Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.
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2020-05-02 20:52 | Report Abuse
7.26 from 4.6 - share price already rise more than 65%!
2020-05-02 20:51 | Report Abuse
i correct it for toplove from 20% to 40%...and that is at the end of 2020.
I dont think they can increase capacity more than 20%.\ with current production capacity of ~ 73 Billion pcs per year.
All info can be found here:
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/world-s-largest-glove-maker-expects-40-profit-surge-in-2020-2nd-half/
2020-05-02 20:46 | Report Abuse
investors here will have have young 6 month old rubber tree planted there...LOL!
2020-05-02 20:43 | Report Abuse
Rubberex Directors sold more than 12 Million shares
still dreaming kah?
https://klse.i3investor.com/insider/substantialShareholder/7803/28-Apr-2020/487020_3191594059.jsp
2020-05-02 20:38 | Report Abuse
They sell you "hope" for a mere 20% increase in profit by end (December) of 2020 ...
while you wait for that dream to take place by buying at share price at 80% higher than normal price .....
covid 19 vaccine will be found by Sept and bang! GAME OVER!
share price will be back to normal
80% premium price for a 20% rise in earnings at the end of 2020 is not worth now...
2020-05-02 20:37 | Report Abuse
They sell you "hope" for a mere 20% increase in profit by end (December) of 2020 ...
while you wait for that dream to take place by buying at share price at 80% higher than normal price .....
covid 19 vaccine will be found by Sept and bang! GAME OVER!
share price will be back to normal
80% premium price for a 20% rise in earnings at the end of 2020 is not worth now...
2020-05-02 20:37 | Report Abuse
They sell you "hope" for a mere 20% increase in profit by end (December) of 2020 ...
while you wait for that dream to take place by buying at share price at 80% higher than normal price .....
covid 19 vaccine will be found by Sept and bang! GAME OVER!
share price will be back to normal
80% premium price for a 20% rise in earnings at the end of 2020 is not worth now...
2020-05-02 20:37 | Report Abuse
They sell you "hope" for a mere 20% increase in profit by end (December) of 2020 ...
while you wait for that dream to take place by buying at share price at 80% higher than normal price .....
covid 19 vaccine will be found by Sept and bang! GAME OVER!
share price will be back to normal
80% premium price for a 20% rise in earnings at the end of 2020 is not worth now...
2020-05-02 20:31 | Report Abuse
Company Name
Location
Estimated Annual Revenue
Adventa
Selangor, Malaysia
$13.9 million
Comfort Rubber Gloves Industries
Perak, Malaysia
$109.8 million
Hartalega Holdings
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
$655 million
Kossan Rubber
Selangor, Malaysia
$492 million
Riverstone
Selangor, Malaysia
$211.8 million
Rubberex
Perak, Malaysia
$47.6 million
Essex, United Kingdom
$1.81 billion
Tan Sin Lian
Johor, Malaysia
Top Glove
Shah Alam, Malaysia
$1.1 billion
YTY Group
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
$10.8 billion
...................................
YTY Nitrile gloves supply is 10 x bigger than Top glove, 20 x bigger than Harta and 100 x bigger than Comfort....they will easily fill up the demand
the small players cannot increase Margin as YTY will takeover all the market share by depressing the price if they do
Even with additional capacity coming in by end of 2020, these players can only increase throughput by max 20%
.........................................
by then, the whole covid 19 drama is game over
2020-05-02 20:31 | Report Abuse
Company Name
Location
Estimated Annual Revenue
Adventa
Selangor, Malaysia
$13.9 million
Comfort Rubber Gloves Industries
Perak, Malaysia
$109.8 million
Hartalega Holdings
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
$655 million
Kossan Rubber
Selangor, Malaysia
$492 million
Riverstone
Selangor, Malaysia
$211.8 million
Rubberex
Perak, Malaysia
$47.6 million
Essex, United Kingdom
$1.81 billion
Tan Sin Lian
Johor, Malaysia
Top Glove
Shah Alam, Malaysia
$1.1 billion
YTY Group
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
$10.8 billion
...................................
YTY Nitrile gloves supply is 10 x bigger than Top glove, 20 x bigger than Harta and 100 x bigger than Comfort....they will easily fill up the demand
the small players cannot increase Margin as YTY will takeover all the market share by depressing the price if they do
Even with additional capacity coming in by end of 2020, these players can only increase throughput by max 20%
.........................................
by then, the whole covid 19 drama is game over
2020-05-02 20:31 | Report Abuse
Company Name
Location
Estimated Annual Revenue
Adventa
Selangor, Malaysia
$13.9 million
Comfort Rubber Gloves Industries
Perak, Malaysia
$109.8 million
Hartalega Holdings
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
$655 million
Kossan Rubber
Selangor, Malaysia
$492 million
Riverstone
Selangor, Malaysia
$211.8 million
Rubberex
Perak, Malaysia
$47.6 million
Essex, United Kingdom
$1.81 billion
Tan Sin Lian
Johor, Malaysia
Top Glove
Shah Alam, Malaysia
$1.1 billion
YTY Group
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
$10.8 billion
...................................
YTY Nitrile gloves supply is 10 x bigger than Top glove, 20 x bigger than Harta and 100 x bigger than Comfort....they will easily fill up the demand
the small players cannot increase Margin as YTY will takeover all the market share by depressing the price if they do
Even with additional capacity coming in by end of 2020, these players can only increase throughput by max 20%
.........................................
by then, the whole covid 19 drama is game over
2020-05-02 17:31 | Report Abuse
HDD Remains Dominant Storage Technology (NOTION & DUFU)
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-02-story-h1506854499-HDD_Remains_Dominant_Storage_Technology_NOTION_DUFU.jsp
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/27/is-seagate-technology-resistant-to-the-coronavirus.aspx
2020-05-02 17:30 | Report Abuse
HDD Remains Dominant Storage Technology (NOTION & DUFU)
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-02-story-h1506854499-HDD_Remains_Dominant_Storage_Technology_NOTION_DUFU.jsp
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/27/is-seagate-technology-resistant-to-the-coronavirus.aspx
2020-05-02 17:30 | Report Abuse
HDD Remains Dominant Storage Technology (NOTION & DUFU)
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-02-story-h1506854499-HDD_Remains_Dominant_Storage_Technology_NOTION_DUFU.jsp
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/27/is-seagate-technology-resistant-to-the-coronavirus.aspx
2020-05-02 16:52 | Report Abuse
Bursa sifu, please let go of Hengyuan, migrate to Serbadk if you need to invest on O&G...
HY will suffer huge stock loss on coming qtr results...refinery margin is like shit..
2020-05-02 16:23 | Report Abuse
goldgent...sometime i speculate also...dont quote me
best you consult sixth sense Charlest sifu
2020-05-02 16:12 | Report Abuse
HDD Remains Dominant Storage Technology (NOTION & DUFU)
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-02-story-h1506854499-HDD_Remains_Dominant_Storage_Technology_NOTION_DUFU.jsp
2020-05-02 16:11 | Report Abuse
HDD Remains Dominant Storage Technology (NOTION & DUFU)
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2020-05-02-story-h1506854499-HDD_Remains_Dominant_Storage_Technology_NOTION_DUFU.jsp
2020-05-02 15:22 | Report Abuse
i would be really happy if Comfort shoot to 2.0....
cause then i know the odds of other undervalued shares to rise way much higher
absolutely zero jealousy here...
i only want to use the irrational exuberence pressure here to push up others
the price plunge back to where it was for COMFORT is comfortably inevitable for me..he he he
2020-05-02 15:19 | Report Abuse
gloves is only needed in the hospitals...the daily new cases is less than 100,000 per day
Malaysia production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day
what is 100k demand rise vs 616M supply?
= 0.01% rise??
even for every new infection you need 100 new medical staffs to buy gloves, that is just 1% rise in demand
1% rise in demand caused the share price shoot up 50%???
LOL!
2020-05-02 15:18 | Report Abuse
gloves is only needed in the hospitals...the daily new cases is less than 100,000 per day
Malaysia production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day
what is 100k demand rise vs 616M supply?
= 0.01% rise??
even for every new infection you need 100 new medical staffs to buy gloves, that is just 1% rise in demand
1% rise in demand caused the share price shoot up 50%???
LOL!
2020-05-02 15:18 | Report Abuse
gloves is only needed in the hospitals...the daily new cases is less than 100,000 per day
Malaysia production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day
what is 100k demand rise vs 616M supply?
= 0.01% rise??
even for every new infection you need 100 new medical staffs to buy gloves, that is just 1% rise in demand
1% rise in demand caused the share price shoot up 50%???
LOL!
2020-05-02 15:17 | Report Abuse
Time BOMB here....escape with the treasures before it explodes.
2020-05-02 15:15 | Report Abuse
gloves is only needed in the hospitals...the daily new cases is less than 100,000 per day
Malaysia production capacity is 225,000,000,000 per year.i.e
= 616,000,000 per day
what is 100k demand rise vs 616M supply?
= 0.01% rise??
even for every new infection you need 100 new medical staffs to buy gloves, that is just 1% rise in demand
1% rise in demand caused the share price shoot up 50%???
LOL!
2020-05-02 15:04 | Report Abuse
heard uncle Koon migrating back to Dayang....
remember he said he will revisit when the tide changes
always balance Risk vs Reward on your investment decision
2020-05-02 14:41 | Report Abuse
DUFU has a lot to catch up with NOTION
2020-05-02 14:05 | Report Abuse
@Alex, did you gain from DUFU?
It has all the reasons to rise at higher % than Notion
Notion forecasted HDD demand to grow significantly even under Covid scenario.
2020-05-02 13:43 | Report Abuse
OPEC+ should focus on market share as oil demand recovers:
April 30, 2020
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/opec-should-focus-on-market-share-as-oil-demand-recovers-moscow/75462274
Russia and OPEC member Saudi Arabia spearheaded the latest efforts by OPEC+ to cut production by the equivalent of 10 per cent of global supplies from May 1 in a bid lift prices as demand for crude plunged by as much 30 per cent due to global lockdowns.
But oil prices in the latest crisis have plunged well below breakeven for many US shale producers, driving down output.
Oil demand had been expected to rise in 2020 until the coronavirus sent the market into reverse. But demand could start picking up as the United States, China, European nations and others start easing lockdown measures.
OPEC+ producers have typically produced about half of global needs, with the rest coming from others, including the United States. OPEC+ has said it wants its move to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) matched by non-OPEC+, so a total of almost 20 million bpd is removed from the market.
Russia believes global demand has already hit a floor, after dropping by 20 million to 30 million bpd.
"Looks like oil companies took production cuts seriously - we are getting nearly 19 per cent less (of usual supplies in May)," one of the traders working at Russia's domestic market said.
2020-05-02 12:29 | Report Abuse
it will be back to 2.30 independent of oil price as long as the MCO restriction in Malaysia and elsewhere (middle east & africa) is uplifted...
Malaysia is uplifted (23% of Serba revenue)..i believe everywhere in the world (Qatar, UAE, Saudi) is happening the same way...
Posted by Alex™ > May 2, 2020 12:16 PM | Report Abuse
probability bro, this one can hantam ka? tp how much
2020-05-02 12:01 | Report Abuse
Goldman lists 5 reasons traders should load up on energy stocks following oil's historic plunge
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/oil-price-buy-energy-stocks-why-goldman-lists-reasons-plunge-2020-4-1029139451
Here are the five reasons Goldman Sachs is bullish on energy stocks.
1. "Oil prices are at/below cash costs."
West Texas Intermediate oil is below the $20- to $25-per-barrel prices often seen as "typical cash cost floors." Goldman thinks the current low prices and even the negative oil prices seen last week are warranted because of the level of oversupply in oil markets. At the same time, these ultra-low prices should force a reduction in production, thus reducing supply and helping put a floor in oil prices.
Read more: Goldman Sachs recommends investors buy 'quality at a reasonable price.' Here are the firm's top 10 stock picks that fit the bill.
2. "Shut-in announcements are becoming material."
"The combination of OPEC+ supply cut and US/Canada shut-ins should reduce the need for prolonged low shale activity needed to rebalance oil prices," Goldman said.
3. "Demand appears to be at a trough."
Goldman expects global demand in oil to improve off trough levels before the end of the quarter and "gradually recover over the next two years." Goldman's commodities-research team sees a transition from building oil inventories to drawing on oil inventories by June.
4. "Valuation near 25-year lows on EV/gross cash invested basis."
"E&P stocks are trading near $0.50 cents on the dollar per dollar invested adjusted for longer-term degradation in corporate returns — this is slightly above troughs seen since 1995," Goldman said.
Read more: Meet the 20-year-old day-trading phenom who's turned $20,000 into more than $1 million. He details his precise strategy — and shares how he made $11,400 in 2 minutes.
5. "Stocks on average have stopped falling on recent bad micro news."
Between dividend cuts, production shut-ins, and lower front-month oil prices, oil stocks no longer appear to be harmed by the poor headlines coming out of the oil industry. Goldman said that "as producer announcements shift from capex/dividend cuts to shut-ins, we expect equity response to inflect more positively."
2020-05-02 11:57 | Report Abuse
Goldman lists 5 reasons traders should load up on energy stocks following oil's historic plunge
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/oil-price-buy-energy-stocks-why-goldman-lists-reasons-plunge-2020-4-1029139451
Here are the five reasons Goldman Sachs is bullish on energy stocks.
1. "Oil prices are at/below cash costs."
West Texas Intermediate oil is below the $20- to $25-per-barrel prices often seen as "typical cash cost floors." Goldman thinks the current low prices and even the negative oil prices seen last week are warranted because of the level of oversupply in oil markets. At the same time, these ultra-low prices should force a reduction in production, thus reducing supply and helping put a floor in oil prices.
Read more: Goldman Sachs recommends investors buy 'quality at a reasonable price.' Here are the firm's top 10 stock picks that fit the bill.
2. "Shut-in announcements are becoming material."
"The combination of OPEC+ supply cut and US/Canada shut-ins should reduce the need for prolonged low shale activity needed to rebalance oil prices," Goldman said.
3. "Demand appears to be at a trough."
Goldman expects global demand in oil to improve off trough levels before the end of the quarter and "gradually recover over the next two years." Goldman's commodities-research team sees a transition from building oil inventories to drawing on oil inventories by June.
4. "Valuation near 25-year lows on EV/gross cash invested basis."
"E&P stocks are trading near $0.50 cents on the dollar per dollar invested adjusted for longer-term degradation in corporate returns — this is slightly above troughs seen since 1995," Goldman said.
Read more: Meet the 20-year-old day-trading phenom who's turned $20,000 into more than $1 million. He details his precise strategy — and shares how he made $11,400 in 2 minutes.
5. "Stocks on average have stopped falling on recent bad micro news."
Between dividend cuts, production shut-ins, and lower front-month oil prices, oil stocks no longer appear to be harmed by the poor headlines coming out of the oil industry. Goldman said that "as producer announcements shift from capex/dividend cuts to shut-ins, we expect equity response to inflect more positively."
2020-05-02 11:47 | Report Abuse
In my opinion, more than the oil price, government's declaration today that almost all business can resume operation will have significant boost to Dayang share price performance.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/malaysia-to-reopen-almost-all-economic-sectors-may-4/1825334
(1) Petronas repeated said that they are maintaining local Capex of 28 Billion for 2020.
The company forecast 2020 domestic capital expenditure of 26 billion ringgit ($6 billion) to 28 billion ringgit, higher than last year.
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/04/14/petronas-warns-of-project-delays-aims-to-keep-local-capex
(2) Petroliam Nasional Bhd may maintain its net cash position over the next four years albeit with narrowing net cash balances, Fitch Ratings said.
https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/04/584489/petronas-cash-position-remain-net-next-four-years-fitch
(3) Petronas also secured a US$ 6 Billion bond to cushion temporary strain on cash if it all happens
https://www.petronas.com/media/press-release/petronas-successfully-prices-us6-billion-bond-offering
(4) Petronas clearly refuted that none of its rigs were shutdown.
https://www.petronas.com/media/press-release/petronas-refutes-claims-new-straits-times-it-deactivated-14-oil-rigs-has-shut
Refer extract below:
....................
"Petronas also wishes to clarify that there was temporary suspension of projects at some worksites due to the movement control order (MCO) implemented by the government.
"Currently, most of these projects have either resumed their work activities or will be resuming soon upon securing the necessary approval from the government," it said.
Petronas added that it is striving to minimise the pandemic’s impact to its planned domestic capital expenditure programme.
"However, we do expect that some projects will naturally be delayed due to the prolonged lockdowns implemented globally and the MCO in Malaysia, and further anticipated disruptions to the global supply chain," it added.
2020-05-01 17:15 | Report Abuse
Ok, very good article then - thumbs up!
Now, from myside, i am left with the fuel costs of JAKS which will definitely (for certain) be higher than Vinh Tan 1 by 20% (due to efficiency difference between subcritical and supercritical coal fired boilers).
I am not sure how that will effect JAKS profitability compared to Vinh Tan 1 at the moment..
2020-05-01 17:06 | Report Abuse
DK66, there is still an element of uncertainty if the Profit attributable to Minority interest was solely contributed by Vinh Tan 1 right?
Was the cash flow also derived similarly?
I am unable to translate the chinese
2020-05-01 15:47 | Report Abuse
They are using the borrowing cost for establishing EIRR of 10% with PIRR of 7.1% compared against WACC of 6.4%.
PIRR is for comparing against WACC. If you include interest cost in PIRR than its meaningless to compare against WACC right?
Posted by DK66 > May 1, 2020 3:36 PM | Report Abuse
Page 21 (summary 9)
https://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/H29FY/000594.pdf
You notice that the Presumptions used in calculation the IRR include allowance for borrowing costs.
2020-05-01 15:34 | Report Abuse
the return will be like what the management said to Public Bank IB of ~120M (profit) for 30% stake then
since the capital and interest payment is secured by EVN, its like a having a Bond level return perhaps...
just speculating
Posted by DK66 > May 1, 2020 3:28 PM | Report Abuse
Meanwhile, icon8888 may like to take out the borrowing costs and determine the return. I m sure the return will look miserable and not feasible for investment.
2020-05-01 15:21 | Report Abuse
No issues DK66, look forward on that for my knowledge.
Below some reference related to LNG Thermal power plant using Project IRR less than 12% :
https://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/H29FY/000594.pdf
Posted by DK66 > May 1, 2020 3:14 PM | Report Abuse
Probabilty, I shall prove my point later. I m in the middle of my next article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP"
2020-05-01 15:13 | Report Abuse
http://ecapslock.com/project-irr-vs-equity-irr/
Project IRR vs Equity IRR
..........................
By CA Amit Bansal | 19/11/201844 Comments
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Net Present Value (NPV) are the two methods which are widely accepted method throughout the industries for evaluation of any Long Term Projects.
Calculation of IRR is little tricky. In this post we will understand what is IRR, difference between project IRR and Equity IRR and whether Project IRR can be lesser than Equity IRR or not?
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
.............................
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is a rate on which NPV of the project equals to zero i.e. value arriving by discounting all the cash flows of the project with IRR rate will be zero.
Project IRR (PIRR) and Equity IRR (EIRR)
........................................
The project is generally financed in some proportion of Debt and Equity.
The project IRR gives the rate of return from the whole project. It is calculated presuming that there is no debt portion in the project financing. It calculates the rate of return considering the cash flows from the project only (i.e. except financing cost). Project IRR will remain same irrespective of capital mix of the project.
2020-05-01 15:03 | Report Abuse
@DK66, its the Dividend distribution you are saying here right?
They can take that out from their huge depreciation / capital payment i suppose..
what certainty is there that it will be a continuous stream of dividend every quarter?
Mong Duong 2 did not even declare dividend last quarter.
If thats the case for JAKS - will that result as a zero income on a particular quarter where they did not receive cash distribution from Hai Duong power plant?
Posted by DK66 > May 1, 2020 2:57 PM | Report Abuse
Mong duong II and vinh Tan 1 reported profit immediately upon COD
Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORPORATION BHD
2020-05-02 20:57 |
Post removed.Why?