Interest rates,

I am inclined to agree with the market that we are at (or close to) peak interest rates here.

I may disagree with the exact timing on interest rates cuts, and the exact magnitude of cuts.

But big picture wise, I agree that the next big move from the Feds is likely to be interest rate cuts in 2024.

Sidenote that as of Nov 2023, the Feds have been on “pause” for about 5 months.

And history tells us that the Feds usually “pause” for 6 – 12 months before starting to cut.

So timing wise it does seem to point towards 2024 interest rate cuts.

All this is bullish for stock (from an interest rates perspective).

Copy and paste:

What happens next...?

From a macro perspective, there are 2 big factors driving stock prices the next 12 – 24 months:

- Interest Rates
- Recession (or not)

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/investing-ideas/gentings-higher-68-billion-capex-rws-not-worry

Genting's higher $6.8 billion capex on RWS not a worry..

GenM 昨日再冲前三步。。希望今日再勇敢的冲。冲。冲

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/11/here-come-the-rate-cuts-2/

Here come the rate cuts..

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/11/15/crude-palm-oil-price-likely-to-climb-next-year

Crude palm oil price likely to climb next year

Both airlines (Scoot and SIA) carried just under 3.1 million passengers in October, up 36.1 per cent from October 2022. This was also higher than the 2.9 million passengers they carried in September.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/sia-group-passenger-traffic-245-year-year-october

SIA Group passenger traffic up 24.5% year on year in October

Go go Genting M

Let's goreng hari ini.. 👍👍👍

300m profit.. I can smell it 😋

https://www.thestreet.com/rates/your-loan-rates-may-plunge-if-ubs-fed-forecast-is-correct

Your loan rates may plunge if UBS's Fed forecast is correct

Let's goreng... huat arrr

450 coming.. 拜拜 Bye-Bye 430

260 coming.. 拜拜 Bye-Bye 250

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/15/wholesale-prices-fell-0point5percent-in-october-for-biggest-monthly-drop-since-april-2020.html

Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in October for biggest monthly drop since April 2020

Wholesale prices in October posted their biggest decline in 2½ years, providing another indication that the worst of the inflation surge may have passed.

The producer price index, which measures final-demand costs for businesses, declined 0.5% for the month, against expectations for a 0.1% increase from the Dow Jones consensus, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The department said that was the biggest monthly decline since April 2020.

不升都不行了.... go go Genting

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/15/wholesale-prices-fell-0point5percent-in-october-for-biggest-monthly-drop-since-april-2020.html

Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in October for biggest monthly drop since April 2020

Wholesale prices in October posted their biggest decline in 2½ years, providing another indication that the worst of the inflation surge may have passed.

The producer price index, which measures final-demand costs for businesses, declined 0.5% for the month, against expectations for a 0.1% increase from the Dow Jones consensus, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The department said that was the biggest monthly decline since April 2020.

錯过250，也许要等多十年了...

輪也該輪到GenM, it's GenM's showtime tomorrow

GenM今早跳空高开..再向前冲了三步。。表明涨势强劲

跳空通常在股价大变动的开始或结束前出现，向上跳空表明涨势强劲，向下跳空表明跌势惊人。 跳空是明确趋势开始的重要标志，跳空缺口越大表明趋势越明朗。

今早跳空高开..再向前冲了三步。。表明涨势强劲

跳空通常在股价大变动的开始或结束前出现，向上跳空表明涨势强劲，向下跳空表明跌势惊人。 跳空是明确趋势开始的重要标志，跳空缺口越大表明趋势越明朗。

輪也該輪到GenM, it's GenM's showtime tomorrow

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/hot-stock-genting-climbs-much-118-after-q3-results-beat-expectations

Hot stock: Genting climbs as much as 11.8% after Q3 results beat expectations

实战技巧：

(1)现实中的双底形态多数存在着两个低点不相称的情况，这种情况下形态同样成立，但形态反转效果略有不同；

(2)第二底形成并突破颈线过程必须要有成交量的配合，如果量能不发放大跟进，则反转力度将大打折扣，或有诱多风险；

(3)形态构筑时间越长，后视效果越长。一般来说，双底形态形成的时间在半年至一年以来最为有效；

(4)双底形态形成过程如果有技术指标的配合，这效果更佳；

(5)双底的第二个底一般比第一个底量能更低；

(7)双底的计算方式：突破颈线位后的上涨幅度等于(或超过)低点到颈线位的幅度。

备注：

(1)上升力度不如头肩底，但如双底形成较长，半年甚至一年以上，其上升力度可以不可小觑

(2)筑底时间小于一个月，其信号较弱

TP 530

乱乱說hor..

技术含义:

(1)在一轮下跌结束之际，会因为市场的超跌形成反弹，抄底买盘推动反弹上涨，此处反弹是第一个底部形，而后因获利盘打压再度回落至前期低点附近。再次回落至前期低点附近时空方力量已经衰竭，无力再创新低。多头资金发力股价回升并突破上次反弹高点，双底形态形成。

(2)理论上，双底形态的反转高度将是一个形态高度，即价格最低点与颈线之间的垂直高度。

双底(DoubleBottoms)又称W底，是K线形态中常见的底部形态之一。当股价两次到达某个价位时均受到多头支撑而形成。

特征
(1)在下跌中形成。
(2)由两个波谷形成，左右两个波谷a和b的低点基本相同。
(3)第二个波谷形成时，成交量季度萎靡。
(4)向上突破时，成交量明显放大。
(5)在突破压力线之后，常常有回抽，在颈线附近止跌回升，从而确认向上突破有效。

GenB 符合双底形态嗎？

Copy and paste..

What is priced into the market?

Historically speaking – the Feds usually hold rates steady for about 6 – 12 months on average, before cutting rates.

That would mean interest rate cuts some time in 1H 2024.

This is in line with what is priced into the market today:

- 36% chance of 1 more rate hike.
- 38% chance of the first rate cut in January 2024.
- 4 rate cuts in 2024.

Truly good news...10-year Treasury yield tumbles below 4.5% on cool October inflation report... GenB to rise higher tomorrow 👍

Genting Singapore shares gain following 3QFY2023 earnings that beat estimates.. 👍

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/genting-singapore-shares-gain-following-3qfy2023-earnings-beat-estimates

Genting Singapore's $6.8 billion expansion spend, announced by the company on Nov 10, far exceeds the $5 - $5.5 billion capex projected by DBS Group Research..

看这种(GenM )pattern ，等着被收割

Drowned in the ocean.. Can GenM resurface once more?

它会否重新浮出水面.. b4 the q3 financial reporting ？

It will rises and shines in the afternoon. Fasten your seatbelt. ✨️ 💛

I like public bank, target price 380

Those waiting at 380.. I suggest... they can board GenM

For sure.. many have boarded in the morning... have a safe journey!!

Push thru 428.. you can make it!

Good. ..slow and steady
Genting berhad is on the way to 5 by year end.. go go GenB

Gap up.. push thru' 427/428 at opening

Ensure.. everything is ready for cruise embarkation

GenB.. go go

Sekarang.. kena drowned by sea

Tetapi... its share price need to浮出水面

Look at the share price of GenM..., it resembles a massive submarine submerged in the sea... drowned by the 🌊 . 😀

Can it resurface once more? 它会否重新浮出水面？

https://www.ggrasia.com/rws-expansion-likely-over-budget-ready-maybe-2028/

RWS expansion likely over budget, ready maybe 2028.. long way to go

if it's less than 250m, we'll meet Pinky... at 380

To be conservative.. its earnings should be a small positive

Taurx is like a dream, macam.. hoping that its earnings can reach 500 million 😀

Some might disagree, but running its operations in the UK and US could be burdensome for the business

Aside from the hefty impairment..., GenM's business might pose a challenge.

Strong cash position..

In a world of rising interest rates and everyone is concerned about interest repayment, the adage that “cash is king” can’t be more true. 

Genting Singapore happens to be one of the companies that is sitting on quite abit of cash. 

As of 31 December 2021, it has cash in excess of its debt of more than S$3 billion. 

👍