@twobits: First of all, I just had a glance at UEMS so pls take with a pinch of salt. UEMS is in the property sector. Frankly I am not bullish on this sector until policy decisions on stamp duty, RPGT, PR1MA are clearer. On the earnings front, they seem to be doing pretty. I recalled reading earlier about potential penalty for delay in KLIA2 construction and some suit by Bank Kerjasama Rakyat on a Bangunan Angkasaraya deal sold by Deepak to Sunrise earlier. On the plus side, EPF seems to be accumulating shares so that's probably the boost it needs.

@JTFX: Yeah. That's the next hurdle to cross.

Wow 100+ futures contracts just wiped out (bought) at 1822.

All & all, it is a healthy discussion. Good to be cautious although I am leaning on the index touching higher before correction kicks in and resume upward trend towards year end.

Agree with iafx.

@twobits: Actually the sentiments in the US and as confirmed by some recent indications (between the lines) by some Fed state governors is that it is unlikely that they will taper this year. This is of course due to the fiscal issues the US government is facing, impact of gov shutdown on economy and unemployment in Oct. It looks likely that they will only rethink this after the US government has some concrete agreement in Jan 2013. We will see.

Regarding the chart pattern, it is just a pattern. As long as index stays above 1809, we are talking business. Today looks promising. I can't comment on foreign funds. MYR is strengthening, US equity market outperforms emerging markets and maybe they are just waiting on the sidelines for some clear signals on the Budget.

Not sure really. Just getting your views. Tenaga's RSI is already at 9x.

Well Tenaga started yesterday with punters looking at possible tariff hike but I am more interested for any hidden gems in earnings reports for e.g. 100% increase in profit y-o-y etc. Satu kali, finance minister kata tak perlu tariff hike untuk kepentingan rakyat, jatuh menjunam.

@iafx: Any insights on the earnings reports for any stellar companies?

That's true. I think profit taking is expected. Question is whether quality support can sustain the bull. Maybe this is a special note to contra players to be extra cautious.

@twobits: Thanks for sharing. Volume is actually higher than the average day and within the upper range of daily historical volume so far. We will see if this breakout is real on Friday / Monday.

No prob.

@Zenwan: I understand that the question is for OTB but just being a busy body, I'd go O&G.

@iafx: Great point. A lot of readers may not be aware that the index represents 30 counters only. Well I supposed that if we know the sentiment is going to be positive, there are a lot of things that we can do. For e.g. long the index futures, select a couple of KLCI counters to buy. I am definitely not buying the entire market. The 2nd and 3rd liner stocks will follow suit in time.

@theassiduoustrader: Thanks for adding this. You do realize what TP it will be if I indicate that in the article right? Who knows, maybe next year we have a shot at 1950.

@Mr. Ooi: Thanks Mr. Ooi. I agree with you. It is not easy for counters / index to form this pattern. IMHO, whether it is a successful breakout or not now lies squarely in the market interpretation of the Budget.

@Fortunebull: It should be a normal trading day in the states tonight. Earnings, profit taking & maybe more dumping by SAC?

@scjm3: Good notes. Keep it up.

@inwest88: point noted. I am eager to see this little spat of ours end where it is. Happy trading.

-----------------------------------------
Posted by scjm3 > Sep 14, 2013 06:02 PM | Report Abuse

to play the tit for tat game, there will be a winner and a loser. in the first place if can't take the heat then one should not persist and continue to engage in the game. now resort to character smearing and forewarning of malicious and ill intention to all and sundry. must have a good heart. i comfort myself with the thought that it takes all kind of people to make up this world. you can have your last say because this shall be the last - no more rebuttal. i rest my case and decided it is best that i leave this forum graciously.
-----------------------------------------

No one is here to play the tit for tat game. We are all here to make money. I stand by my earlier comment not to make a character judgment of you. Please do what you will.

------------------------------
Posted by scjm3 > Sep 14, 2013 02:12 PM | Report Abuse

loss for words use symbols or signs also can lah. but favourite of yours seems to be cry. yeah as the saying goes cry mother cry father. out for lunch now join you later.
------------------------------

Initially I have a good perception of you but recently this changed but anyway it is none of my business to make judgment of your character. Please continue to have fun and share. For other readers, regarding analysis and calls made on this counter in this thread, please digest with care. There may be manipulative quarters hanging around.

:)

That's what makes the world go round

Indeed there are lots of emotions and perception twists flying around. I may have mistaken this for a political forum. Keep the good work going.

Huh?

@scjm3: Anyone who reads this thread in its entirety will know that my stand on this counter has been steadfast on the positive side all along as I believe in its fundamentals. In either case we are in the same bandwagon in the same direction so I hope that your positive tune will continue with unshakable confidence.

If my prediction is correct and barring any bad market sentiments from QE taper next Thursday, this stock will trade > RM1.93 before 01 Oct.

@scjm3: I am not sure how you interpret 'amazed' to be 'don't you wish to see happiness and positivity around'. Fundamentally strong counter supported by positive market participants as shown by the firm technical indicators, good time to be positive. Definitely not time to cry 'wolf' :)

Amazed at the positive tune in this thread today. :)

I have one good news and one bad news. Good news is LBS today seemed to have a breakout after forming a quick cup and handle chart pattern = may see further upside bias. The bad news is the breakout may be 'fake' due to potential -ve market sentiment this Thursday (US congress vote on Syria) and next week (FOMC meeting aka QE tapering). If in doubt, Investors may want to wait until end of next week for some certainty.

Of course. I think we are on the same page :) apart from the interpretation of bullish and bearish as buy or sell signals. Those are just observations of the charts and not a call to buy or sell. My tone here has always been to caution against panic buying (chase) or selling if people do not know what they are investing in / cant hold.

(like)

Speaking like a true fund manager :)

Of course there is nothing wrong with that. It is an open market. The only worrying portion that the community needs to work on is market panic. Panic can create many bad things - not just $$$

That's definitely true.

@scjm3: I agree with you. Lets see what happens later today and this week.

@scjm3: Cool down mate. I am just sharing what I observed from the charts and indicators - not my personal opinion. Secondly, if I may repeat, I did not put RM1.74 up because it was transacted today. RM1.74 is the current SMA20. For a stock, if it can cross above SMA20, it means it is bullish. Currently LBS has NOT crossed over SMA20 yet. RM1.74 is a target, not a done deal. I hope we don't misunderstand each other.

Now market is still in euphoria due to upbeat Chinese export data. Thursday could be down because US Congress may authorize a strike on Syria. Market sentiment can go either way. External sentiments for this week and next can change drastically.

RM1.74 is the current SMA20. If it can cross over that convincingly, we are talking about a bullish sentiment on this stock. It has nothing to do with transacted price so far. Anyway it is too early to call the closing / high / low for today. It is only 10.35am.

@Euscilyn: My targets for today are at RM1.71, RM1.74, RM1.77. My note to potential buyers are need to be cautious on Thursday. If cannot hold, please do not buy.

Technically speaking, it is still too early for the cycle to end. Daily RSI just crossed over the 50 threshold and is still bullish. Target for LBS today is to sustain RM1.71. Next target will be RM1.74 to ascertain the bullish sentiment on this stock followed by next pivot point at RM1.77. Support is seen at RM1.67-68 range. At the moment, judging from momentum, buyers are still cautious since transacted volume is relatively low.

That's 39.5 pt up from previous close.

Side comment on the market sentiment. Despite the uncertainty in US strike against Syria & QE tapering, the KLCI futures seemed to have ended with a 4-pt premium over the cash index against a 12-pt discount on Friday. Wow. How these 2 weeks pan out will be very interesting.

@scjm3: Thanks but if you don't mind me asking, why are you planning to take down your postings? Comments are based on known factors during that time anyway.

Look at percentage. 3 sen so far is 1.83%. KLCI 0.87%.

Thanks in advance. Looking forward to your analysis of the fair value of this company. Good luck.

Good notes from the book. Thx for sharing.

There you go. The interest from the HK / CN based partners. 5%.

Yeah that's true. Lets see what comes out of it.

US markets seem to be in very good green territory so far.

@Stockwatch: Regarding palm oil prices, you are right. Actually it reached RM3500+ in 2012. Though we must not forget that competition from other grain type oil such as soybean oil has increased together with production. IMHO, its more a supply & demand thing. To be honest with you, personally I am actually glad that the food type oil has decreased. It can only mean good things for world food prices esp the poorer countries.

@Stockwatch: Thanks for the notes. These are definitely good. I will try to relate these to the discussion on LBS.

I am not sure whether the reference of 45% domestic investment in property is referring to all investments or just investments in property stocks in Bursa. Either way, it is a healthy indicator which means property sector is more resilient since it is domestically driven. In total, foreign shareholding in Bursa accounts for 24.6% of total investments. Issue arose in several counters with high foreign holdings such as UEMS which was why they have been sold down heavily recently. They have good fundamentals but foreign shareholding is high. LBS should not face this issue ... yet.

Regarding the profits from the sale of land of LBS, the payments will be staggered over 4 years in cash and shares. Due to this, they have also adopted a special dividend policy to pay special dividends over the next 4 years. We will likely seen the use of the cash proceeds to reduce gearing and improve landbank in Malaysia esp. Iskandar. Between China and land near to Singapore, I think it is a no brainer. Furthermore JV development on the last parcel of land in Zhu Hai will be another catalyst.

Yeah. Good points. Agree on being cautious. One thing to note is that we are talking about 2 different things here. One is company fundamentals, the other is market sentiment. Market sentiment is definitely bearish at the moment so no one is trying to paint it as rosy.

Although unrelated to this thread, here's a simplistic & humble balanced view of known factors that may impact (good or bad) the Malaysian market sentiment.
- Strong economic recovery in US (Q2 GDP +2.5% above expectation of 1.7%)
- QE tapering (print less money) leads to exodus of foreign funds. Already happening. When tapering really starts, it may just be a short kick for a while and then we should be back on track.
- USD/MYR exchange rate low due to foreign selling / maturing of bonds. Good for exports, bad for imports. Plantation (palm oil) sector?
- EU out of recession. Not great since not all EU countries are growing but still good news (Q2 GDP +0.3%)
- China still growing. Mixed News.
(Q2 GDP +7.3% - slowest 3 years)
(Aug 2013 Manufacturing PMI 50.1 - highest in 16 months)
- ASEAN economies. Mixed.
(Q2 GDP PH, SG very good)
(Q2 GDP IND good but in twin deficit. Market crashed recently)
(Q2 GDP TH contraction. Risky)
- Impending Syrian air strike = Oil price high. Mixed. Ground troops is highly unlikely so this probably will not be another Iraq or Afghanistan. Good or bad for O&G sector? Airline sector? Property sector?

Internal factors
- Malaysian economy is growing (Q2 GDP +4.3%) - below 5% but higher than Q1 (4.1%).
- Malaysian current account surplus narrowing but still positive. Need immediate attention.
- Credit rating by foreign rating agencies. Need immediate attention on fiscal reform = Budget 2014, Fiscal Policy Committee.
- Who will be PM? Will impact GLCs, government spending / projects. Most likely status quo.
- Inflationary pressure due to petrol price hike, electricity tariff hike. Mixed. Will have impact on earnings.
- BNM policies on overnight policy rate, regulations on borrowing etc. to curb inflation, property speculation. This will definitely have impact on property & banking sectors.
- RPGT hike. As comparison SG has quite stringent policies on gains tax. Do you see their property sector on a downturn?
- Over-Panic selling (or buying) which is not part of 'take profit' or 'cut loss' plan in response to any good / bad news whether correlated or not. IMHO, this is the most dangerous.

Remains my humble opinion.

@derrickinvestor: There was one important fundamental change since Aug 2013 so you cannot compare the price vs last year.

Elaborating on what scjm3 posted above, LBS has completed the sale of 2 out of 3 parcels of land they have in ZhuHai. The proceeds of the 2 parcels alone is sufficient for them to buy back the entire market cap in Bursa. The last parcel (most valuable piece) is still retained for future development. According to last estimate by CIMB (2 Aug 2013), their RNAV/share is RM5.05 which means that at RM1.70, they are trading at 66% discount to RNAV/share v.s. sector average of 25%. Even with a conservative 40% of RNAV/share gives LBS a fair value of RM3.03. Therefore RM1.70 is definitely not high.

@scjm3: Very well said and good notes. Thanks.