India, Africa, South America will continue to use more oil and coal. While develop countries will need more natural gas for power generation if they want to use more EV while using more petrol n diesel hybrids. China will use more of both.

The price of hibiscus is partly due to the short selling by funds. Similar to the gloves shorting past years. Difference in situation is Hibiscus capacity is expanding n making good cashflows while the glove making are cutting the capacity due to oversupply. Look at what the price Harta now, is almost 100% increased. Same will happen here but maybe more.

Aiyo oil price now still so much higher than 2017-2019, where got low. Production volume also higher but crude oil mix has dropped to 50% and 50% gas. Only thing lower is the share price of Hibiscus vs that period.

Just compare the production qty, oil price and USD/MYR for now vs 2018-2019. Without capex, they can easily pay rm0.50 dividend. Want or dont want only. Why dont want ownself figure out.

No idea. Oil and gas sector most people think not sexy, not much player want to put in for long term. Probably need a lot more quarters and increasing profit and dividend to pull people in.

90 mill net profit should be easily achievable this FY. So 27mil of dividends worst case scenario. More to come

Still no analyst coverage for this stock. I guess they cant get any tickets, one of the hardest ticket to get on bursa. Cant wait for next quarter result.

Hibiscus has only started paying quarterly dividend since FY23. Now they have to prove to market they can increase their dividend yearly from here, then their share price have high chance to follow. Can they do that by increasing annual production? Check and do your due diligemce.

1. Hibiscus cost per barrel is definitely lower than Petronas. Means that Hibiscus production capabilty and efficiency is much much better than Petronas. Just like Puspakom Gross Profit and efficiency will be better if managed by local company.
2. Petronas need to pay a lot to F1, advertising, sponsorship etc and commit a lot of dividend to government, Hibiscus just pay shareholders a bit of dividend.
3. Lower oil price is good for Hibiscus and the world as it will encourage less capex on exploration. Compare the oil price and production qty at 2019 vs current qty and the USD/MYR.
4. US cheap and easy to reach 1st tier oil wells are depleting FAST, thus the stagnant production this year. 2nd tier wells are higher cost and need more capex, thus the drop in US oil rigs.
5. USD75-85 is the best oil price for Hibiscus

Doesnt seem revenue and profit affected. DCR should remain elevated or move higher. The margin of safety is the value of their rigs. Even China cannot build that cheap

Anyone have updates on SK433? Wellhead installed it seems

Hayo, i emphasize useless is that because u cannot predict oil price this year or next year. Did u predict 2020 pirce? No right. But they delivered on 2020 production figures which they plan to do. Can they produce 35,000 boe/day in 2025/26 as they plan to do? I think highly likely and share price also highly likely to follow proportionally.

It wil probably move when you least expected. Again, its useless to focus on OIL PRICE. You rather buy futures if want to earn from oil price movement. E & P companies are valued on production PROMISES & barrels SOLD, cashflow, dividend payback and sometimes share buybacks.

There is no reason or fundamental for oil going to 150. It will basically reduce a lot of demand. USD75-85 for this year is excellent. The best scenorio is we get a mild recession for this cycle to move longer.

Ignore price, as no one can control. Focus on production delivery and expansion. Looks like higher interest rate for longer maybe able to trigger a mild recession will be good for less exploration ie supply.

Ignore oilprice. Focus on production and cashflow. High interest rates and lower end oil price is good for supply. Pray for a mild recession would be a bonus!

Fundamentals extremely solid, while bringing in a lot ca$$$$h. Hope it doesn't spike too fast. Collect patiently guys

Red sea tension was always there. The premium is already priced in. Forecast oil shd be in range of USD75-85 this year. Hope hibiscus can smoothly execute their production increase to 35k barrels as soon,.

To EPF is such a small amount only, only using RM52 million( assume average price: rm2.60) to buy since 29 Sept 2023. But definitely looking at the coming years increasing output and dividends.

Imagine Petronas valued at 2 year cashflow, is it buy? Is Hibiscus management very much worse than Petronas? Can they still pay dividend if oil drop to say USD65?

Next profit catalyst or growth would be how they able to execute and deliver on their onshore oilfield.

Beaides ROE, what is their business prospect to grow for the next 2-5 years. And are they able to deliver on their plan to grow or just maintain the same profit every year will determine the share price movement

Cannot expect too high prices if u want to stimulate demand or preventing countries to switch to other sources of energy. Mankind wont suffer any energy crisis, any crisis is political made news. Nuclear is the best, cleanest and cheapest source of energy if politically allowed.

Recent retracement is with very low volume. No changes in fundamental, is it not an oppurtunity to accumulate at 1.5times of annual cashflow. (given oil at usd75-80 floor). US just started refilling their SPR yesterday.

Sanctions are useless and never works ALL of the time in history. It is just a political tool(wayang untuk rakyat dan pengundi). War or not, everyone wants to earn MONEY only.

Proven again that sanctions never ever worked, as with past sanctions. https://www.ft.com/content/09e8ee14-a665-4644-8ec5-5972070463ad

This is what the price should be. Dont expect a bull cucle with elevated prices. Simple ecomomics

Velesto most priced value are their drilling assets. As nobody want to go into these capital intenssive assets and harder to get financing. The common masses are Illusioned by the EV and esg narrative while thinking oil and gas is a sunset industry. Replacement cost for these assets will only go higher as who wants to invest at these low DCR rate and high interest rates. The problem with velesto is their weak management.

Is best not to go above usd100. If it happens, china will release its SPR it collected past few months. Saudi can increase their production. US also can use their SPR to stabilise the price. usd80-90 the longer the better

The 2 events that proven to really bring down oil prices is the us shale revolution and covid. Even israel at war today can only bring oil price up temporarily. Nobody can predict oil price movement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CYhd-WwO8I

Dont be naive. Even with sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, oil or any other commodity will always find its way into the black market. Same as capping russian oil is useless, their income on oil grew even more. Dont believe what the western media say.

Dont hope for oil to go too high. If it can range itself at usd80-90 is the best. Over usd100 will invite demand destruction and supply to come online. This is what OPEC is trying to control. Above usd100, they will increase production. At usd80 dead, the cashflow will pay you back in 20 months. Cheers!

Change from rm2.99 to rm3.65. All this TP is irrelevant, just to con unseasoned investors. Definitely growing but wont be growing as rapidly as before when they were smallish.

Shouldn't be hard to surpass Yr2019 earnings, either this year or next whilst getting more jobs on the way.

But management quality, balance sheet, cashflows and dividends are better than carimins and Uzma's

Anyone working in OFS here? Is the industry lacking in technical staffing locally? Any updates or news on SK433?

@twnstar. I very much agree with you on how well Hibiscus managing their capex vs other companies. Their management team is VERY under-apprecaited. I believe the oil bull is only now in the middle innings. Based on thesisnarrative of peak oil, esg and many years of underinvestment, this cycle might be longer than previous ones. Besides, CIMB and Maybank have not come out with research reports yet, which CONFIRMS that current pricing is still too good to be true. I'm quite confident it will reach rm3 one day. If a recession comes next year, the cycle will be even longer. Cheers!

Management execution and planning seems and proven to be weak. I foresee more inflation coming and staying sticky. I think will achieve growth but not to their full potential. Saying this, there are many other weaker managed companies elsewhere. Just cant go in big on this counter.

Yea bois, collect colect collect slowly

@sunnyguy. Are you from Oil n Gas sector? Why so many services company u choose MHB. Im more heavy on Deleum, Penergy, T7Global. Adding onto MHB just base on high confidence on sector but no confidence on the management, solely base on track record and their ability to generate cash flow.

Oil and gas sector is badly understood. Spike in oil price wont affect service compannies. Even more so now as nobody wants to work in this industry. Its going to be bullish for many years to come

Any long term investors in oil and gas sector left?

I noticed not much people in Oil and Gas giving comment. Mostly are retail investors but i feel upcycle just only started. Recession or not, oil is inelastic short term. Energy transition needs fossil fuels even more. Such a good opportune time

Markets always get hype about getting projects. Most critical is the execution power of the team and to deliver sustained solid earnings. Anyone in O&G have insight into their management quality and culture?

hi. Anyone can explain why the heavy engineering segment always report losses. The last time they make profit was 2014/15 period. And it always contributes ca.80% of revenue

Halo. I think it is not the yield that is critical. It is the earnings/order book sustainability and growth prospect for the next years. For FPi, the management doesn't disclose much thus not much funds have any first hand information which always keep market in balance.

Why no research house tracking FPi after so many years ?
Vs PIE and Scope, which one of the company u guys think will have more solid and sustainable growth going forward for the next 4-5 years?

You cannot take USD70 as the ASP new norm of nitrile gloves, my friend.
For PBT margin, topglove's average Operating EBIT margin for the past 10 years is only 10%. Your calculation is too unconservative.
The background and track record of Mr Yee Voon Hun is also not stated and the eligibility like FDA/EU approvals of his current LATEX gloves is unknown.

You just need to calculate the ASP increment and multiply by units sold per month, then minus 30% tax rate. You will get the extra profit generated due to price increase

You are using RM for quarter 3 calculation instead of USD. So the units sold are all wrong