What about this?

1) trump aims to double the infra expenditure and therefore economy- USA is going to experience super bull economy. Dow jone will be super bull then.
2) because of super bull economy, GDP is expected to be bull..so does inflation. Then due to much higher wages + cost of living + higher product prices + higher inflation, FED is forced to increase the rate much faster. USD will be super bull then. RM will be super weak (RM5.00 vs USD 1??) which will propel higher malaysia export.
3) Because of superbull, the demand for products ranging from furniture to electronic item to anything else in the world will therefore increase.

4) expecting american to go back to industrial age is going backward, who want to be carpenter. If i'm a businessman in USA, i will tell my china supplier to ship the goods to vietnam then make a round to USA. Just example.

I think:

The biggest world economy engine is running again. Enjoy the super bull run!

Layoff expenses finally registered. Next to wait for impairment of machinery, if any.


Posted by YiStock > Mar 19, 2016 08:57 AM | Report Abuse X

There is a risk which i think need to pay attention on: Impairment of machinery and layoff expenses. The impact can only be estimated when 2015 annual report is out/ be seen when my speculation on "centralizing" take place.

The ultimate looser will be those at the bottom of FOOD CHAIN--> consumer.

The stall buy 30% higher price of milk.. and trust me, they will likely increase the price by 30% even though the raw mat price per cup increase is maybe only 3%

Q1 2016 Sugar spike 9%, Q2 2016 sugar spike 28% from 16 cent USD/Lb to 21 cents USD/LB. But in Q3 2016, the price is quite stable at around 21 cents. Based on reported Q1 & Q2 result, the result seems better and better...will be interesting to see if cost-past-through will give better margin or not. Too bad we do not know the biz volume of evaporated milk vs condensed milk.

I also have one interesting finding (pending verification). As Canone's 32.9% stake in Kian Joo is registered as "Investment in Associate" under NON CURRENT ASSET, therefore, the cash pile of 78 mil currently carrying in Canone should not includes the CASH currently carrying carried in Kian Joo's account.

When i check back Kian joo account,
1) Receivable + inventory = 706 mil
2) Payable + loan = 514 mil

So by theory, the cash flow itself is enough to run the biz.

But, Kian Joo still have cash pile worth RM 176 mil. The cash pile is built over the past few years (as part of the chips of negotiation) when Aspire insight want to take over KianJoo at RM 3.30

So,Canone 32.9% = 57 mil. I treat it as FD Canone put with kianjoo.

If Canone really need money, then they have RM 57 mil as back-up. Maybe as loan from subsidiary..i'm not sure.

So, i think Canone actually very cash rich.

Andyhard,

1) I think F&B Nutritions does not do milk powder. I hope they will consider to venture into this. Since the foot print already in North ASEAN, milk powder should make good money too with reasonable premium. The whole of ASEAN population is not small too.

2) Based on 2015 report, Canone has net exposure of about RM 10 mil worth of USD, and mainly from receivable vs payable..not really on loan. Year 2014 yes. Therefore, weakening of ringgit should benefit them. However, net exposure is not guarantee consistent year over year.

The forex risk come mainly from 32.9% subsidiary Kian Joo. I think the impact is calculated within Kian Joo accounting. The net net profit will then segreated to Canone.

So far Averagely RM 5 mil interest paid per quarter by Canone.

3) Since Kianjoo is the leader in can manufacturing, i think they have volume to play the margin.

4) The factory in Myammar do both can and carton. Expect start running in 2017. The large USD cash pile is in the account for the expansion plan. That's make Kian joo vulnerable to forex fluctuation. Hope the nightmare end in 2016 (balance quarter seem ringgit not doing well).

Above some of my tracking.

Wkitwing, everprosper has the expertise and fully automated machine. With such a small investment (Around 7 mil??)..bok 的过啦。。after all, everybody have to eat right?

Everprosper fy 2015 has increased it revenue about 50% to 1.5 mil if i remember correctly. Let treat the noodle biz as bonus..who know we strike toto? Cheers

Hi jin hou, the word "instant" i interprete as skipping the process of rubbing the flour. Ready dry noodle packaged nicely for instant cooking..I'm looking at the ready product currently supply by everprosper. However, this pending verification though. I once watch a documentary of instant noodle (real instant noodle), the market is so huge. Again, 1.6 billiom population, 10% gao liao lo :-)..

I see it this way.

Hi jin hou, everprosper produce instant noodle?

Shareinvestor is the best..he already see the future. Powderful..TTB more optimistic..2.50 (RM 10 then split 4) :-)

sted by shareinvestor88 > Oct 27, 2016 08:23 AM | Report Abuse

Sell.... (RM 8 then split 4)....target 2.00

with my english level, long been sack already if so..

ha ha... will try...

I m shallow

Andyhard, Are you referring to below?

(3) ...Canone itself is adding additional dairy line in Q3 2015 and Q4 2015. The expansion plan ate up FCF and also causes the cash pile depleted and total outstanding loan increased. The expansion plan is done.


I have double check all the reports, my mistake, as the additional line (referring to evaporated creamer lines) has been completed in Q2 2015, and "STARTED CONTRIBUTING" in Q3 2015 & Q4 2015. Not completed by Q4 2015.

Referring to Q3 2015 quarter report, the added capacity "from the evaporated creamer lines" has managed to improve the revenue and offset some slowness in Sweetener line. Thanks to the added evaporated creamer capacity.

Q3 2015 negative FCF is mainly due to increased in receivable.
Q4 2015 negative FCF is mainly due to increased in inventory and higher payout.

Let refer below half yearly performance of Dairy division:

2016 1st half: Revenue 303 mil; PBT 36.8
2015 2nd half: Revenue 301 mil; PBT 37.3 (high demand on evaporated creamer)

2015 1st half: Revenue 262 mil; PBT 27.8 (lower demand on sweetener creamer)
2014 2nd half: Revenue 307 mil; PBT 29.4
2014 1st half: Revenue 277 mil; PBT 17.5

From the reported revenue, can see the added capacity has so far proven give better result (2016 1st half & 2015 2nd half), PBT reported at 37 mil vs previous period.

As for the quantum of increase,very subjective ba..

You are very good. I like your useful feedback..Please come back more often.

Appreciate.

Gtronic result seem "leaking" e everytime before q report out. If not mistaken the previous sharp drop also behave the same.

# ronnietan, you have said it yourself: "why provide". Of course it is an event. If not it will not be recorded.

Bluefun, is the ship "become straight" la...:-) ha ha


Posted by bluefun > Oct 23, 2016 06:34 PM | Report Abuse

Buy a high ROIC company, when low EBIT multiple with high EY

When the ship near the bridge,
the bridge will become straight

:)

The latest improved relationship between china & Philippine should help the gaming sector to boom in Philippine.

Please do not follow me. I'm extra patient with the companies i invested in.

Above is just my own forecast. It may or may not be true. I'm more fancy to the business itself then the share price up and down. And i'm pretty sure i only know the biz, the most, 10% only.

So, i'm considered high risk taker.

Riskabsorber,

Above chart is not resin price, it is the "change" of resin price. i.e. up or down.

Point 1 and Point A represented Q2 2016, the gross profit margin has already been squeezed in Q2. That's why the gross profit drop in Q2 2016 even though the revenue registered was higher Q-to-Q and Y-O-Y.

For Q3 2016, i personally anticipated an "expansion" of gross profit margin back to normal or higher as cost past through usually delayed 1 quarter.

The similar has happened in year 2004 quarter 4 if not mistaken.



Posted by riskabsorber > Oct 12, 2016 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

For YiStock, your article is too detailed with so much technical information. Thanks for your effort. Just not really understand that the chart of resin cost with share price. Do you mean that Q3's profit margin will be squeezed ?

I think your price is the beginning value and end value of Q1 to Q2, not average figures. I'm not sure.

Yeah, LLDPE is for stretch film. And the data i used is based on most comment butene based LLDPE.


Posted by chl1989 > Oct 12, 2016 12:56 AM | Report Abuse

if not wrong, Q1 average LLDPE price CFR SEA was about USD1100/mt.
Q2 average about USD1200/mt. Q3 average about USD1150/mt.
FYI, LLDPE is used to produce stretch film.

When there is a supply glut, the spread will be squeezed. This is common in all commodity i believe.


Posted by chl1989 > Oct 12, 2016 12:53 AM | Report Abuse

Ethylene plays a major role in supporting polyethylene price now. Production cost to convert ethylene to polyethylene is about usd300/mt. But the market spread now is only about usd150/mt.

chl1989, resin price never move in tandem with natural gas. It is influence by the natural gas movement. Not sure why you think they move in tandem.

in general, resin is a product from natural gas. Currently there is an supply glut in resin and this supply glut is expected to last for quite a long time in view of many new facility is going on line.

Posted by chl1989 > Oct 12, 2016 12:50 AM | Report Abuse

YiStock, actually it is not entirely true that resin price moves in tandem with natural gas. In fact, we can produce polyethylene resin from both crude oil and natural gas:
1. Oil > naphtha > ethylene > polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE & HDPE)
2. Gas > ethane > ethylene > polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE & HDPE)

Not to mention the non-conventional way of producing resin i.e. Coal to Olefin technology in China.

michael, i strongly believe following Mr Kcchongnz valuation is the most reliable one. Personally, so far, i choose to hold to believe the management TP of 1 billion market cap.

chankp7010, tguan machinery are old and i believe has fully depreciated in value. Therefore, any such disposal should end up with gain. Good example is like Q2 2016

soojinhou,

Trying my luck.

Posted by soojinhou > Oct 11, 2016 01:56 PM | Report Abuse

Steady, u dare to stick your neck out and make a precise forecast. Power to u!

RM 1 subcribed rights share is now worth RM 2. 1:1 ....patiently waiting 1:3

bluefun is the future coldeye in the making

hi chankp7010, i do have 1 or 2 valid "worry" when Q2 result announced. However, the "worry" has been factored into the price correction i believe and i need to wait till Nov to verify it.

It is fair to worry when share price keep coming down and nothing seems go wrong. When things are not clear, the best is go back to fundamental of the company. And, DO NOTHING.

Do not forget, the boss say 20% better revenue expected for 2nd half.


Posted by chankp7010 > Oct 7, 2016 09:33 AM | Report Abuse

May be icon8888, YiStock, Harryt30, KC Chong can enlighten us

Hi Michael Wong, sorry for being very "politely" rude that I don't read Icap's material. I find their speculative timing / advice seriously not worth a penny.

I think very simple rule, you are partner with Tguan to do business, not Icap. You must treat Tguan quarter report and bosses comment seriously. Back to the root of investment.

As for Icap..sigh...i also pity their shareholders.


Posted by michaelwong > Oct 6, 2016 08:06 PM | Report Abuse

Can YiStock shed some light on this counter as Icap has downgrade its current target price to 2.50 which is unreasonable and below valuation . Some other research houses have placed a higher tp of 4 ++ onwards . What about the Q3 results roughly ? Maybe there's some conflict of interests by certain research house to push down the share price to collect cheaply . Thnks !

winning formula: Do nothing. Aero1 is the best.

Probability, no worry, u hv lot of exposure in steel theme, you will be doing fine.

Money, please share the obvious short and long term winner. Thank you

money, cool your head and read again.

Already stated there, 5.61% is the risk i want focus..what you want to focus on 23.8% is reward.

relax money sifu, i focus on risk, you focus on reward, we both kopitiam talk.

Hi Jinhou, steel tubing of all similar kind ?

Ezra bro, i never felt gek sam with gkent as i don't feel my analysis is wrong. In fact my estimation for next 3 years eps not running far from hongleong report. The bank said target price 3.23 in 2018...but gkent now almost near target price but we still in 2016.. I'm happy for u bro...i used gkent to tell readers that if banker want push, all points become in valid.

Next monday mycron may break rm 1.2...cscsteel rm 2.2..choo bee 3.2...if banker want..:-)

Lulu拉， 中 国 内需改革最近还不错

猜罢了。需 要 Mr Koon 的 view。

那 一 头铁 马 ， 意义深远。 多加思量。

Probability-bro, by the way, Cxxxxxx is not CSCsteel

Probaility, i'm fully invested. No "crash" in my dictionery

择"良"师， 交"益"友，听"忠"言，有"己"见，"明"是非，有"胆"識，莫"盲"从，有"耐"心，成功之道也。Sifu kc, 感恩。

non-cash mean no bleeding.

Refer article 3, 4 & 5. Also bluefun articles.

Anything i can help?

Anything i can help?

Up-Down, maybe you want to add in RM 1.50 exercise price x 26.234 mil warrant = RM 39.5 mil / RM 0.21 real hard cash per share into your calculation of Tguan PER

MoneySIFU, you are good!