actually i myself cannot belief the margin information i have.... there appears to be acute shortage of refining capacity worldwide..

at this rate , if the margin persist till end of June...

2nd qtr earnings of Hengyuan can exceed its entire market cap now...

@pang72, on the same article they already mention the below:

Refining margins in Singapore, bellwether for profits at export-oriented refineries in Asia, hit an all-time high of $19.12 a barrel in April as Western sanctions hit Russian supplies while global oil inventories are at multi-year lows.

Purely FYI, the current margin is even higher than above but i will not disclose at the moment

RM 440M per qtr for 67000 bpd (6 million barrels per qtr)

That means approximately USD 17 per barrel profit margin

https://www.reuters.com/article/s-oil-results/update-1-s-koreas-s-oil-sees-q2-refining-margins-staying-firm-on-seasonal-demand-idUKL2N2WP08C

S-Oil reported an operating profit of 1.3 trillion won for the first quarter, up 112% from the year-ago period.

The company said it operated the crude distillation units at its 669,000 barrels-per-day refinery in the southeastern city of Ulsan at 99.6% of capacity on average in the January-March period, up from 98.7% in the fourth quarter.

...........

thats approximately 440 million RM for a 67,000 bpd capacity

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-04-26/valero-kicks-off-u-s-refiners-first-quarter-earnings-with-profit

Refiners' earnings are expected to remain strong in coming quarters as sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine have cut global product inventories at a time when fuel demand has rebounded to near pre-pandemic levels. In addition, numerous facilities have closed in the last year, boosting profitability for existing refiners.

Valero's quarterly refining margin more than doubled to $3.21 billion from a year earlier.

@pang72, there are two errors on the above derivation from KYY posting..

1) EPS calculated above of 50 cents is per month (30 days) not per qtr
2) Refining margin obtained from average crack spread of all products including gasoline & diesel, has to be deducted with 'break even' margin (the cost of production per barrel).

PetronM just announced 20 cents Dividend

thanks for the wishes apple168

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/koonyewyinblog/2021-11-09-story-h1593748000-Never_buy_stocks_in_anticipation_of_future_profit_Koon_Yew_Yin

@apple168, i test your maths intelligence..can you see the error in KYY's EPS derivation on point - 02 on the link you provided...? :)

@apple168, FYI... HRC is beneficiary of weakening RM against USD

The crack spread is in USD/brl and HRC margin (to Shell retail) is fixed on the Singapore crack spread

If this prolongs for a few more months, Earnings can actually exceed the entire market cap of HRC... it will be flushed with cash for expansion. NTA will hit RM 10 easily by end of June.

Hurricane Harvey in 2017 had only momentarily made the crack spread to shoot up about 16 USD/brl....
This 2022 Russia-Ukraine war and China refined oil export tax has triple the power of the hurricane now. They say this can last for 3 years...

Refining margins have hit a high on the back of record-high diesel spreads. Singapore complex hovered between $ 19-20/bbl last week, while diesel spreads have been between $ 40-45/bbl.

https://www.5paisa.com/tamil/blog/indian-omcs-refining-margin-spike-to-continue

@Johnzhang, market have not realized crack spread for Diesel yet....wait till it realize

Check Page 41 on the Annual Report just released

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/staticfile/view/457915

sifu pang72 so silent....

Tips: check page 37 of Hengyuan's annual report (refining margin FIFO)

It will also show what is was like in 2017 (the Hurricane Harvey year)

https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?sc=30800028&year=2022&no=347756

South Korea refiners will likely report strong results in the first quarter while display and battery makers could be disappointing due to slowed demand coupled with spike in raw materials prices.

According to the consensus of seven analysts compiled by Yonhap Infomax, SK Innovation is expected to have raked an operating profit of 1.3 trillion won ($1 billion) for the first quarter, reversing from previous quarter’s loss and doubled from a year earlier. S-Oil is expected to report record-high operating profit of 1.2 trillion won, up 94.9 percent from a year earlier. Its best record so far is 704.1 billion won earned in the second quarter 2008.

“Oil refiners’ profitability has improved sharply as inventory value rose on surging global oil prices while refining margin also jumped, said Cho Hyun-ryeol,” Samsung Securities analyst. “Strengthening in refining margin will likely continue as jet fuel demand is also projected to pick up from the second half,” Cho projected.

Refining margin, the difference between the price of raw materials (crude oil) and price of petroleum products, and which is considered refiner’s key indicator of profitability, has hit a 22-year high recently. Korean refiners see $4 to $5 per barrel a break-even point. The benchmark Singapore gross refining margin (GRM) reached $18.2 per barrel, the highest since recording tracking began in 2000, in the third week of April, after adding $0.8 in a week. Singapore GRM had $6 averaged early this year but rose rapidly to $13.9 per barrel in late March as Western countries sought cutting off Russian oil while global demand for petroleum products continued recovery.

The oil price spike has also helped refiners’ inventory value surge, which is translated as higher profits.

sifu Pang72...lets play Q&A game...

can you guess what will be the PAT of Hengyuan if the crack spread is maintained about 12 USD/brl? :)

those who missed will never get it

Lets see if this could pull in some intelligent information

It shows this new management (after Shell) is good

I mean end of 2015 (NTA 2.25) - end of 2020 (NTA 7.22)

RM 5 in just 5 years.

Hengyuan from 2016 - 2021 (5 years), despite very difficult refining margin managed to increase its NTA by about RM 5, that is like on average RM 1 per year.

For 50% payout, at 5% yield RM 10 is minimum target...

But now with current crack spread, easily RM 1 EPS per QTR!!

@Pang72...just hold tight tight till the results speaks

To sifu Pang72, Stockraider..Annetan and all the senior comrades of i3.. its time to wallop HENGYUAN!

I am in...we are talking about minimum TP of RM 10 here.

both macro & micro factors makes investment in bursa difficult..

local politics is making malaysia appear like the doomed MH370 awaiting crash..as if the pilot is missing

same here fortunebull..i can understand what u r saying..

well said, i seriously prefer the previous format.. @TanKW , thanks for the link

myself left clueless on what is the strategy that works in bursa...simple PE 10 thesis appears to be hidden in the sand for now...as future earnings prediction became increasingly difficult...

i believe with the tech stocks dropping some sanity on valuation will appear to bursa

only Charlest sifu surviving...proven the fittest...most adaptive...just like sifu OTB..does not matter black or white cat..as long as can catch the rat

Orang utan definitely appears more peace loving creature than Zuraida..as all she can think about is killing and being killed..

actually orang utan statement is so apt..cause it kinda make us reflect we malaysia are being governed by apes...

malaysia has become 'country' of the apes..

agree sslee & tobby...LOL!

steel traders margin is good

Nice selection Charlest!
Annjoo and Uzma is clear cut winners to me...

no idea on KPS..can you enlighten a bit?

I see.. Thanks for the info!

Its hitting 4700 now..

Posted by alenac > Dec 16, 2021 3:03 PM | Report Abuse

Good news Chinese local provincial officials has taken over the management of Evergrande to ensure construction of houses continue and completed. Hopefully the demand for steel will pick up further.

CNY 4683 now!

CNY 4683 now!

steel price in China shot up 8% to 4660 in a single day!

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel

China’s coal shortage eases after Beijing steps in, report says
PUBLISHED TUE, NOV 2

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/02/chinas-coal-shortage-eases-after-beijing-steps-in-cba-report-shows.html

European Coal Price Drops Below $100 as China Boosts Output

1 November 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-01/european-coal-price-drops-below-100-as-china-boosts-output

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/imo6f1ae2po4/v2/775x-1.png

Raw material Iron Ore % Coal price dropped by over 40% compared to August

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/iron-ore-price

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal


while finished good steel dropped less than 16% within the same period

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel


This is expected as the coal supply and iron ore supply is more than China's demand by the shut down of polluting Blast Furnace steel makers there


Our local Blast Furnace steel makers margins is only expanding... precious opportunity to accumulate to those who have done the maths

the above truth will reveal itself

Price as of Oct 8:
.................

Iron Ore RM 482
Scrap RM 1,823 – RM 1,961
Billet RM 2,800 – RM 2,950
Rebar RM 3,100- RM3,250
Steel Wire Rod RM 3,200 – RM3,300

Latest Price Oct 29:
..................

Iron OreRM 508
ScrapRM 2,080 – RM 2,113
BilletRM 2,750 – RM 2,900
RebarRM 3,150- RM3,300
Steel Wire RodRM 3,250 – RM3,350


Price very resilient....

uncle when are you moving back to Dayang?

Ismail Sabri: No more quarantine for Malaysian oil rig workers, requirement stands for foreigners

Published on 25 Aug 2020

https://www.thestartv.com/v/ismail-sabri-no-more-quarantine-for-malaysian-oil-rig-workers-requirement-stands-for-foreigners

Malaysians oil and gas workers are no longer required to undergo mandatory quarantine when signing on or off from offshore platforms, says Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob.

He added that Malaysians only need to take swab tests before they sign-on to the platforms and do not need to be quarantined.

If oil price breaks 88 and hits $100, the oil and gas industry chooses stocks not to choose markets

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/897205/%E6%B2%B9%E4%BB%B7%E8%8B%A5%E7%A0%B488-%E4%B8%8A%E6%8E%A2100%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83-%E6%B2%B9%E6%B0%94%E4%B8%9A%E9%80%89%E8%82%A1%E4%B8%8D%E9%80%89%E5%B8%82

Look at the fundamentals before entering the market
Although higher oil prices are beneficial to the oil and gas industry, not all companies benefit from it. Analysts remind investors that they should pay attention to the fundamentals of each company before making a decision.

In order to reflect the benefits of higher crude oil prices, Tat Securities adjusted upwards to Petronas Chemical (PCHEM, 5183, Main Board Industrial Product Service Group), International Shipping (MISC, 3816, Main Board Transportation and Logistics Group) and VELESTO Energy (VELESTO, 5243, Main Board Energy) Group) and other oil and gas stocks’ valuations and target prices.

The bank upgraded Petronas Chemical’s rating from the previous “hold” to “buy”, mainly because the company purchases natural gas raw materials from its parent company Petronas at a lower price, and the cost is relatively low. Some competitors are facing cost pressures caused by rising naphtha raw material prices.

Wu Junsheng said that the oil and gas stocks currently assigned by Hong Leong Investment Bank with a "buy" rating include International Shipping, Armada (ARMADA, 5210, Main Board Energy Group), Dia Le Group (DIALOG, 7277, Main Board Energy Group), and Da Leong Foreign Enterprise (DAYANG, 5141, Main Board Energy Group).

If oil price breaks 88 and hits $100, the oil and gas industry chooses stocks not to choose markets

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/897205/%E6%B2%B9%E4%BB%B7%E8%8B%A5%E7%A0%B488-%E4%B8%8A%E6%8E%A2100%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83-%E6%B2%B9%E6%B0%94%E4%B8%9A%E9%80%89%E8%82%A1%E4%B8%8D%E9%80%89%E5%B8%82

Look at the fundamentals before entering the market
Although higher oil prices are beneficial to the oil and gas industry, not all companies benefit from it. Analysts remind investors that they should pay attention to the fundamentals of each company before making a decision.

In order to reflect the benefits of higher crude oil prices, Tat Securities adjusted upwards to Petronas Chemical (PCHEM, 5183, Main Board Industrial Product Service Group), International Shipping (MISC, 3816, Main Board Transportation and Logistics Group) and VELESTO Energy (VELESTO, 5243, Main Board Energy) Group) and other oil and gas stocks’ valuations and target prices.

The bank upgraded Petronas Chemical’s rating from the previous “hold” to “buy”, mainly because the company purchases natural gas raw materials from its parent company Petronas at a lower price, and the cost is relatively low. Some competitors are facing cost pressures caused by rising naphtha raw material prices.

Wu Junsheng said that the oil and gas stocks currently assigned by Hong Leong Investment Bank with a "buy" rating include International Shipping, Armada (ARMADA, 5210, Main Board Energy Group), Dia Le Group (DIALOG, 7277, Main Board Energy Group), and Da Leong Foreign Enterprise (DAYANG, 5141, Main Board Energy Group).