Gloves Sector Flash Update (UOBKH)

USTR Raised China Surgical Gloves Tariffs to 50-100%

In a 105-pages official announcement just released, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced final modifications on the statutory review of earlier tariff actions on China.

This is an update from earlier proposed modifications announced in May 2024.

Key updates are on: new timing and tariffs rates on face masks, medical gloves, needles, and syringes. Also includes: i) a proposal regarding coverage of additional tungsten, wafers, and polysilicon tariff lines; ii) an exclusion for ship-to-shore cranes ordered prior to May 2024; iii) an expansion of the scope of the machinery exclusions process; iv) and modification of the coverage of proposed exclusions for solar manufacturing equipment.

To recall back in May, US increases higher tariff of 25% (from current 7.5%) on China’s rubber medical and surgical gloves’ exports beginning 2026.

The tariffs on China medical gloves are now raised to 50% in 2025, and 100% in 2026. Refer to page 18-19 of the under medical gloves segment, “The U.S. Trade Representative has determined to increase the rate of additional duties on medical gloves to 50 percent in 2025 and to 100 percent in 2026.”

This higher tariffs were not entirely a surprise, as we’ve been taking a leap of faith and highlighted possibilities of further detrimental policies towards China’s exports. Our contrarian OVERWEIGHT rating on the Malaysian glove sector were also largely premised on such potential scenario.

This steep tariff hike modification on China gloves undoubtedly solidify Malaysian glove industry’s market leader position and allays earlier concerns on market share losses due to stiff competition.

We expect share prices of Malaysian and Singapore glove stocks to strongly react towards this newsflow._

Maintain BUY on Harta (RM2.42/TP:RM3.66); Top Glove (RM0.915/TP:RM1.45) and Kossan (RM1.83/TP:RM2.42).

Next meaningful sector event will be Top Glove’s 4QFY24 results releasing on 10th October.

Gloves Sector Flash Update (UOBKH)

USTR Raised China Surgical Gloves Tariffs to 50-100%

In a 105-pages official announcement just released, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced final modifications on the statutory review of earlier tariff actions on China.

This is an update from earlier proposed modifications announced in May 2024.

Key updates are on: new timing and tariffs rates on face masks, medical gloves, needles, and syringes. Also includes: i) a proposal regarding coverage of additional tungsten, wafers, and polysilicon tariff lines; ii) an exclusion for ship-to-shore cranes ordered prior to May 2024; iii) an expansion of the scope of the machinery exclusions process; iv) and modification of the coverage of proposed exclusions for solar manufacturing equipment.

To recall back in May, US increases higher tariff of 25% (from current 7.5%) on China’s rubber medical and surgical gloves’ exports beginning 2026.

The tariffs on China medical gloves are now raised to 50% in 2025, and 100% in 2026. Refer to page 18-19 of the under medical gloves segment, “The U.S. Trade Representative has determined to increase the rate of additional duties on medical gloves to 50 percent in 2025 and to 100 percent in 2026.”

This higher tariffs were not entirely a surprise, as we’ve been taking a leap of faith and highlighted possibilities of further detrimental policies towards China’s exports. Our contrarian OVERWEIGHT rating on the Malaysian glove sector were also largely premised on such potential scenario.

This steep tariff hike modification on China gloves undoubtedly solidify Malaysian glove industry’s market leader position and allays earlier concerns on market share losses due to stiff competition.

We expect share prices of Malaysian and Singapore glove stocks to strongly react towards this newsflow._

Maintain BUY on Harta (RM2.42/TP:RM3.66); Top Glove (RM0.915/TP:RM1.45) and Kossan (RM1.83/TP:RM2.42).

Next meaningful sector event will be Top Glove’s 4QFY24 results releasing on 10th October.

Gloves Sector Flash Update (UOBKH)

USTR Raised China Surgical Gloves Tariffs to 50-100%

In a 105-pages official announcement just released, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced final modifications on the statutory review of earlier tariff actions on China.

This is an update from earlier proposed modifications announced in May 2024.

Key updates are on: new timing and tariffs rates on face masks, medical gloves, needles, and syringes. Also includes: i) a proposal regarding coverage of additional tungsten, wafers, and polysilicon tariff lines; ii) an exclusion for ship-to-shore cranes ordered prior to May 2024; iii) an expansion of the scope of the machinery exclusions process; iv) and modification of the coverage of proposed exclusions for solar manufacturing equipment.

To recall back in May, US increases higher tariff of 25% (from current 7.5%) on China’s rubber medical and surgical gloves’ exports beginning 2026.

The tariffs on China medical gloves are now raised to 50% in 2025, and 100% in 2026. Refer to page 18-19 of the under medical gloves segment, “The U.S. Trade Representative has determined to increase the rate of additional duties on medical gloves to 50 percent in 2025 and to 100 percent in 2026.”

This higher tariffs were not entirely a surprise, as we’ve been taking a leap of faith and highlighted possibilities of further detrimental policies towards China’s exports. Our contrarian OVERWEIGHT rating on the Malaysian glove sector were also largely premised on such potential scenario.

This steep tariff hike modification on China gloves undoubtedly solidify Malaysian glove industry’s market leader position and allays earlier concerns on market share losses due to stiff competition.

We expect share prices of Malaysian and Singapore glove stocks to strongly react towards this newsflow._

Maintain BUY on Harta (RM2.42/TP:RM3.66); Top Glove (RM0.915/TP:RM1.45) and Kossan (RM1.83/TP:RM2.42).

Next meaningful sector event will be Top Glove’s 4QFY24 results releasing on 10th October.

Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24
Harta's Sales volume (bil pieces) 5.7 4.3 4.6 4.5 5.6 5.9

Q3 is expected to be at 2.2b per month ( 6.6b per Qr)

volume is increasing but ASP is quite flattish i guess the industry wide is still facing oversupply issue but we are near to equilibrium as Harta / Kossan are no longer in losses anymore

demand < supply = losses
demand = supply = slight/zero profit
demand > supply = profit

its just part of the cycle

@kimsua
for Harta ,

Q2 sales volume at 5.9b
but 0.6b was delayed
it means 10% of the revenue was not recognized , which i think was quite serious especially the margin is at razor thin now

@kimsua
USTR tariff will be implemented in 2026 - not too far away actually ( about 16 months away )
consider the long lead time and shipment time from China firms
probably the orders will come to Malaysia as soon as Q2 2025

@beginner888
Harta & Kossan have similar PBT margin % if you exclude non cash / non operating cost like impairment , decommissioning cost , ramp up cost and etc.

its at 6-7% in Q2 - not too bad but not impressive enough. it all depends on upcoming sales order momentum.

@Chipee
you know Kossan's non glove division for eg. Technical Rubber division contributed only 10% of the overall revenue but it contributed almost 30% of its PBT right ?

theres no right way to have 100% apple to apple comparison but we try to close the gap as much as possible to see the clearer picture

@beginner888
for kossan you have to sort out the gloves division part
its 6.26% instead of 9.0%

Harta PBT margin 7%
Kossan (gloves division) PBT margin 6.26%
and yes theres some shipment delays ( not sure how much , but harta had around 10% sales volume delay )

unless your expectation was not realistic if not its within the line

dont focus on ASP or PAT..
most importantly utilisation rate ( sales volume ) has to go up
price (profit) will only go up if the sales volume (utilisation rate) picks up
eventually things will normalize

EPF is back !

My Stock Picks for 2024:
1. Hartalega 25%
2. Kossan 25%
3. Supermax 25%
4. TopGlove 25%

https://www.bharian.com.my/berita/nasional/2023/10/1160643/kabinet-akan-putuskan-jika-subsidi-telur-ayam-diteruskan

https://www.bharian.com.my/berita/nasional/2023/10/1160643/kabinet-akan-putuskan-jika-subsidi-telur-ayam-diteruskan

https://www.bharian.com.my/berita/nasional/2023/10/1160643/kabinet-akan-putuskan-jika-subsidi-telur-ayam-diteruskan

Kabinet akan putuskan jika subsidi telur, ayam diteruskan

rumors saying Lau family will privatize Teoseng

second highest EPS since IPO... TP 1.5

volume starts to pick up..

@supersaiyan yes can talk to chicken traders around. price is still high. good export margin expected. Fama website can check the latest price too.

https://www.fama.gov.my/harga-pasaran-terkini

teoseng breaking RM1. whens layhong turn

RM 1 gogogo

sharebuyback again.. something is brewing

@CharlesT
in total yes the entire industry will be making the same
but the smaller scale players will be eaten up by the bigger scale players.
Thats why these listed big boys profit has been trending up despite the price control

Cab has made 70m PAT in FY23 and we have two more quarters to go. Maintaining the price cap with massive subsidies is bullish for big poultry players !

Subsidy is about RM200m per month. With or without price cap all the big boys have been showing all time high profits with such a massive amount of subsidises. The latest new is actually bullish for big poultry players.

PETALING JAYA: Pemberian subsidi ayam dan telur akan berakhir pada 30 Jun dan pengapungan harga bermula pada 1 Julai, kata Menteri Pertanian dan Keterjaminan Makanan Mohamad Sabu.

Perkara tersebut dimaklumkan menerusi jawapan lisan menjawab pertanyaan Mas Ermieyati Samsudin (PN-Masjid Tanah) berhubung tempoh harga ayam dan telur akan diapung.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/bahasa/tempatan/2023/06/07/subsidi-ayam-telur-berakhir-30-jun-kata-mat-sabu/

PETALING JAYA: Pemberian subsidi ayam dan telur akan berakhir pada 30 Jun dan pengapungan harga bermula pada 1 Julai, kata Menteri Pertanian dan Keterjaminan Makanan Mohamad Sabu.

Perkara tersebut dimaklumkan menerusi jawapan lisan menjawab pertanyaan Mas Ermieyati Samsudin (PN-Masjid Tanah) berhubung tempoh harga ayam dan telur akan diapung.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/bahasa/tempatan/2023/06/07/subsidi-ayam-telur-berakhir-30-jun-kata-mat-sabu/

First sharebuyback by the management after 4 years .something is brewing ?

stronger SGD is good for exporters to Singapore..

stronger SGD is good for exporters to Singapore..

stronger SGD is good for exporters to Singapore..

stronger SGD is good for exporters to Singapore..

first dividend since 2020

10% price swing this morning. This ayam is volatile.!

free warrants ex date 26 May. Congratz to all the shareholders.

5/30 WA's last trading day
6/1 Dividend Ex date.

Price will go higher after June 1.

52 weeks high... fly...

feed cost has come down alot. check Cbot ZC price.

feed cost has come down alot. check Cbot ZC price.

feed cost has come down alot. check Cbot ZC price.

feed cost has come down alot. check Cbot ZC price.

feed cost has come down alot. check Cbot ZC price.

back to 0.7 !

layhong too had resumed its dividend policy after 2 years pause.

actually whole industry is undervalued.
PWF ,CCK just announced their highest dividend ever
LHI just resumed its dividend payout
CAB announced free warrants
LTKM privatized
SinMah divested its poultry business

whole industry barely move.

@GorengWatch yes freefloat is very low.
@raymondlim poultry is unpopular among funds/ retailers and tightly controlled by insiders (sadly most of them are farmers who dont quite understand how financial market works)
also its a low margin cyclical industry. profit cycle moves up and down rapidly. risk premium is huge. invest at your own risk.

@raymondlim
i am looking at 100-120m this year.
Subsidies + price cap is actually good for big broilers players ( not layers ). market share has been increasing a lot in the past 2 years.
now the GP stocks are in huge shortage due to bird flu- expect the DOC price to remain high in the near future. Those who control the GP stocks farming will make huge profits in the next 2-3 quarters

DOC price has come down a little due to weak demand after 45 days - post ramadan effects. but the profit expected to be good in the next few quarters. dont forget the free float policy after june ( state elections to be precise ).

@supersaiyan3
IMO all these veterans (regardless any industry) always have their own biased views (tend to be overly bearish) towards the industry.
i had talked to FLFAM insiders , some private and public listed companies in the past 2 years i will say 99% of them are extremely bearish towards poultry industry but the result speaks otherwise.