Folks, many investors select stocks based on recent strong management performance. The feeling that "I'm missing out on great returns" has probably led to more bad investment decisions than any other single factor.

If a particular stock has done extremely well for three or four years, we know one thing with certainty: We should have invested three or four years ago.

Now, however, the particular cycle that led to this great performance may be nearing its end. The smart money is moving out, and the dumb money is pouring in.

Remember folks, stick with your investment plan and rebalance, which is the polar opposite of chasing performance.

Now has the party for Airasia ended? If a business does well, the stock eventually follows. How? Hahahahahahahahah!!

Why hang on to shares that are depreciating? Hoping the shares would pick up again? But this is a very practical way to see your money melt down like a burning candle.

Careful now! Hahahahahahahah!!

The 2 Worst Aviation Business Failures in History

1. SwissAir - The former national airline of Switzerland, Swissair, used to be so financially stable that it was known as the “Flying Bank.”

2. Pan Am - It’s amazing how a country’s identity can be so closely tied to a business. Founded in 1927, the airline was a part of American culture for the better part of the 20th century.

Price Performamce:

01 month
High: 0.825 (05/03/14)
Low : 0.740 (25/03/14)

12 months
High: 1.280 (10/07/13)
Low : 0.740 (25/03/14)

Folks, with unfavourable FY2014 earnings anticipated this stock is on relentless tendency to regress towards its long-term mean. Hmmmmmm...0.52? Heheheheheheheheh!!

Before the AirasiaX IPO, AirAsia have stated that they will not exercise their option to buy AiAsiaX in the Bursa Announcement. If they believe the price can goes up why didn’t they exercise that option then?

Investors have short memories!! Below 0.70 in the making? Just wait & see! Hahahahahahahaha!!

Revenue
FY14: Fair or Good?
FY13: 5.189b
FY12: 4.946b

Profit after tax
FY14: Bad or Ugly?
FY13: 364.071m
FY12: 789.608m

Now the big question: will the weak FY13 earnings carry into FY14? Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing. Careful now! Hahahahahahah!!

1. Folks, after years of explosive growth, the region's budget carriers are now facing fears of overcapacity as deliveries accelerate, airlines expand into each other's markets and currency weakness threatens to puncture economic growth.

2. Airlines in Southeast Asia are estimated to have a fleet of 1,800 by the end of this year, he said, while their order book is set to surpass the 2,000 mark.

3. Already in 2013, available capacity grew faster than passenger demand in countries such as Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore, putting pressure on yields or the average revenue per passenger for every kilometre flown.

4. That could extend further in 2014 as carriers in Southeast Asia take delivery of about 230 aircraft worth over $20 billion this year, at a rate close to one new jet every working day.

5. Now the big question: Will there be enough growth for AA & AAX to generate an impressive earnings? Careful now!

Hahahahahahahahhah!!

Folks, airlines in Southeast Asia are estimated to have a fleet of 1,800 by the end of this year, he said, while their order book is set to surpass the 2,000 mark.

Already in 2013, available capacity grew faster than passenger demand in countries such as Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore, putting pressure on yields or the average revenue per passenger for every kilometre flown.

That could extend further in 2014 as carriers in Southeast Asia take delivery of about 230 aircraft worth over $20 billion this year, at a rate close to one new jet every working day.

How? Will there be enough growth for AA to generate an impressive earnings? Careful now!

Hahahahahahahahhah!!

Folks, after years of explosive growth, the region's budget carriers are now facing fears of overcapacity as deliveries accelerate, airlines expand into each other's markets and currency weakness threatens to puncture economic growth.

So will the weak 4Q earnings carry over into 1QFY14? Careful now? Hahahahahahahah!!

Will the Sucker Rally continue? Will the 1Q be good, bad or uglyyyyy......? Remember folks, beware of the little expenses: a small leak will sink a great ship.

Hahahahahahahahhahaha!!

Even as its no-frills venture AirAsia India awaits the flying licence from the regulator DGCA to launch its operations, the Tata's joint venture with Singapore Airlines has got the nod from the aviation ministry.

In a late evening development yesterday, the Civil Aviation ministry granted a no-objection certificate to the Tata-SIA joint venture, which will enable the company to approach the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) for securing an air operator's permit.

So folks, what happenned to Airasia India? Hmmmmmmmm...maybe there too many LCCs in Indian sky. How? Hahahahahahaah!!

Airasia is on relentless tendency to regress towards its long-term mean. Probably below 2.00 for FY2014, folks! How now?

Beware of the little expenses; a small leak will sink a great ship. Hahahahahahahahahah!!

This stock is on relentless tendency to regress towards its long-term mean. Probably below 0.70 in the making, folks! Careful now.

Hahahahahahahahahah!!

Folks, AirAsia and Lion Air account for most of the over 1,000 aircraft ordered by Southeast Asia ’s LCCs. This is a massive figure that would triple the size of the current fleet even after taking into account some replacements.

Major Southeast Asia’s LCC sector to grow to 27 carriers and about 570 aircraft by end 2014. Now the big question: Will more budget airlines defer aircraft orders amid the overcapacity in the region?

Remember folks, you don’t need to incur lots of risk in order to perform quite decently. Shares of stock lose value when company profits drop or investors believe that company future earnings will drop! Will the 1Q earnings be good, bad or ugly? Hahahahahahah!!

For one, the AirAsia Group has made the right move in slowing down expansion by deferring deliveries and selling aircraft while Tigerair Mandala and Jetstar Asia have also decided to take at least a one-year hiatus from expanding their fleets.

Now the big questions: Will there be growth in Airasia? Will AA weak Q4 results carry over into Q1FY14? Are you buying a disaster on its way down thinking you are averaging your costs?

Careful now, folks! Hahahahahahahah!!

Now folks, four budget airlines Thai AirAsia X, Thai VietJet Air, NokScoot, and Indonesia AirAsia X are expected to launch this year to beef up the existing 23 major LCCs in Southeast Asia regon.

Southeast Asia is still a market with huge opportunities for further LCC growth. But LCC capacity expansion has started to outstrip supply, perhaps necessitating a pause for breathing space.

Major players are expected to acquire 88 aircraft in 2014 despite a recent spate of delivery deferrals and suspensions of expansion thus leading to the current pressure on yields and load factors in the region.

Remember folks, the region’s LCC fleet grew by about 20% last year creating overcapacity in several Southeast Asian markets. This year targeted another 20% growth. How?

Will the rally for aviation continue? Careful now! Hahahahahahahah!!

While Southeast Asia generally remains a favorable market for LCCs, overcapacity could lead to some consolidation and reductions in the order book.

The major players in the industry include Lion Air, AirAsia, Cebu Air (Cebu Pacific), Thai AirAsia, Wings Air, TigerAir, Citilink, Indonesia AirAsia, Nok Air, Malindo Air, Jetstar Asia, AirAsia X, VietJet Air, Zest AirAsia, Thai Lion Air, TigerAir Mandala, Scoot, Jetstar Pacific, TigerAir Philippines, Golden Myanmar Airlines, Orient Thai Airlines, Philippines AirAsia, and ValueAir.

Now folks, are more deferrals needed among low cost carriers? Will AA weak Q4 results carry over into Q1FY14? Careful now, folks. Hahahahahahah!!

Folks, budget airlines in Southeast Asia consolidating further amid the deferral of orders by major airlines.

But folks, Southeast Asia’s low-cost carrier fleet is still projected to increase by nearly 20% in 2014 despite a recent spate of delivery deferrals and suspensions of expansion.

The region’s LCC fleet also grew by about 20% in 2013, creating overcapacity in several Southeast Asian markets and leading to the current pressure on yields and load factors.

So will the 1Q earnings be good, bad or ugly? Remember folks, if a business does well, the stock eventually follows but why is AA still a distance away from it historically high at rm4.00?

Careful now? Hahahahahahahah!!

Will the rally continue, folks? I'm ready for the perfect storm but what about you folks? Careful now!! Hahahahahahahahah!!

The Final countdown of market burst is happening(Malaysia. Must read folks: http://8yearsblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-final-countdown-of-market-burst-is.html

The Final countdown of market burst is happening(Malaysia)

Read more here: http://8yearsblog.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-final-countdown-of-market-burst-is.html

Are you ready for the perfect storm, folks? Careful now! Hahahahahahah!!

Will the 1QF14 earnings be good, bad or ugly, folks? Remember folks, weak ringgit is bad for AA & worse still VMY2014 has been suspended.

Investors have short memories!! Hahahahahahahahahah!!

Interest costs are also expected to rise in view of the substantial US dollar-denominated financial commitments. The same go for fuel cost, folks!

How?

Alliance Research expects the local airline industry to experience deteriorating financial performance this year as unit cost is expected to rise due to a weaker ringgit.

How about the 9% rise in landing charges from January, 9%-11% rise in airport passenger service charges in February and the 6% GST in Malaysia from April 2015?

Which charges is AAX thinking of passing on to its passengers? Or is it going to absorb all the charges? With the recent "Bull Trap," weak ringgit & extra charges, will 1QF14 be good, bad or ugly, folks?

Hahahahahahahahahhahahah!!

Investors have short memories!! hahahahahahahahhahahahaha!!

Now folks, how about the 9% rise in landing charges from January, 9%-11% rise in airport passenger service charges in February and the 6% GST in Malaysia from April 2015?

Which charges is AAX thinking of passing on to its passengers? Or is it going to absorb all the charges?

WIll 1Q be good, bad or ugly? Beware of the little expenses; a small leak will sink a great ship. Hahahahahahahahah!!

Alliance Research expects the local airline industry to experience deteriorating financial performance this year as unit cost is expected to rise due to a weaker ringgit.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm.......!! With the recent "Bull Trap," & now weak ringgit, will 1QF14 be good, bad or ugly, folks?

Investors have short memories!! hahahahahahahahhahahahaha!!

Investors to lose money in aircraft finance "bubble" - DVB Bank

While the aviation industry is likely to continue to see its strongest growth in Asia in the long term, investors should be prepared for setbacks.

Short-term demand could turn out to be lower than expected, which could force a rethink of orders placed for narrow body aircraft - such as Airbus' A320 and Boeing's B737.

How folks? Hahahahahahahahahah!!

AA will also likely incur higher interest costs in FY14 due to a weaker ringgit, its financial commitments are denominated in foreign currencies, predominantly dollar.

So the big question: will the weak 4Q carry over into 1QF14? Investors have short memories!! Careful now, folks!!

Hahahahahahahahahahh!!

Folks, AA will likely see its financial performance deteriorating in financial year 2014 as yields remain subpar while the weakening ringgit will lead to higher operating and finance costs.

Remember folks, the weak Q413 results will carry over into Q1FY14! How? Hehehehehehehehheeh!!

AirAsia X will also likely incur higher interest costs in FY14 due to a weaker ringgit, as 63% of its financial commitments are denominated in foreign currencies, predominantly dollar

Investors have short memories!! Wakakakakakakakakakakakaak!!

AirAsia X will likely see its financial performance deteriorating in financial year 2014 as yields remain subpar while the weakening ringgit will lead to higher operating and finance costs.

With the sucker rally recently will the rally continue? Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.

Hahahahahahahahah!!

Remember folks, the weak Q413 results will carry over into Q1FY14. Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing!

Hahahahahahahahahah!!

A bull trap, folks! Hahahahahahahaah!!

Will the sucker rally continue? Only when the tide goes out do we discover who's been swimming naked!

Hahahahahahahahaah!!

Folks, the continued fare war will adversely affect AAX‟s earnings and dampen investors sentiment on the stock.

AAX‟s yield was hit by fare dumping by MAS. Besides declining yield, AAX was hit with a double whammy of weakening RM against the US dollar which resulted in:
(i) foreign exchange losses of RM112.4m on borrowings; and
(ii) increased operating expenses as 65% of costs are exposed to USD.

So the big question: Will weak Q4 results carry over into Q1FY14? Careful now folks as a little expenses can sink a GREAT ship!! Hahahahahahahahahah!!

Remember folks, never fall in love with a stock as its not going to be a faithful & loyal lover.

The truth hurts, folks! Heheheheheheheehh!!

AAX is expected to add capacity by a whopping 72% y-o-y in 1QFY14, followed by 60%, 42% and 28% y-o-y in 2Q, 3Q and 4Q respectively.

All in, AAX capacity is expected to increase by 47.7% in FY14. As such, yields to remain weak throughout FY14, as it will take at least couple of quarters for market to absorb the additional capacity.

The management plans to cut fare in order to stimulate demand as it sought to maintain load factor at above 82%. How folks? Hahahahahahahah!!

Folks, AAX’s FY13 core net profit of RM21.6m was significantly below expectations, as it was dragged by the poor performance of the Australian, Maldives and Jeddah routes.

The Maldives and Jeddah routes has already been axed. Despite so, yields will remain weak throughout FY14 given the aggressive capacity addition, higher forex rate and start-up losses from its associates.

So the big question: Will weak Q4 results carry over into Q1FY14? Investors have short memories!! How? Hahahahahahahahahah!!

Will the rally continue? Will the critical support level at 2.40 hold? Investors have short mmories!!

Hahahahahahahahahahah!!

Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks!

The truth hurts, folks! Hahahahahahahah!!

Will the sucker rally continue? Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing!

Wakakakakakakkakakak!!

Will the rally continue? Only when the tide goes out do we discover who's been swimming naked!

Wakakakakkakakakakkakaka!!

Investors become emotionally attached to a stock and overlook the company's shortcomings. Whatever the reason loving a stock, separate your emotions from the hard reality that it may be time to sell.

Just a sucker rally & bull trap folks! The truth hurts!! Hahahahahahahahahahahah!!

Investors have short memories!! Little expenses can sink a great ship!! Hahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!

AirAsia is facing heavy competition, and it might not be able to pass on to passengers:

1. The 9% rise in landing charges from January 2014.

2. The upcoming 9%-11% rise in airport passenger service charges in February 2014.

3. The 6% GST in Malaysia from April 2015.

So the big question: Will weak Q4 results carry over into Q1FY14? The truth hurts, folks! Hahahahahahahahahaha!!

Anyone sucked into the "Sucker's Rally"?

Hahahahahahahahahahaha...Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing! How now, folks?

Dare to buy at the current price, folks? Remember folks, AA management concedes that it would likely not undertake any share buy-back this year, given its preference to conserve cash.

But why? Knowing 2014 & 2015 will be a difficult year? So the big question: Will the rally continue?

Hmmmmmmmmm........!!

Beware of the "Sucker's Rally", folks!

Don't be sucked up by a temporary rise in a specific stock or the market as a whole. A sucker rally occurs with little fundamental information to back the movement in price.

Sucker's rally aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise. This rally may continue just long enough for the "suckers" to get on board, after which the market or specific stock falls.

Careful now folks!! Hahahahahahahah!!

Remember folks, Airasia trying their best to conserve cash by selling 6 existing aircraft & reduce cost by deferring 19 aircraft deliveries!

The management also would likely not undertake any share buy-back this year, given its preference to conserve cash.

So how about 141m for dividend? Hmmmmmmm......Time will tell!

Folks, as announced Airasia has a dividend policy of 20% its net operating profit. For FY13 AA net operating profit was at 705m & as such the dividend payout should be a staggering Rm141m!

But folks, AA profit after tax (PAT) for FY2013 was at rm364m only. \

So the big question: will Airasia practice what it preach on 20% dividend policy? Remember folks, paying less than 20% will cause another sell off by local & foreign funds!

Are you ready for the perfect storm, folks? Careful now! Hahahahahahahah!!

Remember folks, shares of stock lose value when company profits drop or investors believe that company future profits will drop!

So how now, folks......Buy, Sell or Hold? Hahahahahahahahahah!!