probability

Probability | Joined since 2014-03-18

Investing Experience Not Disclosed
Risk Profile Moderate

Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.

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Stock

2 days ago | Report Abuse

@Goldgent, i want to pullback uncle Koon from gloves stocks....who knows he may get to buy my ideas....

i need to catch big fishes

Stock

2020-05-02 21:29 | Report Abuse

be confident with your investment...should not get emotional when someone shares a different opinion by scolding retards etc...

i am cool if gloves stocks goes up...supermax reaching even higher than 2 or 3...

in fact i am truly happy if it goes up like that

but we should share some tangible logics why it should so...

Stock

2020-05-02 21:22 | Report Abuse

First coronavirus vaccine could be ready by September in time for possible second wave, China health boss claims

https://www.the-sun.com/news/734425/china-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-september/


Could the world have a coronavirus vaccine by September?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8262645/Vaccine-September-Oxford-team-run-promising-trials-monkeys.html


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/oxford-university-coronavirus-vaccine-trials-covid-19/

For the Oxford Team, the million or so doses will be manufactured by partners in Britain, Europe, India and China, Prof Hill revealed.

And if the vaccine proves to be successful then the team will apply for "emergency use approval" to roll out the inoculation programme immediately.

“All this work has been done unusually quickly,” Prof Hill admitted. But the team is confident the vaccine will be a success.

“There's always an unknown. We can never be certain that these vaccines will work,” said Prof Gilbert. "But personally I think it has a very strong chance of working.”

Stock

2020-05-02 21:09 | Report Abuse

thought you had substance to share to dispute....

dont waste space here lost soul..feels pathetic

do something useful

Stock

2020-05-02 21:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Stock

2020-05-02 21:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Stock

2020-05-02 20:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Stock

2020-05-02 20:52 | Report Abuse

7.26 from 4.6 - share price already rise more than 65%!

Stock

2020-05-02 20:51 | Report Abuse

i correct it for toplove from 20% to 40%...and that is at the end of 2020.

I dont think they can increase capacity more than 20%.\ with current production capacity of ~ 73 Billion pcs per year.

All info can be found here:


https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/world-s-largest-glove-maker-expects-40-profit-surge-in-2020-2nd-half/

Stock

2020-05-02 20:46 | Report Abuse

investors here will have have young 6 month old rubber tree planted there...LOL!

Stock

2020-05-02 20:38 | Report Abuse

They sell you "hope" for a mere 20% increase in profit by end (December) of 2020 ...

while you wait for that dream to take place by buying at share price at 80% higher than normal price .....

covid 19 vaccine will be found by Sept and bang! GAME OVER!

share price will be back to normal

80% premium price for a 20% rise in earnings at the end of 2020 is not worth now...

Stock

2020-05-02 20:37 | Report Abuse

They sell you "hope" for a mere 20% increase in profit by end (December) of 2020 ...

while you wait for that dream to take place by buying at share price at 80% higher than normal price .....

covid 19 vaccine will be found by Sept and bang! GAME OVER!

share price will be back to normal

80% premium price for a 20% rise in earnings at the end of 2020 is not worth now...

Stock

2020-05-02 20:37 | Report Abuse

They sell you "hope" for a mere 20% increase in profit by end (December) of 2020 ...

while you wait for that dream to take place by buying at share price at 80% higher than normal price .....

covid 19 vaccine will be found by Sept and bang! GAME OVER!

share price will be back to normal

80% premium price for a 20% rise in earnings at the end of 2020 is not worth now...

Stock

2020-05-02 20:37 | Report Abuse

They sell you "hope" for a mere 20% increase in profit by end (December) of 2020 ...

while you wait for that dream to take place by buying at share price at 80% higher than normal price .....

covid 19 vaccine will be found by Sept and bang! GAME OVER!

share price will be back to normal

80% premium price for a 20% rise in earnings at the end of 2020 is not worth now...

Stock

2020-05-02 20:31 | Report Abuse

Company Name

Location

Estimated Annual Revenue


Adventa

Selangor, Malaysia

$13.9 million


Comfort Rubber Gloves Industries

Perak, Malaysia

$109.8 million



Hartalega Holdings

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

$655 million



Kossan Rubber

Selangor, Malaysia

$492 million


Riverstone

Selangor, Malaysia

$211.8 million


Rubberex

Perak, Malaysia

$47.6 million


Essex, United Kingdom

$1.81 billion

Tan Sin Lian

Johor, Malaysia



Top Glove

Shah Alam, Malaysia

$1.1 billion



YTY Group

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

$10.8 billion

...................................

YTY Nitrile gloves supply is 10 x bigger than Top glove, 20 x bigger than Harta and 100 x bigger than Comfort....they will easily fill up the demand

the small players cannot increase Margin as YTY will takeover all the market share by depressing the price if they do

Even with additional capacity coming in by end of 2020, these players can only increase throughput by max 20%
.........................................

by then, the whole covid 19 drama is game over

Stock

2020-05-02 20:31 | Report Abuse

Company Name

Location

Estimated Annual Revenue


Adventa

Selangor, Malaysia

$13.9 million


Comfort Rubber Gloves Industries

Perak, Malaysia

$109.8 million



Hartalega Holdings

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

$655 million



Kossan Rubber

Selangor, Malaysia

$492 million


Riverstone

Selangor, Malaysia

$211.8 million


Rubberex

Perak, Malaysia

$47.6 million


Essex, United Kingdom

$1.81 billion

Tan Sin Lian

Johor, Malaysia



Top Glove

Shah Alam, Malaysia

$1.1 billion



YTY Group

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

$10.8 billion

...................................

YTY Nitrile gloves supply is 10 x bigger than Top glove, 20 x bigger than Harta and 100 x bigger than Comfort....they will easily fill up the demand

the small players cannot increase Margin as YTY will takeover all the market share by depressing the price if they do

Even with additional capacity coming in by end of 2020, these players can only increase throughput by max 20%
.........................................

by then, the whole covid 19 drama is game over

Stock

2020-05-02 20:31 | Report Abuse

Company Name

Location

Estimated Annual Revenue


Adventa

Selangor, Malaysia

$13.9 million


Comfort Rubber Gloves Industries

Perak, Malaysia

$109.8 million



Hartalega Holdings

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

$655 million



Kossan Rubber

Selangor, Malaysia

$492 million


Riverstone

Selangor, Malaysia

$211.8 million


Rubberex

Perak, Malaysia

$47.6 million


Essex, United Kingdom

$1.81 billion

Tan Sin Lian

Johor, Malaysia



Top Glove

Shah Alam, Malaysia

$1.1 billion



YTY Group

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

$10.8 billion

...................................

YTY Nitrile gloves supply is 10 x bigger than Top glove, 20 x bigger than Harta and 100 x bigger than Comfort....they will easily fill up the demand

the small players cannot increase Margin as YTY will takeover all the market share by depressing the price if they do

Even with additional capacity coming in by end of 2020, these players can only increase throughput by max 20%
.........................................

by then, the whole covid 19 drama is game over

Stock

2020-05-02 18:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Stock

2020-05-02 17:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Stock

2020-05-02 17:19 |

Post removed.Why?

News & Blogs
News & Blogs

2020-05-02 16:52 | Report Abuse

Bursa sifu, please let go of Hengyuan, migrate to Serbadk if you need to invest on O&G...

HY will suffer huge stock loss on coming qtr results...refinery margin is like shit..

Stock

2020-05-02 16:23 | Report Abuse

goldgent...sometime i speculate also...dont quote me

best you consult sixth sense Charlest sifu

Stock

2020-05-02 15:22 | Report Abuse

i would be really happy if Comfort shoot to 2.0....

cause then i know the odds of other undervalued shares to rise way much higher

absolutely zero jealousy here...

i only want to use the irrational exuberence pressure here to push up others

the price plunge back to where it was for COMFORT is comfortably inevitable for me..he he he

Stock

2020-05-02 15:19 | Report Abuse

gloves is only needed in the hospitals...the daily new cases is less than 100,000 per day

Malaysia production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day

what is 100k demand rise vs 616M supply?

= 0.01% rise??

even for every new infection you need 100 new medical staffs to buy gloves, that is just 1% rise in demand


1% rise in demand caused the share price shoot up 50%???

LOL!

Stock

2020-05-02 15:18 | Report Abuse

gloves is only needed in the hospitals...the daily new cases is less than 100,000 per day

Malaysia production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day

what is 100k demand rise vs 616M supply?

= 0.01% rise??

even for every new infection you need 100 new medical staffs to buy gloves, that is just 1% rise in demand


1% rise in demand caused the share price shoot up 50%???

LOL!

Stock

2020-05-02 15:18 | Report Abuse

gloves is only needed in the hospitals...the daily new cases is less than 100,000 per day

Malaysia production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day

what is 100k demand rise vs 616M supply?

= 0.01% rise??

even for every new infection you need 100 new medical staffs to buy gloves, that is just 1% rise in demand


1% rise in demand caused the share price shoot up 50%???

LOL!

Stock

2020-05-02 15:17 | Report Abuse

Time BOMB here....escape with the treasures before it explodes.

Stock

2020-05-02 15:15 | Report Abuse

gloves is only needed in the hospitals...the daily new cases is less than 100,000 per day

Malaysia production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day

what is 100k demand rise vs 616M supply?

= 0.01% rise??

even for every new infection you need 100 new medical staffs to buy gloves, that is just 1% rise in demand


1% rise in demand caused the share price shoot up 50%???

LOL!

Stock

2020-05-02 15:04 | Report Abuse

heard uncle Koon migrating back to Dayang....

remember he said he will revisit when the tide changes

always balance Risk vs Reward on your investment decision

News & Blogs
News & Blogs
News & Blogs

2020-05-02 14:41 | Report Abuse

DUFU has a lot to catch up with NOTION

Stock

2020-05-02 14:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Stock

2020-05-02 14:05 | Report Abuse

@Alex, did you gain from DUFU?

It has all the reasons to rise at higher % than Notion

Notion forecasted HDD demand to grow significantly even under Covid scenario.

Stock

2020-05-02 14:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Stock

2020-05-02 13:43 | Report Abuse

OPEC+ should focus on market share as oil demand recovers:

April 30, 2020

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/opec-should-focus-on-market-share-as-oil-demand-recovers-moscow/75462274

Russia and OPEC member Saudi Arabia spearheaded the latest efforts by OPEC+ to cut production by the equivalent of 10 per cent of global supplies from May 1 in a bid lift prices as demand for crude plunged by as much 30 per cent due to global lockdowns.

But oil prices in the latest crisis have plunged well below breakeven for many US shale producers, driving down output.

Oil demand had been expected to rise in 2020 until the coronavirus sent the market into reverse. But demand could start picking up as the United States, China, European nations and others start easing lockdown measures.

OPEC+ producers have typically produced about half of global needs, with the rest coming from others, including the United States. OPEC+ has said it wants its move to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) matched by non-OPEC+, so a total of almost 20 million bpd is removed from the market.

Russia believes global demand has already hit a floor, after dropping by 20 million to 30 million bpd.

"Looks like oil companies took production cuts seriously - we are getting nearly 19 per cent less (of usual supplies in May)," one of the traders working at Russia's domestic market said.

Stock

2020-05-02 12:29 | Report Abuse

it will be back to 2.30 independent of oil price as long as the MCO restriction in Malaysia and elsewhere (middle east & africa) is uplifted...

Malaysia is uplifted (23% of Serba revenue)..i believe everywhere in the world (Qatar, UAE, Saudi) is happening the same way...


Posted by Alex™ > May 2, 2020 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

probability bro, this one can hantam ka? tp how much

Stock
Stock

2020-05-02 12:01 | Report Abuse

Goldman lists 5 reasons traders should load up on energy stocks following oil's historic plunge

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/oil-price-buy-energy-stocks-why-goldman-lists-reasons-plunge-2020-4-1029139451

Here are the five reasons Goldman Sachs is bullish on energy stocks.

1. "Oil prices are at/below cash costs."

West Texas Intermediate oil is below the $20- to $25-per-barrel prices often seen as "typical cash cost floors." Goldman thinks the current low prices and even the negative oil prices seen last week are warranted because of the level of oversupply in oil markets. At the same time, these ultra-low prices should force a reduction in production, thus reducing supply and helping put a floor in oil prices.
Read more: Goldman Sachs recommends investors buy 'quality at a reasonable price.' Here are the firm's top 10 stock picks that fit the bill.

2. "Shut-in announcements are becoming material."

"The combination of OPEC+ supply cut and US/Canada shut-ins should reduce the need for prolonged low shale activity needed to rebalance oil prices," Goldman said.


3. "Demand appears to be at a trough."

Goldman expects global demand in oil to improve off trough levels before the end of the quarter and "gradually recover over the next two years." Goldman's commodities-research team sees a transition from building oil inventories to drawing on oil inventories by June.
4. "Valuation near 25-year lows on EV/gross cash invested basis."
"E&P stocks are trading near $0.50 cents on the dollar per dollar invested adjusted for longer-term degradation in corporate returns — this is slightly above troughs seen since 1995," Goldman said.
Read more: Meet the 20-year-old day-trading phenom who's turned $20,000 into more than $1 million. He details his precise strategy — and shares how he made $11,400 in 2 minutes.

5. "Stocks on average have stopped falling on recent bad micro news."

Between dividend cuts, production shut-ins, and lower front-month oil prices, oil stocks no longer appear to be harmed by the poor headlines coming out of the oil industry. Goldman said that "as producer announcements shift from capex/dividend cuts to shut-ins, we expect equity response to inflect more positively."

Stock

2020-05-02 11:57 | Report Abuse

Goldman lists 5 reasons traders should load up on energy stocks following oil's historic plunge

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/oil-price-buy-energy-stocks-why-goldman-lists-reasons-plunge-2020-4-1029139451

Here are the five reasons Goldman Sachs is bullish on energy stocks.

1. "Oil prices are at/below cash costs."

West Texas Intermediate oil is below the $20- to $25-per-barrel prices often seen as "typical cash cost floors." Goldman thinks the current low prices and even the negative oil prices seen last week are warranted because of the level of oversupply in oil markets. At the same time, these ultra-low prices should force a reduction in production, thus reducing supply and helping put a floor in oil prices.
Read more: Goldman Sachs recommends investors buy 'quality at a reasonable price.' Here are the firm's top 10 stock picks that fit the bill.

2. "Shut-in announcements are becoming material."

"The combination of OPEC+ supply cut and US/Canada shut-ins should reduce the need for prolonged low shale activity needed to rebalance oil prices," Goldman said.


3. "Demand appears to be at a trough."

Goldman expects global demand in oil to improve off trough levels before the end of the quarter and "gradually recover over the next two years." Goldman's commodities-research team sees a transition from building oil inventories to drawing on oil inventories by June.
4. "Valuation near 25-year lows on EV/gross cash invested basis."
"E&P stocks are trading near $0.50 cents on the dollar per dollar invested adjusted for longer-term degradation in corporate returns — this is slightly above troughs seen since 1995," Goldman said.
Read more: Meet the 20-year-old day-trading phenom who's turned $20,000 into more than $1 million. He details his precise strategy — and shares how he made $11,400 in 2 minutes.

5. "Stocks on average have stopped falling on recent bad micro news."

Between dividend cuts, production shut-ins, and lower front-month oil prices, oil stocks no longer appear to be harmed by the poor headlines coming out of the oil industry. Goldman said that "as producer announcements shift from capex/dividend cuts to shut-ins, we expect equity response to inflect more positively."

Stock
Stock

2020-05-02 11:47 | Report Abuse

In my opinion, more than the oil price, government's declaration today that almost all business can resume operation will have significant boost to Dayang share price performance.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/malaysia-to-reopen-almost-all-economic-sectors-may-4/1825334


(1) Petronas repeated said that they are maintaining local Capex of 28 Billion for 2020.

The company forecast 2020 domestic capital expenditure of 26 billion ringgit ($6 billion) to 28 billion ringgit, higher than last year.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/04/14/petronas-warns-of-project-delays-aims-to-keep-local-capex


(2) Petroliam Nasional Bhd may maintain its net cash position over the next four years albeit with narrowing net cash balances, Fitch Ratings said.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/04/584489/petronas-cash-position-remain-net-next-four-years-fitch


(3) Petronas also secured a US$ 6 Billion bond to cushion temporary strain on cash if it all happens

https://www.petronas.com/media/press-release/petronas-successfully-prices-us6-billion-bond-offering


(4) Petronas clearly refuted that none of its rigs were shutdown.

https://www.petronas.com/media/press-release/petronas-refutes-claims-new-straits-times-it-deactivated-14-oil-rigs-has-shut


Refer extract below:
....................

"Petronas also wishes to clarify that there was temporary suspension of projects at some worksites due to the movement control order (MCO) implemented by the government.

"Currently, most of these projects have either resumed their work activities or will be resuming soon upon securing the necessary approval from the government," it said.

Petronas added that it is striving to minimise the pandemic’s impact to its planned domestic capital expenditure programme.

"However, we do expect that some projects will naturally be delayed due to the prolonged lockdowns implemented globally and the MCO in Malaysia, and further anticipated disruptions to the global supply chain," it added.

News & Blogs

2020-05-01 17:15 | Report Abuse

Ok, very good article then - thumbs up!

Now, from myside, i am left with the fuel costs of JAKS which will definitely (for certain) be higher than Vinh Tan 1 by 20% (due to efficiency difference between subcritical and supercritical coal fired boilers).

I am not sure how that will effect JAKS profitability compared to Vinh Tan 1 at the moment..