As investor of Jaks, you must understand that you buy jaks as a company which includes loss making property business, loss making construction business, poor sub standard management.... not just power plant.

Why not? You buy 1000 shares, you made should make over RM 1000. Now up RM 1.26 from RM 35.10 yesterday close. Yesterday most of the time was traded below RM 35 in the afternoon session. I managed to get at RM 34.90

I have some respect to Aaron Tan, at least he congratulates all making money. And this forum should allow difference views as long as no personal attack or simply create fear.

Current quarter EPS is 51.44 sen, what a fantastic result

Beyond the current uncertainties, irreversible global megatrends of a more sustainable and greener future augurs well for the metallic silicon industry as it is an essential raw material in the value chain of the production of electric vehicles, solar panels and other resource and energy saving end products.

Don't know what shares Aaron bought? Only metal, O&G and Palm oils are doing well...

fantastic... all negative news like war also cannot bring down the price of PMB Tech

Btw, Russia is the world second largest producer of silicon

Why fight in this forum....

Today should be a good day for those with right strategy.

haha, got chance to make Charles famous chicken rice short term...

Plus, PE of 20 is not expensive

Pmetal results will be announced friday. PMB Tech should also be announced on the same date...

loan interest reduced by over RM 10m per quarter due to improving cash flow every quarter.

Results should improve every quarter unless there is one off impairment that we don't know...

UOB Reseach

Mining to lead the earnings growth.

MSC’s mine managed to increase its average daily mining output to 11mt/day (from 8mt/day) in 2021 as it explored new deposits and utilised new technology. MSC will continue to boost its mining output to 12mt/day by 2022. In addition, MSC commenced mining activities at Sungai Lembing, Pahang last year with minimal average production of 100-200kg/day. In the next 1-2 years, the mine is expected to gradually produce over 1,000mt/year. MSC is also in the midst of finalising some potential JVs to expand its mining activities in the area surrounding RHT, which will further increase its mining output. However, since mining exploration is a time-consuming activity, we expect the earnings contribution will only be generated in the next 4-5 years.


• Margins improvement from the new smelting plant.

Smelting’s margin improved qoq from around 4% to 7% in 4Q21, partly due to utilisation of the new plant. The eco-friendly plant at Pulau Indah is now fully operational as evidenced by our recent ground checks. It boasts production costs that are at least 20% lower than the old ones in Penang as it has better efficiency via its single-stage smelting (vs multistage smelting process used
previously). The plant also has a 50% higher production capacity (60,000mt) while requiring >40% less manpower. MSC has also commenced the smelting of about 7,258mt tin intermediates at its Butterworth smelter in 3Q21, which will take about two years to complete. This will help to gradually boost its smelting earnings going forward.

• Prolonged rally in tin prices to boost earnings in 2022. As of 18 Feb 22, tin prices
continue to surge to new highs (over 100% yoy) to US$44,150/mt. In China, the temporary
shutdown of some smelters for maintenance and the disruption of tin ore imports from
Myanmar further disrupted China’s refined tin output. In Indonesia, there have been delays
to private smelter export licenses by the government that fueled speculation and pushed
prices higher. Although global production in 2021 improved 11% yoy to 378,400mt, tin deficit
is still expected to rise 24% yoy in 2022. As such, while prices may ease gradually in 2022
as supply improves, we believe prices will remain higher than the historical average of
around US$18,000/mt. The spike in production cost due to inflationary pressure and power
crisis amid the decarbonisation agenda will lend further strength to tin prices.


EARNINGS REVISION/RISK

• Raise 2022-23 net profit forecasts. We raise our 2022-23 net profit forecasts by 21% and
15% to reflect better margins and we increase our tin price assumptions from US$34,000
and US$30,000 to US$36,000 and US$32,000 per mt respectively, reflecting the prolonged
rally in tin prices. We also introduced our 2024 forecast with price assumption of
US$30,000/mt. Based on our sensitivity analysis, every US$2,000/mt rise in our tin price
assumptions would boost earnings by about 12% a year.


VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION

• Downgrade to HOLD despite higher target price of RM4.45, as share price rally almost
reflected the intrinsic value. Our target price implies 10x 2022F PE (five-year mean PE). If tin
prices remain at the current high of US$44,000/mt in 2022, it could result in a 10% upside to
our target price at RM4.89 (8x 2022F PE). Our blue-sky earnings suggest a potentially
higher target price of RM5.37 (8x 2022F PE), -1SD to its five-year PE mean.

Russia is the second largest producer of silicon.

PMB Tech is a good hedge against war and inflation...

Bought some MSC as hedge against inflation and war... like its recent quarterly results also

Now portpolio have palm oil and metal namely PMB Tech and MSC as hedge against inflation.

Yes, thumbs up to Charles...

alamak uncle compares apple with orange again...

this company is a low tech metal stamping company with a lot of mkt players, nothing special...

A lot of people kena con....

Just my guess only....

Private placement is underway, likely 90sen to RM 1. Big boys need to sell and should have done the sale between RM 1.15 to RM 1.30 to subscribe for private placements...

from 70sen++ till RM 1.30, good enough for operators. I was here when it was 70sen+.

Remember don't chase high and don't catch the falling knife....

look like game over?

Russia is the second-largest producer of silicon in the world, with its production estimated at 580 thousand metric tons in 2021. The total global silicon production in 2021 amounted to an estimated 8.5 million metric tons.

Russia Ukraine tension may cause silicon price to increase further as well. This tension has been priced in as PMB Tech has good run lately.

Let see the quarterly result which may not be priced fully in yet...

That is correct based on my channel check as i have highlighted about 6 months ago.

The best is ALP is do nothing and earn his salary every year. Only profitable venture is Jaks power plant....

.............................

Windy1974 Jaks is so quiet now. So i decide to contribute something but is detrimental to JAKS and many in solar.
Petronas is going green so they are looking for build and owned solar vendors. Naturally, i have been seeking advise from solar materials suppliers to look at the feasibility. After my discussion with them, i decided not to. Below are summary since i don't feel like a story today.
1. Cost per kw in the region of 0.22 sen +- . So if this is true, all LSS4 gonna lose money. According to supplier, only LSS1 operational now with price then more than 0.30+. Means JAKS after Vietnam, everything else still negative. As i said before, best ALP can do is to do nothing and earn his salary every year.
2. With the costing, not only any LSS2/3/4 investments bad ideas, solar contractors too. I heard margin is less than 10%. So, be very cautious if a contractor showing more than 10% margin!!
Hence, going forward, you would likely only see build and owned model. It's become a capital intensive and low return industry. Not for me

Pmetal mkt cap is around RM 56b. About 7 years ago, its mkt cap is about the same as PMB Tech current mkt cap.

Let see how far PMB Tech can go....

RHB analyst report give projected Profit of PMB Tech around RM 800m when the project profit of Pmetal (PMB Tech is an associate of Pmetal) few months ago.

By using RM 800m profit (forward profit), it will give PMB Tech mkt cap RM 8b based on PE of 10. Pmetal used to have PE of 20 to 30.

about time to take profit on balance shares of Dnex as right issue or private placement is coming for its expansion plan...

i have been thinking when to sell my last batch of DNEX every day...

Right issue or private placement is coming. They need to goreng up now...

after Genetec, Sam, MPI etc, now superstocks are Dnex and PMB Tech...

Those still not onboard, it seems too late to chase as risk is getting higher and have little margin of safety.

What is the next superstock?

CGS-CIMB starts coverage on Dagang NeXchange, target price RM1.60

Surin Murugiah

theedgemarkets.com

February 16, 2022 08:10 am +08

CGS-CIMB starts coverage on Dagang NeXchange, target price RM1.60
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 16): CGS-CIMB Research has initiated coverage on Dagang NeXchange Bhd (DNeX) at RM1.13 with an “Add” rating and target price of RM1.60.

In a note Wednesday (Feb 16), the research house said DNeX is well positioned to benefit from SilTerra’s turnaround, underpinned by on-going semi chips shortages and structural shift towards More-than-Moore (MtM) devices.

The research house said it is projecting SilTerra to invest over RM900 million capex in FY22-24F.

“The group plans to increase its mask layer (ML) capacity by 20% to 10m ML/annum by CY23F.

“We expect SilTerra to secure two new long term agreements (LTAs) in 1HCY22F that will take up 80% of its capacity,”it said.

CGS-CIMB projects DNeX to post a 3-year core EPS CAGR of 453% (FY21-24F) driven by 1) higher wafers ASP, 2) higher wafers production volume on the back of new capacity expansion, 3) higher average crude oil prices for Ping Petroleum Limited (Ping), and 4) higher production volume at Ping on the back of its new capex programme.

“DNeX also enjoys a lower effective tax rate given that SilTerra has over RM12 billion as of Jul-21 in unrecognised deferred tax assets that could be offset against its future profits.

“Note that we have yet to account for: 1) contributions from emerging technology platforms like silicon photonics that command premium ASP, and 2) commercialisation of Ping’s Avalon oilfield,” it said.

alamak compared apple with orange...

My DNEX gained over 38% in just a month. Really cannot believe it...

DNEX gained 38% in just a month. Really cannot believe it

i have been selling some since RM 17 to 19.60 to lock in profit but still hold big amount of PMB. Will consider to add if time is right. This Pmetal sister company is on its way to RM 10b mkt cap in next 3 years. Pmetal mkt cap is RM 55b. About six years ago ie mid 2016, its mkt cap is RM 4.8b. PMB Tech current mkt cap is around RM 3.9b

plantation net profit will be doubled... same as its electronic business net profit

Scope should have half palm oil and half electronic components manufacturer, it should run like Dnex which also has half semiconductor(electronic) and half oil...

Bought some Bplant, one of the most undervalued plantation stocks.

Continued to take some profit on PMB Tech. Foreign funds still favour PMetal and PMB Tech. My contact said they have been accumulating PMB Tech, one of the best green silicon producers in term of costs

Funds sold tech stocks and is buying metal and O&G stocks. Oil include palm oil...

i was told foreign investors have been net buyers of PMB Tech over last few months whereas retail investors are net sellers.

I think this super trend of silicon and aluminum for green producers is not over yet

Portpolio gain 17.8% this year. It is time to take some profit to protect capital first. Sold all Airport as achieve target.

Bought small qtt of Toyoven as bet against its power plant.

Hate to cut loss but some time has to face reality. Sold some Scope during rebound. Now portpolio has over 36% cash..

Took some profit on Dnex and PMB Tech(small qtt) again...

Bought some Harta again...

All time high again...TA master will say no more barrier, the sky is the limit.

All investors make money... Investors who hold the shares for some time make the most...

All time high again today..

Congrate to all PMB Tech holders despite some noises

Sold small qtt of PMB at RM 16.48 to lock in profit.
PMB is still the largest holding in my small cap portpolio

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/04/tsmc-intel-ramp-up-spending-as-semiconductor-demand-booms.html


Tech will not be over( just correction is not over yet, in my view), as tech will always be relevant in our day to day life from computers and hp we used to logistics, communication, agricultural, manufacturing, EV etc. i still maintain Scope.

Just my view...tech correction of local and US will only be over when fed started to increase the rate. I will start invest in more tech stocks when time is right. I have big position in HS Tech etf which i bought aggressively after it drops over 40%...

Investment is 50% emotions, 40% research, 10% luck

hot money gets out from tech and goes to O&G and metal stocks....

Took profit on MPI yesterday. Will relook it after nasdaq selloff is over. Likely after fed starts to increase interest rate. Also took profit on Harta as the strategy is to buy low and sell high for glove stock.

PMB is doing extremely well lately. Funds are moving out from tech to O&G and Metal. Bought back some Armada from the proceed of MPI as earlier batch was sold too early despite good profit

PMB stock price is holding very well despite this tech crash which sees many tech stocks dropped from 20%-50%.

PMB Tech ...some good writeup from other forum

1) Access to cheap and clean source of power / energy.
- The main cost component in producing silicon metal is not quartz, it's energy / power. Samalaju, SESCO, Bakun dam provides clean source of energy (unlike China based peers having energy from coal plants) at competitive price, making PMBTECH one of the lowest cost quartile producer of silicon.

2) China was already the market leader.
- PMBTECH is a newcomer who's slowly taking market share. Unlike glovemakers - who came from position of market leadership losing market share due to change of supply dynamics from China, China is already the incumbent with 70% of market share in global silicon production. US or Europe players may come in, but again - coming back to point number (1), do they have access to ample clean energy in the short / medium term?

3) Management calibre.
- There's a certain "valuation premium" that can be given to those who's deemed as quality management in the context of local market. PMETAL has that prestige. Why not PMBTECH?

4) The Institutions are not yet in the game.
Looking at fund flows to PMBTECH, as well as reading PMETAL reports, the "smart" money is not yet in the know. Once they caught a glimpse (I suspect could be from Q4 or Q1 results) of PMBTECH from associate profit column in $PMETAL / 8869 (PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD), as well as the reduction of earnings mu

The latest PMB net profit margin = 13%. Margin is expected to increase due to sky high silicon price in the 4th quarter

- China prices remains at USD3000 levels per MT
- US prices moved abit more to at all time high at USD4.01 per pound or USD 8840 levels per MT
- Europe prices in slow downtrend but consolidating at USD4300 levels per MT
- India prices (China silicon metal in India ports), like European prices in slow downtrend but consolidating at USD3.9 per kg or USD3900 levels per MT

A very simple average from 4 main global prices is USD5000

USD 5000 x 72,000/4 x RM 4.2 x 15% net profit margin = at least RM 56m net profit for quarter ended 31 Dec 2021

If 20% net profit margin = RM 75.6 million

“My main concern is: What will be the normalised Silicon ASP when the supply demand dynamics eventually normalizes?”

Your question suggests the current environment is abnormal. Whereas I think existing supply and demand is here to stay – reasons I’ve explained previously, so I’m incline to think that current environment is already normal.

Meanwhile your concern on the Silicon price is valid. Hence my follow up research been surrounding on structural factors that could possibly tilt the pricing balance.

You have correctly pointed out the restriction free in glove capacity expansion. That’s the key. Moreover, glove’s parabolic demand surge is unsustainable. Energy reform on a global scale is not seasonal and it comes with a fairly long gestation period.

In the law of business/economics, higher price/margin would naturally encourage competition. Silicon is no exception. Except this time around, China has purportedly slow down energy intensive industries' capacity expansion.

China has and will continue to tighten the grip on new setups for energy intensive industries. Only plants with favorable energy mix/control/emission gets approval to expand. There are news article saying certain local council only approves new capacity if only it comes with its own clean energy power plant. Imagine the kind of capital one needs to do that, and would return justify? China energy costs for industries have been up for around 30%

China’s flexi-rate energy cost structure is not a temporary adjustment. Old and/or inefficient capacities will retire eventually further eliminates supply. Additionally, the US silicon import ban helps tame China export pressure and temptation to setup more Silicon plants.

Why the supply restriction, you may wonder. I think when one is poor, one couldn’t care less if a job is dirty. But when one possesses the option to choose (i.e. risen from poverty), it is only natural to demand for a healthier/cleaner environment. Why are there increasingly more Chinese-own paper mills setup in Malaysia? Remember the plastic waste containers docked in Malaysia ports?

I have no idea how US intends to address the immediate lack of Silicon supply until their local capacity sprouts up – eventually it will, incentivized by the current US$8K price.

But then, it will take a while for capacity to accumulate and reverse the current dynamic…

https://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/28/cramers-10-point-growth-stock-checklist.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/jim-cramer-says-the-stock-market-is-getting-closer-to-forming-a-bottom.html