@ Icon8888 Another round of impairment around 190mil.
15/04/2021 4:56 PM
Where do you get this “ news “ Or it is just your guess ?

potential EPS of 8-10 sens in FY 2021 plus stong operating cash generations topare down loans means more interest savings in coming quarters. Attractice price at 44 sens now.

I agree Armada's positive operating cash flow is prudently used to reduce its loans by RM 1 billion each year hence its interest costs are also down. Though its past impairments and depreciations ( around RM 900 Million in year 2020) of its assets were bad for Armada profitability but it generated cash flow to pay down its loan too. There is no information available in Armada financial report of its remaining OSVs values which are more susceptible to oil prices fluctuations which affects its charters business.

Share split date is yet to be declared, to me I see it has no intrinsic value adding except improve its liquidity to attract more transactions.

Armada is not too sensitive to daily fluctuation of oil prices , its FPSO business is based on long term contract with customers. Medium term risks of sustained low oil prices would be more on its OMV division’s OSV charter business. Looking forward to next quarterly results .

With rising USD versus MYR lately, plus management comment on of better EAF in the Jan/Feb period YOY, we can expect better quarterly profit from Dong Sahong hydro plant. Current price is attractive with potential EPS in FY 21 more than 65 cents, I would add more if it drop further. Be patient, the letter from management posted by linjie on 03/03/2021 4:38 PM is quite informative on MFCB financial/ cash flow management. Thanks

I am waiting to add if it drops more but it rebound a little today, also good news to me. Price fluctuations either way presenting opportunities actually. Low price add more as this is a turn around counter , just be patient.

As long as Armada is producing profit of around RM 120 millions and above per quarter and above , it’s share price is under values below 80 sen to RM 1.00 in my opinion ; not too worry for its share price short term fluctuations. It’s healthy cash flow is paring down its debt fast. Good oil price may mean less chance of impairment of its OSVs values and more hiring opportunities. Chance to collect more Armada if it drops further.

Tenaga is slow and steady with solid near monopoly business. Its NTA is at RM 9.79, hence current price is attractive for long term investor. Just be patien and meanwhile enjoy high dividend.

Why rush to sell before bonus X date if one believe Tenaga is a solid business to invest ? Stay as investor and trades as trader, which category are you that is the question?

@

Alexloc04 MM78 and Nikicheobg
What is the price range for this round ?
Any guesstimate.?
07/03/2021 9:03 AM

Hi Alexloc04,

When you say this round , does it mean it look at Armada more as a share trader ?

I am more interested to look at it as medium to long term business investor. I can’t predict price fluctuations and its timing , the market determines its price and influenced by heard mentality or syndicates causing volatilities .

The current price is still below Armada NTA and the company is making good core profit in the lat few quarters, I believe it is undervalued for now given its strengthening fundamentals plus pending world economy recovery from pandemic Covid 19.

I would think 10-12 times EPS of Armada for now is not unreasonable given its business model and its latest progress .

Would you buy into and hold the investment of a company which is recovering from its trough years, increasingly profitable and yet its share price is still below its NTA ?

The next few quarters can be very interesting for its share valuations , my guess.

At 58 sens dividend and current price level, Tenaga is safe and attractive shares to invest and hold for the next 1-2 years in the worst scenarios . Tech shares are at bubbling high hence very risky while glove shares are on their way down. Fundamentals in Tenaga are very strong, it takes wars to destroy this near monopoly business.

@ Nikicheong,
Only reason I said I may want to sell is if the price jumps alot in the next week or two. Cause there is highly likely a pullback later on. I bought at RM0.225, and I will be tempted to derisk if I get a good value now. Can always buy back later.

06/03/2021 7:59 PM

Understand your risks management and also learning from your method too. I missed out cashing the last time it spiked to about 50+ sens before. This time I have more confidence as the CEO Gary seems to be more hands on than the previous the predecessor.

@Nikicheong

Yes I agree, fact findings of the share we invest in are more reliable than wishful thinkings or heard mentality following. Fears mongering with hear says are the useful tool by shorting sharks to spread panics.

Thanks for your generous insights and thoughts sharing.

Fear of missing out is ever present in our mind when are are staring at yet to be cashed in good profit . ( More of a trader than an investor )
It takes a lot of mental strengths to resist the temptations cashing in.

Easy said than done for many.of us .
Admired how well Nikicheong knows Aramada’ operations but surprised he may cash in . I am not saying this is right or wrong but wonder if it is how our minds play us as a share trader or business investors. I will wait for now i.

Thanks you Nikicheong

Very well researched and written analysis where do you find so much information especially on their specific FPSO’s situations / opportunities ?

@ CyMaOs @MM78
Thanks CyMaOs for your information

“
2: MBSB's strong CG. A translation of its effort to pure outcome as seen on its sturdy growth over time. ........ “


What is CG as per your earlier reply state above please ?

Temptations to sell is strong if one mainly base on the rising speed of Armada share price ; perhaps looking at its improving fundamentals and signs of sustaining such performance may give us some strengths to tame our temptations and hold further to enjoy its full valuations later...... 43 % paper profit is good but may not good enough yet looking at Armada business potential.

When and if the next quarter results show another 2 sens and above EPS with less idled OSVs, and no impairment Armada would rise further (to 70 sens or more ? ) . Current price still at early real reflection of market confidence of its turn around.

It is shooting up.....

Its OMS divison is the biggest bleeding point with impairment costs of RM 357 Millions in + another RM 187 million depreciation in FY 20 ( see page 18 F 20 annual report for details) .

If Armada can avoid 20 % of its FY 20 OMS divsion impairments on its less idle OSVs in FY 2021 in the rising oil price therefore more service needed by oil companies or it manage to sell 20% of its idle OSV , it means potentially less (20 % impairments costs of RM 357 Million) RM 72 millions +less RM 37 millions ( 20 % of RM 187 millions depreciation /year) = RM 109 millions adding back to its FY21 core profit .

its financial cost is also reduced by about RM 72 Millions a year in FY 20 and assume it likley to conitinue as Armada pares down its loan by nearly 1 billion RM a year.

Adding all these up, optimistcally there is a potential saving of RM 180 millions/ year in FY 21 if the above scenario unfolds. (equivalent to 3 sens EPS ; at PE of 10 , it means potentially another 30 sens adding to its share valuations )

Base on this I think the share price may possibly rise to TP beyond 70 sens by FY 21 year end provided FPSOs continue to perform well.

My thoughts of 2 sens worth to share here ; I stand corrected by wiser opinions as I am no financial accountant.

05/03/2021 2:03 PM

Armada NTA is 53 sens after much impairments in the last few years , at current price its PB ratio is 0.82, so it is still undervalued based on this yardstick. More importantly, if or as the next few quartery profits can match if not better than last quarter results, it would break the next price barrier of 55 sens. Hopefully the blue skies await the rise of Armada space ship.

@ CyMaOs The finest banking stock to own in Malaysia.

Any good points to share for your optimistic views of MBSB , pleas ?

Is this the Palmit Ecoengineering Sdn Bhd the bio diesel plant ?

The challenge for many of us including myself is how to hold back the temptation of early cashing in unless one makes an effort to understand the business fundamental of the business well enough.

As you call yourself NoPowrAtAll, we have just to ignore your negative views of Tenaga, your pessimistic forecasts just don’t have basis or NoPowerAtAll. Next time change to Bo Lat

@hopetocorrect

The values is stated as per presentation at RM 3.6 millions.
Please also see MKH annual report FY20 , page 187 .

I attended the AGM Zoom session. Not impressed by the reports on the property division progress. Could not help the presentation is brushing on the surface and was surprised by and don’t like the internal dealing of the director bought a piece of land from the company , even though on the surface at above its valuations. To me this can be avoided so as not to add second guessing. Another concerns is it is shifting the unsold properties inventory( car park units) into become property investment division which gives miserable return currently. Again it is a red flag to me. Though the AGM presentation indicate many future launching plans, I have questions what would be the take up rates. Another potential shifting of future unsold units into the investment property division ?
The Plantation division performance is good given its average CPO cost about RM 1500 per ton plus the fact there is no Covid 19 cases among the estate workers.

@jeffchan1901 yes.. 0.58 sen ie. 0.18 normal and 0.4 special dividend. ex date to be announced
02/03/2021 6:41 AM

Thank you, Jeffchan 1901, for answering the questiosn as I did not read the latest report then. Now I am happyafter reading the latest report, the confidence in TNB is justified.

Enjoy KFC now or you can eat plenty of lobsters in the next few quarters. Different poeple has different risk appetite or taste....

Its NTA is 55 sens after so much impairments and with potential EPS of 8-10 sens in FY 21, current valuations are attractive to the values investors.

Hold and enjoy the fun of rising valuations in Aramada the next few quarters. Best part of the soups is at the last portion as the saying goes.

Share prices fluctuate but if the company quarterly results continue to reflect its good fundamental values, it is matter of time the price would reflect the confidence of more investors wanting the shares. Armada results are getting better the last 3 quarters . If the coming quarters are further showing consistent or better results than the last one , EPS of 10 sens in FY21 are achievable . Just at PE 8-10 , it would worth 80 sens or more. I was guessing 65 sens would not be far fetched before the last quarter results better than expected.

As oil prices improves and possibly hold steady in this pandemic recovery in near future , oil and gas companies will have more offshore activities which bodes well for the OSVs service business. Less chance of future impairment risks on OSV assets in Armada; FPSOs are the cash cows that will pare down Armada’s loans and help cut down down finance costs. A virtuous cycle to be unfolded in coming quarters. A 10 sens EPS in FY 2021 would be a great milestone , even 8 sens EPS are good for more optimism among investors of Armada. Traders may miss the big gains next few quarters for enjoy KFC too fast. My 2 cents to share....... PE of 10 not unreasonable given the latest Armada’s performance ?

Is there any dividend declared by Tenaga ?

As said, with the latest quarterly results more than RM 100 millions, investors will jump in though a little late Never mind, we the strong believers makes money .

The quarterly profit is better than expected , Armada is on its way for good profitability after years in limbo. At current valuations it is attractive. For those who are still doubtful , you may miss the boat ! With 6-8 sens potential EPS in Fy 2021, the share price will attract more value investors . Armada is a big ship, it takes time to turn around and the latest quarterly results conforms it is heading towards the right direction.

Apple 168 as long as you can’t provide logical argument against TNB at this record low PB valuations
not many would accept your fear mongering here .
Citing Silverstone Tyre in Taiping closure as signs of collapse in manufacturing sector is so fear mongering . Have you ever visited E&E manufacturing plants yourself .?

Many of the big players’ electricity bills runs into million Rinngit per months.

Lately E& E sector is booming , I believe the power consumption goes up too. I know many air compressor companies are selling very well into glove factories too, another big electricity using sector. So stop Kiasi here.

I do acknowledge the demand from commercial sector is likely affected in CMCO hence I am quite curious what is the overall electricity demand in Malaysia too.

Thanks to Titan’s posting , I got the answers of the electricity consumption drops lately after reading the 2 articles.
Yes,I also recommend you read it many times over so that you can stop projecting collapse of electricity demand in Malaysia. Sleep well by placing your money in fixed deposit if you think TNB would loose money .

Apple168 continues to spread unfounded fears not only on TNB but also at other counters invarioussites.The agenda is obvious, just to press down the price .We can accept fact base arguments but not fear mongeringas doneby Apple 168.

MYWB becomes quiet after I posted on 18 Feb debunking his claims of coal price impact ( based ob dated information) on TNB profit.

One neestoputin efforttoknow what weare buying into so that those with fear mongering or wilful misinformational tactics would not affect our resolves to hold on the good share we have invested.

Read the annual report to understand Tenaga better , instead of second guessing ....

Nikicheong

Thanks for sharing your information on Bumi Armada FPSO Status Review

Mymb,your concerns of coal price affecting TNB profitability is no more valid as there is a a tariff adjustment mechanism as stated in TNB 2019 annual report page 047 whic states

" In 2019, the Government continued with the Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) mechanism for two six-month cycles, beginning
in January and then July 2019. ICPT is a tariff adjustment mechanism that allows for the pass-through of variation in fuel costs
and generation costs into the customer’s tariff in Peninsular Malaysia via surcharge or rebates accordingly."

So since then TNB coal price fluctuations is no more a great risk to TNB profitability .

There are plenty of information in the annual report one can read, it is quite technical in nature though.

any body has information TNB derives how much profits from its distribution sectors verus its own power generations operations as it has the sole distribution rights for the power generated by IPPs ? Even solar power generation ventures will have to depend on TNB distribution network to reach end users. A monopoly.

waiting for more positive results of Q4 and it would fly beyond the 50 sen barrier too !

There are some validity or reasonable points of mymb’s cautions on the impacts of coal price on TNB profitability if the Edge report is accurate as the report is dated. However it is not easy to time what is the best price to buy though mymb’s argument is to buy on reversing up trend instead of catching the falling knife.The questions is on its share valuations , at which point is reasonable ?
Tenaga is a heavy infrastructure , monopolistic business in distribution but share power generations sector though with IPPs . It has low ROE but relatively safe and distributes large proportion of its profitability.

It suits investors with medium to long term view but not typical share traders who expect fast money out of its share price volatility .

Apart the impact from its fuel costs , I see it’s profitability is also on the overall electricity demands from the economy ; the later is very much GDP dependent.I am also trying to understand the mechanism ( if any ) of costs passing / saving of fuel oil / coal price fluctuations to consumers in TNB business though as investor. Anybody can help here ?

I do appreciate mymb’s cautions though may not be 100 % agreeable to some . I can’t accept apple168’s near fear mongering claims of manufacturing sectors collapse just citing Silverstone tyre factory case. There are thousands of other factories still running and Many factories in E& E
sectors are booming lately. Hence my curiosity on the electrical power demands in Malaysia .

Q4 results would be out any time now before end Feb

@John Zhang,

TNB rely more on gas turbine power station than coal fired power stations to produce electricity. Isnt there a price adjustment mechanism to consumer whenever the coal or gas price changes substantially ?

@ Titan Mm78, go to tnb website. There is a investor deck they present every Q. Your can get some info there

Thanks Titan. Will check out for any interesting information there for the latest electrical demand statistics.

The closing of the Silverstone Tye factory is a sad story especially to me as I was the engineer who designed the whole factory steam system more than 30 years ago. Always feel nostalgic about the factory and stare at it with pride each time I drive past it. It’s closure is a case of Silver stone brand not selling well eventually. Not the end of manufacturing industry though but simply Toyo Tyre management recognises the factory has aged and hence shift the production to a more advance factory it seems. It is norm old factories will be replaced with more efficient one in manufacturing industries though. No big deal to TNB.

Electronic and electrical Manufacturing boomed lately and they are the big users of electricity. Check the price of technical stocks , you will know their business is growing fast.