I would suggest @Lukesharewalker just be quiet, non-stop talking about syndicates makes you sound like you're one of them

Bottomed out at 80 cents, I think that's the end of this round of retracement. Now on the way up. At the current prices, forward PE is something like 10-12, which is pretty undervalued. That's before factoring in whatever it is Karim and R & R are planning.

The current price is basically on par with NTA already, very hard to go down further for an asset class like this (which typically trades above NTA because it is profitable).

If you all want to run, sell your shares to me, thanks :) I don't mind adding more

In the meantime it will go up and go down, but trending upwards. If you feel confident to play momentum, sell on high and buy on dip. If you don't have time to pay attention (and don't want to miscalculate), just buy and hold. I did a mix of both, already sold and bought 4 times already since this counter was 17 cents.

No need to see all these rumours and nonsense la, see the facts on the ground. Profits jumped last quarter, and there's going to be 20-30% increased volume coming on-stream by middle of the year, and double volume within 1 year. Unlike gloves, there isn't an oversupply, so the ASP will remain high. You do the mathematics. By this time next year, assuming maintain 20 PE, we'll be looking at a TP of 2.00 at least. Maybe if they decide to stop using their profits for capex, then Esceram will turn into a dividend counter, rewarding shareholders for holding. Maybe that is what R & R are aiming to benefit from.

One thing I'm not sure about is what is the real impact of Rosli and Rosland's stake? Not talking about the influence on the market sentiment, but what do they bring to Esceram's core business? As far as I know, they are linked to construction sector, how will it tie in with making glove formers? Or maybe they're just savvy investors with some extra cash?

@Valueinvesting They are churning out about 4,000 Ativa a month, at this rate by end of June there will be more on the road than X50 although it had a four month start. That's before we even talk about after-sales service. I decided to take profit on DRB and buy more MBMR--besides capital gains you also have steady dividends.

Another interesting counter to watch is Bermaz Auto. They did a good job with Mazda marque and now just secured Kia. Kia had been horribly managed by Naza up to this, really spoil the brand. Good cars, excellent value and suitable for Malaysian tastes but their after-sale service was horrible. Got potential there.

Congrats to whoever bought on the dip.

@Kengor Yeah mine also not in yet. Wait a while longer I guess.

In the meantime guys, some news: https://paultan.org/2021/04/01/perodua-q1-2021-sales-increase-29-to-almost-58k-4345-units-of-the-ativa-delivered-in-less-than-a-month/

Good news for MBMR

There are strange people on these comment boards. Over time I learn to just ignore haha

@ Fundamentals - thanks for sharing but you back up your assertions with some data? Who is predicting that supply will exceed demand and ASP will be very low? I've seen some projections and from what I can tell, ASP is only really expected to 'normalise' after 5 years. 2021 and half of 2022 are already priced in, as the order booked are already filled. We're going to see the same level of profits at least for the next 4 quarters.

Anyway I'm not saying that the downtrend will not continue. I fully expect another 20-30% in the red. So I am looking to do the same thing as you too, buy cheap later on. I don't mind, my investments are in recovery play, but I still monitor gloves because it might lead to a future buying opportunity, and because I bought just before the pandemic and sold once I made my money.

I just think it's sad that we're getting manipulated by some IBs while it's not happening in the basically the same business in other countries, where their IBs are not trying this trick. That's all.

@Fundamental123 I agree we need to look at the underlying numbers but something doesn't seem right when you compare glove company performance on Bursa vs Thailand (Sri Trang) and Singapore (Riverstone, UG Healthcare).

Make two comparisons: between current prices and pre-pandemic prices, and between PE ratios. I am using Google Finance PE readings at today's closing prices, to be consistent.

From there you see that Riverstone (whose factories are in Malaysia btw, just that it's not listed on Bursa) PE is 8.86. The price is around 60% of the pandemic high. Similar pattern with UG Healthcare. Sri Trang gloves, almost exactly same pattern: 60% of pandemic high, PE 8.48.

Compare to Supermax (PE 4.45), Carepls (PE 5.75), Comfort (3.88). I leave TopGlove out of this since they have ESG concerns.

So what can we infer from this? Is it that the other big glove companies listed on SGX and Thailand stock exchange are overvalued, and it's only the IBs in Malaysia that are smart enough to price in decline in ASP? If we want to look at worldwide industry situation, why is it that Malaysian gloves trade at basically anywhere between 35-50% discount compared to their peers in Singapore and Thailand?

Seems to me there are a few things: (1) RSS effect on local sentiment. Can't run away from this. (2) The effect of so many non-glove companies on Bursa trying to 'diversify' into gloves, like Mah Sing and probably more than 10 other companies at this point. This creates fear that there will be an oversupply, but honestly, industry insiders are skeptical that these newcomers can compete with the established players who already have their supply chain connections, customer relationships, and expertise. Not to mention all the established players are so cash rich right now that their capex will give them an even bigger lead over newer players.

The whole situation is rather irrational but that's Bursa for you, I guess. If the price goes down over the next 3 months, I would say it's an opportunity to buy, but only for the strong hearted. No way of knowing where is lowest low. I thought Careplus would bottom out at 1.45 but here we're sitting at 1.3 and maybe can go even lower.

One thing for sure is that earnings still talks at the end of the day. If you got patience I think there will be a chance to make money here. But of course you can also say that about lots of other companies out there. Good luck everyone and be sure not to invest more than you are ready to lose.

At this point, Wan Dollah practically standing at the door already. Dua Dollah can't see yet, but this company's fundamentals and growth deserves it, for sure.

Lim and Ng bought more at 1.42.

@spyking -> 0.7 is forward PE 2.4, that would be an amazing buying opportunity

Just realised that my Esceram anniversary passed recently. Bought in March last year at less than 20 cents (pre bonus issue). Right now it is effectively >9 times the value, with more headroom to go.

Excellent dividend last quarter. Looking forward to more.

@Luke errr you keep mentioning syndicates, but I don't see any evidence of syndicates involved. Define and give evidence or I suggest you maybe don't

The bargain period from 1.80-1.85 is well over by now I'd say.

Again this is just the FA that I'm doing. Don't take my words for granted, go do your own DD. I'm just a goat monster with internet access and keyboard.

The warrant expiry date is still quite far off so I'd say the most important thing is whether the margin between warrant and mother share price suits you. Generally speaking, the warrant will trail the mother share by about 20 cents (the conversion fee) but sometimes if the warrant value 'lags' then you can get a decent margin.

One thing to note is that if Esceram declares dividends then that's eligible for mother share, not warrant. I won't be surprised if Q4 we will get some. They won't want to hold so much cash, so should either give out as dividends (short-term gain for shareholder) or utilise as capex (long term gain for shareholder). The dividends from Esceram since last year is negligible because they have been constantly using for capex, expanding their capacity. We benefited from it in the recent quarter, but there's much more to come. Based on the company announcements we can expect volume to double over the next 12 months. The demand is certainly there. How that translates into profits is anyone's guess, but it should be decent.

But the other way round is also true. More warrant conversion means less warrant yet to be converted. Notice that although we have a lot of warrant conversion this week, the price is pretty stable. Holding power is there. All of us holding mother share can just be patient for the next two quarters, I really think will easily hit 1.30-1.40, maybe more.

Large number of warrant conversion means dilution for the mother share, because there are more shares for the same amount of 'company'. But it can also be a good thing, since the exercise price goes into the company's coffers, they get to use for capex, increasing production. Esceram's growth trajectory is clear so I'm not too worried even with the dilution effect. The growth is going to surpass it.

PE low, net cash, stable profits, future growth clearly in pipeline, beneficiary from E&E and Healthcare. If boring please sell more, I want collect around 50 cents :)

Haha not advertising, I just think better when I type out my thoughts. Everybody just do your own DD and invest accordingly

@Luke I think you're referring to the new capacity in Sadao for glove manufacturers. Those are supposed to only start contributing in July 2021 according to the group: 'The demand for gloves has accelerated their growth plans, as they recently committed to invest up to RM9m to increase its production capacity by 50% at its existing Sadao plant. According to D’nonce, the new production lines will only start contributing to revenue in July 2021.'

The recent press release affirms this: 'the installation of the offset printing machine for our glove packaging boxes in Sadao, Thailand is completed and shall commence mass production very soon once production trial run is concluded.”

So in conclusion we can look forward to a stable Q2 and a much better Q3 & Q4.

More corporate announcements today show that Rosli and Roslan topped up massively at the 86-87 cent price on 17 and 18 March last week. I think this one can just hold and tutup mata

I'd say it's good la, look at the company's results from 2011-2019, before this new management. Definitely turned around and stable already. Net assets per share quite substantial. A lot of retained earnings on their books, maybe will be used for capex and/or give out as dividends some day.

Next 4 quarters will be good -- E&E are here to stay and the packaging for gloves and healthcare will definitely be filled up and necessary. It's only 'not good' if you're looking for super-normal profits -- that one you need to find somewhere else.

Based on the QR now released, seems like a full year EPS of 5.0-5.5 more likely. At PE 12 probably 60 cents is fair value for now.

My conclusion is that based on FA, this counter has lots of potential but might need to wait. Safe to hold, but I might prefer to put money elsewhere to make a quicker buck.

@Ke3t the baseline for me is 4 million PAT for the quarter. That was two quarters ago. Last quarter was 3.2 PAT apparently due to unexpected maintenance etc -- if done well should be okay now. Supposedly this quarter should be 4 mil again, then next quarter, the Sadao expansion will kick in to increase volume. We're looking at an annualized profit of around 15-18 million due to extra volume by end of the year.

Assuming PE 10, then the current prices are about 10% undervalued; if PE 15 or 20, then the sky's the limit. Depends on whether profits can sustain + grow, therefore attracting other investors. I'm willing to continue holding some but may divest part of my stake to put in more responsive companies if there isn't any movement soon.

Upsides: Visible movements by Proton to expand its export market. Helps break free from the limited Malaysia market. The X50 and X70 getting good attention overseas. Honda Malaysia still steady, the City is doing well and new HRV will attract interest.

Downsides: Chip shortage affecting whole industry, poor reputation for after-sale service and parts availability. In my view the chip shortage hits everybody so is not going to precipitate loss of customers, so this is less of an issue.

No, there's also Ceramtec, a non-listed company. You can find out more on the video that FIRL produced on Esceram.

@Lukesharewalker how you know?

This one I think hold for long term. 80c priced in current earnings but doesn't take into account future growth prospect. The profit margins have improved, and so will the volume. @Jackyyaya made an accurate observation, order books are filled up for some time to come. Let the glove market be oversaturated, but this glove former only got Esceram that is listed.

any idea when QR out?

gloves all expanding but who makes the formers?

heard that they're not issuing dividend because they're using profits for more capex. buy and hold, the future is bright! gloves all

bought some MBMR a few weeks ago, looking to top up if the price is right. unrealized value