2015 Q4 cogs mistake?

Mung hong, while i believe the impact of warrant dilution in future will be mitigated by more earning in future. But it is the safest way to do calculation by include dilution since earning is very unpredictable. For my case, I tends to use non diluted figures to maintain the consistancy. Reason being: if i use the dilution now, then i should also need to dilute previous earning to generate MEANINGFUL comparison especially when warrant still not exercise. This involve a lot of works. Thats my lazy part to do so..:-)

sklyte, i tried to rule out the whole forex gain and the compensation to derive the core profit. No intention to know how to share share the forex gain. :-) .

25,048 is reported profit before MI.

i analyse based on consolidated account. And did i recognized all exchange gains as MI portion? Sorry, please provide guide.

young man, this is my calculation ('000):

25,048 (reported profit) - 6,678 (exchange gain) - 2,096 (compensation received) = 16,274 (PAT) - 6,509 (minority interest) = 9,765

9,765/ 321,571 (outstanding shares) = 3.04 sen

I don't know if i got simply olease or not. You try calculate and see


Posted by noobnnew > May 20, 2016 09:52 AM | Report Abuse

dun simply olease, the EPS already exclude non controlling interest. 1.57mil divide by number of share outstanding.

my calculation after minority interest, core EPS only at 3.2 sen.

need to also factor in the refund as well as upcoming dilution. my opinion.

core earning deteriorated. have to hold longer.

Hi all, please pardon me and don't scold me for sharing my opinion as below sharing is meant to caution you rather then blocking you to make money/ make lesser money / make loss.

If my facts are correct, then i may have save you from making more losses by averaging down. Or FA investors should be able to see the opportunities and redo all your calculation.

1) Taann has 45% of revenue derived from palm oil. The substantial 30% drop may impact earning a lot. You must understand, fix cost is always there. A significant change in input (revenue) will drive down earning a lot. They don't move in same rate.

2) log production didnt change much. That may explain why WTK and the rest are relatively stable.

3) for Q4 2015, there is a reversal of Rm 13.5 million from impairment. This figure may not repeat again.

4) for Q2 15, Q3 15 & Q4 15, they have forex gain of RM 2.5 mil , RM 9.1 mil & RM 4.4 mil respectively. If they practice good hedging, such gain may not appeared. For Q 16, RM appreciated 10%, if they still don't do good hedging, the result could be reverse as they have substantial "positive" exposure of USD, JPY and AUD.

5) industry love this Q vs last year same Q. But share market now is this Q vs immediate preceeding Q. i believe this is another fact.

Please do not repeat my failure while on the way to great profit.

Just for sharing:

log: q1 16 = 101,959 ( - 2.8%)
ffb: q1 16 = 122,365 ( - 30%)
cpo: q1 16 = 33,075 ( - 32%)
pk: q1 16 = 6,775 ( - 32%)

-------------------------------------
log: q4 15 = 104,898
ffb: q4 15 = 174,939
cpo: q4 15 = 48,372
pk: q4 15 = 10,034

RM appreciation should help to save more cost. But tin price also appreciated. Hard to predict the net impact. Hopeful for a positive impact.

Certainly learned a great deal of useful knowlwdge from your write up. Big thank you.

I not only need to take more investment course to upgrade my knowledge. I also need to take more english courses...

kakashit, i love to know too if this is my wishful wish. Please share more numbers so that i can also trace it.

Leefongyong, as i have indicated in the article, i hope someone can me help to clarify above elimination with the management too during agm. As for 2014, restructuring was going on. And its involve twph's ultimate holding company. Hope you can help traced back all the history. Thank you

Littlelolita got valid point. I should not put "sunset" business. Thanks for pointing out.

moneySifu, as far as i know registered IBS players include ajiya, annjoo, TRC, OKA, chin hin, gbgaqrs. I think chin hin also showing activity on precast IBS for building.

Mr. M, thank you for the info. Cheers,

From past 3 years company announcement, Gkent seem focusing on LRT extension work, and hospital Kuala Lipis (57 mil). No major engineering contracts were acquired. Perhaps they did, just that they did not make announcement for smaller engineering contract below certain value. It gives me the impression that they seriously want to focus on big project like LRT only. I hope they go all out and source more contract aggressively.

Ezra buddy, i have put a remark that Gkent may source more contract in future towards the end of the article. The management certainly is hard working. In fact, i hope they can bid for the LRT3 contract work itself instead of becoming just PDP. I'm not very sure about this. I think they will have better margin if becoming a contractor, rather then hold on to the 6% fee as PDP. Cheers

2012 LRT extension work, Gkent acted as contractor. For LRT3, Gkent is PDP.

Icon8888, like to ask your opinion, being a Project Delivery Partner for LRT3, is Gkent allowed to bid for own contract? Thanks

99kandar, stay cool buddy. If i don't GUESS, i'm already insider. And i will goreng you kau kau till you "hangus".
Just kidding :-)

I am not sour grape, i have better exposure in other construction stocks. I just don't want be "hangus".

I'm just small tiny investor trying to avoid all pit fall.

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99kandar if you write up something good or bad of a company... don't guess.. pun in the right and true!! what a GUESSING write up??? Siok sendiri ka...
or because you are sore grape//??? OOOOoooooo
30/03/2016 07:09

Muscle, you are among the "genius" in i3. I believe you have better judgement than me. You are absolutely right. Geshen seriously fail me due to one of my misjudgment. Therefore, i become extremely careful when analyzing a company.
Please skip my article as it is purely based on my own assumption. Also bear in mind, a bad can turn good. (I'm referring to Geshen).Equally, a good can turn bad. I have seen too many such cases. Only time will tell. Therefore, i advise you to stay sane when investing.

Cheers!
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muscle Realy poor judgement... Pls dun make any more anlysis again... If u recomending buy on geshen n tienwah, tis shows how poor ur analysis.. Pla dun make urself like a fool
30/03/2016 05:50

Hi buddyinvest, I believe you didn't finish reading the whole article. I did mentioned that Gkent may acquire more projects in the future."

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buddyinvest Yi-stock, I appreciate your efforts. But if u apply your theory ( there will be no new contracts or new jobs for the next 5 years) for all other construction stocks, then I'm afraid that there is no stock we can buy. Be realistic lah. If they can secure 4.5bil job, they are no ordinary player.
30/03/2016 07:34


buddyinvest Yi-stock, I almost fainted when I read the above. You are so bullish on Geshen & Tienwah, but not so on Gkent.

For Gkent. It will surely secure other projects from time to time. Apa lah Yi-stock? If your assumption is correct, then Gkent's business development managers no need to find other jobs in the next five years, just shake balls in office.
30/03/2016 04:10

http://yistock2016.blogspot.my/2016/03/gkent-really-gem.html

timing, frankly, please expect 4th amendment. I believe it will be today after 5:00 pm.

The whole "CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITY" gone MISSING....我真是五体投地。。。。。

Anyway, i'm expecting no changes to the overall cash flow statement.

Cheers!
　
timing yistock, anymore question?
28/03/2016 22:08

Based on newly amended financial report released around 5:20pm, it seems like all question marks has been "answered".

I'm seeking expert help, i did not say got fraud.


Posted by speakup > Mar 26, 2016 10:23 PM | Report Abuse

if u suspect comcorp do fraud accounting, please report to SC and Bursa.
otherwise, just shut up.

I'm timid, certainly not jealous.


Posted by Koon Bee > Mar 26, 2016 09:24 PM | Report Abuse

Yistock not manage to buy and earn from comcorp...so jealous and write an article to bad mouth on comcorp...low class

There is a risk which i think need to pay attention on: Impairment of machinery and layoff expenses. The impact can only be estimated when 2015 annual report is out/ be seen when my speculation on "centralizing" take place.

Based on news flow on the land price at RM 500 - RM 550 psf, that piece of 140k sf land could be worth RM 70 mil to RM 77.2 mil. If you check through the 2014 annual report of carry value for both at total RM 26.6 mil, that will translate into RM 50 million profit or RM 0.52 per share cash profit, should the management decided to sell the piece of land. The same selling price can be used to pay dividend/ for expansion / for pay off all the debt current stood at about RM 70++ million.

buddyinvest, yes i still keeping Tien Wah

buddyinvest Yi-stock, are u still keeping tienwah?
18/03/2016 23:02

ha ha

I wish i am that rich.

confuse, you always confused.. ha ha.. I need sometime to write my kopi-o research.
Cheers
http://yistock2016.blogspot.my/2016/03/tien-wah-centralising-operation-to.html

Aiyo...super good news leh :-)

leefongyong, follow this way to examine tien wah, you may have same view as mine. http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/thongguan/92648.jsp

Check on net exposure, perhaps can find the clue there

leefongyong,
(1) in the annoucement, you must not neglect the proposal is to repay "PART" of the loan which give rise to the saving of 600k per year. What i presented is the "LIKELY SCENARIO" of they will repay all the loan and save 600k per quarter. You seem misunderstood my intention.
(2) Tien Wah will benefit from STRONG RINGGIT. i will explain later to proof it. I have already establish the trial and need to proof it only when the next Q report out to validate it.
(3) you are right if based on your 0.40 eps per year while i'm using 0.56 eps. You may also give 0.20 eps and do all the calculation again to establish another possibility of dilution and DY.

cephasyu, all possible answer people can think off. Anyway, my aim is to tell: FA really works. BTW, i love your article.

invest1188, i had bigger position in warrant.

sharktank, if i'm as good as buffett in FA, i will write annual letter to shareholders. I'm still practicing my FA. Thank you for your advice.

duit, kam sia :-)

JTYeo, i just done a calculation. I have 45 articles now and if not mistaken, i only have most recent few, probably 4 or 5 that included forex in my articles to explain on very specific/ particular issue. Didnt know that 5/ 45 = most.

You are 50% right that "information that easily available doesn't mean they are the most important". What i will further add on is that, it is already so lacking of disclosure info in bursa listed company, that easily available info must also be treated as VERY important. Have you heard of the story 一个都不能少?

In fact, i also felt that i not need bring in a lot of statistic which i have in excel spread sheet. Bursadummy and Icon8888 has already done in very detail and tremendous way.

So far, i'm pretty comfortable with my return, not great, just enough to fund my retirement.

:-) Cheers!

GODinvest, i'm not god. I learned from my sifu, buy with margin of safety (MOS). I will try to buy as low price as possible. Anyway, It is pain to see profit shrink. But, i dont give up so easily.

JT Yeo, i actually answered your question before. But you seem neglected it. I didnt know that i only focus on forex gain or disposal only. If so, i will not overlook this item in Geshen.

I'm small investor.. not as "savvy" as you with all the big numbers. I'm still learning.

It is also my usual practice, I don’t 舍近求远。 外国月亮不比本地圆， i try to think from this perspeptive. Here in KL, i perhaps can go out with ICON8888 one day to see see the ABLE FOOD factory if still around or not.

Icon8888, thank you for defending me. Very much appreciated.

As for the china 2 child policy, i'm looking from the perspective of Contract Manufacturing. Everybody on earth know that johotin's current brand is targeting on the lower income group. However, what i hope to see is that after they fully expand and operating the new F&B plant, they will produce FOR big brand(s).

It is unwise to see a manufacturer born business man to become a marketeer trying to market own product. A manufacturer will always think of to produce, in this case, to produce for other people too.

From latest Q report " For the F&B segment, revenue increased by RM102.69 million from RM228.08 million to RM330.77 million due to higher sales. Profit before tax increased by RM8.95 million from RM8.49 million to RM17.44 million mainly due to higher sales in the current year".

The capacity expansion is real and proven with better result. From the report, it seems that it is still not fully expand.

This is how i see johotin.

Hissyu2, i think our understanding are the same from what you trying explain. :-)