For HY, they have the option of producing the CCG (Gasoline) by converting Gasoil by Catalytic cracking . Since the Gasoil margins are way higher than gasoline, they will refrain from converting the gasoil to gasoline and obtain yield exceeding 44 % for Diesel.

PetronM being a simple refiner do not have these options, and for certain their Fuel Oil will not have very low sulfur as the distillation process will enrich non-hydrocarbon components at the bottom.

yes....all the holymen at the top knows that the religion is bullshit made to have some order in community but it no longer serve any purpose in the modern world

only with religion u can play politics...by dividing people

Diesel Crisis Likely to Stay Unfixed by Oil Refining Revival

15 June 22'

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/diesel-crisis-likely-to-stay-unfixed-by-oil-refining-revival

“There is little hope that the undersupply will ease in the near future given strong demand growth and constrained refinery output,” the IEA said. The agency’s forecast for future refining processing is “not sufficient to fully meet middle distillates demand in 2022 or in 2023.”

Imagine there's no heaven
It's easy if you try
No hell below us
Above us, only sky
Imagine all the people
Livin' for today
Ah
Imagine there's no countries
It isn't hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion, too
Imagine all the people
Livin' life in peace
You
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will be as one
Imagine no possessions
I wonder if you can
No need for greed or hunger
A brotherhood of man
Imagine all the people
Sharing all the world
You
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will live as one

listen to the song 'Imagine' by John Lennon

go through the lyrics - he said all need to be said

unfortunately not many could appreciate its true meanings or have the ability to imagine that deeply

he even got shot by a religious catholic

no wonder Binh Son delivered USD 420 million in a single quarter (without hedging)

crack spread for Diesel in June was 55USD/brl

no wonder Binh Son delivered USD 420 million in a single quarter (without hedging)

crack spread for Diesel in June was 55USD/brl

You need to copy paste the complete address below on your browser to see:

DIESEL crack spread:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

you average up with Gasoline, you still get USD/25/brl!

You need to copy paste the complete address below on your browser to see:

DIESEL crack spread:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

you average up with Gasoline, you still get USD/25/brl!

See the changes in GASOIL (DIESEL) crack spread after Mar 22'

Q2 will be explosive due to Diesel

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/


Only complex refinery like HENGYUAN can selectively produce GASOIL (i.e DIESEL) at 44% of its output

See below pie chart:

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/davidtslim/136032

See the changes in GASOIL (DIESEL) crack spread after Mar 22'

Q2 will be explosive due to Diesel

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/


Only complex refinery like HENGYUAN can selectively produce GASOIL (i.e DIESEL) at 44% of its output

See below pie chart:

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/davidtslim/136032

guess it has other contributor than its refinery..perhaps retail side too as they said benefited from local fuel price

USD 424 Million is too high for 130k bpd refinery in a single qtr

OMG! USD 424 million for a 130,00 bpd refinery??

HY is 156,000 bpd

..........

(US$424 million) in the second quarter, up by nearly six times from a year earlier, the company said on Tuesday.

Binh Son, which owns a 130,000-barrel-per-day refinery in central Vietnam


Posted by AC Lee > Jul 29, 2022 9:23 PM | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/07/26/vietnam039s-petroleum-flagship-binh-son-refinery-q2-net-profit-soars-yy-to-us424mil

HY refining margin currently is above 18 USD/brl.

Average refining margin in June is 28 USD/brl.

If in Aug its maintained at 18 USD/brl, Q3 profit which lags by 1 month (due to hedging principle it is based on June, July & Aug ) is secured at average 22 USD/brl.

PAT shall be calculated with 10.5 million barrel sales and current USD-MYR exchange rate.

...

Do not be misled by purely looking at gasoline crack spread

to all investors here including Zhuge_Liang, suggest to stay silent till the Q2 results are out...

Those giving misleading speculation by selectively showing crack spread drop of gasoline, harping on hedging uncertainty etc will continue to do so as long as you comment here

The refining margin is a composite - collective crack of Diesel, Gasoline, Kerosene, LNG etc which is currently having spot value exceeding 20 USD/brl at south east asian market.

Complex refiner like HY has the ability to selectively increase output of diesel in favor of gasoline

I bet naysayers here do not know the crack spread of Diesel and Kerosene

Take note even if the composite value drops to 13 USD/brl, HY will earn EPS exceeding RM 1 per QTR! Exchange rate from USD to RM is increasingly in favor.

The actual refining margin data will be disclosed when the results are out at end of Aug'.

Till then appreciate your silence and you will be immensely rewarded. Thanks

aiyo, you have upper hand now..as you came after price depress..you can boast around...i surrender boss

bongok...coz u quickly start attacking ma...before even seeing what i am trying to tell

you hands always on your pocket to take out your guns looks like

we can play shooting when price is much nicer than this

ha ha...no emotion now....thats more like the state i am in...more like impatience is there

market policy too unpredictable, anything can happen

just need another 2 months without any EU policy changes on russian oil or russian surrendering of course

passed the stage already.... can only hope EU dont change their mind

unlike during gloves time in 2020

does inv banlk ever give TP to HY before? so far i have not seen

sad thing about bursa is it looks as if liquidity has dried up...

no keen big investors other than Koon around to push up prices

retailers strength too low

will have fun some other time

ok -your objective here is really more on attacking commentators but not to seeking the truth

never tried to get into argument with u..so didnt realize the truth in what others had said about u

i wont get involved on such arguments

yup, even at RM 2 is even cheaper...

anyway, stock to the original point here

refinery is not comparable to gloves or palm oil and may visible factors are there

like i said earlier there is only factor for refinery which would adversely effect it - if EU & US decides retract russian oil embargo


till then you can relax on refinery stocks

no effects at all...more interested on logical arguments here


Posted by CharlesT > Jun 25, 2022 11:28 AM | Report Abuse

Btw, my average cost of HY CW n Petronm CW r very much lower than most of u here lah

Dont worry if die all go Holland together....

walao..got true face ka? Si long in i3 with me still cant figure out me ah...aiyoyo...wonder what u actually trust..surely not your kids too

you make money or dont i dont give a damn...in fact i am happy if you are richer so that at least can effect the market...

for sure, if i start arguing with you..i will win but no interest actually..seriously its not motivating at this price...

simple logic la bongok...if crack spread now at 1 USD/brl you give HY at RM also i wont buy...


when u say cheap or expensive must got basis la...plug from sky argument me?

anyway...may as you are always interested to talk about the people than the share, you sold HY last week is it? LOL!

charlest sifu not comparing apple to apple liao...sslee briefing is spot on

crack spread had been going up till to date

what basis is now at RM 4 plus cheap and not cheap at RM 7?

while share price was dropping crack spread rose by another 10 USD/brl already

market got disconnected with crack spread coz spooked by derivatives loss

basically it does not believe there is a connection till its proven

(Malaysian investors are mainly 'chicken' investors now looks like where cheap is measured by their price compared to recent high...LOL!)

yeah, good to reflect...but all i can say predicting future is becoming extremely difficult and history does not rhyme anymore

its always about having competitive edge against market..on whatever aspect it is

anyone can understand whats the take away from this - is Ricky talking about the personality here?

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Jun 22, 2022 11:34 AM | Report Abuse

Lesson: Someone applying various discount % is a sign he doesn't know what he is talking about rather than a way to validate the safeness of an investment. One subtle yet important thing is there’s a difference between applying a margin of safety so you don’t overpay for a stock and applying a nonsensical P/E multiples to value a stock so you can apply a ‘discount’ to justify the price you pay. In the first case, you know what the business is worth with a mindset that things can still go wrong. The latter case is you don’t know the risk you’re taking but nonetheless you try to measure it in a way that persuades yourself it isn’t risky. The investor above shows the latter.

or are we studying personality like freetospeak, OTB and myself...what are you trying to convey

are we talking about the facts that all stocks performance will revert to mean? sincerely trying to know what u are saying here

walao Ricky...just saw my name here...what are u trying to say man?

opinions changes with time and that does not mean they are continuously lying


Posted by Ricky Yeo > Jun 22, 2022 11:35 AM | Report Abuse

16 August 2020 - Market cap: $25 billion
OTB enters the chat and make a bold prediction

"Per = 20, the target price = 50.82. Or $25 after bonus issue. Based on this calculation, the share price of Supermx should be 54.32 (I did not say the price of Supermx will go up to 54.32)."

OTB mentioned that he did not say Supermax will go up to $54.32 but say that is the fair value. That is a good way to protect yourself in case people come back and say you're wrong. You be the judge.

Another investor learning from his uncle who was a fund manager (https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/learnmyuncle/2020-06-28-st...). The retired fund manager remain bullish after Supermax had a week to forget; $6 billion in market value got wiped out in 5 trading days. He advised the young investor to ignore the noise and focus on the fundamentals, "...Supermax is a nett cash company, and they going to gain 1 billion net profit in the following year.."

I hope the young investor did not accumulate at the price point. It would be a suicide.

01 Jan 2021 - Market cap: $16 billion
Supermax market cap crater from $30 bil to $16 bil but Probability remains bullish "supermax...should shine anytime soon...when market realize it would take years for asp rise to dampen"

"Take years for ASP rise to dampen". Sorry Probability. It was already happening as soon as your sentence reaches i3's server.

21 Feb 2021 - Market cap: $13 billion
"we have EPF and big funds to buy...you can imagine why they will never bring down the ASP for next 2 years" - Probability

One of the most famous quotes from Probability "ASP not coming down for next 2 years aka until 2023". He never appeared in Supermax forum since.

charlest always see through intentions of writers than being affected by the content of the writing....

he wants to see what practical opportunity he has in any context than trying to validate or refute once assertions (which is not his strength)

his strength is reading the market (the players) as much as some are reading the stocks' business

betul tak?

Post removed.Why?

sifu, actually what is the meaning of hedge ah?

sifu MM,

what HY need to do hedge 10 years? I am very afraid crack will collapse after russian victory


as such it will be really great if they can hedge for 10 years

let me know what is required from HY to hedge for 10 years?
May be we can give some tips to the management

Post removed.Why?

nevermind give u RM 2 for Q3 if you insist

just want to know what do you mean 6 months terms?


Posted by abc333 > Jun 23, 2022 5:14 PM | Report Abuse

do not underestimated the volume of Hedging loss. who know their swap contract is in 6 months terms or what? EPS 2.00 for second quarter is mush realistic.

Post removed.Why?

By end May, HY secured RM 2 eps, by end of Aug at this rate it will secure another RM 3.60

With RM 5.60 additional cash to its balance sheet, HY will be making recurring earnings even without refining...
by just putting it in FD with higher interest rate environment now.

Lets see how long market can ignore these cash accumulation at the rate of RM 1.20 per month now...

singapore refining margin hit $ 37/brl today

Post removed.Why?

Oil prices have soared. Why won't Opec bring them down?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61188579

Opec+ also has to respect Russia's wishes, since it is one of the two biggest partners in the alliance.

"The Russians are happy with prices at this level," says Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy. "They have nothing to gain in seeing them go lower.

"Opec wants to keep good relations with Russia, so they are most likely to continue with the agreement they all made last year. That means increasing crude supplies very gradually from now until September."

.........

This means oil price can in fact go down without Fed's interest rate hikes.

Fed's interest rate hike is only to pressure OPEC looks like

since all these news are out , market might have already priced in these info...we never know


Posted by skoh888 > Jun 18, 2022 9:15 PM | Report Abuse

I do feel that crude oil will eventually go below USD 100 per barrel with another 75 basis rate hike in July. Just wondering if any stocks will still thrive if we do go into a recession. Maybe keeping cash until there really is blood on the streets?

your observation which i believe is commonly shared by majority of investors including uncle Koon is precisely the reason why HY is at such depressed price

i can put my head on chopping board that HY gross profit will not run away from the reported crack spread data

one simple proof is HY gross profit in Q1. It tallies with the crack spread data.

The derivative loss is contributed by the hedging process which causes its its gross profit to lag by 1 month.

If only they did not use russian oil, their PAT would be reflecting crack reported for Dec, Jan & Feb in Q1 22 lagging by a month.



Posted by Want2MakeMoney > Jun 18, 2022 9:07 PM | Report Abuse

I also want to see Heng Yuan to make good profit in Q2. On one hand think high crack will logically translate to high profit, but if I see past performance, it seems like there is no correlation. in Q3 and Q4 2020 Crack between 2.362 and 3.513, Net Profit was 154 M and 171 M , better than recent quarter. Then from then on , Crack continues to rise and Net Profit was Yo Yo up and down , Q2 and Q3 21 even make a loss with crack higher than H2 2020. And now Q1 22 where crack is between 12 to 21, only make net profit of 42 Million nia, with derivative loss of 400+ million, macam HY team don't know how to do hedging. It seems like there is no correlation at all between high crack and net profit of HY.

ha ha, what a wise comments from sslee

@klee, i have no ability to predict HY share price movement next week and determine the effects of bear market or even know if its a bear market

i am purely waiting for Q2 22'results of HY, which i think when released, HY share price can no way be at current level

further i am optimistic till its results are released in Aug, current market refining margin will still be at very compelling level (just too many fundamental argument to support this)

There is only one factor that can change my view on HY:
........................................................

If EU & US stops Russian oil embargo and decides to take in refined oil products from Russia (which i am quite certain such abrupt policy change if at all happens - wont happen before end of Aug 22')