Investment = Art + Science . Don't even know who is right or who is wrong.

As said before price of CPO is largely dependent on soy oil price. If soy bean production low enough then the price of CPO may go higher. US soy bean production is projected 20% lower in year 2019 comparing with 2018.

Ok. I reduce my estimation to 52 million ton for year 2019. Here’s the production announcement for 9 months.

https://gapki.id/news/15754/ekspor-sawit-ke-india-kembali-normal

Indonesia CPO production is rather stunning. Annual production increase from 19.4 million ton in 2009 to 47.4 million ton for year 2018. Malaysia production remains about 20 million ton per annual for last. 10 years.

Here to search for one by one in the news.

https://gapki.id/press-release

The estimate increasing consumption from B20 to B30 is about 2.5 to 3.0 million ton per annual.

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/indonesian-road-test-finds-palm-oil-biofuel-safe-cars

Enning22. You can compile the monthly production figures issued by Indonesia authority GAPKI then you would know the actual volume rather than the data from news. This year the latest production volume shows 39.5 millions ton for 9 monthis until Sep 19. My estimation of 54 million tons for the whole year.

Posted by enning22 > Nov 29, 2019 9:32 PM | Report Abuse

@up_down , please get your data accurate, indonesia production forecast to be 45million ton,not 54 million as you mentioned, B30 would take up according to estimate would be 8 to 9 million tonnes, currently program of B20 consumed 5-6 million tonnes.

Indonesia implemented B30 is only part of the factor boosting CPO price higher. In fact, CPO price moves in tandem with soy oil price.

Indonesia is an energy imported country. To increase Biodiesel from B30 to B40 would reduce 2.5 million ton of CPO in a year. Indonesia is expected to produce more than 54 million ton CPO this year. The annual savings from imported fossil oil costs more than USD 1 billion. Indonesia is actually making a right move to stabilized CPO price.

Redtone lost momentum as no big contract is awarded until now. Some more share price shot up 200% since the past 12 months. It's quite reasonable to have such profit taking activities.

Bursa has been busy staging theme-play party this year. Technology theme and follow by Power theme and the latest one Plantation theme. Hope Plantation theme to last longer until 2020.

Better migrate to Johortin for those who are interested in canning business asn CanOne may report lower and lower profit or even suffer losses.

What a joke is they have expanded their carton business to Myamar. They can't even handle the existing operations and some more making new investment overseas in this low margin business.

They should have dispose Boxpak since the operations is grossly inefficient. It's a liability. Carton business is operated in a very competitive environment due to low switching costs. Unlike canning business, switching costs is rather high to the customers in terms of testing and lead time. The operation went suck after the old management left Boxpak.

I doubt the ability of the management in handling big operations. Look at their carton division, Boxpak, keep posting losses or tiny profit whereas Master, Orna & PPHB have been reporting increasing profit. Operations are sucked especially in Vietnam. They only focus in capturing market share and ignoring profit. Be prepared to hold for long term for investing in CanOne.

FF keeps withdrawing money from Bursa. Lake has become a pond now. Not much money for operators to goreng. Operators are getting lesser.

Market is deeply needed big contracts to rescue the share price downtrend now. Any news?

CE issued by CImb with exercise value RM 5.3 is expiring on 30 Jan 19.

FA uptrend mode whereas TA downtrend. It seems investors are pessimism of its future prospects. Risks is getting higher since TA 200 broken.

Allianz will lead Takaful tomorrow. No point for IBs to spend money pressing down share price anymore.

Great QR. As expected gross margin improvement from the reduction of resin raw materials prices. Expecting another better QR next year.

QR is OK. Herpa-P clinical test is the only hope in next few months.

You can read the latest announcement for CC & CD.

CC & CD are suspended tomorrow.

They wanted to trigger massive selling off for breaking TA support 200

Today is the last Date of Trading for both CC & CD.

First round under kyy. This is the 2nd round. Wait for the 3rd round.

It’s unethical not to make money in a business for long term. The business would certainly go burst. So..it is unethical too for being not able to protect our capital investing or trading in share market. The risks of being extinction.

Don’t blame the short sighted of Bursa retailers, it’s the environment causing them to protect their capital as a first priority in such situation. Is it pump and dump? Go for DJ companies with strong moats if you want to seen to be noble in investing for long term or follow 3i.

Everything happens for a reason. Many Bursa retailers have turned into short or mid term investors due to the structural issues of the local business. Many companies are involved in short cyclical business in nature with more than 90% of the listed companies.

Effort of yesterday is obviously wasted if the price up in the closing today.

Wait for the price to cool down first ...Half way big gap up is not a good sign...example MBMR, Takaful, Redtone...

Big volume is traded in last 5 minutes to panic retailers. It could be another show again stage by IBs tomorrow. Opportunity...

Now, Redtone has to wait for the new contract from the government in next few months. Once contract is awarded, it would fly whereas no contract....gg. It all depend on our risks tolerance level.

By looking at the bright side, Telecommunication Services margin was improving by 5% or up from 41% as compared with 36% previously. It's still fine since the company traded at PER 15x ++ after excluding de-consolidation losses.

Redtone Telecommunication Services segment:

PBT
30 Sep 19 - 8.2m
30 Jun 19 - 5.2m (2 months)
30 Apr 19 - 7.6m
31 Jan 19 - 7.5m
31 Oct 18 - 7.4m
31 Jul 18 - 7.3m
30 Apr 18 - 10.2m

Turnover
30 Sep 19 - 20.2m
30 Jun 19 - 13.4m (2months)
30 Apr 19 - 20.7m
31 Jan 19 - 20.9m
31 Oct 18 - 20.6m
31 Jul 18 - 20.1m
30 Apr 18 - 21m


Outstanding order book is about RM 100 million from the contract awarded in December 2017 in MTNS segment.
Redtone MTNS segment:

PBT
30 Sep 19 - 3.7m
30 Jun 19 - 5.6m (2 months)
30 Apr 19 - 7.2m
31 Jan 19 - 1.9m
31 Oct 18 - (2.5)m
31 Jul 18 - (1.9)m
30 Apr 18 - (4.5)m

Turnover
30 Sep 19 - 35.9m
30 Jun 19 - 18.7m (2months)
30 Apr 19 - 52.3m
31 Jan 19 - 23.7m
31 Oct 18 - 8.7m
31 Jul 18 - 9.7m
30 Apr 18 - 8m

MTNS segment is so so only. Redtone needs a big contract to justify future growth.

Good QR but loose momentum.

There is a hope after TAAN has taken over Swkplnt. They did quite well in managing plantation business.

VenFx. Last QR, Nova has reported highest turnover in a quarter even without increasing in Debtor. Cash inflow is quite healthy. It means the management did not push up in sales the final quarter as they did last year. Anyway, it is hard to say in stock market. lolz.

Back to uptrend mode. QR announcement this week?

Speakup. PE is much lower if you exclude one off losses from Deconsolidation of subsidiary 2 quarters ago.

No more cheap sales. why Redtone has moved up do fast in early morning?

It's time rebound until QR announcement. Many players have cut loss and moved to Jaks already.

I am trying at 50.5 cents. yesterday, hit all the ways from 52 to 51.

Believe that Nova Revenue is sustainable. Here's the information in AR.

Extracted from AR 2019:

- FY 2019 - New products were launched into the market including Nova Enzymes tablets, Nova AstaOmega 3 Softgel, Sustinex Vegetable Oil Blend Powder & Nova ALA-SR 300mg tablet.
- Nova Wellness Partner Programme (NWPP) increased from 112 to 118.
- NWPP outlets up from 220 to 243
- Increased in Herpa-P sales from 2nd clinical trials.

Raider. Jaks hit almost 50% gain in a month. What about your Insas? That's why we don't play ego in share market. Making money is more important.

VenFx. It’s now much dependent on QR and Herpa-P clinical tests. If Nova is able to complete 3rd clinical test next year, it may trade PER above 30x.

Perstima needs money to build a new factory in Philippines. Capital Commitments shows RM 239 million. It seems Perstima is unable to maintain dividend payout due to major Capex. Some more, market is quite challenging due to influx of cheap China tinplates.

Hopefully, this is the final round price consolidation before breaking 60 cents and up further.

According to AR 2019. Nova is tightly held by 20 individuals plus Phillip Capital for 88% of the shareholding. It's up to them to make a call.