if meet the base case

Bystander123,
The initial target will be ~RM9.50 where the handle high, 100 MA and 200 MA converge. Closing above there will bring RM10.00 into focus. A breakout above there probably needs the return of the foreign shareholders.

There are 2 things, i.e tax allowance and tax rebate. Allowance is to offset taxable income while rebate is to reduce total tax.  As far as I know, qualified capital expenditure is provided with investment tax allowance, not rebate..

http://www.mia.org.my/v1/downloads/resources/publications/budget/2017/B/B18.pdf

Tax Asset (from 2016 Annual Report): RM 762.9 m
YTD PBT: RM 725.7 m 
Hengyuan should be paying tax soon, perhaps by next quarter...

Posted by joeshare > Dec 7, 2017 09:50 PM | Report Abuse
Lau333 so means hy dont need to pay tax till when?

I’m not an accountant but allow me to share my view...

Typically, a capital investment should create tax asset that can be used to offset taxable income as seen in Hibiscus’ 4Q2017 report. So, any investment should add to the reinvestment allowance instead... which will be timely as most of the tax asset should have been utilized to offset YTD PBT of RM762.9m.

Refer to Note A17 of the report,
“..Following the change of its functional currency from Ringgit Malaysia to the US Dollar, the Company’s exposure to foreign currencies is now limited to financial assets and liabilities that are denominated in currencies other than the US Dollar.  The USD denominated term loans are no longer exposed to foreign currency fluctuations.”
 
Any gain or loss will be captured under the comprehensive income.

Noticed typo on SSTEEL capacity, should be 1500 KTA instead.

Btw, the production capacity figure of Allliance is from google. That may need further validation.

That’s just my 2 cents. Glad that you find it useful.

@occa888, Alliance is not a listed entity and hence scarcity of information for in-depth analysis. ANNJOO has 800 KTA, MASTEEL 500 KTA, LIONIND 2400KTA (some not in operation) & SSTEEL 180 KTA. Quoted from Lionind 2015 annual report.
It is unlikely any export strategy will work in the post-Trump era. So, it depends on its cost competitiveness, execution and bank balance at its parent companies.. Last check it is 2 largely unknown SOE from Guangxi province, not the hub of steel making giants in China. End of the day, it is still about cost-competitiveness. Unfortunately, the scale of the operation is one of the biggest determinant.

@ Occa888,you have raised a very pertinent point. The Alliance plant’s 3.5m tonnes capacity (Commencement of Operation Q12018) and an even bigger 5.0m tonnes steel plant in Samalaju, Sarawak (mid 2020) will definitely have huge impact given that domestic steel consumption is only 10.3m (2016 data) once they are fully operationalized. Export will be everybody’s salvation but we probably need another planet to trade with given the excess capacities worldwide! The key words here is “fully operationalized”. Given the initial startup difficulties, products qualification lengthy processes and distribution & marketing challenges, probably there is around a year before the impact will start to be felt.

Quoted” Perodua’s order books for the new 2018 Perodua Myvi now has 15,500 names, almost two weeks into the launch of the third-generation hatchback. The figures, given by Perodua president and CEO Datuk Aminar Rashid Salleh this afternoon, are until yesterday. The company has delivered 1,900 units of the car so far.”
https://paultan.org/2017/11/29/perodua-myvi-bookings-reach-15500-units-1900-delivered-84-1-5l-variants-grey-most-popular/#comments

As of 24 Nov: 13,000 booking in 15 days -> Book Rate = 867 per day
As of 28 Nov: +2,500 booking in additional 4 days-> Book Rate = 625 per day

Look like booking slacks after initial burst. Assuming 625 per day booking, per month rate will be 18,800 or 11,200 delivery (assuming loan approval ratio of ratio of 60%). That’s nearly double the 6000 initial target.

Hopefully, the momentum can sustain....

@ ilovehits & astalavista, thanks for the kind words. Still much to learn. Lower output than expected. I had hoped that existing inventories will help to tide over the month-long shutdown of the Anasuria FPSO.  But apparently, not the case.  Also, much higher loss at the investment holding and group activities, something that I have thought about (due to North Sabah’s pre-acquisition expenses) but not really put in.  Perhaps the biggest miss is on the taxation side:- deferred tax caused tax credit in the reporting quarter. So, all in all, end figure looks nice but on deeper level still some way off!!!

By all mean, it is a good results. The only blight is contraction in gross margin especially on QoQ basic from 20% to 14%.  Either way, chart break indicates further momentum, to be confirmed upon breaking RM0.91 level.

Something totally unexpected, huh? So am I...

No, I’m not about to go rogue.......:) Think for a moment, something that is..well, personal; a far away war ; and a brash and narcissistic President; what could be the possible connection..... Turnout it can be summarized in one word: KAREX, the largest condom manufacturer in the world.   Karex’s CEO MK Goh blamed both Syrian war and President Trump for its plunging profit and sales (less so)!!
 
But it started to make sense once we realized that 50% of global condom sales is from tender orders.   Tender orders are mainly government bids meant for African countries with funds from European countries, United Nation and mostly NGOs operating out of the United States.   So, the Syrian war caused a refugee crisis, which means fund intended for purchase of condom (to prevent/contain AIDS epidemic in Africa) was repurposed to support refugee waves hitting European shores!!
 
Then, what about Donald Trump?  He was elected on the conservative agendas, among which is pro-life policy.   Which is essentially an anti-abortion policy.   His election has caused funding cut to NGOs which supported abortion right but also are the main contributor to funding for condom for African countries.    If he really pro-life, he should have setup new NGOs to fund the condom purchase.  After all, condom prevent unwanted pregnancies... no?

Revenue up as expected with volume up 15.6% and average selling price up 13.7%..but gross margin declined 1.1% YoY, which the management cited was due to raw material costs increase, are rather unexpected.  China ban on imported paper should have drive the raw material costs downward but apparently the trickle down effect is yet to be felt.  Maybe because the ban will only take effect end of year (announced July) and time lag between purchase and actual consumption.

@ elvinteo, short answer to your question is no. Hibiscus is tight with capital at this moment. It just completed second tranche of private placement to raise working capital. Few capital expenditures are being lined up for Anasuria in 2H2017 and eventually for North Sabah. Oil and gas production is a depletion business and require replenishment (both reservoir pressure and reserve) from time to time, which is capital intensive. Dividend payment may not be realistic for Hibiscus in short and medium term.

That’s just my two cents.