I heard uncle is reading Comfort forum actively, so i am just passively reminding him....

this kind of thing we cannot force people...

we need to use gentle persuasion

Just a timely reminder:


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2020-04-10-story-h1505923411-Covid_19_Depressed_Stock_Market_Koon_Yew_Yin.jsp

KYY wrote:

I have sold all my shares even at a loss. I will only start buying Dayang again when its price chart is showing a definite up trend and the oil price recovers to a more reasonable level so that Petronas will increase its operation.

i no hate anyone ma.....we need see the positive and negative to balance ma...

i am just a 'balancing force' by nature....

https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2020/05/16/bursa-malaysia-to-see-positive-trend-as-oil-prices-set-to-rise/1866661

Hopefully will push up gloves counters too!

ok i sapot gloves-Monday all up 15%

very worrying for Gloves:

https://www.thestartv.com/v/coronavirus-related-production-frenzy

better quietly move to O&G....

DK, my original estimation on 1RR for Vinh Tan 1 based on reported earnings is about 15%.

so if you exclude 12% from that , its about 3% for energy payment.

Even if you discount 20% due to efficiency on 3%, its just abut 0.5% reduction in IRR.

............

To me the Dividend from Mong Duong 2 which comes fairly close to the earnings of Vinh Tan 1, gives quite a bit of confidence that JHDP will perform similarly.

so the earnings estimation is no longer a concern for me at all
...............................................................

only remaining concern is if Jaks could raise their stake to 40% without seeking existing investor to take out from their pocket

Post removed.Why?

DK, if you see the 4th year FCF (year 2025), he derived it from EBITDA of 1681 to be 1044. He had deducted the Interest cost of 206 to derive the FCF.

He then used this FCF of 1044 on the 4th year of his NPV derivation under section 5.

If he had used FCFF like you did above the FCF on 4th year will be 1044+206 = 1250

If he used 1250, the IRR will be much higher than 12%

This is not the same like you did above.

let me check again...

Icon8888 sifu, where have you gone missing from i3?

e.g on 1st year, you had used the below figures:

1 652 301 353 1,306

FCFF = 1306

= Profit (652) + Depreciation(301) + Interest Cost (353)

so it means you had used FCFF for Project IRR exactly like had mentioned.

I thought you were saying to use FCF-E (meaning excluding interest cost) of 1271 to derive the reported project IRR of 12%.

.........

You can see that Icon8888 did not use the above FCFF method when he derived the profit working back from IRR of 12%. He used FCF-E and thus inflating the profit for a given IRR.

That was the reason the debate between us earlier, where you had supported Icon method was correct.

Just trying to clarify

@DK66, sorry i have not been following your discussion recently in i3 completely..

The above earnings derivation with project IRR seems in line with what i had estimated excluding interest like i had expressed earlier. So, have you changed your opinion on the Interest cost inclusion for Project IRR?

@Goldgent, now Dayang would start factoring in the resumption of local O&G activities...

even if oil price dips temporarily, Petronas will no longer halt any of its service activities

and market would realize that any dip in oil price will be momentary and will definitely rebound

(Saudi wants the price higher & many shale producers already close shop)

even penergy earnings on next qtr will be higher than Comfort gloves earnings after 12 months....LOL!


Posted by JoinTheBoat > May 16, 2020 5:14 PM | Report Abuse

Petra show qtr 1300% losses
Its show how devastated O&G is in
Many work had stop
No revenue
No cash
No income

even penergy earnings on next qtr will be higher than Comfort gloves earnings after 12 months....LOL!


Posted by JoinTheBoat > May 16, 2020 5:14 PM | Report Abuse

Petra show qtr 1300% losses
Its show how devastated O&G is in
Many work had stop
No revenue
No cash
No income

you see penergy results on 30Jun 18' and 30Sep 18", huge loss....and check the same period for Dayang

even if Dayang reports loss, the next qtr it will be back to its normal earnings

market 6 MONTHS FWD LOOKING...
.............................

not asking 12 or 24 MONTHS like for GLOVES!

Posted by JoinTheBoat > May 16, 2020 5:04 PM | Report Abuse

PROBALITYTY.....
Petra with PETRONAS HUGE SUPPORT
ALSO MANAGE TO SHOW 1300% LOSSES

Dayang’s existing order book, which stands at RM4.8 billion, has surpassed its previous high of RM4 billion in 2014.

Ok fine, i only wanted to post one article on Dayang, but people wanted to discuss on it i thought...if dont want to discuss its ok.

Good luck...and sleep COMFORTably...

uncle Boon Keng, why so sensitive till name calling?

cannot sleep well at night?

If for COMFORT, market is 1 or 2 years ahead looking...

what is 3 months for DAYANG? Sapnergy did not even blink after earnings announcement with a huge loss.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petronas-maintain-capex-despite-oil-price-slump

TP 3.15 barely 3 months ago...

Petronas to maintain capex despite oil price slump

March 11, 2020

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petronas-maintain-capex-despite-oil-price-slump

Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) says it plans to continue with its domestic capital expenditure (capex) programme of RM26 billion to RM28 billion this year, despite the recent oil price slump.

“Since the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, Petronas has taken immediate measures to ensure the safety of our employees through the implementation of several proactive steps to manage the risk of exposure and reduce the risk of transmission,” it said.

..............

Market is 6 months forward looking, it will ignore recent MCO effects on Dayang earnings.

If you miss Dayang next week with the hope to get it low later, likely you will miss Dayang permanently

Good luck

Dayang’s CPOC contract seen providing greater earnings visibility

February 06, 2020

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/dayangs-cpoc-contract-seen-providing-greater-earnings-visibility

Upgrade to trading buy with a target price of RM3.15: Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd is starting to make its presence felt internationally, clinching an umbrella contract in Thailand for the provision of modification works for Block B-17 & C-19 and Block B-17-01.

The contract, awarded by Carigali-PTTEPI Operating Company Sdn Bhd (CPOC), is for a three-year period with a two-year extension option. We were positively surprised by this development as we had not expected Dayang to secure any significant contracts aside from potential additional “farm-in” works from existing contracts. It provides Dayang even greater earnings visibility for up to the next four years.

................

TP 3.15, barely 3 months ago, MCO is over and oil price back above 30

Petronas to maintain capex despite oil price slump

March 11, 2020

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petronas-maintain-capex-despite-oil-price-slump

Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) says it plans to continue with its domestic capital expenditure (capex) programme of RM26 billion to RM28 billion this year, despite the recent oil price slump.

“Since the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, Petronas has taken immediate measures to ensure the safety of our employees through the implementation of several proactive steps to manage the risk of exposure and reduce the risk of transmission,” it said.

..............

Market is 6 months forward looking, it will ignore recent MCO effects on Dayang earnings.

If you miss Dayang next week with the hope to get it low later, likely you will miss Dayang permanently

Good luck

The demand for gloves will rise by 50%

Nanyang Sat, May 16, 2020

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/677697

The demand for gloves will rise by 50%

Nanyang Sat, May 16, 2020

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/677697

anytime Dayang earnings will beat Comfort... even avg selling price of gloves rise by 30%

You_mee, 2.42 next week? very fast liao...

theme play is switching from gloves to O&G ma....

uncle tricking you all...slowly disposing to enter back Dayang

this one is like a tremoring volcano....ready to blast anytime

if uncle dont comeback to Dayang next week...this one fly away just like Comfort from 0.90 to 2.30 now.....

if gloves avg selling price can rise by 15% to 20%, cant the chemical used in small quantities rise by 10%?

the chemicals are like spices used in small quantity for the bulk beef rendang (gloves) they make..

even 20% rise in chemicals price wont affect glove manufacturers cost...but it matters a lot for Luxchem

just work out the bottom line implication with such margin rise and see with 30% higher sales volume

China car sales mark first rise in nearly two years, mainly due to heavy trucks

12-May-2020

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-11/China-car-sales-mark-first-rise-in-nearly-two-years-QptUBit5W8/index.html

polyester resin mainly used for the surface finishing of trucks & cars should be back to normal, while raw material cost declines

Yu_mee, why dont you recommend those high ranking good enough stock

Upgrade PE by 1 and claim supply interuptions
Like that gloves stock also got supply interuption from Luxchem? And they also have less gloves demand from manufacturers due to covid shutdown?
Thought PE is fwd looking and resin/other chemical industry are recovering and benefitting from low raw mat cost from oil price decline

uncle coming back to O&G now..

Posted by kariwong9394 > May 15, 2020 12:43 PM | Report Abuse

15/05/2020 12:43 PM
what if uncle K, diam diam sell off like what had happened on Dayang,
all the smart investor sudah jadi anak kambing....

koon ah koon , koon ah koon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOCqUC9a7wM


Dayang: The worst is over - Koon Yew Yin
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2020-03-18-story-h148...

Dayang Trend Reversal - Koon Yew Yin
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2020-03-31-story-h148...

its a clear message from Saudi, they want the price to be higher than US$ 30/brl

Oil price is not Turning Back!

time to whack the warrants

30% rise in revenue (before rise in avg selling price), will have explosive impact on profit

at current oil price Dayang should be minimum above 1.50

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/luxchem-seen-grow-exports-margins

i) Transform Master Sdn Bhd (TMSB) in the latex industry: The production is operating at nearly full utilisation rate with capacity remaining at 13,800 tonnes per annum. The group’s plan to increase TMSB’s capacity to 18,000 tonnes per annum by 3QFY19 has been delayed due to warehouse and labour constraints, with expansions slated to be completed by the end of 2019.

.............

The above clearly shows that the expansion has NOT taken place on its qtr ending Dec 19.

And the expansion in 2020 will be:

= 18,000/13,800
= 30%

This will be shown on Q1 20'

Good write up from Sky is the Limit:

http://skyisthelimitskyisthelimit.blogspot.com/2017/04/next-growth-engines-of-luxchem-part-1.html

Follow by Luxchem's acquisition of Transform Master Sdn Bhd (TMSB) since April of 2016, TMSB has contributed to Luxchem's revenue and profit positively.


Who is Transform Master Sdn Bhd?
.................................

http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/

TMSB is a chemical manufacturing plant who mainly produce rubber latex chemical dispersion, latex processing chemicals, latex surfactant, dispersasant & specialty chemicals for latex industry.


Their plant is strategically located at Lumut Port, which is nearby to well known Malaysia oil and gas giant, SapuraEnergy Fabrication yard.


What is the reason behind for Luxchem to acquire Transform Master?
..................................................................

Which I believe Transform Master's main customer, YTY Group is the main driver behind. YTY is the medical glove manufacturer located in Perak and they are in aggressive expansion mode.


"Back to year of 2010, they have some of the most modern and automated lines in the industry. Our current production capacity exceeds 8.2 billion pieces of gloves a year"


YTY First GLove Factory Located at Lekir Perak

"By year 2012, our production capacity would have increased to 10.5 billion pieces a year" (Quoted from YTY Group Website)


The capacity towards 10.5 billion pieces of medical gloves was underpinned by their second factory which is located at Lumut Port, under the name of Green Prospect Sdn Bhd.


Now, YTY Group has further expand their capacity aggressively through their third plant located at Lumut Port too, just next to SapuraEnergy Fabrication yard. There is a huge parcel of land which allows YTY group DOUBLE UP their capacity easily.


I believe their third plant has started production but yet to fully operated. As you can see from photo, the plant is equipped with workers dormitories too. With the uninterrupted water supply in Perak and strategic location beside the Lumut Port, YTY Group is in the right direction to further expand their business globally.


As such, I believe Transform Master Sdn Bhd, as the sole supplier of Latex Processing Related Chemicals will continue benefited from the aggressive and stable development of YTY group, locally and regionally.

keyword - "sole supplier"

Luxury chemicals for condom, latex sex toys (all european ladies only use this during lockdown), and most importantly....

gloves to punch covid-19!



Posted by duitKWSPkita > May 14, 2020 9:35 PM | Report Abuse

wao..probability sifu is here..

What is Luxchem??? the mandi sabun Lux very wangi one?

RHB report 18 Feb 2020:

https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/attachments/81/rhb-report-my_luxchem-4qfy19_results-review_20200218_rhb-b-350989118756393355e4b34d840429.pdf

as we expect Luxchem Corp’s trading segment to benefit from higher demand from the glove-making sector – particularly in 1Q20 due to COVID-19. We also raise P/E to 14x from 13x, as we believe its significant overseas exposure is a plus, given the soft domestic economy.

..........

RHB need to revise the PE looking at gloves stock


Luxchem = 35% (revenue from glove companies) + 65 % others

as such 35% of Luxchem current market cap should trade at PE 50 at least

Required PE = 35% x PE50 + 65% x PE20

= PE 30

as such Luxchem at PE 30, should be trading at PE 30 x 4.2 cents

= 1.26
.......

https://www.ytygroup.com.my/

YTY's mission for over 30 years has been to keep frontline employees safe through the manufacture of high-quality, single-use Examination gloves. Our original corporate ethos around quality, service and value continues to drive us today, making us one of the largest and most reliable manufacturers of single-use Examination gloves in the world.

Today, YTY is one of the largest manufacturers of Nitrile Examination gloves, but also a leading supplier of Polychloroprene Examination gloves, which offer unique advantages relative to Nitrile gloves. Beyond single-use Examination gloves, YTY offers single-use Surgical solutions as well, available in both the Polychloroprene and Polyisoprene synthetic polymers.

.....................

YTY Increases Its Medical Glove Donations During the COVID-19 Crisis
Wednesday, April 1, 2020

https://www.ytygroup.com.my/yty-increases-medical-glove-donations-during-the-covid-19-crisis/

the competitors you mentioned dont supply latex chemicals

Transform Master (TMSB) - fully Owned by Luxchem, supplies chemical to gloves industry

http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/

http://transformmaster.com.my/v1/index.php/product-service/latex-compounding-chemicals

We are focusing on rubber latex industry include latex glove, latex toys, latex foam, latex thread, catheter, condoms, finger cots, balloons, latex exercise bands & etc. We also provide OEM service, design formulation for our customer based on customer requirements.

..........

The chemical consumption will be directly proportional to the gloves demand

Nice write up by "Sky is the limit":

http://skyisthelimitskyisthelimit.blogspot.com/2017/04/next-growth-engines-of-luxchem-part-1.html