it's good or bad?

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LeeTHX Triangle
04/10/2021 7:29 AM

U estimate is based on on maintained demand of glove and TG didn't lose any of his customer from competition. Under that circumstances, most also we can give TG back it's precovid valuation. Most profit already dispensed into share holder pocket and doesn't belong to TG anymore.

Else, increased production capacity will only drives the price down. There is NO BENEFIT expanding capacity with declining demands.

Unless the strategy is to bleed the competitor to death while bleeding yourself driving ASP below USD22, Then we do expect a red quarter. Which I wouldn't recommend at all. A red quarter, might drop PE down below 20.

Now TG has 3 challenges.
1) Declining demand reducing ASP.
2) Increased competition
3) ESG.

Let say if margin drops below Precovid, then TG shouldn't be able to sustain it's precovid valuation.
The question now is how bad? U r in denial if u can't even agree that there will be a decline of glove demand postcovid. With increased competition, TG will suffer both reduced revenue and margin. Increased capacity doesn't proportionally equate increase sale.

Only thing TG can do facing the headwinds is to increase production without increasing the overhead. But there is nothing TG can do on declining ASP and demand other than making it worse.


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AdCool Your estimation is only when ASP dropped below USD22. The competition will all die by then especially those newcomers. Many of you still think that China is like 20 years ago producing cheap labor. Malaysia labor is cheaper than them. You guys should go and take a look in China and see it for yourself. It's no longer balik Tong Shan. We are the "Tong Shan" and kampung here in Malaysia. The stats by various research houses also showing such trend since 10 years ago taking over Malaysia.

Even at ASP USD22 which was the ASP back in 2018/2019, Gloves were still making profits of around 7-10% and these are the companies that been around for 30 years. Top Glove in moving forward would make around RM800 mil - RM1 bil profit per year due to 25% expansion (by 2023), higher ASP than USD22 (most analysts think it would be above USD28-USD35 in 2023) and best of all, RM60-100 millions additional incomes per quarter due to interest saving and interest gain. It would be 2 -2.5 time more than what Top Glove made during pre Covid era in 2018/2019.

Interest paid in
FY2018 - 36.772 mil
FY2019 - 79.281 mil
FY2020 - 31.45 mil
FY2021 - 3.495 mil

Interest received
FY 2018 - 12.256 mil
FY 2019 - 10.086 mil
FY 2020 - 23.889 mil
FY 2021 - 61.153 mil

The reason it looks so bleak now is because you are comparing it with ASP USD120 and not USD22.

Lai ular, buat kira2 ckit boleh? Analyst s#hai RHB yg cakap TG market cap above RM100B mana? Itu sangat b#llsh#t. Dari RM10 tukar jadi RM1.68 sudah masih mau beda sana sini.

Sgt kasi muka. Itu tikus punya valuation RM1.68 ada la Market cap RM13.7B. Klu profit jatuh RM450M per annum, dan market(tikus) kasi muka PE31, ada RM1.68 with RM13.7B market cap. klu market kasi PE 25 apa jadi?

Klu profit turun RM400M per annum dan market kasi muka. Kasi PE25 je. PE25 X RM400M profit per annum, market cap adalah RM10B. Itu harga RM1.22. That's a very real number.

Klu tak kasi muka, jatuh PE15 on RM400M profit, woah....baru dapat RM6B market cap. Kalau lah TSLWC tak kasi dividend. Semua cash simpan dalam company. Tak mungkin TG market cap below RM20B. Itu silap paling besar TSLWC.

cuba pikir mamat yg invest Feb dan cabut sebelum Dec tahun lepas. Capital gain dapat, dividend dapat. Apa mamat yg join selepas Dec tahun? Dpt habuk, rugi dan sakit hati. Dan mati2 tak mau mengaku silap.

Boleh buta mata, jgn buta hati la sawa.


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UlarSawa Siapa bonggok. Tak tau kira PE ke. Nak Ular ajar ke. Correct?


So far Analist Lowest TP for TG is RM1.68 by Tiger Mafia gang.

Itu Mighty Tikus TP rm450mil per annum profit.

So PE 31 lah.

Nvm, I come back 2022-2023...Check in how Gtrade, Sawa and PowerofGlove.

Remember, it's ok to turn pale. Don't turn blue k? =D

Things got worse. That's why I doubt there will still be RM400M profit per annum 2022 onwards. If TG failed to sustain above certain revenue, it will go deep in the red consider how fast it's margin turn thin.

You do want competition. You do want want competition especially from China.

So, using 2019 profit as reference is very give face already. There are business that for every RM1 generated, lose 10sen for over rapid expansion and high overhead.

People are not talking about projected increase in 2021, people are talking about projected decline in ASP. U still stuck in 2020 is it?

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AdCool Whoever still stuck with RM400 million nett profit must have left behind in 2019 and did not move together with the time to 2021/2022 now. Could be a mental disorder due to long term MCO and stay at home fatigue. Their time is frozen in 2019. They may still tell you their 2019 age if you ask them now.

Market cap jatuh jadi RM10B la bonggok! RM10B kasi bahagi RM400M, dapat tak PE25? Dapat? Dapat? Itu Mighty Tikus kasi PE 31 on RM450 for RM14B market cap ada banyak kasi muka lo.

Lu ingat market cap RM20B selama2 kah? Itu RM10B sudah kasi muka lo. Profit jatuh negative, RM10B market cap punya tak tentu ada bagitau lu.

Just incase u think is impossible. TG drop from 90B market to 20B now. Who values a company with shrinking margin and revenue at RM90B market cap. That's madness.


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UlarSawa Siapa tu analist so panlai kira one. Economist Mighty Tikus TP 450mil per annum pun PE 31 lah. Rm400 boleh dapat PE 25 ke. Pakai otak lah sikit kira. Correct?

Oh sudah renew. Apa harga lu renew? Ada renew banyak? Macam Gtrade. 15% invested. Ada 85% cash lagi. Lu le? Kasi lu renew RM2.5 ada happy? Tak pernah turun sampai RM2.5 pun kasi lu. Tahun depan kami update semula.

Boleh jadi pucat, jgn jadi biru. Still got alot to live for. Not just Topglove. =D

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UlarSawa Ular dah cakap mah. Renewing FD at higher interest Kenapa ramai tak faham apa meaning ke. Another Otak cacing jus ke. Same thing mah Msia kilang kena MCO rumning at 60% capacity forever ke. Fight lah see who win at the end lah. Taikor ada 100b capacity lah. Takut apa. Correct?

Lai sawa, crita ckit brp quarter punya 5 sen dividend baru dpt BREAKEVEN. Jgn cakap untung.
Lu pandai, cuba kira sekejap. Sudah rugi RM2. RM2 bahagi 5sen, brp tahun?

Nampak sgt Sawa bodoh. Bila pulak I cakap RM20B Market Cap with RM400M profit ialah PE 25?

Nampak noktah sebelum PE25. Tapi PE 25 on RM400M forward earnings perannum mmg RM10B. Boleh buta mata. Jangan buta hati. Kalau betul profit drop to RM400M perannum, market cap RM10B pun susah mau tahan.

RSS buat kiraan FPE25 on RM400M per annum profit baru dapat RM10B valuation. Skrg ada RM20B market cap. Ada 50% discount lagi. I tak cakap profit pergi negative lagi ye. Faham si sawa?

That's why I kasi muka FPE 25 on RM400M profit for Market cap RM10B. Still got 50% discount. Silap2 FPE 15 on RM400M profit per annum, u baru dapat valuation RM6B. Sawa punya darah akan habis muntah.

TSLWC should hv kept his RM15-20B profit in company instead of paying dividend. I bet he regrets like hell now.

RM20B valuation at the back of 400M per annum profit. PE25 is only RM10B valuation. RSS knows what they are doing.

People that's supporting is more worried than ppl that's shorting.

Don't forget. On top reducing infection, vaccine role is to reduce severe cases. No severe cases. No hospitalization. No hospitalization, no need gloves. This is known fact. And this the direction.
And booster dose is not a bad news. It's a good news. To further reduce infection and severe symptoms. Look at what vaccine did to TG, u should be scared that more ppl take that booster dose. Instead of 99.9% recovery. It becomes 99.99% recovery.

So, don't talk like vaccine doesn't do anything.

Itu masalah... SG tak sebonggok malaysia. U mau SG cecah 10-20K cases, u perlu Malaysian menteri sebagai SG menteri. Then u get 20-30K. Terbukti already. =D

Lai, u export our former minister there, I buy TG together with you. =D

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UlarSawa Belum 6 bulan lagi after 2 doses lah. Spore now preparing firvthe worst for 5k to 10k cases lah. Ada baca minister comment ke. Hospital bed pun tak cukup nanti la

Sawa kalah sampai jd bonggok. China punya kilang going to tutup forever is it? Most mar postpone ur further bleed by 3 months. Then what? Bleed all the way down to RM1.5 correct? =D

See bila kilang bukak balik. I see if you still have any blood left to bleed. Pucat ok la.
Just don't turn blue only.
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UlarSawa You takda baca Newspaper ke. Sept China power supply cut. Semua kilang kilang pun tutup kedai lah. Ada lagi 29% market share lagi ke. Pakai otak sikit cakap lah. Die die want TG Taikor bankrupt ke. Another JPM and Tiget macai ni. Correct?

Those that can't handle covid and die already died. Those that don't die won't die.
U give COVID 2 more years. It will be treated like common flu la sorzai. So what the numbers are high when the recovery rates 99.9%? With vaccination. It only goes up. U want say they stop mass testing hence active cases dropped is misleading. I can agree with that.

How do you explain drop in death and severe symptoms? These are properly document statistics. Far lower percentage of severe symptoms from positive cases. U got see the world panic over seasonal flu? Most mar higher MC only.

People move on. Getting too hung up in the past won't save u.
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ThePowerOfGlove

but after opening up & loosening up, their daily infection rates surged back up like heck again, you reckon msia is invincible?

Cannot blame RSS.

Opposite of RSS are supporter that artificially support price at unrealistically high valuation with margin. We can only get free market when there is RSS to counter margin facilities. If want ban RSS, then SC need to ban margin also lo.

See, both are 2 sides of the same coin. I like both RSS and Margin. They materialize intrinsic value alot faster. Makes the game whole lot more exciting.

And don't forget, there are tax revenue from high trading activities via broker fee. If u remove RSS and Margin. Hahahhaa. Bursa Malaysia can close shop liao. i3Investor also can close shop liao. No ppl come BS anymore.

China increase glove production from 9% to 29% market share in 3 months.

U give China a year, Top Glove won't be top anymore lo.

New glove company don't hv dead log with better margin. TG got plenty on top of ESG.
When comes to global glove throw price, u know who will win la. TG si kiao kiao.

Like how Trade War started. Malaysian MITI 5% steel import can't protect Malaysian local steel manufacturer. Lets see how TG Q4 QR on next year Mac. Then we know how to price TG's prospect. There is no point increasing revenue when there is no margin.

But the problem with business like TG. No revenue will quickly translate deeper into red. Like business like AirAsia. High overhead, low margin. No revenue, deep deep in the red for u see.

Well, I hope TSLWC won't break his green record for the first time.


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FortuneBlooming global population right now growing at 90 million per year

this growth, just like your fd interest, is compounded over time

so, in just 7 more years, there's gonna be another 1 billion people on this planet

in just 12 more years, another 2 billion
04/10/2021 11:43 AM

Aiks. Malaysia cases drop from 20K to below 10K tak mau crita. Covid ward semua mula tutup tak mau crita.

SG 1K naik 2K pok pek pok pek non stop. SG 2K turun 1K sap sap sui la.

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ThePowerOfGlove singapore covid-19 cases just hit record high 2,909 cases per day on friday 1 october 2021
04/10/2021 11:15 AM

Hands of Midas is all about book cooking under disguise of strategic asset management.

price was pressed by Maybank. Warrant CP and CQ expired this month

Next expiring warrant is CT from Macquarie Capital on 30 Oct. But I dont think MQ got enough skin to press price.

After MQ is Ambank's CU in Jan. So price should rally from now till Dec.

Monkey have rights too ok?
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lotuseater Why are there always people who have nothing better to do, claiming this share will rise or drop to a certain price without saying why?. If you do not have any justification, better keep your comment to yourself and be quiet.
25/09/2021 8:01 AM

So Gtrade, price go up, u happy or unhappy? =P

Happy that you are not losing alot of money. Unhappy because didn't drop to your price for your next entry. Naik also no meat cos 15% of total holding.

U wanna change ur story on ur "money management"?

Jatuh bawah RM2, menyesal la kau. Correct?
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UlarSawa ular still at here leh. wtg dividend lagi. renewing FD at higher interest rate is still my dream. Why Tiger n JPM macai no power kah. Work harder sikit. Boleh?
28/09/2021 9:33 AM

there is a type of people in KLSE i3. Their FOMO is so strong that would go to any top gainer to claim they bought day low, and sold day high.

Day day buy day low, day day sell day high. Don’t know which bomoh they use.

15% of ur capital. I assume even if it rebound back to RM5, you don’t hv alot to gain too right? =P

Why pok pek pok pek until u sound like u going to kill urself if it drops below RM2.

It’s ok. By RM2.5, u can enter another 15% of your total cash. Assuming u have any.
Then I wanna see what you going to say when it’s RM1.50.

How do u plan to justify TG’s 40B market valuation at RM5? My concern is if profit driven down to 400m per annum, that will put TG at PE50 at current price. Very likely can drop another half which is PE 25 at RM1.30 with valuation of RM10B. That’s not cheap, not expensive.

At this price Rm1.50 is safe, but no upside. U see Genetec’s meteoric rise only market valuation of 2B.

U r better off looking for counter with 100-200M market cap. 8-10m profit per annum.
Increasing profit from 10m to 20m is whole lot easier than 400m back to 800m.

But 2.4B super normal profit to drop to 600m just took 2 quarters. Hahahahha….

u enter at RM5 also lose money….can’t imagine those entered above…

At one point, I was ridiculing JPMorgan report at RM3.50. It’s Rm2.50 soon.

Secret to gambling success is know when to leave the table. I hope u know.

Ppl decided to live with it.

Those that gonna die already died. Only left those that won’t die got what’s left to scared?

Got a friend kena few rounds summore. Mar like that lo. From now on, the recoveries will be the same as those kena flu. But ofcos, those heavily invested in glove will related common cold needs glove.

Anyway, we need hand sanitizer more than glove.

u lost how much money Gtrade? How desperate are you?

What will happen to you if it drops below RM2? No more money to top up ur margin call?

Tmr i come support 2.40.

analogy sama. Bila tak bikin duit. Semua janda.

Bila bikin duit, jadi darling. Covid is going to pass…By next year, nobody will be talking about covid. When nobody talking about covid, no one talks about glove.

u see those support and RM6 and RM7 semua mana pergi?

Dunno how a PhD in Business Administration comes to such conclusion that it’s worth more than 20B at all especially all the cash is being spent on paying dividend.

This kinda windfall cash, keep in company. If cash alone contributes to RM3 per share, u think market got any choice but to buy above RM3. Now, NTA 80sen. Value at RM2.40 also give face like considering a matured company like TG.

by the time profit goes negative from competition. U know la…

RM1B market cap pon tarak…Like sapura. Once upon a time 20B. Now, 2B tak sampai.

Gtrade, help calculate TG’s forward earning…

Can maintain 500m a year?

that’s the question market is asking…

u see counter that has been 6-8B profit for past 10-15 years only dare to ask for 80B market cap. Maybank/PB bank. Covid no covid still make money one.

TG le? One time 10B profit wanna demand 80B market cap and more.

By 2022, if profit drop to 500M how? U didn’t calculate that leeeee…that’s TG pre covid price.

alot ppl queue…but no volume…

I wonder…

U talk like this since RM4.50.

Ok la...instead RM2 loss, becomes RM1.70 loss...
let u celebrate abit...

THis friday become RM2. U also dunno where to hide ontop of RM2.50 loss. =D
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AnakUlarSawa Arini Tiger Clan Macai tak nampak alot. leftva few kucing appear only. No wonder lah. Takda power ke. Cepat Cepat mari lah. Tiger Macai where are you. Correct?
22/09/2021 3:49 PM

Do we hv cure for flu? Do we have cure for AIDS? No.
Do these diseases stop us going around and stop f#cking? HELL NO!
We put a mask and some rubber. Settle.

Like spanish flu. Those will die one already died. Those that won't die will continue their life.
Dunno why still sell panic. Statistics after 1.5 year is 98+% recovered. You give another 1.5 years. U will be more likely to die in a train than covid. =D

Yeah, maybe u keep too many gloves. Maybe next year u can use glove instead of condom. Each glove can use 5 times. More economical. ASP of condom far more expensive than glove. Maybe TG can start selling condoms.

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AdCool I just wanna go out and have coffee/tea at a cafe, go for my normal breakfast/lunch at neighborhood restaurants, catch up a movie once a month, walk safely to malls to buy stuffs and go to the park with family also restricted and have worries now. Ppl travelling to Langkawi also got "cursed" for not avoiding crowded places or risking others if they got infected with virus. Now Goverment is opening up Genting Highland, Melaka and Tioman. I asked few friends, nobody dare to go to Genting Highland with their children even with the new theme park. How are we gonna be back to pre Covid norm? It s just impossible now unless we have a cure or have a vaccine that can stop infection. Not a vaccine that just have probability of reducing severe illness but cant stop the infection.

Dunno le. Although no downgrade, IB and FF disposing. What u guys think?

Ular rich. Too much money. Rather flush money down toilet also dont want admit wrong.

But other ppl not rich. I enter 3.29, tot its low stillhad to cutloss 3.06 and 2.81. Will try agqin at 2.20. If still hv to cutloss got nothing to say liao.

Its best u cutloss. My friend that listen to me thanked me. If he didnt cutloss. He is looking at 80% capital loss. 2% dividend also need 40 quarters. Just to breakeven. Jgn cakap untung.

Bad student need better teacher…

So, if ular refuse to learn. More teacher will come.

U r better off pretend uu cutloss. Then teacher move on to other student.

i3 got alot of magical people…no worries Tkeng. =D

don't like that...Maybe other kang tao go chance...

My 61.5, 62.5, 65, 68.5 entries exited at 75sen...

only left 69.5sen and 70sen entry aiming 85sen...Dunno can or not...


duitKWSPkita 85sen can or not?

u ni mmg magical....=D
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Tkeng Managed to dispose 0.79-0.795. Will re- enter later if price attractive.
Congrats to those who bought below 0.70.
21/09/2021 2:36 PM
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Tkeng Scared to hold. Sentiment bad lor... lol.
Will wait for now. Cheers!
17/08/2021 2:27 PM

duitKWSPkita, eh guys taking profit ka? if taking profit, don't quiet2 there...

wong4349@gmail.com

Auditor that sign rubbish book also won't sign off.

What are the odds EY will sign it off. I think EY also looking around which of their associate ready to lose his license to sign this SD pays SD to pay SD's book.

If they do, I wanna know who. That guy upgraded his steel balls to inconel balls.

how to join?

freezer price should be RM1.50.