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能源盤後─供給預測降低 美國鑽探減少 原油收高2.44美元
2015/01/17 05:05 鉅亨網編譯郭照青

原油上漲，創11月以來首度單周上漲。國際能源總署(IEA)調降OPEC以外地區的生產預測，及一份報告顯示美國公司減少生產活動，為市場利多。

紐約原油上漲5.3%。IEA在月報中說，非OPEC原油生產國今年調高產量將低於原先預估，有助原油價格反彈。

美國本周鑽油機運作減少55台至1366台，為九周來第八次減少，並創2013年10月以來低點。

分析師說，IEA報告顯示低油價正讓市場平衡。

紐約2月原油上漲2.44美元，收於每桶48.69美元。1月13日，該合約下跌至44.20美元，創2009年4月以來低點。

3月布倫特原油收高1.74美元至每桶50.01美元。

去年，原油大跌近50%，美國產量創逾30年高點，且OPEC拒絕減產呼籲，為利空。

分析師說，市場開始整理。看來賣壓已耗竭，但可能尚未結束，賣壓可能很快恢復。

紐約原油由1985年11月的每桶31.82美元下跌至1986年4月的9.75美元，跌幅達69%，沙烏地阿拉伯厭倦減產，為市場利空。油價直至1990年才收復該跌幅。

分析師說，與目情況最類似的，是1986年。

IEA調降非OPEC供給成長預估每日35萬桶，為自7月以來，首度調降2015生產預估。

分析師說，市場已嚴重超賣，投資人尋找反彈跡象。

IEA說，低油價不會推升需求，因為目前全球經濟疲弱。IEA維持2015年原油消費預估不變。

2月汽油上漲5.94美分，或4.6%，至每加侖1.3588美元。

Good news


築底完成？基金經理人重返能源類股 最壞的時刻已過
2015/01/15 18:20 鉅亨網薛景懋 外電報導


(圖:AFP)

隨著國際油價跌至 6 年新低，部分共同基金經理人表示，能源類股股價多已經反應觸底，該產業部分類股可望重燃漲勢。

《CNBC》報導，國際級獨立投資研究機構 Morningstar(MORN-US) 資料顯示，美國逾 3200 檔股票型共同基金中，約 450 檔在 2014 年 1 月至 9 月中縮減對能源股的持有部位達 20% 或更多。

美國公司開始公布第 4 季業績財報，許多投資者擔憂油價走跌所帶來的負面影響，恐導致營收不如預期，牽連股價下挫。Nuveen 大型股核心基金經理人 Bob Doll 表示，未來仍會避開能源類股。Doll 認為，能源類股的基本面很差，不具吸引力。

儘管如此，部分基金經理人表示，能源類股最壞的時候已經結束。

Intrepid 小型股基金的首席投資組合經理人 Jayme Wiggins 表示，部份槓桿過高的能源公司可能會倒閉，因此會謹慎挑選。Wiggins 於 2014 年上半年對能源類股曝險大減 62%。不過，今年又開始增加手中持有的能源類股，目前增加 4 檔能源類股，包括過去 3 個月來股價重挫 41% 的鑽探業者 SM Energy(SM-US)。

Monetta 基金首席經理人 Robert Bacarella 近期在觀察油田服務商 Baker Hughes(BHI-US) 與石油製造商 EOG Resources (EOG-US) 等大型公司股，在過去 3 個月以來股價分別上漲 3% 和 2%，股價似乎已在打底。Bacarella 指出，能源類股不論好壞皆遭到市場拋售，目前出現超跌跡象。

Congress All-Cap Opportunity 基金的首席投資組合經理人 Peter Andersen 說道，自己要等到能源公司垃圾債和美國公債的利差縮減之後才會進場。

根據美銀美林的數據顯示，高收益債券較美國公債的利差 12 月底跳升至 7.7%。8 月底時，高收益債收益率僅較美債高 3.7%。

Yup


Rebound

SKPETRO gets US$2.3b (RM8.2b) Islamic loan from 11 banks. CEO says move enables co to return to SC's Shariah-compliant list/TheEdge

dragonslayer AIyo...Yk...ifca you got buy at 12cts boh....if got.....congrate sama lu lor......ha ha ha
15/01/2015 16:43


Last year heard ppl say buy

No buy

Go buy sumatec

Jialat ....

When sumatec can hit RM1


Possible ke....

Ifcams from 0.12 to 0.98

9 X Kali ganda

Buy ifcams better....@@

Ok rebound

Rebound


It time rebound

Game over?

As fast as possible drop to 0.40

Then rebound fast fast

Looiks:

U tell us this is bull shit right??

U hope it drop???

The interim bear market in gold and other precious metals that I’ve been tracking for you isn’t the only bear market out there. As I warned quite some time ago, the price of crude oil would also fall substantially, down to below $70 a barrel, and quite possibly lower, before it bottoms.

Since June 19, oil has plunged from $107.44 a barrel to $67.22 as I pen this column, a $40.22 hit, an amazing plunge of more than 37 percent!



Click for larger version

More losses are coming for oil. In fact, take a look at this monthly chart of oil that I showed you at the end of last year, and notice how spot on my forecast has been.

Oil is now hovering just above that first major support level. Once it cracks that, oil will plunge to as low as $40.

That leg down to $40 could begin any moment, or perhaps after a short-term rally.

The crash in oil prices is hard to believe, when there are so many diehard oil bulls out there. Even more so when you consider all the political hot-spots around the world that are now causing so much turmoil.

But from a fundamental point of view, oil is not bullish. Global oil inventories are fine now; there is no squeeze in supplies.

Moreover, as we all know, the U.S. now has more energy of its own than it’s ever had.

So what is driving oil prices lower? The answer, in my opinion, is simple.

And no, it’s not some far-fetched market manipulation to bring down Putin and Russia.


Oil prices are tumbling now, and the fall will continue. But it won’t last forever.
What’s driving oil lower is the same thing that is driving nearly all commodities lower. It’s called deflation. That’s especially true for Europe. The euro region is in a freefall. Almost every country in Europe is contracting, severely. Unemployment remains sky high, threatening to move even higher.

And all across the globe, rising geo-political tensions and conflict are driving most business people and investors to play it safe, park money in cash, take risk off the table, and hoard and protect their capital and wealth.

That too is deflationary, for all but the U.S. equity markets. So it’s hardly surprising that oil — like gold, silver, copper and so many other commodities — is still in bear-market territory.

But mark my words: a new oil bull market will form from this decline.

How so, when deflation is so strong right now? When there are so many dynamic changes occurring in the oil market, with the U.S. set to become energy independent?

There are three reasons oil will soar again, after it bottoms (in 2015).

First, there’s China. While China is home to oodles of natural gas, its economy is still oil thirsty and will be for a very long time.

In fact, in terms of dependence on oil, the U.S. and China are moving in opposite directions. While the U.S. will soon be energy independent, China will soon be the #1 consumer of oil and almost entirely dependent upon foreign supplies.

Second, there’s incipient global inflation, and a coming end to the dollar reserve system. Europe will crash into a steep deflationary mode in 2015. But it won’t last forever.

At some point in the not-too-distant future, the euro will crash so much that inflation will reappear in Europe, and even here, too.

In addition, the U.S. dollar will eventually lose its reserve currency role, and be supplanted by a new global reserve currency, in electronic form. The dollar’s diminished global role and the uncertainty of a new monetary system and reserve currency is bound to be very bullish down the road for oil prices.

Third is the war cycles. Right now, they are bearish for oil, as they are for gold. But keep in mind that the cycles of war point consistently higher into the year 2020.

That means that rising geo-political tension around the globe is going to accelerate DRAMATICALLY in the months and years ahead, and at some point — also not too far off in the distant future — it IS going to put a firm bid under oil and energy prices.

The question now, though, is how can you play the downside in oil over the next few months, as oil heads toward a major bottom near the $40 level?

Simple: Buy shares in an inverse ETF. My favorite for oil is the ProShares UltraShort DJ-AIG Crude Oil, symbol SCO.

What about energy shares? With very few exceptions, most should trade lower along with oil over the next few months. Then they will become a fantastic buy.

分析師：原油不但會反彈 還會到80美元
2015/01/10 00:05 鉅亨網編譯郭照青

這些日子，原油多頭真是孤苦無依。

根據CNNMoney分析報導，本周初，原油價格跌破了每桶50美元。儘管油價已開始有所回穩，但許多專家並不認為，這黑金的價格已經觸底。

然而，有一位與眾不同的分析師相信，油價未來將會有好日子。

穆迪公司經濟學家拉發基斯(Chris Lafakis)認為，到年底，油價將能上漲至每桶80美元。即自目前水準大漲約65%。

他為何如此樂觀？拉發斯基說，投資人忽略了簡單的經濟規則。

他認為，油價自去年夏季每桶高於100美元水準大幅下挫後，無可避免將引來更多需求。而且此時，因幾家公司已開始延後新的鑽探計劃，未來供給將會減少。

因為低油價，消費者會更願意在花費在石油上。這也正是他認為油價將會大幅反彈的理由。

「因油價下跌，到了某時，需求必然會增加，」他說。「低油價將會鼓舞民眾消費更多原油。這種情況在未來六個月將會發生。」

拉發斯基說，在美國，已經開始見到這類的證據。

美國多家大型汽車公司近來公布休旅車銷售大幅增加。這顯示民眾正利用低能源價格，增加消費原油與汽油。

他認為世界其他地區，也將開始消費更多原油。新興市場將是較大的買家。事實上，他相信增加的需求，大部份係來自新興市場。

拉發斯基承認，只靠新興市場增加消費，就預測油價將反彈至80美元，風險偏高。他還表示他也不願意預期油價已觸及短期的底部。

或許他的說法都是對的。畢竟，鮮少有人預測到油價竟會如此大幅快速下跌。所以，未來最終反彈的速度與幅度，也可能讓人大感意外。

MoneyDJ新聞 2015-01-12 記者 賴宏昌 報導

zerohedge.com 10日報導，北達科他州礦產資源管理部主管Lynn Helms 9日指出，境內12處頁岩油開發區當中、半數的損益兩平點高於目前的每桶原油價格，分別是：BOT-REN(52美元)、BOW-SLP(75美元)、Burke(62美元)、Divide(73美元)、Golden Valley(52美元)、McLean(77美元)。換言之，在油價維持在現有價位的假設基礎下，上述地區新的油井開發都將停擺。

當前海灣國家有充足的財政盈余和外儲支撐這幾個月甚至更長時間的低油價，但俄羅斯、委內瑞拉等過度依賴原油出口收入的國家則處境艱難，如油價持續下跌，主要產油國減產保價的可能性加大。因此，本輪油價底部很難再像2008年金融危機后那樣跌至每桶30多美元，初步預計本輪底部應在每桶45至50美元之間。

彭博社8日報導，高盛私人財富管理公司策略資產配置部主管Brett Nelson表示，美國頁岩油廠商已積極削減資本支出、配合全球經濟持穩，預估今年下半年油價將回升至60-80美元。

DreamCommander Posted by andychucky28 > Jan 12, 2015 06:03 PM | Report Abuse

Rights Issue means looking for money lah bro, no money already.
_______________________________________________________________________

Rights Issue means free extra money to do business la, BodohKid. No need to borrow from bank, but borrow from players & investors only. Then repay later through appreciated stock price. Ada faham ah, BodohKid.

Rights Issue also means that company confident in its own worth, and market hv confidence in the stock. Ada faham ah, BodohBoy.



Then how,,??

Why price can't up???

Ifcams better than

Need to hold half year???

If they approve

I think that is opportunity high to goreng

Can approve anytime???

Or period one???

Like July ?

Dream commander

When is the ex date RI??

Sumatec coming

99speedmarket

Why so fast

Any time ??

Hi

Anyone know when is the ex date right issue???

Good news??

Good morning


Is it good news????


How this week?

Goreng up??

CHLam A few question on HS,

Why he is still proceed with the purchase of BE?
Possiblity 1. Maybe he thinks that this is still viable proposition and can still make profit even
though oil wl drop further below USD40.
2. Raku cost per barrel below USD 40, Suma wl still making profit if brent drop to
USD40?
3. To increased Suma oil production and revenue by bring in BE using existing
tool which wl bring down BE cost to profitable entity?
4. HS got buyer for Suma oil at price above market price so need BE to cover that
order.
5. From his information, oil hv bottom out and this is the best time to rake in early.
6. He got money to goreng Suma to double of the 23 to make it interesting
otherwise HS just cancel the RI and this proposal and wait for better time.

If HS could make Suma move to higher price nxt week, I think one of above is true. My 2 cents.
11/01/2015 18:41



Yup



Yup



I totally agree with u

Feel something going on


That is goreng time soon


Like last two year RI



Push it up to 0.60



After RI


HS look like smart

When is the ex date RI????


Is time goreng soon???


How about next week??


When QR4 come out?

Noraini Ismail Attractive.....but not going for RI......now holding more than 2.5m units @ 0.205 .......
Definitely will sell all before RI............
09/01/2015 23:16



Noraini: is this good news???

How next week???

When the ex date???

Start goreng soon???

有「油神」封號的美國億萬能源投資大戶皮肯斯 (T. Boone Pickens) 近期一再主張，已腰斬的原油價格將反彈回原有價位。而根據本週公佈的訊息，他果真將資金投入自己看好的油價，在第三季買進了能源企業股票。

身為 BP 資本管理董事長的皮肯斯週一 (5 日) 接受《福斯商業電視台》訪問時重申，油價將在 12-18 個月內翻漲至每桶 100 美元，因為低油價將刺激原油需求成長。僅管美國期油價格本週稍早翻落至 5 年半來最低價位，週四 (8 日) 更來到每桶 48.98 點的水準。

皮肯斯當時受訪時還表示，他也看好能源業的併購活動將更活躍。而根據《Guru Focus》週三 (7 日) 報導，皮肯斯公佈自己在第三季確實買進了 3 檔美國能源股，包括德州煉油商 Western Refining (WNR-US)、能源開採商 WPX Energy (WPX-US) 及 Gastar Exploration (GST-US)。

這使得皮肯斯的投資組合當中，能源股的比重來到高達 97.8%。其中添購 158982 股的 Western Refining 占 6.5%，該季平均股價 43 美元；新增 44363 股的 WPX Energy 僅占 1%，季均股價 24 美元；新購 177549 股的 Gastar Exploration 也只占 1%，平均股價 7 美元。

SANG-JERO YkJohn11......Please be extra careful ....a lot of uncertainty........I think I saw looiks were saying can go to 0.15.......Under current scenario......difficult to say....anything can happen.....
07/01/2015 10:13


U anti sumatec now???


Brent rebound soon

I long now

I long mow

SANG-JERO ozzie75.....greetings.....Doesn't looks good in Kazaks.....Red Alert...short term...mid term...long term....looks red...
07/01/2015 09:56


Sang: u short sumatec now??

X
YkJohn11 Is time to rebound

I think
07/01/2015 09:46



What come down

Will come up

Is time to rebound

I think

伊朗油長：油價會回漲到70到90美元
2015/01/06 18:02 鉅亨網新聞中心
(來源：中廣新聞網)

國際油價跌跌不休，不過伊朗石油部長認為，幾個月內石油價格將會上漲，並在每桶70到90美元之間浮動。

伊朗石油部長認為，美國的共和黨人與民主黨人之間的分歧，是可能導致油價波動的原因，不過他沒有進一步解釋其原因。他還指出，目前只能夠透過開採石油這個槓桿，來影響石油市場的局勢。

國際油價最近已下跌到幾年來最低水準，去年11月27日，「石油輸出國家組織」成員國部長級會議，決定維持原有產量配額不變，這進一步導致了油價暴跌。

DreamEmperor Posted by YkJohn11 > Jan 5, 2015 09:01 PM | Report Abuse

Dreamhunter: how you predict the QR4??

If still profit margin 50%
_______________________________________________________________________

Profit margin 5,000% also no point, if the confidence margin and courage margin in your own heart is 0%.


Really bo??

Still can positive ??

If really then sure up

哪里跌倒，那里爬起来

股市消息 (29-12-2014)



股市报佳音，唤醒全球。接下来全球将受圣诞礼物的祝福，应证2015是百花齐放百鸟争鸣的格局。股市会在全球揭起千层浪花，看26/12/2014中美两大股市破历史新高，给了股民一个很好的课程学习。10-10-2014年的亚太股灾，股汇大跌，给精明的股民趁低吸货的机会，那类借贷来炒股的股民肯定血本无归。



全球对冲基金已把大量资金投入股海，亚太股市必引来旋风大作。最佳的投资点以中国为亚太的领头羊。美国已渗入亚太股市，前期的股灾给了美国机会趁低吸货，布局未来的炒作。大马浴火重生，托今年大利南与北，所以2015年肯定大有作为。



接下来最值得投资是暴跌的油气股：BORNOIL，KNM，PERISAI，DAYANG，YINSN，PWORTH，SUMATEC，THHEAVY，JCY，KAREX，CMSB，KKB。家私类股可考虑跟进。



希望失落的股民能在羊年得利，更上一层楼。记着，哪里跌倒，哪里爬起来。

Is time buy in again????

吳中書： 國際油價未來仍有下降空間
2015/01/05 21:07 鉅亨網新聞中心
(來源：中廣新聞網)

外電報導，長達40年的「美國本土原油出口限制」，可能將逐步放寬，這讓國際油價有繼續下跌的空間。中華經濟研究院院長吳中書指出，目前OECD等產油國仍然在生產，同時美國也繼續開採「頁岩油」，由於國際經濟「緩步復甦」，對原油需求較弱，在供給大於需求下，原油進一步走跌的可能性很高。

吳中書表示，國際油價持續下滑，對台灣、日本等能源進口國，是有正面幫助，再加上美國經濟持續成長，讓台灣出口可望受益，預估2015年我國經濟表現將優於2014年。

吳中書說：『有些專家估測，美國頁岩油的開發成本，過去幾年認為每桶是90塊美元，但現在已經降到45~50美元之間，以目前國際原油仍在50幾，表示還有下降空間。』

DreamConqueror Posted by YkJohn11 > Jan 5, 2015 04:28 PM | Report Abuse

Anyone know when Quarter result out???
_______________________________________________________________________

When Q4, 2014 results are out, and they're still fairly good, you will still not believe and hv faith in them. And then you will be asking for the next quarter's results.

But you would still rather be listening to yet more newly made-up ghost stories, sharks & whales, and other unsubstantiated, evidence-less conspiracy theories. And still remain fearful, worried and anxious.

So, what is the point in asking.



Dreamhunter: how you predict the QR4??

If still profit margin 50%

Possible??

If yes

Then the price may go up soon

Any update result from you heard??

Can share share ?


Thanks
Coz I still hold

Anyone know when Quarter result out???

Buy in now???

YkJohn11 So any idea next week

Look like critical time

Up or drop again