If you're thinking that Harta is going to shoot up in price in the near term, its pretty close to hoping for a miracle. We're crabbing right now, avoid buying high just to sell low (short term). If you expand the time horizon, what's high now could be low in the further future.

Natsuko is awfully quiet today, not going to tell everyone that this is last chance to escape before bigger capital loss? lol

When ASP drop, Natsuko: Malaysia glove going to die because selling below cost!
When Malaysian glove co increase SP, Natsuko: Malaysia glove tak boleh tahan want to hike price already, but China still continue dump to catch the whole market!

Prime example of you cant please a hater.

Yooooo Khatu with some legit comments. First time seeing the real you, thanks for the entertainment thus far! Not so insane after all!

Posted by khatulistiwa1234 > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Whatever you do , good or bad , people will always have something negative to say about , critic and condemn is normal , as many will putting 1.20 or even lower 0.80 ..... people tongue you cannot control their saying , BUT please lah .... enough is enough ..... current in this after pandemic economic recovery period , i accept the weird phenomena climate ..... swing up and down on raw material , oil crude and etc ... no matter how badly someone treats you , never drop down to their level , remain calm , stay strong , walk away .

Posted by khatulistiwa1234 > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

I hate those easy can influence public silly investor ......for me ....... PLUNGED due to changed climate , i can understand , even agreed the reaction , weakness is everywhere , the holding power is weak , so call , LOUSY investor , the LEAVE , consider ADD MARK to strengthen the HARTALEGA itself , i putting the MERIT on it ...... ONLY THE STRENGTH STRONG GUY can own the PRIVILEGE MEMBERSHIP OF TRILLION DOLLAR HEAVY WEIGHT CHAMPION SEAT ...OF HARTALEGA .

@James_Bond source?

@Natsuko, well now that's a better reason to sell than penny stock, got to use that money for fun rather than investing.

@Natsuko when is the end of the world?

Well Natsuko has switched back to being brain dead:
- sahara desert having heavy rain fall like in Malaysia
- China can flip down whole USA and Europe
- Putin announced war to USA and western allies

What's next? Then why are you promoting MI and Dnex? Joker of a human being.

China will shift their glove factory to Africa - lol now i'm not sure if you're just talking nonsense by pulling this from the sky, or whether you have an extraordinary way of getting info about the future.

If Harta stop being able to differentiate themselves from new glove manufacturers/suppliers though, then I agree it is the price war game. Even with that, Harta has a lot of cash to burn, with the world shifting focus to ESG, how long can China glove manufacturers keep using coal? how about labour problems? Big companies are looking to shift their labour work out of China, looking towards India for example. It is not all gloom and doom. Are there uncertainties? Yes, definitely. The price now is probably reflecting those uncertainties.

Cheaper selling price is not everything*

@Natsuko, I would disagree with that. Although comparing smart phones to gloves are far from apple to apple, but considering how similar the different brands & models of smart phones are nowadays, you can still see where lies the most value. Cheaper selling price is not anything, question is whether Harta or any other glove company selling higher price has the differentiation factor to enable them continue doing it - longer history, good esg, good ethical value & provides consistency to customer. A lot of intangible factors leading to "trust", and trust is priceless.

@bang_miskin regarding the skepticism on Oct ASP increase, does TG has a track record of lying to investors/window dressing? Didn't follow that company closely.

@bang_misking yeah im hoping if anyone can estimate TG's nitril gloves ASP for Jun - Aug 2022 based on available info, that would highly impact Harta's Jul - Sep 2022 results I think. Not sure where to find sales volume info for TG, could help with gauging cost per unit as well.

If the write down is not due to overly low ASP (i.e. maintain above $20), then I believe Harta's next QR should start to show some stability instead of continuous sliding down. But if TG also join in China's competition to throw prices, that would be tough on Harta.

Take a deep breath @Cerubic, it's funny when you don't take them seriously. Especially Khatu's comments. As for Natsuko, I suggest to ignore. If they heeded their own comments and shorted this counter, they would be rich af by now and no need to comment here. So they are just talking down without action anyway, ignore them.

@terence, looking forward to your detailed analysis.

TG's QR is out, 1 good news and 1 bad news from my brief read - TG increasing its ASP by 5% in Oct 2022 and TG writing down its inventory in 4Q2022.

While increasing ASP sounds good, I wonder how low have they been selling in the quarter ended Aug 2022 - this could be the very reason why they are writing down their inventories (writing down inventories means cost of inventory is lower than selling price). So if TG's cost per unit is not too high, the ASP could be bad.

If TG threw down prices in Jun, Jul, Aug (and assuming Sept as well since price increase effective only in Oct) - Harta's next QR could be worrying.

Cool as a cucumber. Invest with money you can afford to lose.

@Terrence yeah, nothing new for the business yet many stories and predictions can be made out of nowhere. Let's see how red we can get for TG's QR. I'm just hoping no further slide in ASP, couldn't care less about TG's profit as they are far worse in cost management when compared to Harta.

Ahhh, back after 1 week break and I see Natsuko + Khatu in the latest page, couldn't expect anything less. Natsuko the #1 Harta hater.

I would be very concerned if Harta starts making gross losses, hope the margin shows itself to be stabilising next QR onwards. Keeping that ~3sen EPS would be crucial.

@Cerubic what a shocking news, considering how recent was the appointment of Truss as PM.

@bang_miskin I have serious doubts on 1.2, we may get close to 1.5 or even slightly below it, but 1.2 is equivalent to impairing the current NAPS on behalf of the company. Not a small impairment too, its 20% impairment. Considering that Harta is still getting net profit (not even considering the gross profit), i seriously doubt that from an accounting perspective.

But ofcourse, market does whatever it wants, and nothing is impossible. Just feel like we're getting down to the basics now, since we're far from giving the company good PE.

LOL Khatu, keep calm and hodl, assuming you bought.

@khatu, dont bother about the TP. But their analysis is worth a read and to contrast with management's expectation. There's quite a big gap honestly, Kenanga thinks 2025 to recover, management thinks latest 2H2023. Let's see.

we've been seeing >10mil volume daily at this price range, is it really possible to see much lower? Curious to see the reaction after TG's inevitable cukai makmur QR release.

well today is a weird day for harta's share price, having a decent green in a day where majority of the market is red. natsuko will tell you its the last chance to escape. lol

Kenanga is pretty bearish about the supply-demand dynamics. I wonder if all the plants yet to be commissioned by "glove players" will really continue to be commissioned over the next 2 years as estimated by Kenanga. With the current low ASP, wouldn't these people be making losses for commissioning the plants? Even Harta delayed the NGC 1.5 commissioning.

@cerubic yeah people are expecting europe to have a rough winter, take care!

@Cerubic have fun in your backpack trip!!

caveat for bang_miskin, *if you have spare cash to throw around with a decent chance that it will appreciate few years down the road" how many years is "few"? no one knows.

@James_Bond, do you then invest your money in FD? Hoping on more enlightenment on where to put the cash.

Bottom fisher i guess, fear of missing out the lowest of lows. This strategy hasn't serve me well so far this year, but how low will the market go? If it is recession time, then it is time for DCA.

@value_seeker agreed on wait and see if you have not invested, but if you've bought in, it is a risky move to sell now in hopes that it will drop lower to buy back. It's almost the same as RSS. That is a risky game I don't want to buy. But if you meet Natsuko's 3 conditions, by all means - sell.

@Natsuko thanks for that, I don't have all 3, no reason for me to sell.

Agree to disagree on the thesis part, I don't think Harta is going down the drain, I was personally satisfied with Q1, let's see how things goes moving forward. We all know glove demand is growing, the problem now would be the supply, and for this part - in Harta's management I trust. They have good work ethic & values and should be able to keep their key customers to buy from them at a more premium price (when compared to current market) in exchange for stability in supplies.

I would be more concerned if Harta really starts to go loss making without a near term solution. Closing inefficient plants would be the first step towards cost reduction, so as I said, lets see.

@fluhub888 answer is, we didn't choose to enter when its confirmed to be downtrending. We chose to enter when the price fits/goes below what we perceive as fair value based on the business of the company, and we believe in their future (despite other investors don't).

And if you look at the market as a whole, majority is "downtrending" now anyways with the recent geopolitical uncertainties, inflations, and rate hikes. If you are able to choose and trade the right counter to make gains even at this time, then good on you. But consider yourself genius/lucky, cause even berkshire hathaway aint doing that great.

@WinBigOrLoseAll sums it all up in your last comment.

@Ryan83, let's see what happens next quarter. I believe in Harta's strategy, you dont always have to fight price with price head on, differentiate ownself in another way.

@Leslie have a look at Harta's top 30 shareholders, you'd be surprised.

@natsuko, I'm curious, so you have an opinion that china will takeover the glove market and eliminate malaysian glove sellers. And that opinion is based on your expectation that China gov will do all it takes to help their glove companies takeover the glove market?

I'm in the second boat, I have no problem keep on holding to my Harta so long the company don't do unreasonable things or going to bankrupt. However, it doesnt mean I won't buy, the entry price just got to make sense for my overall portfolio exposure.

in my opinion, there's 2 ways to look at buying during a dump:
1. catching the falling knife (looking for a potential technical rebound and quickly sell off)
2. the fall in price matched with investors' budget and they decided to increase their exposure in the stock

If you are investing for long term, becareful of your thoughts to catch a rebound, that's already beyond your initial research. Play it long, play it safe.

@cerubic I'm very intrigued with the AGM discussions, will be better prepared next year and most likely take a half day leave to attend.

the article by edge sounds more comprehensive

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hartalega-slows-ngc-15-plant-expansion-glove-oversupply-dents-demand

thanks @cerubic! looks like its consistent to what was discussed in the annual report, except the part where they are urging for gov to help? I don't recall reading that. Did they specify any kind of assistance would be good? labour maybe?

@mini too bad cheap is subjective. If you ask me, it was cheap since rm3.8. But EPF would beg to differ, and I am the smaller fish compare to them, so what can I do? Watch and learn. Not selling at this price, I'd rather take my share certs and throw into the sea for entertainment's sake.

@bang_miskin yeah im glad that i did not have extra money when it was 3.8 & 2.8, both look so attractive at that time. But if we ever see 1.2, there won't be a risk of another 60% fall at that price....

bang_miskin got extra space on your couch?

lol i3lurker pulling numbers from the sky.

HAHAHAHAH he just asked you to smash his neck, I cannot. You're funny Khatu, I give that to you.

LOL I've found myself enjoying Khatu's story sometimes. So damn random that it added a comedic effect.