Just my guess only....

Private placement is underway, likely 90sen to RM 1. Big boys need to sell and should have done the sale between RM 1.15 to RM 1.30 to subscribe for private placements...

from 70sen++ till RM 1.30, good enough for operators. I was here when it was 70sen+.

Remember don't chase high and don't catch the falling knife....

look like game over?

Russia is the second-largest producer of silicon in the world, with its production estimated at 580 thousand metric tons in 2021. The total global silicon production in 2021 amounted to an estimated 8.5 million metric tons.

Russia Ukraine tension may cause silicon price to increase further as well. This tension has been priced in as PMB Tech has good run lately.

Let see the quarterly result which may not be priced fully in yet...

That is correct based on my channel check as i have highlighted about 6 months ago.

The best is ALP is do nothing and earn his salary every year. Only profitable venture is Jaks power plant....

.............................

Windy1974 Jaks is so quiet now. So i decide to contribute something but is detrimental to JAKS and many in solar.
Petronas is going green so they are looking for build and owned solar vendors. Naturally, i have been seeking advise from solar materials suppliers to look at the feasibility. After my discussion with them, i decided not to. Below are summary since i don't feel like a story today.
1. Cost per kw in the region of 0.22 sen +- . So if this is true, all LSS4 gonna lose money. According to supplier, only LSS1 operational now with price then more than 0.30+. Means JAKS after Vietnam, everything else still negative. As i said before, best ALP can do is to do nothing and earn his salary every year.
2. With the costing, not only any LSS2/3/4 investments bad ideas, solar contractors too. I heard margin is less than 10%. So, be very cautious if a contractor showing more than 10% margin!!
Hence, going forward, you would likely only see build and owned model. It's become a capital intensive and low return industry. Not for me

Pmetal mkt cap is around RM 56b. About 7 years ago, its mkt cap is about the same as PMB Tech current mkt cap.

Let see how far PMB Tech can go....

RHB analyst report give projected Profit of PMB Tech around RM 800m when the project profit of Pmetal (PMB Tech is an associate of Pmetal) few months ago.

By using RM 800m profit (forward profit), it will give PMB Tech mkt cap RM 8b based on PE of 10. Pmetal used to have PE of 20 to 30.

about time to take profit on balance shares of Dnex as right issue or private placement is coming for its expansion plan...

i have been thinking when to sell my last batch of DNEX every day...

Right issue or private placement is coming. They need to goreng up now...

after Genetec, Sam, MPI etc, now superstocks are Dnex and PMB Tech...

Those still not onboard, it seems too late to chase as risk is getting higher and have little margin of safety.

What is the next superstock?

CGS-CIMB starts coverage on Dagang NeXchange, target price RM1.60

Surin Murugiah

theedgemarkets.com

February 16, 2022 08:10 am +08

CGS-CIMB starts coverage on Dagang NeXchange, target price RM1.60
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 16): CGS-CIMB Research has initiated coverage on Dagang NeXchange Bhd (DNeX) at RM1.13 with an “Add” rating and target price of RM1.60.

In a note Wednesday (Feb 16), the research house said DNeX is well positioned to benefit from SilTerra’s turnaround, underpinned by on-going semi chips shortages and structural shift towards More-than-Moore (MtM) devices.

The research house said it is projecting SilTerra to invest over RM900 million capex in FY22-24F.

“The group plans to increase its mask layer (ML) capacity by 20% to 10m ML/annum by CY23F.

“We expect SilTerra to secure two new long term agreements (LTAs) in 1HCY22F that will take up 80% of its capacity,”it said.

CGS-CIMB projects DNeX to post a 3-year core EPS CAGR of 453% (FY21-24F) driven by 1) higher wafers ASP, 2) higher wafers production volume on the back of new capacity expansion, 3) higher average crude oil prices for Ping Petroleum Limited (Ping), and 4) higher production volume at Ping on the back of its new capex programme.

“DNeX also enjoys a lower effective tax rate given that SilTerra has over RM12 billion as of Jul-21 in unrecognised deferred tax assets that could be offset against its future profits.

“Note that we have yet to account for: 1) contributions from emerging technology platforms like silicon photonics that command premium ASP, and 2) commercialisation of Ping’s Avalon oilfield,” it said.

alamak compared apple with orange...

My DNEX gained over 38% in just a month. Really cannot believe it...

DNEX gained 38% in just a month. Really cannot believe it

i have been selling some since RM 17 to 19.60 to lock in profit but still hold big amount of PMB. Will consider to add if time is right. This Pmetal sister company is on its way to RM 10b mkt cap in next 3 years. Pmetal mkt cap is RM 55b. About six years ago ie mid 2016, its mkt cap is RM 4.8b. PMB Tech current mkt cap is around RM 3.9b

plantation net profit will be doubled... same as its electronic business net profit

Scope should have half palm oil and half electronic components manufacturer, it should run like Dnex which also has half semiconductor(electronic) and half oil...

Bought some Bplant, one of the most undervalued plantation stocks.

Continued to take some profit on PMB Tech. Foreign funds still favour PMetal and PMB Tech. My contact said they have been accumulating PMB Tech, one of the best green silicon producers in term of costs

Funds sold tech stocks and is buying metal and O&G stocks. Oil include palm oil...

i was told foreign investors have been net buyers of PMB Tech over last few months whereas retail investors are net sellers.

I think this super trend of silicon and aluminum for green producers is not over yet

Portpolio gain 17.8% this year. It is time to take some profit to protect capital first. Sold all Airport as achieve target.

Bought small qtt of Toyoven as bet against its power plant.

Hate to cut loss but some time has to face reality. Sold some Scope during rebound. Now portpolio has over 36% cash..

Took some profit on Dnex and PMB Tech(small qtt) again...

Bought some Harta again...

All time high again...TA master will say no more barrier, the sky is the limit.

All investors make money... Investors who hold the shares for some time make the most...

All time high again today..

Congrate to all PMB Tech holders despite some noises

Sold small qtt of PMB at RM 16.48 to lock in profit.
PMB is still the largest holding in my small cap portpolio

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/04/tsmc-intel-ramp-up-spending-as-semiconductor-demand-booms.html


Tech will not be over( just correction is not over yet, in my view), as tech will always be relevant in our day to day life from computers and hp we used to logistics, communication, agricultural, manufacturing, EV etc. i still maintain Scope.

Just my view...tech correction of local and US will only be over when fed started to increase the rate. I will start invest in more tech stocks when time is right. I have big position in HS Tech etf which i bought aggressively after it drops over 40%...

Investment is 50% emotions, 40% research, 10% luck

hot money gets out from tech and goes to O&G and metal stocks....

Took profit on MPI yesterday. Will relook it after nasdaq selloff is over. Likely after fed starts to increase interest rate. Also took profit on Harta as the strategy is to buy low and sell high for glove stock.

PMB is doing extremely well lately. Funds are moving out from tech to O&G and Metal. Bought back some Armada from the proceed of MPI as earlier batch was sold too early despite good profit

PMB stock price is holding very well despite this tech crash which sees many tech stocks dropped from 20%-50%.

PMB Tech ...some good writeup from other forum

1) Access to cheap and clean source of power / energy.
- The main cost component in producing silicon metal is not quartz, it's energy / power. Samalaju, SESCO, Bakun dam provides clean source of energy (unlike China based peers having energy from coal plants) at competitive price, making PMBTECH one of the lowest cost quartile producer of silicon.

2) China was already the market leader.
- PMBTECH is a newcomer who's slowly taking market share. Unlike glovemakers - who came from position of market leadership losing market share due to change of supply dynamics from China, China is already the incumbent with 70% of market share in global silicon production. US or Europe players may come in, but again - coming back to point number (1), do they have access to ample clean energy in the short / medium term?

3) Management calibre.
- There's a certain "valuation premium" that can be given to those who's deemed as quality management in the context of local market. PMETAL has that prestige. Why not PMBTECH?

4) The Institutions are not yet in the game.
Looking at fund flows to PMBTECH, as well as reading PMETAL reports, the "smart" money is not yet in the know. Once they caught a glimpse (I suspect could be from Q4 or Q1 results) of PMBTECH from associate profit column in $PMETAL / 8869 (PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD), as well as the reduction of earnings mu

The latest PMB net profit margin = 13%. Margin is expected to increase due to sky high silicon price in the 4th quarter

- China prices remains at USD3000 levels per MT
- US prices moved abit more to at all time high at USD4.01 per pound or USD 8840 levels per MT
- Europe prices in slow downtrend but consolidating at USD4300 levels per MT
- India prices (China silicon metal in India ports), like European prices in slow downtrend but consolidating at USD3.9 per kg or USD3900 levels per MT

A very simple average from 4 main global prices is USD5000

USD 5000 x 72,000/4 x RM 4.2 x 15% net profit margin = at least RM 56m net profit for quarter ended 31 Dec 2021

If 20% net profit margin = RM 75.6 million

“My main concern is: What will be the normalised Silicon ASP when the supply demand dynamics eventually normalizes?”

Your question suggests the current environment is abnormal. Whereas I think existing supply and demand is here to stay – reasons I’ve explained previously, so I’m incline to think that current environment is already normal.

Meanwhile your concern on the Silicon price is valid. Hence my follow up research been surrounding on structural factors that could possibly tilt the pricing balance.

You have correctly pointed out the restriction free in glove capacity expansion. That’s the key. Moreover, glove’s parabolic demand surge is unsustainable. Energy reform on a global scale is not seasonal and it comes with a fairly long gestation period.

In the law of business/economics, higher price/margin would naturally encourage competition. Silicon is no exception. Except this time around, China has purportedly slow down energy intensive industries' capacity expansion.

China has and will continue to tighten the grip on new setups for energy intensive industries. Only plants with favorable energy mix/control/emission gets approval to expand. There are news article saying certain local council only approves new capacity if only it comes with its own clean energy power plant. Imagine the kind of capital one needs to do that, and would return justify? China energy costs for industries have been up for around 30%

China’s flexi-rate energy cost structure is not a temporary adjustment. Old and/or inefficient capacities will retire eventually further eliminates supply. Additionally, the US silicon import ban helps tame China export pressure and temptation to setup more Silicon plants.

Why the supply restriction, you may wonder. I think when one is poor, one couldn’t care less if a job is dirty. But when one possesses the option to choose (i.e. risen from poverty), it is only natural to demand for a healthier/cleaner environment. Why are there increasingly more Chinese-own paper mills setup in Malaysia? Remember the plastic waste containers docked in Malaysia ports?

I have no idea how US intends to address the immediate lack of Silicon supply until their local capacity sprouts up – eventually it will, incentivized by the current US$8K price.

But then, it will take a while for capacity to accumulate and reverse the current dynamic…

https://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/28/cramers-10-point-growth-stock-checklist.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/jim-cramer-says-the-stock-market-is-getting-closer-to-forming-a-bottom.html

Bought Harta @ RM 5.25 (God give fair price) and sold all (cut loss) QES at 56sen. Mkt is bad and has to be defensive.

Despite very bad market worldwide, my small cap growth stock portfolio still gains about 5% thanks to the right picks of Dnex, Armada, PMB tech and some timely profit takings.

Should i take profit on the balance of Armada (sold 50% earlier to take profit?



A good article to think...

U.S. Stocks Historically Deliver Strong Gains in Fed Hike Cycles

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stocks-historically-deliver-strong-140000367.html

Despite very bad market worldwide, my small cap growth stock portfolio still gains about 5% thanks to the right picks of Dnex, Armada, PMB tech and some timely profit takings.

Should i take profit on the balance of Armada (sold 50% earlier to take profit?

after dropping 25% from RM 50 to 37.50, MPI stock price looks attractive...

Switched Hiaptek to Ann Joo. Ann Joo looks better.

Reasons:
1. Ann Joo has direct control over upstream steel making
2. Hiaptek owned less than 30% in Eastern Steel after recent dilution. Profit mere accounting profit unless ES pays dividend which is unlikely in next few years.
3. Fund managers favour Ann Joo more than Hiaptek. Dillution is a concern for Hiaptek as the company does not seem to have control in ES

Sold balance MPI at RM 40.72 for small profit to increase the cash position. To buy back when US mkt stablise...

Bought some Airport as it is bottom and safer bet...

took profit on Dnex at 91sen. In this kind of mkt, sometimes will have to lock in profit first.

To buy back latter...

agreed...

sold 50% shares of MPI bought just now at 42.80-4.94 to take some profit. Will hold balance and will buy if drops below RM 40 again.

I am still bullish on MPI . I believe it is a major correction but not game over yet. MPI has corrected over 20% from RM 50 to today's morning price about RM 40.

Thank you Sifu OTB.

It is difficult to make money in year 2022 and looks can like only buy low sell high.
In international mkt, we have concern in inflation and US rate. In local mkt, we have political uncertainties and election is coming.

Cash is king...

pmb is holding the price very well...while other tech stocks dropped badly

Goreng so-called high tech stocks which are very overvalued with PE over 50, better avoid at all costs

Greatec
UMC
Penta
Unisem
Vitrox
KESM
Kobay
Genetec


and many others

As for MPI... under my watch list, haha..

Semicon parts for EV should have very long growth going forward, at least next 10 years while semicon for PC may flat or drop marginally...

MPI’s venture into silicon carbide (SiC) power modules in 2020 offers promising prospects given the increasing popularity among electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers.

Silicon Carbide (SiC) is an innovative technology that will replace silicon in many applications. The idea of using SiC for electric vehicles (EVs) was born when efforts were made to increase the efficiency and range of such vehicles, while reducing the weight and cost of the entire vehicle and thus increasing the power density of control electronics.

Power electronics for EVs can effectively be enhanced with Silicon carbide solutions that meet design parameters and make an essential contribution to system performance and long-term reliability.

Comparing Intel's PE Of 10 with NVIDIA's PE 80+ of may not be appropriate....

Likewise, compare Alibaba and Amazon may not be apple to apple comparison as well even there are e-commerce giant...

Anyway i am not expert in tech and hope to find out more...

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AmInvestResearch/2021-11-29-story-h1594704443-Malaysian_Pacific_Industries_Bright_prospects_ahead.jsp

After last few days drop of about 20%, PE becomes 27.

Are they doing the same even though they are OSAT. MPI focused more on automotive EV, and 5G. Now still facing shortages esp automotive parts.

I am looking to buy cheap MPI back this round of selling. I have some MPI but taken profit end of 2021.




Extract from Ambank Report

We raise our FY22, FY23 and FY24 core profit forecasts by 20%, 34% and 32% to RM366.6mil, RM459.6mil and RM509.0mil respectively. This is to account for brighter automotive and industrial outlook, which is poised to benefit MPI due to its strategic position underpinned by its power products investments, such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN).


End-user segment update: MPI’s revenue growth largely came from the automotive and industrial segments, which expanded 15% and 12% QoQ respectively, contributing 37% and 31% of its revenue. The consumer & communication segment’s growth remained flattish, while growth for the PC & notebook segment declined 5% QoQ.


Capital expansion progress: MPI continues to invest in identified technology drivers for growth such as 5G, SiC, GaN, electrification, sensors and safety for the automotive sector. In Sep 2021, the group completed its 2nd phase of level 2 expansion for Carsem Suzhou, adding 4,400 sq metres to the plant. The group is also scouting for new land in China, with aim of setting up another facility to cater for growth in SiC-related products.

haha agreed.