Indonesia AirAsia 1Q14 Operating Statistics:
Seats Available
1Q14: 2,748,240 (supply)
4Q13: 2,818,980
3Q13: 2,741,040
2Q13: 2,444,760

Passenger Carried
1Q14: 2,096,246 (demand)
4Q13: 2,153,362
3Q13: 2,057,580
2Q13: 1,921,839

Unoccupied Seats
1Q14: 651,994 (excess)
4Q13: 665,618
3Q13: 683,460
2Q13: 522,921

Load Factor
1Q14: 76%
4Q13: 76%
3Q13: 75%
2Q13: 79%

Available Seat Kilometres (ASK)
1Q14: 3,126 (supply)
4Q13: 3,271
3Q13: 3,245
2Q13: 2,873

Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK)
1Q14: 2,399 (demand)
4Q13: 2,506
3Q13: 2,458
2Q13: 2,282

Number of flights flown
1Q14: 15,268 (decrease)
4Q13: 15,661
3Q13: 15,228
2Q13: 13,582

Number of aircraft including spares
1Q14: 30
4Q13: 30
3Q13: 26
2Q13: 24

For those buying or still holding this stock, study the statistics for your next action! Remember folks, the local & foreign funds are not only selling slowly but surely! Careful now! Hahahahahahahah!!

Folks, if stock market experts were so expert, they would be buying & selling stock, not giving advice.

Due to FY2014 & 2015 will be the difficult year as mentioned by the AA Group management, this stock is on it relentless tendency to regress towards its long-term mean.

The local & foreign funds are selling slowly & surely in order not to cause panic. Sooner or later panic selling will emmerge to bring the price much lower, folks! How? Careful now! Heheheheheheheheheh!!

Folks, airlines expected to experience deteriorating financial performance in 2014 as unit costs are expected to rise due to a weaker ringgit.

Ringgit Vs dollar during the 1Q14:
Jan 2014: Low 3.25 High 3.35
Jan 2013: low 2.94 High 3.05

Feb 2014: Low 3.28 High 3.35
Feb 2013: Low 3.03 High 3.11

Mar 2014: Low 3.25 High 3.31
Mar 2013: Low 3.03 High 3.13

Folks, the adverse forex movement is likely to dampen its 1Q14 earnings. Weak ringgit against US dollars would have inflated the import cost of fuel price & interest expenses, folks!

Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing! How? Hahahahahahahah!!

Malaysia AirAsia 1Q14 Operating Statistics:
Seats Available
1Q14: 6,669,540 (supply)
4Q13: 6,952,580
3Q13: 6,874,920
2Q13: 6,896,880

Passenger Carried
1Q14: 5,373,202 (demand)
4Q13: 5,912,541
3Q13: 5,262,752
2Q13: 5,509,576

Unoccupied Seats
1Q14: 1,296,338 (over-supply)
4Q13: 1,040,139
3Q13: 1,612,168
2Q13: 1,387,304

Load Factor
1Q14: 81% (down)
4Q13: 85%
3Q13: 77%
2Q13: 80%

Available Seat Kilometres (ASK)
1Q14: 7,945 (supply)
4Q13: 8,139
3Q13: 7,828
2Q13: 7,915

Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK)
4Q14: 6,411 (demand)
4Q13: 6,885
3Q13: 6,118
2Q13: 6,333

Number of flights flown
1Q14: 37,053 (decrease)
4Q13: 38,626
3Q13: 38,194
2Q13: 38,316

Number of aircraft including spares
1Q14: 72
4Q13: 71
3Q13: 66
2Q13: 59

1. Folks, more supply than demand has caused 1,296,338 of seats unoccupied in the 1Q14.

2. ASK were at 7,945 but sadly only 6,411 were Revenue Passenger Kilometres in the 1Q14.

2. Flights cancellation have decrease in flights flown in 1Q14 compared to other quarters. Only 1 aircraft was added in 1Q14.

So the big question: how many flights were cancelled to achieve 81% load factors? Remember folks without cancellation the load factors will be well below 75%!

How? Hahahahahahah!!

Folks, Mr. Market is adjusting the price with regard to the weak 1Q14 statistics announcement before hell break loose prior to the 1Q14 financial results announcement.

If the 1Q14 operating statistics are good, why are the local & foreign funds dumping this stock nonstop? Hmmmmmmm.......!!

Hahahahahahaah!!

Thai AirAsia 1Q14 Operating Statistics
Seats Available
1Q14: 3,886,200 (supply)
4Q13: 3,657,420
3Q13: 3,063,240
2Q13: 2,944,440

Passenger Carried
1Q14: 3,117,205 (demand)
4Q13: 2,956,243
3Q13: 2,557,305
2Q13: 2,423,076

Unoccupied Seats
1Q14: 768,995 (over-supply)
4Q13: 701,177
3Q13: 505,935
2Q13: 521,364

Load Factor
1Q14: 80% (down)
4Q13: 81%
3Q13: 83%
2Q13: 82%

Available Seat Kilometres (ASK)
1Q14: 3,822 (supply)
4Q13: 3,593
3Q13: 3,282
2Q13: 3,064

Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK)
1Q14: 3,057 (demand down)
4Q13: 2,895
3Q13: 2,769
2Q13: 2,551

Number of flights flown
1Q14: 21,590 (increase in operation costs)
4Q13: 20,319
3Q13: 17,018
2Q13: 16,358

Number of aircraft including spares
1Q14: 37
4Q13: 35
3Q13: 31
2Q13: 29

Thai AA carried 3.12m passengers in the 1Q14, up 22% year-on-year. Average load factors did suffer however, dropping to 80% following the arriving of nine new aircraft, which added 31% more seat capacity.

How? Hahahahahahahah!!

Buy low & sell high but at current price the share price is still high! Even the foreign funds are dumping this stock.

The 1Q14 results will be weak as such Rm1.70-1.85 will be unavoidable price. Hahahahahahahahah!!

Careful now folks as none stop dumping by local & foreign funds. The 1Q14 operating statistics showed it all & critical support level at rm2.20 should be easily broken soon.

If a business don't do well, stock eventually follows, folks! Hahahahahaahah!!

Folks, be fearful when the local & foreign funds are greedy selling continuosly! Startegy now is buy low & sell high but at current price the share price is still high! The operarting statistics for the 1Q14 showed it all!

How now, folks? Heheheheheheheh!!

Folks, airlines expected to experience deteriorating financial performance in 2014 as unit costs are expected to rise due to a weaker ringgit.

Ringgit Vs dollar during the 1Q14:
Jan 2014: Low 3.25 High 3.35
Jan 2013: low 2.94 High 3.05

Feb 2014: Low 3.28 High 3.35
Feb 2013: Low 3.03 High 3.11

Mar 2014: Low 3.25 High 3.31
Mar 2013: Low 3.03 High 3.13

Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing! How? Hahahahahahahah!!

Airasia Group Revenue:
1Q14: Good or Bad?
4Q13: Rm1.354b
3Q13: Rm1.280b
2Q13: Rm1.246b
1Q13: Rm1.301b

Operating expenses:
1Q14: Bad or Ugly?
4Q13: (Rm1.039b)
3Q13: (Rm0.988b)
2Q13: (Rm1.002b)
1Q13: (Rm1.045b)

Finance Income
1Q14: Good or Bad?
4Q13: Rm13.737m
3Q13: Rm16.394m
2Q13: Rm14.306m
1Q13: Rm19.771m

Finance Costs
1Q14: Bad or Ugly?
4Q13: (Rm110.327m)
3Q13: (Rm106.343m)
2Q13: (Rm109.412m}
1Q13: (Rm106.294m)

Foreign Exchange gains/(losses) on borrowings
1Q14: Bad or Ugly?
4Q13: (Rm39.041m)
3Q13: (Rm185.885m)
2Q13: (Rm122.718m)
1Q13: (Rm37.688m)

Profit After Tax
1Q14: Bad or Ugly?
4Q13: Rm245.357m
3Q13: Rm35.482m
2Q13: Rm58.348m
1Q13: Rm104.793m

If a business don't do well, stock eventually follows, folks! How? Hahahahahahah!!

Airasia Group Operating statistics:
Capacity
1Q14: 14,652,900 (supply)
4Q13: 14,649,033
3Q13: 13,917,211
2Q13: 12,475,260

Passengers Carried
1Q14: 11,481,386 (demand)
4Q13: 11,808,514
3Q13: 10,607,642
2Q13: 9,994,525

Unoccupied Seats
1Q14: 3,171,514 (due to excessive capacity)
4Q13: 2,840,519
3Q13: 3,309,569
2Q13: 2,480,735

Load Factor
1Q14: 78% (poor load)
4Q13: 81%
3Q13: 76%
2Q13: 80%

Available Seat Kilometres (ASK)
1Q14: 16,271 (supply)
4Q13: 16,144
3Q13: 15,659
2Q13: 14,105

Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK)
1Q14: 12,774 (demand)
4Q13: 13,034
3Q13: 12,206
2Q13: 11,359

Number of flights flown
1Q14: 81,405 (increase aircrafts but less flights flown)
4Q13: 81,507
3Q13: 77,441
2Q13: 69,281

Number of aircraft including spares
1Q14: 157
4Q13: 154
3Q13: 142
2Q13: 121

1. Folks, more supply than demand has caused 3,171,514 of seats unoccupied in the 1Q14. Available Seat Kilometres were at 16,271 but sadly there were only 12,744 Revenue Passenger Kilometres in the 1Q14.

2. Eventhough in 1Q14 AA group has received 3 extra aircraft, flight cancellation has caused AA Group to register less flights flown compared to 1Q13. How many flights were cancelled?

Are you ready for the perfect storm ahead, folks? Hahahahahahahah!!

Will the weak & critical support level at rm2 hold? Shares of stock lose value when company profits drop or investors believe that company profits will drop!

So what next to come? Careful now, folks! Heheheheheheheh!!

Will the weak buying support continue? Careful now, folks! Hahahahahahah!!

WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT COMPANY

Disposed 23/04/2014:: 900,000 price range: 2.30-2.35
Disposed 24/04/2014 2,313,200 price range: 2.24-2.34
Acquired 29/04/2014 1,046,800 price range: 2.23-2.27
Disposed 30/04/2014 4,802,800 price range: 2.19-2.25

Folks, small & big local & foreigns were the main sellers last week due to poor than expected "1Q14 Operating Statistics."

The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's news. Below Rm2.00 soon coming, folks! Heheheheheheheh!!

Folks, I like this volatile stock & has given me opportunities to profits from it.

But sadly the 1Q14 results will be below expectations & at the current price this stock price is still high. Should be blow Rm2 after the 1Q14 results announcement, folks! If it is cheap why aren't EPF or Tune on buying spree like before?

Remember folks, risk comes from not knowing what you're doing. If a business don't do well, the stock eventually follows! Hahahahahahahaah!!

Philippines AirAsia

1Q14: Passengers 0.89m
4Q13: Passengers 0.79m

1Q14: Fleet 18
4Q13: Fleet 17

Philippines AA saw a sharp rising in traffic, albeit from a low base. Hmmmmmm...so folks, how?

Hahahahahahahah!!

Indonesian AirAsia

1Q14: Passengers 2.10m
qQ13: Passengers 2.20m

1Q14: Traffic up 22% year-on-year
4Q13: Traffic up 33% year-on-year

1Q14: Load factors 76%
4Q13: Load factors 76%

Will the weak 4Q13 results carry into 1Q14, folks? Hmmmmmm..!! Heheheheheheh!!

Thai AirAsia

1Q14: Passengers 3.12m
4Q13: Passengers 3m

1Q14: Up 22% year-on-year
4Q13: Up 30% year-on-year

1Q14: Load factors 80%
4Q13: Load factors 81%

Thai AA carried 3.12m passengers in the 1Q14, up 22% year-on-year. Average load factors did suffer however, dropping to 80% following the arriving of nine new aircraft, which added 31% more seat capacity.

Hmmmmmm..!! How folks? Heheheheheheheh!!

Malaysian AirAsia 1Q14 Preliminary Operating Statistics

1Q14: Passengers 5.4m
4Q13: Passengers 5.9m

1Q14: Up 4% year-on-year
4Q13: Up 14% year-on-year

1Q14: Load factors 81%
4Q13: Load factors 85%

So will the 1Q14 results be bad or ugly, folks? Heheheheheheeh!!

Airasia Group 1Q14 Preliminary Operation Statistics

1Q14: Group load factor 78%
4Q13: Group load factor 81%

1Q14: Passengers 11.5 milliom
4Q13: Passengers 11.8 million

1Q14: Traffic Jumps 17% yoy
4Q13: Traffic Jumps 28% yoy

1Q14: Fleet Size 157 aircraft
4Q13: Fleet Size 154 aircraft

So the big question: will the weak 4Q13 results carry into 1Q14? Only time will tell!! Careful now, folks! Hahahahahahahah!!

Folks, of course AA is cheap for a reason and will stay cheaper for months to come as theirs slumping profit margins remain a problem for stock market. Beside facing heavy competition, and it might not be able to pass on to passengers:

1. The 9% rise in landing charges from January 2014.
2. The upcoming 9%-11% rise in airport passenger service charges in February 2014.
3. The 6% GST in Malaysia from April 2015.

So will the weak 4Q13 results carry into 1Q14? The truth hurts! Hahahahahahahahah!!

Folks, AirAsia Bhd Q1 results should be out sometime on May 19-23. Remember folks, the local & foreign funds are getting ready by selling slowly & surely on poor 1Q14 earnings.

So are you ready? Hmmmmm..!!

Folks, the local & foreign funds are selling slowly & surely as 1Q14 results expected to be poor! If a business don't do well, the stock eventually follows!

Careful now, folks! HahahahahahahahH!!

Will the rally continue? Will critical support level at 2.20 hold? Time will tell! Careful now, folks! Heheheheheheheheheh!!

Investors become emotionally attached to a stock and overlook the company's shortcomings. Whatever the reason loving a stock, separate your emotions from the hard reality that with less growth & increase turnover it time to sell.

If a business don't do well, the stock eventually follows, folks! Below Rm2 will the the next target! Heheheheheheheheh!!

The wise things to do when investing is to use your head & not to follow your emotions! Face the fact that Asian LCCs’ struggle with overcapacity meaning more supply than demamnd!

As such AA growth is affected which has caused the airline to defer total of 19 aircraft deliveries in 2014 & 2015, while selling 6 existing aircraft.

How? Hahahahahahahahah!!

Folks, face the facts and move on. It is wise to direct your anger towards problems not people, to focus your energies on answers not excuses.

Folks, hope no one here is bleeding catching the falling knife! If you think 2.19 is low just wait & see next week. Hahahahahahahahahaah!!

Folks, the big local & foreign funds must have smelt something cooking on the 1Q14 operation Statistics fo Airasia which is suppose to be out next week.

With such aggressive & massive selling look like the 1Q14 operation satistics is going to be bad. Worse still more aggressive selling pressure to comes before all hell break loose after the 1Q14 earnings announcement.

So the big question: will you buy or hold something destined to be below Rm2 soon? Investors have short memories!!

Will year low at 2.18 hold? Hmmmmm...careful now as shares of stock lose value when company profits drop or investors believe that company profits will drop.

Below rm2 in the making, folks! Hahahahahahahah!!

Remember folks, be fearful when big local & foreign funds are very fearful and be very fearful when retail investors are greedy.

So how now? Hahahahahahahaah!!

Folks, the Delhi High Court on Thursday said that it will constitute a special bench to hear the plea of BJP leader Subramanian Swamy and Federation of Indian Airlines (FIA) seeking a stay on the commencement of operations of two new aviation ventures, namely, AirAsia and Tata-SIA Airlines.

The special bench constituted by the High Court will hear the matter on July 11. Now the big question: will AA India able to operate in June 2014? June 2015 maybe possible, folks. How?

Hahahahahahahah!!

Will the rally continue, folks? Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing! Hahahahahahah!!

Price Performamce:

01 month
Low: 2.19 (30/04/14)

03 months
Low: 2.19 (30/04/14)

12 months
Low: 2.18 (27/12/13)

Folks, if a business doesn't do well, the stock eventually follows. A new low below Rm2.00 in the making! Careful now!

Hehehehehehehe!!

Are you buying a disaster on its way down thinking you are averaging your costs or its a bargain buy?

Careful now, if a business doesn't do well, the stock eventually follows! Heeheheheheheheeh!!

Why hang on to shares that are depreciating? Hoping the shares would pick up again? But this is a very practical way to see your money melt down like a burning candle.

The fact is the 1Q14 results will be either bad or ugly. Share buy-back might only materialized next year knowing AA intetntion to conserve cash. Even the owners are not buying more maybe knowing it will get cheaper in the coming months.

The trurth hurts, folks! Expensive lesson learned thou! Wakakakakakakakakakaka!!

FY2014 & 2015 will be the most difficult year for AA due to stiff competition in & out of Malaysia by other LCCs.

Overcapacity in the market is an ongoing issue LCCs are facing causing airline like AA to sell 6 existing aircraft while deferring 19 other.

Weak 4Q13 results will carry into 1Q14 results folks! Investors have short memories!!

Folks, yields likely to only stabilise at its current weak levels or below as there are no signs of any other re-rating catalysts that could turn the airlines’ earnings momentum positive within the next 12 months.

Also folks, expects international routes to experience further yield compression following the tragic incident.

The truth hurts! So will the 1Q14 earnings be bad or ugly? Hmmmmm....!

Now the big question: Will the one year low at 2.18 hold, folks? With weak 1Q14 results making new low should be a problem for this stock.

Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leak.

Without pressing a panic button the local & foreign funds are dumping slowly & surely to change vessel before hell break loose after the 1Q14 announcement. How? Hahahahahahahahahah!!

Most of the minds are not trained to acknowledge the fact that you have made a mistake and probably the best thing is to move on to other potential stock or sell n buy back later at a very much discounted price.

Window of opportunity to sell was opened for the past couple of months went unheeded which is now becoming an expensive lesson thou!

But sadly most investors have short memories!! Heheheheheheheh!!

Themes for investing: Buy Low Sell High! AA with current predicaments at crurent price is still expensive, folks!

It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price! Can you dig that!!

Hahahahahahahaah!!

Relax hjey......after the 1Q14 operation statistics more selling pressure to comes before all hell break loose after the 1Q14 earnings announcement.

The non believer will be forced to be a long term investor with yesterday news! Hahahahahahahah!!

Folks, seem like the big local & foreign funds have an insight news on the "operation Statistics" for the 1Q14.

With such aggressive & massive selling pressure from the local & foreign funds today, look like the 1Q14 operation Statistics must be below expectation.

Anyway you will only get to know the 1Q14 "operation Statistics" early next week. Careful now! The investors of today doesn't profit from yesterday news! Hahahahahahahahahah!!

Folks, be fearful when local & foreign funds dumping this stock! Also be fearful when only retail investors are greedy!

Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing, folks! Hahahahahahah!!

Thailand – Battleground 2

There will also be interesting battles in Thailand too in which Thai AirAsia will take on Thai Lion Air as both companies plan to add 8 new aircraft in Thailand operations this year.

Nok Air will try to defend its market share by adding 4 aircraft. In the long haul segment, the first two LCCs, Thai AirAsia X and NokScoot, will engage in a dog fight as both plan to serve Tokyo Narita for their first destination.

For 2014, however, the recent anti-government protest in Bangkok has caused some pains to Thailand tourism. Tourist arrival from Malaysia, being the largest tourist group in Thailand, has declined by 13.4%!

Folks, LCCs will continue to ramp up its fleet sizes to capture and defend their market share. In this environment, yield would usually go lower.

How now? Will there be enough growth for all? Hahahahahahahah!!

Folks, AirAsia India is expected to incur start-up losses in its first year of operation in India.

But AA India is already incurring more than Rm3 million loses for every quarter while waiting for the permit since September 2013.

Beware of the little expenses; a small leak will sink a great ship. How? Hmmmmm..!!

India – Battleground 1

Now Malindo Air has launched 28 weekly flights between Malaysia-India routes, targeting Mumbai, Delhi, Tiruchirappalli and Ahmedabad.

What & whose next? Tiger Air, Jetstar, etc? Hmmmmmm..!

Overcapacity in Southeast Asia by LCCs:

Project fleet as of 31/12/2014
1 Lion Air 105
2 AirAsia 76
3 Cebu Pacific Air 48
4 Thai AirAsia 43
5 Wings Air 34
6 Tigerair 33
7 Citilink 32
8 Indonesia AirAsia 30
9 Nok Air 26
10 Malindo Air 23
11 Jetstar Asia 19
12 AirAsia X 21
13 VietJet Air 18
14 Zest AirAsia 12
15 Thai Lion Air 10
16 Tigerair Mandala 9
17 Scoot 6
18 Jetstar Pacific 6
19 Tigerair Philippines 4
20 Golden Myanmar Airlines 4
21 Orient Thai Airlines 4
22 Philippines AirAsia 2
23 Valuair 0
24 Thai AirAsia X 2
25 Thai VietJet Air 2
26 NokScoot 2
27 Indonesia AirAsia X 2

Total of 573

Folks, the rapid emergence of new LCCs will see four new entrants, ie: Thai AirAsia X, Indonesia AirAsia X, NokScoot, Thai VietJet Air, joining the fray this year with initial fleet size of 2 aircraft each for these companies.

However, the bane of overcapacity for the industry came from peers’ aggressive expansion strategies, which would add 88 new aircraft to bring the fleet size to 573 by end-2014.

So will there be growth? Hmmmmmm..the truth hurts! Hahahahahahah!!

2014 is expected to be a challenging year or perhaps the most difficult year in the history of Malaysian aviation industry.

While the tragic incident would continue to deter travel sentiment, stiff competition in Southeast Asia presages that airline’s profit
would also be negatively affected.

SO how? Buy, hold or sell? A hint: If a business don't do well, the stock eventually follows! Hahahahahahah!!